What can we expect from West Ham
Given we are at home and looking at the statistics of both teams, Liverpool could have in the region of 60% possession. West Ham are likely to try and get the ball to the wide men and get the ball into the box from out wide and even deep area's. This is not only their natural game but our achilles heel. As will be seen below, West Ham average the highest number of crosses per game in the league.
However, West Ham have low possession stats and don't score many away from home. In addition, they are missing Andy Carroll who, on average, wins the most aerial contests in the league and is their 2nd highest goalscorer. Given our recent prowess at home and West Ham's poor defensive record away from home, Liverpool could win this by 2 or more goals.
General
West Ham's away record is abysmal scoring just 9 goals in 15 away matches with a record of W3 D2 L10. Only 5 of those goals came from open play as 4 were scored from either a set-piece or penalty i.e. an average of 1 goal from open play in every 3 away games.
In those 15 away games, they failed to score on 7 occassions, scored 1 on 7 occassions and only once scored 2 goals which was at QPR !
They've only kept 4 clean sheets on the road and have conceded 2 or more goals in over half of their away games (i.e. 8 of 15).
More specifically, their 'away record against Top 10 teams' is even more dismal which is 2nd worst in the league. P7 W0 D1 L6. They failed to score in 4 of those games and only kept 1 clean sheet and, in total, they scored just 3 but conceded 17.
Liverpool's record at 'home vs Bottom 10 teams' is only 6th best. Our record is P8 W5 D2 L1. However, in general, we have been very very tight at the back in those games as we kept 6 clean sheets in 8 games and only conceded 4 of which 3 were shipped in one game to Aston Villa.
In terms of form over the 'last 6 away matches', West Ham have lost 5 of the last 6 scoring 4 and conceding 15. In Liverpool's 'last 6 home games', we have won 5 of the last 6 scoring 20 and conceding 4.
In away games that West Ham scored 1st in, they've won 3 and lost 1 though those 3 victories were against bottom 10 teams. In the the 9 away games that they conceded 1st, they lost every single match ! The other away game missing is a 0-0 at WBA when there was no 1st goal.
Head to head
Against West Ham, 'Liverpool scored 3 goals in 5 of the last 6 games'. The last 2 games at Anfield has seen Liverpool win both 3-0. Since 1993, the teams have played 16 matches at Anfield with Liverpool winning 12 and drawing the other 4 i.e. West Ham haven't won at Anfield in the Premiership era.
In the last game at Upton Park, 'West Ham had only 45% of the possession' with a relatively average pass-completion rate of 78%. They attempted a total of 300 passes with Liverpool making 75% more passes i.e. 522. Given those stats were at Upton Park, its reasonable to assume that 'Liverpool could dominate possession (circa 60%) at Anfield'.
Possible West Ham line-up
Andy Carroll wont be available due to the terms of his loan deal.
Joe Cole could come back from injury and replace Vaz Te.
O'Neill is likely to continue as their deepest midfielder as Noble is injured.
Jääskeläinen
Demel Reid Collins O'Brien
Diame O'Neil Nolan
Joe Cole Carlton Cole Jarvis
Demel Reid Collins O'Brien
Diame O'Neil Nolan
Joe Cole Carlton Cole Jarvis
Possession
West Ham average 46.3% of the possession when they play away from home. This bodes well for Liverpool as we have the 2nd best possession stats when playing at home with an average of 58.2% (Arsenal have best with 58.3%). Their pass completion rate is 4th worst at just 74.4% whereas Liverpool's is 5th best at 84.5%.
Probably a reason for their poor stats on the ball is that they have one of the highest ratios of long passes compared to short passes (1 to 5) in the league. The following graphic is a snap-shot of the long balls played by West Ham in their recent home game against Spurs. I picked this game as Spurs play a high line to squeeze space and press the opposition. Whilst Liverpool are not as adventurous at the back we do attempt to win the ball fast so West Ham could similarly attempt to bypass our midfield and pressing with similar long balls. The interesting aspect of this graphic is not the number of passes but the point of origin and their end point. They are very direct !
Aerial threat
West Ham attempt the highest amount of crosses per game of any team in the league and we have been weak at closing down wide men to prevent crosses. The best chances that Villa created against Liverpool are the type of chances West Ham try to create i.e. long ball to target man and crosses into the box.
Joe Cole has only played 6 games for West Ham so far but yet has attempted 64 crosses so far. That is an average in excess of 10 per game ! Given the type of player is, his natural game is to play the ball on the ground. However, he has an average of 1 completed cross in 3 which is one of the best cross-completion rates in the league. Matt Jarvis has averaged over 8 crosses per game and has the 9th highest cross completion rate.
West Ham attempted 40 crosses recently vs Fulham Spurs
I don't think West Ham will get enough balls and enough field position to do the above, but if they do get alot of balls into the box, we are liable to make mistakes. Vertonghen's 2nd goal came stemmed from us stopping a Spurs player winning the ball but not necessarily clearing the ball and it just 'dropped' to Vertonghen. Also, in the away fixture, we made a mistake and Gerrard scored an o.g. from a cross.
Also, the following situation shows that West Ham are comfortable clipping the ball in from deeper, central areas if the situation allows. From this, West Ham won a penalty to go 1-0 up against Spurs.
Midfield
Noble & Diame can be considered the Premierships most combative duo making 186 tackles between them in the league this season. However, Noble is not expected to be fit for this game. Diame had a big game against Liverpool at Upton Park earlier in the season. The game seemed to swing our way after he was forced off with injury.
Diame has attempted 53 dribbles this season, to put that in context - Walcott has attempted 38, Bale 55 and Suarez 79. However, at the same time he is the 5th worst offender in the league for being dispossessed (does not include loss of possession from dribbling attempts). He also has a high rate of turnover i.e. lose possession from mistake or miscontrol. This is a concern because its generally strikers and wingers that top this list, having a midfielder losing the ball alot is a concern.
Attack
As Andy Carroll is on loan, he can't play against Liverpool and is likely to be replaced by Carlton Cole who has scored only 2 goals in the league this season though none in his last 11.
Kevin Nolan is their top scorer with 6 goals though 5 of those came in the first 11 games and he has only scored 1 in his last 15.
Chamakh is on loan at West Ham but has only had 2 starts and in each of those starts he was subbed before the 63rd minute.
Despite their poor possession and passing stats, they rank 8th in terms of shots on goals in away games which is slightly surprising as their passing success rate is fairly poor at 74.4%. The 3 teams that rank above them at 5th, 6th and 7th for shots in away games are Utd, Arsenal and Chelsea.
Ultimately, though, the quality of chance is perhaps not of a high quality as despite getting off a total of 187 shots in away games (12.5 on average per game), they have only scored 9 goals away from home i.e. a goal for every 20.7 shots. Only once have they scored 2 goals away from home in the league this season that was early on away to QPR.
Referee
The ref will be Anthony Taylor that took charge of us 3 times this season;
- Man City 2-2 (H)
- Newcastle 1-1 (H)
- QPR 0-3 (A)
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In those games he gave out 10 yellow cards and 1 red card to Coloccini in the Newcastle game for a foul on Suarez.
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