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FSG's focus on young signings - is it fatally flawed?

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peterhague

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[article]It is as if time itself is enjoying a joke at Liverpool’s expense. As the debris was being cleared on the club’s worst defeat in 52 years, the tenth anniversary of the club’s Champions League ‘miracle’ in Istanbul was celebrated.

Brendan Rodgers may be inclined to nick an image from that night as he assesses his own situation. At full-time on Sunday, he must have felt like he was 3-0 down at half time to a side including Pirlo, Kaka, Maldini and Shevchenko.
Just like that momentous evening in the Ataturk, Rodgers must also believe a comeback is possible.

It was another day of introspection at Anfield – they seem to average one a week in modern times – but Liverpool remain adamant the upcoming internal review into the events of this season will not focus on Rodgers’ position.
“Not on the agenda,” is the official line on it.
Something may be about to change at the club – it really has to – but according to the club, not the manager, not the recruitment staff and not with the introduction of a director of football. One wonders what exactly the review will entail. The seating arrangements and ticket prices for next year’s club end-of-season awards, perhaps?

Steven Gerrard and Rafa Benitez lift the European Cup in 2005
There will be a degree of incredulity at the suggestion the status quo remains intact from those who witnessed the first-half humiliation in the Britannia Stadium. The cynical view is this is pure story management – an attempt to steer the focus away from any pre-determined desire to dismiss Rodgers.
He may be safe going into his assessment of the season, but will the sirens go off during the course of the conversation and the ground shift as he leaves the room?

That said, given Rodgers has already had a preliminary chat and his working relationship with Fenway Sports Group President Michael Gordon is strong, his “150 per cent” sureness can be understood.
If his conviction proves justified, attention will turn swiftly to Fenway Sports Group and Gordon himself. Without the hint of any inaugural address, he slipped into the FSG presidency at the start of the season. We must stop seeing John W Henry as the all-consuming influence on Anfield affairs. So long as Rodgers has the trust of Gordon, he is safe.

Brendan Rodgers faces a crunch meeting with FSG's representative
There is one caveat, however. Rodgers must still be aligned to the club’s ‘model’.
Herein lies the crux of the issue. It is all about ‘the model’ at Anfield, with the employees signing up to it. It is referred to so often one often wonders if Anfield has been ambushed by an offspring of the church of scientology, or if staff gather to worship before it like the black monolith in “2001: A Space Odyssey”.
There are numerous elements to ‘the model’, but the main one is about "being smart". "Smartness" defines everything, particularly in recruitment. Upon buying Liverpool five years ago it was suggested to John Henry that rather than spending £40 million on well-established, proven world-class international footballers, it might be wiser to find these players before they become world-class. That is when they are cheaper.

It is not known whether anyone shouted "Eureka!" when this idea was proposed. Certainly no one seems to have piped up that everyone else had been trying to do the same thing, with varying degrees of success, since the first transfer fee was dispatched by carrier pigeon. Nor has anyone pointed out that, in all probability, all the best young players are already owned by Chelsea and have been turfed out on loan across Europe.
More worryingly, it does not seem to have occurred to anyone that if you have £115 million to spend and opt to target younger, cheaper players instead of expensive world-class ones, you are electing to operate in the same transfer zone as mid-table rather than elite clubs. The risk of becoming a mid-table team is just as likely as that of plucking the bargain gems that escaped the attention of the established Champions League clubs. Liverpool’s performance at Stoke suggested that this team is heading only one way unless they sign five top-class players.

It rather feels like Liverpool have become a multi-million pound laboratory experiment, big on theory but light on success. Liverpool fans want ready-made winners. FSG want to create them.
That is why those casually dropping the names of Jürgen Klopp and Carlo Ancelotti into chatroom and social-media conversations are demanding FSG abandon everything they have been doing for the last five years.

The last three Liverpool managerial appointments came from Fulham (before FSG took over), the legends’ lounge and Swansea City.
If Rodgers does not mount the greatest Liverpool comeback since Turkey in 2005, the repercussions for his career will be grave. But regardless of what happens to him, it is Liverpool and their owners who must prove their way will revive the status of the club, or ensure that only the reminders of former glories are left for supporters to cling on to.
[/article]


This article just out from Bascombe in the Telegraph. I must have read half a dozen such pieces in the last couple of days from the usual LFC commentators. It seems the verdict is in: the 'model' is self-defeating and retrograde.

Personally I disagree, and there's loads more I could say in response to particular points. My basic feeling is that getting players at say under 23 opens up a higher pedigree of player than we could normally target; they're cheaper; you get more out of them; it's relatively easy to predict genuine class by the time a player's around 19-20. It's a model you can sustain indefinitely: as they age they gain experience, and younger investments gradually take over from retiring players, on something like a rolling 7-8 year cycle. The only additional measure required is probably going to be an initial supplement of older more experienced players: a kind of 'float' of experience.


Who's right? Is it a small time and defeatist approach? Or a potentially winning strategy?
 
No, its not fatally flawed.

It just needs the right people identifying and evaluating the players.

And the manager needs to be told if he doesn't develop them he gets the boot
 
The worst signings this season were all experienced proven players - Balotelli, Lallana, Di Maria, Falcao.

But i don't necessarily agree that young players are cheaper nowadays - plenty of clubs have focused on getting the young talent earlier. Particularly the English ones.

Shaw - 30m, Sterling at whatever he's being quoted. Henderson at 20m.

There was a time when that might have been a market inefficiency but it might not be anymore
 
I agree with that. There's nothing set in stone, it's just supply and demand.

What you're really looking for is a good annual cost in terms of fees. Until now the best way to ensure that was to look at young players with loads of years left. But it could equally be older players with disproportionately low fees. Or anything in between.
 
A further argument in favour of signing younger players is they are less likely to be injury prone between the ages of 21-26. They've achieved maximum growth and they haven't played a huge amount of high level football at this time so their bodies aren't on the brink.
 
There are still cheap young talented players. They are just harder to find as they play in the poorer countries. Obviously, we don't go for those players or pay enough in wages to get them quick enough. Or whatever it is. If the model is well run it is obviously the better model. I do wonder if there is enough talent in Liverpool and the surrounding areas because thats how you would get it the cheapest.
 
If we keep developing them but they then fuck off somewhere better, then yes.


I think this is the real issue. It's not all about identification and development, there doesn't seem to be a 'model' for keeping our best players. If we don't want to pay large transfer fees then we must pay the best wages to deter poachers.
 
I think this is the real issue. It's not all about identification and development, there doesn't seem to be a 'model' for keeping our best players. If we don't want to pay large transfer fees then we must pay the best wages to deter poachers.


You saw the same thing with Arsenal when they were paying off their stadium. Even though they were regularly in the European Cup they weren't showing any real ambition to challenge for either that or the league title and players such as Fabregas and Van Persie wanted out as a result.

The lack of ambition is part of the problem - I agree that paying more would help keep players but we aren't showing the ambition that would also help. We finished 2nd last season and the goal for this season? Top Four. That's regression. We finished ahead of Arsenal, Chelsea and Man Utd last season and did we sign a single player of a level who would improve any of their teams? No. That's regression. And that might convince young players that Liverpool might be a decent place to play relatively high level football whilst they develop, they'll be off as soon as a club with bigger ambitions come sniffing around.

FSG's focus on young players is part and parcel of their focus in general which is about achieving a top four finish and anything else is a bonus.
 
It's but one of many things FSG do that, in essence, aren't that different from what the club used to do. I think they dazzle themselves with their own hype. If you look back to the days of Shanks through to Dalglish, the focus was ALWAYS on buying young players. It was a rarity for any of those managers to buy a player aged over about 24. The policy was mainly to recruit local youngsters and buy young lower league players, school them in the reserves for two or three years, then bring the most promising of them into the first team. Look at some of the best of them:

Keegan: signed when he was 20.
Clemence: 19.
Toshack: 21
McDermott: 23
Hughes: 20
Ray Kennedy: 23
Jamie Redknapp: 18
Joey Jones: 20
Alun Evans: 19
Steve Nicol: 20
Steve Staunton: 17
Ian Rush: 19
Ian St John: 23
Burrows: 20
Ronnie Whelan: 18
Alan Hansen: 22
Jan Molby: 21

Add to that a mass of players who either came up from youth level or joined from elsewhere straight from school.

I think the average age of the 1977 European Cup winning team was about 25, and that was including the veterans Callaghan and Smith. The average age of the team that won our last trophy was about 26. (By the way: the average age of the team that got thumped by Stoke was 26.)

Even when Kenny moved to beef up a settled side with great attacking talents, he didn't really deviate: Barnes was 24. Beardsley and Aldo were slight exceptions to the rule, but even Beardo was only 26.

So that age range really isn't different from FSG's signings. Although you'd think from all the bells and whistles that, yet again, it's an aspect that they've revolutionised with all of their machines that go 'beep'.

The only real difference was that these managers wouldn't hesitate to bring in an older player if he was a tried and tested talent and really looked set to push the team on at a key time. So Paisley bought Dalglish (aged 26) and Souness (25) and Kenny bought Aldo (28).

It was broadly the same with Houllier and Benitez. There never was some weird 'let's mainly buy older players' policy that required radical dismantling by Boston's brave modernists. There just wasn't lazy dogmatism. Until now.

So that's one of the things that gets me about FSG. A lot of smoke and mirrors to disguise how unoriginal they actually are. The policy is fine. It's the rigidity, the naive stubbornness, that's the problem. Previously we reacted to circumstances and made judicious decisions. Now we stick slavishly to the sacred system, only to crack every now and again like a Graham Greene whisky priest and buy a Lambert or a Balotelli.
 
You saw the same thing with Arsenal when they were paying off their stadium. Even though they were regularly in the European Cup they weren't showing any real ambition to challenge for either that or the league title and players such as Fabregas and Van Persie wanted out as a result.

The lack of ambition is part of the problem - I agree that paying more would help keep players but we aren't showing the ambition that would also help. We finished 2nd last season and the goal for this season? Top Four. That's regression. We finished ahead of Arsenal, Chelsea and Man Utd last season and did we sign a single player of a level who would improve any of their teams? No. That's regression. And that might convince young players that Liverpool might be a decent place to play relatively high level football whilst they develop, they'll be off as soon as a club with bigger ambitions come sniffing around.

FSG's focus on young players is part and parcel of their focus in general which is about achieving a top four finish and anything else is a bonus.


I don't think it's necessarily redolent of a lack of ambition. It's not just Arsenal who've done it: Chelsea have largely built their excellent new side on the back of such a policy.

I think it's only in retrospect that you can say that players like Moreno and Markovic look like unambitious signings who wouldn't trouble Utd's first XI. At the time of signing they were among the most well regarded young players in their positions in Europe.
 
I don't think it's necessarily redolent of a lack of ambition. It's not just Arsenal who've done it: Chelsea have largely built their excellent new side on the back of such a policy.

I think it's only in retrospect that you can say that players like Moreno and Markovic look like unambitious signings who wouldn't trouble Utd's first XI. At the time of signing they were among the most well regarded young players in their positions in Europe.


It may not be but it's easy for players to perceive it as such. Markovic and Moreno may well have all the promise in the world but they're not proven first team players - it would be unfair to expect players of that age/experience - unless they're phenomenal - to come in and immediately improve the first team. Compare this to the signings the current top four made - Costa/Fabregas, Alexis Sanchez, Di Maria/Falcao - admittedly Man City didn't sign a world beater but they have a squad of them anyway - and you can see why players might look at our rivals and note a lack of ambition relative to both them and our finishing position last year. Add in Suarez leaving.
 
It may not be but it's easy for players to perceive it as such. Markovic and Moreno may well have all the promise in the world but they're not proven first team players - it would be unfair to expect players of that age/experience - unless they're phenomenal - to come in and immediately improve the first team. Compare this to the signings the current top four made - Costa/Fabregas, Alexis Sanchez, Di Maria/Falcao - admittedly Man City didn't sign a world beater but they have a squad of them anyway - and you can see why players might look at our rivals and note a lack of ambition relative to both them and our finishing position last year. Add in Suarez leaving.


I think it might well deter players you don't actually want to sign - those who expect immediate success. Of course immediate success is desirable in itself, but probably unachievable on our budget, and so signing players who demand that will likely only be counter-productive.

But I don't really see why it should deter the sort of players the strategy requires: high quality younger players who are willing to wait 2-3 years for the team to mature.
 
It's the right approach but flawed to an extent because everyone is doing it now, which makes it very difficult to execute perfectly.

The 14-18 year old market is contested fiercely and the likes of Chelsea are hoovering up the best of the best so you're often left to fight over the riskier propositions whilst still probably paying top whack.

When it comes to buying players under 21 who've already gotten their big break then you're often hitting the sort of transfer fee and wages that established players command so you're buying big in the hope that your investment goes up and you get more out of it rather than buying cheap like perhaps you used to be able to.

Another issue is that the S.American market is difficult to tap into because of permit issues and you need arrangements with other clubs to get around this. Again, Chelsea have been very very good at setting this up and you can City starting to build up partnerships too.

The bottom line is that we're pretty much reliant on a) getting in a visionary who can spot talent and make it all work and b) bringing in talent on the basis that we're a stepping stone (at least in the interim).
 
It's difficult to get the two hand in hand though. There aren't many managers who are great at spotting kids at a bargain AND who also happen to be great tacticians.
 
It's the right approach but flawed to an extent because everyone is doing it now, which makes it very difficult to execute perfectly.


That's why we need to keep one eye on the issue that Ross raised that the drive for young players might be making them less good value.

Certainly if some of the mooted fees for guys like Illarramendi and Pedro are even vaguely true then this might already be happening. £10m for Illarramendi seems absurdly low to me, if he's as good as people say.
 
That's why we need to keep one eye on the issue that Ross raised that the drive for young players might be making them less good value.

Certainly if some of the mooted fees for guys like Illarramendi and Pedro are even vaguely true then this might already be happening. £10m for Illarramendi seems absurdly low to me, if he's as good as people say.

I agree. I don't think we can compete at the top end of the youngsters market any more than we can at the top end of the established market.

The situations you raised are good examples but worth noting that we tried that last year with Sanchez and failed. A key concern I have is that we seem to be struggling to sell ourselves and if that is the case it doesn't matter how good the strategy is.
 
We need to go backwards in order to go forwards. Our best teams had top-class experienced players and a new generation pushing through. Our current side is mainly inexperienced kids. We have to add three experienced, major players to give the team some balance and a bit of street-smart wisdom. But as I said, there's nothing wrong in principle with what they're doing so long as they accommodate that willingness to go for the odd star. Then there needs to be a much greater emphasis in the academy and reserves with inculcating a sense of urgency: too many kids come in and, if anything, take their foot off the gas once they start, instead of acquiring a tunnel vision sense of determination to make it. Year after year they're still there, going through the motions, tikking and takking to no great purpose, swanning off after sloppy defeats and error-prone performances. We need to push them much more.
 
I think it might well deter players you don't actually want to sign - those who expect immediate success. Of course immediate success is desirable in itself, but probably unachievable on our budget, and so signing players who demand that will likely only be counter-productive.

But I don't really see why it should deter the sort of players the strategy requires: high quality younger players who are willing to wait 2-3 years for the team to mature.


I was talking more about keeping hold of players. I agree in that it might get us in the high quality younger players, but it'll be difficult to keep them if they have a decent spell of form and a bigger club comes in.
 
Possibly. I think this Sterling thing has knocked a lot of people for six. I really don't think he should be seen as typical.

IMO it's much more likely a player will give at least 3 or 4 years' grace before they're fed up with a lack of progress.
 
There's going to be a tough period at the start of switching to this model, especially tough if we sell/lose our best/most experienced players. Plus we don't even know if the pre-star players we bought will be any good yet.

Like @peterhague said, we need to supplement the model with top players in the meantime.
 
I don't quite know why my point above was ignored, but this 'model' is barely coherent as it is.
 
If we signing the best young players then this strategy could work.

However, we seem to target the level just below **top class** even for younger players probably because they dont ask for high wages.

We were not inrtested in deepay as we have 4 wingers (BR quote) but now seem close to a deal for this Salvio.
 
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