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Muddled thinking

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rurikbird

Part of the Furniture
Honorary Member
I don't quite know what to think or what's going on, but it seems to me that the biggest thing lacking this transfer summer was clarity of thinking from those in charge. Many point fingers at Michael Edwards, who is in his first year of a job that he apparently wasn't adequately prepared for by his previous career as an analyst, but I think Klopp and his team can't be completely excused either, since many of these are football decisions where he must be the one in charge. Here's my list of this summer's team-building mistakes that could have been avoided with a bit of planning and common sense:
  1. Obviously, the VVD and Keita non-transfers and failure to find alternatives. Maybe it was just bad luck that just as we had CL and money to spend, the transfer landscape changed right under our feet and a few clubs that were previously (with good justification) classified as "selling clubs" suddenly decided to make a principled stand, holding on to their best assets no matter how much we offered. But isn't that the job of a chief executive to follow and even anticipate market trends and have a clear understanding of what's realistic right now? It seems our whole strategy has been based on getting our top defensive and midfield targets signed, with not much thought given to alternatives; the failure to do so (at least so far) has ricocheted around the squad, leading to a domino effect of imperfect compromises in other areas.

  2. Speaking of that, I really cannot get myself over the left-back debacle. Nobody will convince me it was always the plan to a) move Milner back to midfield, b) put faith back in Moreno as the starting LB and c) buy Robertson. Well, I think Robertson was part of the plan – plan C, to be exact. We were "keeping him on a back burner" for a while, clearly waiting for something else to fall into place and finally making the decision after other options were gone. This is not to be harsh on Robertson – if there is one thing I know about Klopp is that he doesn't sign players without real upside (even as 2nd-3rd-4th choice), he clearly sees him as someone with potential to be coached into a good player. The problem is not Robertson, but the situation he's been placed into where instead of backing up Milner, he is now competing with similarly defensively challenged Moreno, which drags the quality of our whole team down from a year ago when Milner was mostly excellent at LB.

    All of this could have been avoided if we simply signed Kolasinac on a free early in the window – a player Klopp clearly rated (otherwise we would not have been strongly linked with him for several months), who would have surely chosen us over Arsenal had we showed serious interest when it mattered and who having just turned 24 could have solved our chronic LB problem for many years to come (and helped with a few more issues, such as lack of fight/physicality/height on set-pieces). This is where I return to the theme of muddled thinking and where I think Klopp has to be at fault – no matter his justifiable feelings of loyalty to Milner for being such a model pro, it's simply bad planning to forgo signing a specialist first-team quality player, one entering his prime and on a free, in order to "protect" one who is playing at LB by necessity, can be easily used in other positions and is also getting on in years. Now that Milner is back in midfield, again by necessity, how much more secure would we be with a genuine top-class LB in the team rather than the Moreno/Robertson "let's hope they can learn some basic defensive skills quickly" combo? But we waited and dragged our feet until all genuinely good options were gone. To add insult to injury, our main top-4 rivals Arsenal are now stronger for it.

  3. Lack of investment in strikers. If we were prepared to spend £60M+ on Keita, but that fell through – why were there no plans to immediately divert that money to signing a top-class centre-forward? Several were (or still are) available – Morata went for under £70M, Aubameyang was reportedly available for around the same money, Diego Costa is definitely for sale (not sure he would be so interested to come here, but maybe Chelsea would find a way to convince him if our offer was significantly larger than Atletico's), Lacazette went for what now seems like a bargain £45M.

    Again, if we have the money and the CL to attract such players, what's holding us back – a debt of loyalty to Firmino? Similarly to situation with Milner – we seem to be holding back from buying a specialist in this position to accommodate someone who has been moved there initially by necessity and can be useful in a variety of roles, which means it would be a case of addition rather than replacement – I can very well imagine Firmino playing 2nd striker to Aubameyang, for example. Or is it loyalty to Sturridge, who frankly in Klopp's time here has not done much to deserve loyalty from the manager, clearly doesn't fit into Klopp's system as the #9 and even if he did can't be relied upon for the whole season due to fitness concerns? More muddled thinking, I'm afraid. Maybe I would have given this more benefit of a doubt if not for the other debacles, which taught me that the most likely answer to most of our transfer concerns is "they simply don't know what they are doing."

  4. Final example. Emre Can is close to leaving on a free next season or being sold on the cheap this summer, further weakening our already depleted midfield. The main sticking point for Can in signing his contract, as he stated many times, is the promise of consistent playing time in his favored position – the DM. Klopp likes him at the DM and plays him there every time Hendo is not available (which lately has been pretty often), but Can, being quite ambitious, wants to ensure he will spend the next few years of his career at a team where he is first choice and where his remarkable versatility isn't used to relegate him to the role of "plugging holes" (this is a common concern for versatile players; Milner was going through the same issues throughout his career).

    Well, unlike some other posters, I don't mind Henderson at DM – but he has a big problem with a chronic heel injury. Just yesterday you could again see reduced mobility and passing accuracy and then he was substituted with the game in balance – all apparently because something was not physically right. Can then slotted in at DM and our midfield cohesion improved, soon after we scored the 2nd and could have put the game to bed. This might be controversial, but I believe that so long as Hendo's problem doesn't seem to be fully curable, it's simply bad planning to designate him as the undisputed starter in this position, which could very well lead to us losing Can. After all Hendo is less of a natural DM than Can, his qualities can translate to many positions and while it would be somewhat unfair to him to make him "plug the holes," I'm afraid that's what you get when you have injury issues. I can compare this to Sven Bender at Dortmund (now Bayer) who also was an undisputed starter and one of the stars of that team, but after a string of injuries became a make-shift CB/DM/CM. Klopp needs to make a difficult choice and I think the right choice is to go with Can, to build around him if in return he signs a new contract. This might still happen, but I'm getting worried that we might well lose one of our most talented and mentally strong players due to more muddled thinking.
 
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It's a good post, although concluding muddled thinking from a number of presumptions is always likely to leave you prone to confirmation bias. We just don't, for example, know enough about the transfer negotiations to make sound judgements at this stage. After several years of moaning about moving too readily from first choice options to second, third, fourth or worse options, it's a bit rich for us now to talk about any 'failure' to 'find' alternatives. For one thing, we had more money to pursue first choices this time around, and those negotiations are not completely dead, so it would be questionable to say the least if we bought second choices in the meantime. Edwards has been very poor, and personally I'm not in a mood to deflect any bit of blame away from him. There's still a tiny bit of time, but he needs to use it.

The left back situation is indeed a shambles, although there we did identify an alternative and got him. He needs to get up to speed with our style of play, although even now I'd favour him over that fool Moreno.
 
I think part of out issue in getting targets has been we aren't actually in the champions league and we do not consistently get into it.

Klopp may have 2nd to 4th choice players but when sounded out we were turned down because of the reasons above. With a VVD and Keita we have had positive responses from the players or agents.

Should we get through next week then it could be a case of pieces falling into place and we make 3 signings.

Can is a strange one. He's clearly a first team player and apparently money isn't the issue. He might wait be waiting to see how we perform as a team. If we continue on an upwards trajectory then he will sign. If we end up going backwards he'll move on.
 
It's a good post, although concluding muddled thinking from a number of presumptions is always likely to leave you prone to confirmation bias. We just don't, for example, know enough about the transfer negotiations to make sound judgements at this stage. After several years of moaning about moving too readily from first choice options to second, third, fourth or worse options, it's a bit rich for us now to talk about any 'failure' to 'find' alternatives. For one thing, we had more money to pursue first choices this time around, and those negotiations are not completely dead, so it would be questionable to say the least if we bought second choices in the meantime. Edwards has been very poor, and personally I'm not in a mood to deflect any bit of blame away from him. There's still a tiny bit of time, but he needs to use it.

I agree with that, actually. I'm basing this post on the assumption that VVD and Keita deals are dead and no comparable alternatives are signed in this transfer window – if it proves to be not the case, I'll very happily admit I was wrong and read too much from imperfect information. Also I think it's not much up to debate at this point that somewhere our transfer team has made a royal mess of things this summer. So you could say the conclusion about "muddled thinking" is right, even if perhaps I didn't understand the underlying logic of these mistakes correctly.
 
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It didn't help that the sources/media 'close' to the club were so proud to claim in May that this window was going to be one where FSG will splash the cash and spend 100m+ on 5-6 players.
 
Without going too much into this I think it's obvious to see that in general it's a very difficult transfer market to navigate.

Chelsea's Conte seems pretty desperate by their lack of signings, as does Pochettino I guess. Heck, even Barcelona at this points, looks to be sore losers in this game.

Not trying to absorb blame from whomever is in charge, but I do believe we should at the very least recognize, that not even bucket loads of money this time around are any certainty that you will get your preferred targets.

My only real critic thus far is.. why in the living fuck haven't we signed Dolberg yet? Available in the £30M region which truly is peanuts in this market. Would be an instant upgrade if not on Firmino then at least Origi. Him, Solanke and Sturridge, would be a nice trio of attacking talent to keep us sharp. One awesome season from Dolberg in a stronger league than the Dutch and he'd be worth £100M.. we simply cannot afford to not buy him. Now.
 
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You would certainly have thought that FSG would have learned from the debacle of Ed Woodward's first couple of years at the mancs, when he messed up one transfer after another. Of course, you have to start from somewhere, and any new person in charge of transfer negotiations is going to find it a challenge, but it wasn't as if there weren't lots of lessons there to be learned from past examples. This was a crucial transfer window, and it simply wasn't the one for an apprentice to just work it out as he went along. Edwards needed help and advice.
 
I'll start with a quote from Klopp on who calls the shots on transfers:

“The work with Michael together was brilliant, full of faith, trust, all that you need. Transfers are going always the same way.

“The style maybe is different because it's possible whoever brings the player on the table, if it's me, my assistant, Michael, scouting department, we have a lot of things to watch and talk about.
And in the end I will always have the final say, maybe that's the most important thing for you to know.

“If something is wrong, was wrong or will be wrong in the future with transfers it's my responsibility.”

So Klopp decided he wanted VVD despite Southampton having a lot of leverage with the new contract. And Klopp's meeting with VVD infuriated Southampton and made that deal even more difficult.

Keita - i don't think anybody anticipated Leipzig's resistance and thats a target we do have some leverage on because of the release clause. It happens and i'm not really of a mind to blame anyone.

The Lovren contract is the one that baffles me the most.

Regarding Milner - he arrived here having been promised he'd be playing in the middle. I'm guessing Klopp convinced him to play left back for one season and one season only. If thats the case i'm fine with Klopp sticking to his word. I'm less fine with the left back options being Moreno and Robertson.

The striker situation - if he wants to play Firmino as a false 9 with Salah and Mane creating havoc thats fine. Solanke looks promising and we'll have Sturridge for parts of the season. Origi exists.

For me the structure at the club is wrong and thats the root cause of the muddled thinking.

I think there is plenty of blame to go around, it starts with FSG.
They've flopped on their preferred set up , abandoning the DOF role because had tge wrong person and in order to hire Rodgers. I think we can see the lack of wisdom in that already.
For me it needs to be FSG advising in the budgets, the goals and the general ethos the club should espouse.

A DOF should be in charge of the football side of things. With a sizeable staff assisting him.

Scouting, transfers, youth development. Planning the squad needs over the medium and long term. Trying to ensure long term sustainable success.

The manager - manages the day to day with the squad. Training, tactics etc. Responsible for winning today.
Has input into what he thinks the squad needs but ultimately its a DOF decision.

I think that would bring us clarity. Having the manager crossing into the DOF territory inevitably causes problems, there's a conflict between the two roles and a huge workload associated with both. Too much for any one man.
 
I'll tell you what's muddled thinking - having jettisoned that dimwit Moreno to the bench all last season and now having him as first choice left back ahead of Milner
 
I'll start with a quote from Klopp on who calls the shots on transfers:



So Klopp decided he wanted VVD despite Southampton having a lot of leverage with the new contract. And Klopp's meeting with VVD infuriated Southampton and made that deal even more difficult.

Keita - i don't think anybody anticipated Leipzig's resistance and thats a target we do have some leverage on because of the release clause. It happens and i'm not really of a mind to blame anyone.

The Lovren contract is the one that baffles me the most.

Regarding Milner - he arrived here having been promised he'd be playing in the middle. I'm guessing Klopp convinced him to play left back for one season and one season only. If thats the case i'm fine with Klopp sticking to his word. I'm less fine with the left back options being Moreno and Robertson.

The striker situation - if he wants to play Firmino as a false 9 with Salah and Mane creating havoc thats fine. Solanke looks promising and we'll have Sturridge for parts of the season. Origi exists.

For me the structure at the club is wrong and thats the root cause of the muddled thinking.

I think there is plenty of blame to go around, it starts with FSG.
They've flopped on their preferred set up , abandoning the DOF role because had tge wrong person and in order to hire Rodgers. I think we can see the lack of wisdom in that already.
For me it needs to be FSG advising in the budgets, the goals and the general ethos the club should espouse.

A DOF should be in charge of the football side of things. With a sizeable staff assisting him.

Scouting, transfers, youth development. Planning the squad needs over the medium and long term. Trying to ensure long term sustainable success.

The manager - manages the day to day with the squad. Training, tactics etc. Responsible for winning today.
Has input into what he thinks the squad needs but ultimately its a DOF decision.

I think that would bring us clarity. Having the manager crossing into the DOF territory inevitably causes problems, there's a conflict between the two roles and a huge workload associated with both. Too much for any one man.
True. Only if we could get a bonafied DOF in though. Don't want the one like last time screwing up options for the manager.
And I also do believe that the manager has to have input on transfers. Whether it's the initial strategy or looking at specific players each time, I don't know.
 
How many transfer windows does Klopp need to address the glaring failures we have.

He thinks he can coach (rubbish) players and make them into world beaters. Continually backing a dead horse (moreno / lovren) shows a lack of judgement which is worrying.
 
I am 100% convinced that Aug 31 will be a mad day for us with Keita, VVD and a top left back joining and Moreno leaving.
 
True. Only if we could get a bonafied DOF in though. Don't want the one like last time screwing up options for the manager.
And I also do believe that the manager has to have input on transfers. Whether it's the initial strategy or looking at specific players each time, I don't know.

In a well functioning system he would have, the DOF and manager work together but ultimately the DOF is the boss.
 
...............The manager - manages the day to day with the squad. Training, tactics etc. Responsible for winning today.
Has input into what he thinks the squad needs but ultimately its a DOF decision.

I think that would bring us clarity. Having the manager crossing into the DOF territory inevitably causes problems, there's a conflict between the two roles and a huge workload associated with both. Too much for any one man.
Agree with everything in your post except this bit quoted.

It simply doesn't seem right to give the ultimate responsibility for which players are brought into the club to a DOF when the blame or otherwise will be rested on the manager's shoulders. The DOF can run the scouting team and suggest players based on their reports however the final decision on who we sign, or don't, must be given to the manager. What that actually requires is very close cooperation and agreement between the two .... and that's inevitably where it falls down given you likely have two strong, opinionated, men flexing their corporate muscles.
 
I'll tell you what's muddled thinking - having jettisoned that dimwit Moreno to the bench all last season and now having him as first choice left back ahead of Milner
Or Robertson, who looked better than Moreno even when they were both sitting on the bench.
 
And things aren't going to get easier as the transfer window closure gets nearer... ...

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/aug/16/fall-pound-tottenham-davinson-sanchez-ajax
[article]Premier League clubs are facing demands for ever higher transfer fees and for players’ wages to be paid in euros because of the collapse in the value of the pound since the Brexit vote.

As sterling fell this week to its lowest value since Britain emerged from the financial crash, the consequences for top-flight clubs have been laid bare by the ongoing haggling over the future of Ajax’s Davinson Sánchez.

The Dutch newspaper De Telegraaf reports that as negotiations between Tottenham and Ajax have dragged on over the 21-year-old defender, Ajax have been insisting on increasing their asking price to reflect the day-by-day fall in the value of the pound.

The newspaper reports: “Spurs will have to pay more by the day. Compared with the end of the previous season, the pound is 6% lower. On the sum that Ajax want (€50m), that’s already a difference of €3m. And the expectation is that the free fall will not stop.”

It is claimed by the newspaper that because of this “complication”, Tottenham are seeking to speed up the signing of the Colombian international, but that Ajax are happy to slow the pace of negotiations down, with Chelsea and Real Madrid showing some interest. Officials from Tottenham were said to be in Amsterdam on Monday.

The De Telegraaf article further reports that Dutch players already in the Premier League have been detrimentally impacted by the fall in the pound against the euro. “Players who have put their salary in pounds may end up earning maybe 10% less”, the paper said. To avoid a salary cut, it is claimed Dutch players are increasingly insisting on their salaries being paid in euros.

On Tuesday, a pound bought only €1.0954, an eight-year low. The last time a pound bought so few euros was in October 2009 when the UK economy had recently emerged from one of the deepest recessions in its history. Last week Morgan Stanley analysts forecast that by early 2018 the currency could fall below parity for the first time.

One positive for clubs who do well in Europe, however, is the pound’s collapse has made winning euros in competitions all the more valuable. In 2016 Manchester City, who reached the semi-finals of the Champions League, earned €83.8m from Uefa in prize money.

Before the referendum in June last year, the football industry voiced its concerns about the impact of Brexit on the Premier League.

Following the result, the Arsenal manager, Arseène Wenger, said he feared the game in England would suffer lasting damage. “It worries me, it shocks me too,” the Frenchman said. “Nobody knows how exactly this is going to translate into a practical plan. Nobody really knows where we are going. The players will see their wages come down a bit and the competition with Germany, for example, will be stronger.”[/article]
 
The truly worrying aspect of it is that FSG don't seem to be learning from past mistakes.

We had a year to prepare for Suarez leaving and the result was a panicked last minute deal for Balotelli of all players. I don't think I'll ever be able to get my head around that.

I can't claim to really know what goes on behind the scenes, how much influence Edwards has or Klopp or what the new CEO does but from the outside it doesn't feel like it's working.

To echo what Ross and Binny have said in this thread and others, I'd love to see us go all out on putting a top class operation in place headed up by the best DoF we can get.

FSG were promoted as forward thinking and visionary in how they approach sports management. The reality unfortunately is that "muddled" is a more appropriate description. I'm tempted to throw in "cheap" and "lazy" too.

There isn't much left to say about this window that hasn't been said already. Pretty miserable stuff.
 
It didn't help that the sources/media 'close' to the club were so proud to claim in May that this window was going to be one where FSG will splash the cash and spend 100m+ on 5-6 players.

I'm very, very far from being a fan of FSG, but the talk about spending £100m or £150m or whatever, was hardly a lie, given we spent £35m on Salah and had our bids been accepted for Keita and VVD, the total outlay would have been c.£150m.

I'm not thick enough to claim this summer's transfer activity has, so far, been an excruciating, embarrassing disaster, but we have at least tried to spend money, but sadly, we're also shit at doing that.
 
I'm very, very far from being a fan of FSG, but the talk about spending £100m or £150m or whatever, was hardly a lie, given we spent £35m on Salah and had our bids been accepted for Keita and VVD, the total outlay would have been c.£150m.

I'm not thick enough to claim this summer's transfer activity has, so far, been an excruciating, embarrassing disaster, but we have at least tried to spend money, but sadly, we're also shit at doing that.

"had our bids been accepted" and "shit at doing that" - there's where the issue ties in with the thread title imo. :(
 
"had our bids been accepted" and "shit at doing that" - there's where the issue ties in with the thread title imo. :(

Well, yeah. But I'm not on the conspiracy bandwagon that any such bids were simply lies to appease a gullible fanbase, and there was never any intention of spending money.
 
Well, yeah. But I'm not on the conspiracy bandwagon that any such bids were simply lies to appease a gullible fanbase, and there was never any intention of spending money.
Neither am I (at least not yet :p) but it would have been nice to just do the actual work without having to shout out loud like the way we did we the VdV 'agreement', way before situation is clear or things are sealed.
 
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