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Betting The Grand National - How to pick the winner

Prefix for Betting Threads
Thanks for doing this Ross, you've saved me the ballache of doing half of it tomorrow morning.

I got 1st and 2nd in 2007 (I gave the missus a choice out of 2 hoss's I like liked, and she picked the winner for me)

I got 2nd last year
 
[quote author=Sheik Yerbouti link=topic=32420.msg836741#msg836741 date=1238750960]
I've gone for Black Apalachi and State Of Play
[/quote]

Betfair is reporting that Black Apache is carrying 11st 5 mate :eek:
 
[quote author=Mors link=topic=32420.msg836757#msg836757 date=1238751438]
[quote author=Sheik Yerbouti link=topic=32420.msg836741#msg836741 date=1238750960]
I've gone for Black Apalachi and State Of Play
[/quote]

Betfair is reporting that Black Apache is carrying 11st 5 mate :eek:
[/quote]

Oh well. It's a lottery at the end of the day.
 
[quote author=Sheik Yerbouti link=topic=32420.msg836765#msg836765 date=1238751624]
[quote author=Mors link=topic=32420.msg836757#msg836757 date=1238751438]
[quote author=Sheik Yerbouti link=topic=32420.msg836741#msg836741 date=1238750960]
I've gone for Black Apalachi and State Of Play
[/quote]

Betfair is reporting that Black Apache is carrying 11st 5 mate :eek:
[/quote]

Oh well. It's a lottery at the end of the day.
[/quote]

Very true, and it's a very good hoss. I'd have been on it if it wasn't for the weight.
 
They reckon the ground is against Black Apalachi too. Likes soft, and it certainly wont be.

Im backing State of Play though.
 
my money has gone on...

To win

Rambling Minster
Kilbeggan Blade
Darkness
Parsons Legacy
 
[quote author=Fox link=topic=32420.msg836877#msg836877 date=1238760004]
my money has gone on...

To win

Rambling Minster
Kilbeggan Blade
Darkness
Parsons Legacy




[/quote]

I'm going to lump onto Rambling Minster. I think if it can finish the race, it'll win. It's in excellent form, and ticks all the boxes - right weight, right age, right form, won over the distance etc etc

I usually back 2-3, but it'll defo be one of mine.
 
I'm backing last years winner, Comply or Die, then probably one of the favourites too.
 
Got a tip from Amber cabs today but didnt pass it around cause a lad in work gave me a tip yesterday and it didnt come off and didnt want to pass on dud info again. Just told one person about it and they backed it too.

Should never doubt ambs at this stage:

Bet Receipt No. : O/20712830/0000493

Selection Selection Details Result
1 Horse Racing Win
  DUNDALK
  8:00 APPRENTICE HAN 1m 4f
  3rd of Apr 2009 8:00 pm
  Win or each way
  1/4 places 1,2,3
  Otterstown Lady @ 12 - 1 (GP)

He had €20 e.w. on it. I had a lousy fiver on it. 
 
 
better than nothing Dave.

I've narrowed my national horses down to :

Kilbeggan Blade @20/1
Southern Vic @ 25/1
Rambling Minster @10/1

Idle talk @ 66/1 may be worth a couple of quid each way (but no more than that!). Can't Buy Time is another long priced E/W shot.

I normally back two horses in the national, but I'm tempted to go for three this time. While I've picked Kilbeggan Blade I'm not entirely sure it'll get around unscathed but if it does I'd take it to beat Rambling Minster based on past form between the two. It's chase mark is a little bit lower than it probably should be because it's gone over hurdles a good bit this year.

Southern Vic's price drifted out after Ruby decided not to ride it, a lot was made of it needing soft ground and at the time Ruby made his decision I think they were expecting no rain between then and the race, but I think there's going to be rain tomorrow isn't there ? Anyway - I don't see any form that states it doesn't run well on good ground (because it never has run on goog ground), but it has won on yielding ground.

Rambling Minster is a good solid (and popular) choice, so there's not a whole lot to say about it.

Of those three - Southern Vic is the only Irish bred one, and Irish bred horses have won 8 of the last 9. So I'll probably stick with that. It's got a very canny trainer and a good experienced jockey on board.
 
I hate this race. The more i look the more I change my mind.

I think Brooklyn Brownie has to enter the equation now too.
 
Ok I'm backing these three and leaving it at this:

Southern Vic
Brooklyn Brownie
Kilbeggan Blade
 
[quote author=Rosco link=topic=32420.msg837354#msg837354 date=1238832759]
Ok I'm backing these three and leaving it at this:

Southern Vic
Brooklyn Brownie
Kilbeggan Blade
[/quote]

I like those 3 but Southern Vic puts me off by being a horse that seems prone to mistakes. It's good, but I'd have thought it'd need a big slice of luck.

I've had:
Kilbeggan
Brooklyn
Rambling
Himalayan

*E/W btw, I dont fancy any of them on the nose*
 
I did all mine e/w as well. I think any horse that wins the national needs a bit of luck to be honest Mors so I don't mind taking a chance with Southern Vic
 
Kilbeggan Blade @20/1
Southern Vic @ 25/1
Rambling Minster @10/1

Yeah, I just backed all them. You seemed to know what you're on about.
 
My Will and Butlers Cabin have both drifted a bit in the betting today ....
 
[quote author=Loch Ness Monster link=topic=32420.msg837620#msg837620 date=1238858993]
100-1 winner. Mon Mome
WOW :eek:
[/quote]

My Dad had a tenner each way on it, the jammy fuck.

None of mine even placed !
 
God_23 backed Mom Mome in the past an it pissed in for him. We were telling him he has to back it again over having history with the horse. He didn't, he's sick. Haha.

Fair play to your old lad Ross.

Amber cabs got a text about Alexander Beetle in the last race 40/1. Haha. Might stick tiny e.w. bet on it.
 
I've backed Mon Mome in the past too, but I didn't even consider doing it this time so I'm not too bothered.

I think I'll have a look at Alexander Beetle, cheers.
 
Just looking at the stats - Mon Mome , French Bred and carried 11 stone.

I think I might ditch those stats for next year !
 
[quote author=Rosco link=topic=32420.msg837645#msg837645 date=1238859990]
I've backed Mon Mome in the past too, but I didn't even consider doing it this time so I'm not too bothered.

I think I'll have a look at Alexander Beetle, cheers.
[/quote]

He said he doesnt know anything about the horse and just got text. Should have texted you on the 12/1 winner last night.

Lad in work backs Mon Mome the whole time. Don't think he went near him today. OOPS.
 
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