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Betting The Grand National

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Rosco

Rosco

Worse than Brendan
Member
I'm going to use the trends to narrow down the field, bearing in mind that last year's winner broke one of the old golden rules,





01-3244 Madison Du Berlais (FR) 9 11-10 D Pipe 162
1F544U Notre Pere (FR) 9 11-10 J T R Dreaper 158
1-P3463 Mon Mome (FR) 10 11-7 Miss V Williams 148
151U-02 Black Apalachi (IRE) 11 11-6 D T Hughes 155
5-50030 Joe Lively (IRE) 11 11-6 C L Tizzard 155
211501 Vic Venturi (IRE) 10 11-6 D T Hughes 154
P002-00 Comply Or Die (IRE) 11 11-5 D Pipe 153
01-423P Don't Push It (IRE) 10 11-5 Jonjo O'Neill 153
U2404P Made In Taipan (IRE) 8 11-4 Thomas Mullins 149
1-03520 Niche Market (IRE) 9 11-4 R H Buckler 152
121-210 Tricky Trickster (IRE) 7 11-4 P F Nicholls 152
FU-3644 Cloudy Lane 10 11-3 D McCain Jnr 151
UPP/21P Dream Alliance 9 11-3 P J Hobbs 151
1P00-60 Nozic (FR) 9 11-3 P F Nicholls -
53-2050 My Will (FR) 10 11-2 P F Nicholls 150
3606-4F Pablo Du Charmil (FR) 9 11-2 D Pipe -
112313 Backstage (FR) 8 11-0 G Elliott -
6-51110 Ballyholland (IRE) 9 11-0 C A McBratney 145
P-1P1PP Beat The Boys (IRE) 9 11-0 N A Twiston-Davies 146
0-000F0 Preists Leap (IRE) 10 11-0 Thomas O'leary 148
14F-016 Can't Buy Time (IRE) 8 10-13 Jonjo O'Neill 147
103223 Snowy Morning (IRE) 10 10-13 W P Mullins 147
06-P3UF Air Force One (GER) 8 10-12 C J Mann 146
136-2U1 Big Fella Thanks 8 10-12 P F Nicholls 146
3-41230 Deutschland (USA) 7 10-12 W P Mullins 146
3301-00 Character Building (IRE) 10 10-11 J J Quinn 145
0-52600 Chelsea Harbour (IRE) 10 10-11 Thomas Mullins 148
U-301F2 Dooneys Gate (IRE) 9 10-11 W P Mullins 139
60/144-P State of Play 10 10-11 Evan Williams -
0-12100 Ellerslie George (IRE) 10 10-10 Nick Mitchell 144
4P1540 Ballyfitz 10 10-9 N A Twiston-Davies 139
43545U Conna Castle (IRE) 11 10-9 J J Mangan 143
23-15P6 Equus Maximus (IRE) 10 10-9 W P Mullins 143
2P5-011 Eric's Charm (FR) 12 10-9 O Sherwood 143
2/0-0000 King Johns Castle (IRE) 11 10-9 A L T Moore 142
305460 Ollie Magern 12 10-9 N A Twiston-Davies 141
30-30U2 Arbor Supreme (IRE) 8 10-8 W P Mullins 140
244/660 Lennon (IRE) 10 10-8 J Howard Johnson 142
02P-253 Maljimar (IRE) 10 10-8 Nick Williams -
U01-4U5 Irish Raptor (IRE) 11 10-7 N A Twiston-Davies -
P/6220-0 Mr Pointment (IRE) 11 10-7 Paul Murphy 141
0-33010 Piraya (FR) 7 10-7 D Pipe 141
12401P Razor Royale (IRE) 8 10-7 N A Twiston-Davies
3-02312 The Package 7 10-7 D Pipe 141
035B00 Hello Bud (IRE) 12 10-6 N A Twiston-Davies 137
P6-1420 Palypso De Creek (FR) 7 10-6 C E Longsdon 139
3/32-31P Abbeybraney (IRE) 9 10-5 J Howard Johnson 139
0PP/05-0 Cerium (FR) 9 10-5 Paul Murphy 133
P63/52-P Flintoff (USA) 9 10-5 Miss V Williams -
56/33P5 Royal Rosa (FR) 11 10-5 J Howard Johnson -
F-26R20 Silver Birch (IRE) 13 10-5 G Elliott 138
PP462F Knowhere (IRE) 12 10-4 N A Twiston-Davies 140
25-0560 Oodachee 11 10-4 C F Swan 133
4F1311 Whinstone Boy (IRE) 9 10-4 J J Mangan -
P03-402 Faasel (IRE) 9 10-3 D Pipe 135
1C40P-0 Officier De Reserve (FR) 8 10-3 Miss V Williams 137
5-30011 Chief Dan George (IRE) 10 10-2 James Moffatt 142
111P20 Duers (IRE) 8 10-2 Paul Magnier 130
01-1F01 Ballytrim (IRE) 9 10-1 W P Mullins 131
0-0U004 Offshore Account (IRE) 10 10-1 C F Swan 135
P220P6 Pak Jack (FR) 10 10-1 R T Phillips 130
66/4-540 Kings Advocate (IRE) 10 10-0 T J Taaffe 127
3F-116P Treacle (IRE) 9 10-0 T J Taaffe 130
45-2613 Galant Nuit (FR) 6 9-13 Ferdy Murphy 133
0F4215 Anothercoppercoast (IRE) 10 9-12 Paul A Roche 123
31F4-22 Belon Gale (IRE) 7 9-12 J Howard Johnson -
5-0600P Pomme Tiepy (FR) 7 9-12 W P Mullins 132
021-0D6 Merigo (FR) 9 9-10 A Parker 130
3414-00 Chiaro (FR) 8 9-9 P J Hobbs -
4-U335P According To John (IRE) 10 9-8 N G Richards 128
512P0P Lorum Leader (IRE) 9 9-7 Dr R D P Newland 127
42/0PP0 Over The Creek 11 9-4 D Pipe 124
253-346 Cossack Dancer (IRE) 12 9-1 M Bradstock -
3P/FP52 Wee Robbie 10 9-0 N J Gifford 120
1/P6P-4P Offaly (IRE) 9 8-12 Mrs P Townsley 118
[tr][td]
 
Weight Factor

Only one horse in the last 25 years has carried more than 11 stone to victory. Only one horse in the last 51 years, the great Red Rum, has won the race carrying more than 11 stone 5lbs. This is a very important statistic to keep in mind when you consider the numbers involved during that period.
Click to expand...


So I'm taking everything carrying more than 11 stone out, including some notable entries such as previous winner (and second last year) Comply or Die, last years winner Mon Mome, Black Appalachi who was fancied last year but fell, Notre Pere (Welsh Grand National winner) and the talented Tricky Trickster.

That leaves:




112313 Backstage (FR) 8 11-0 G Elliott -
6-51110 Ballyholland (IRE) 9 11-0 C A McBratney 145
P-1P1PP Beat The Boys (IRE) 9 11-0 N A Twiston-Davies 146
0-000F0 Preists Leap (IRE) 10 11-0 Thomas O'leary 148
14F-016 Can't Buy Time (IRE) 8 10-13 Jonjo O'Neill 147
103223 Snowy Morning (IRE) 10 10-13 W P Mullins 147
06-P3UF Air Force One (GER) 8 10-12 C J Mann 146
136-2U1 Big Fella Thanks 8 10-12 P F Nicholls 146
3-41230 Deutschland (USA) 7 10-12 W P Mullins 146
3301-00 Character Building (IRE) 10 10-11 J J Quinn 145
0-52600 Chelsea Harbour (IRE) 10 10-11 Thomas Mullins 148
U-301F2 Dooneys Gate (IRE) 9 10-11 W P Mullins 139
60/144-P State of Play 10 10-11 Evan Williams -
0-12100 Ellerslie George (IRE) 10 10-10 Nick Mitchell 144
4P1540 Ballyfitz 10 10-9 N A Twiston-Davies 139
43545U Conna Castle (IRE) 11 10-9 J J Mangan 143
23-15P6 Equus Maximus (IRE) 10 10-9 W P Mullins 143
2P5-011 Eric's Charm (FR) 12 10-9 O Sherwood 143
2/0-0000 King Johns Castle (IRE) 11 10-9 A L T Moore 142
305460 Ollie Magern 12 10-9 N A Twiston-Davies 141
30-30U2 Arbor Supreme (IRE) 8 10-8 W P Mullins 140
244/660 Lennon (IRE) 10 10-8 J Howard Johnson 142
02P-253 Maljimar (IRE) 10 10-8 Nick Williams -
U01-4U5 Irish Raptor (IRE) 11 10-7 N A Twiston-Davies -
P/6220-0 Mr Pointment (IRE) 11 10-7 Paul Murphy 141
0-33010 Piraya (FR) 7 10-7 D Pipe 141
12401P Razor Royale (IRE) 8 10-7 N A Twiston-Davies
3-02312 The Package 7 10-7 D Pipe 141
035B00 Hello Bud (IRE) 12 10-6 N A Twiston-Davies 137
P6-1420 Palypso De Creek (FR) 7 10-6 C E Longsdon 139
3/32-31P Abbeybraney (IRE) 9 10-5 J Howard Johnson 139
0PP/05-0 Cerium (FR) 9 10-5 Paul Murphy 133
P63/52-P Flintoff (USA) 9 10-5 Miss V Williams -
56/33P5 Royal Rosa (FR) 11 10-5 J Howard Johnson -
F-26R20 Silver Birch (IRE) 13 10-5 G Elliott 138
PP462F Knowhere (IRE) 12 10-4 N A Twiston-Davies 140
25-0560 Oodachee 11 10-4 C F Swan 133
4F1311 Whinstone Boy (IRE) 9 10-4 J J Mangan -
P03-402 Faasel (IRE) 9 10-3 D Pipe 135
1C40P-0 Officier De Reserve (FR) 8 10-3 Miss V Williams 137
5-30011 Chief Dan George (IRE) 10 10-2 James Moffatt 142
111P20 Duers (IRE) 8 10-2 Paul Magnier 130
01-1F01 Ballytrim (IRE) 9 10-1 W P Mullins 131
0-0U004 Offshore Account (IRE) 10 10-1 C F Swan 135
P220P6 Pak Jack (FR) 10 10-1 R T Phillips 130
66/4-540 Kings Advocate (IRE) 10 10-0 T J Taaffe 127
3F-116P Treacle (IRE) 9 10-0 T J Taaffe 130
45-2613 Galant Nuit (FR) 6 9-13 Ferdy Murphy 133
0F4215 Anothercoppercoast (IRE) 10 9-12 Paul A Roche 123
31F4-22 Belon Gale (IRE) 7 9-12 J Howard Johnson -
5-0600P Pomme Tiepy (FR) 7 9-12 W P Mullins 132
021-0D6 Merigo (FR) 9 9-10 A Parker 130
3414-00 Chiaro (FR) 8 9-9 P J Hobbs -
4-U335P According To John (IRE) 10 9-8 N G Richards 128
512P0P Lorum Leader (IRE) 9 9-7 Dr R D P Newland 127
42/0PP0 Over The Creek 11 9-4 D Pipe 124
253-346 Cossack Dancer (IRE) 12 9-1 M Bradstock -
3P/FP52 Wee Robbie 10 9-0 N J Gifford 120
1/P6P-4P Offaly (IRE) 9 8-12 Mrs P Townsley 118
[tr][td]
 
Age Factor

A seven year old has not won the Grand National for 68 years and it's 95 years since a six year old was last victorious.

Nine year olds have won 4 Nationals in the last 10 years and runners aged between ten and twelve have won 12 of the last 19 renewals.

Teenagers need to be avoided with none even in the frame since 1969. The last winner was 86 years ago.
Click to expand...

So basically only horses between the ages of 8 and 12 are being kept. Only a handful of horses are removed by this one, but one horse that a lot of people like is The Package and it falls at this hurdle. (but I don't want to rule him out completely since he's well in on that handicap, 6lbs lower than his rating will be straight after the race)






112313 Backstage (FR) 8 11-0 G Elliott -
6-51110 Ballyholland (IRE) 9 11-0 C A McBratney 145
P-1P1PP Beat The Boys (IRE) 9 11-0 N A Twiston-Davies 146
0-000F0 Preists Leap (IRE) 10 11-0 Thomas O'leary 148
14F-016 Can't Buy Time (IRE) 8 10-13 Jonjo O'Neill 147
103223 Snowy Morning (IRE) 10 10-13 W P Mullins 147
06-P3UF Air Force One (GER) 8 10-12 C J Mann 146
136-2U1 Big Fella Thanks 8 10-12 P F Nicholls 146
3-41230 Deutschland (USA) 7 10-12 W P Mullins 146
3301-00 Character Building (IRE) 10 10-11 J J Quinn 145
0-52600 Chelsea Harbour (IRE) 10 10-11 Thomas Mullins 148
U-301F2 Dooneys Gate (IRE) 9 10-11 W P Mullins 139
60/144-P State of Play 10 10-11 Evan Williams -
0-12100 Ellerslie George (IRE) 10 10-10 Nick Mitchell 144
4P1540 Ballyfitz 10 10-9 N A Twiston-Davies 139
43545U Conna Castle (IRE) 11 10-9 J J Mangan 143
23-15P6 Equus Maximus (IRE) 10 10-9 W P Mullins 143
2P5-011 Eric's Charm (FR) 12 10-9 O Sherwood 143
2/0-0000 King Johns Castle (IRE) 11 10-9 A L T Moore 142
305460 Ollie Magern 12 10-9 N A Twiston-Davies 141
30-30U2 Arbor Supreme (IRE) 8 10-8 W P Mullins 140
244/660 Lennon (IRE) 10 10-8 J Howard Johnson 142
02P-253 Maljimar (IRE) 10 10-8 Nick Williams -
U01-4U5 Irish Raptor (IRE) 11 10-7 N A Twiston-Davies -
P/6220-0 Mr Pointment (IRE) 11 10-7 Paul Murphy 141
12401P Razor Royale (IRE) 8 10-7 N A Twiston-Davies
035B00 Hello Bud (IRE) 12 10-6 N A Twiston-Davies 137
P6-1420 Palypso De Creek (FR) 7 10-6 C E Longsdon 139
3/32-31P Abbeybraney (IRE) 9 10-5 J Howard Johnson 139
0PP/05-0 Cerium (FR) 9 10-5 Paul Murphy 133
P63/52-P Flintoff (USA) 9 10-5 Miss V Williams -
56/33P5 Royal Rosa (FR) 11 10-5 J Howard Johnson -
PP462F Knowhere (IRE) 12 10-4 N A Twiston-Davies 140
25-0560 Oodachee 11 10-4 C F Swan 133
4F1311 Whinstone Boy (IRE) 9 10-4 J J Mangan -
P03-402 Faasel (IRE) 9 10-3 D Pipe 135
1C40P-0 Officier De Reserve (FR) 8 10-3 Miss V Williams 137
5-30011 Chief Dan George (IRE) 10 10-2 James Moffatt 142
111P20 Duers (IRE) 8 10-2 Paul Magnier 130
01-1F01 Ballytrim (IRE) 9 10-1 W P Mullins 131
0-0U004 Offshore Account (IRE) 10 10-1 C F Swan 135
P220P6 Pak Jack (FR) 10 10-1 R T Phillips 130
66/4-540 Kings Advocate (IRE) 10 10-0 T J Taaffe 127
3F-116P Treacle (IRE) 9 10-0 T J Taaffe 130
0F4215 Anothercoppercoast (IRE) 10 9-12 Paul A Roche 123
021-0D6 Merigo (FR) 9 9-10 A Parker 130
3414-00 Chiaro (FR) 8 9-9 P J Hobbs -
4-U335P According To John (IRE) 10 9-8 N G Richards 128
512P0P Lorum Leader (IRE) 9 9-7 Dr R D P Newland 127
42/0PP0 Over The Creek 11 9-4 D Pipe 124
253-346 Cossack Dancer (IRE) 12 9-1 M Bradstock -
3P/FP52 Wee Robbie 10 9-0 N J Gifford 120
1/P6P-4P Offaly (IRE) 9 8-12 Mrs P Townsley 118
[tr][td]
 
It gets trickier after this but probably the next best trend to use is:

Runners with an official rating of between 136 and 157 have been responsible for winning the last 21 renewals.
Click to expand...



leaving:


112313 Backstage (FR) 8 11-0 G Elliott -
6-51110 Ballyholland (IRE) 9 11-0 C A McBratney 145
P-1P1PP Beat The Boys (IRE) 9 11-0 N A Twiston-Davies 146
0-000F0 Preists Leap (IRE) 10 11-0 Thomas O'leary 148
14F-016 Can't Buy Time (IRE) 8 10-13 Jonjo O'Neill 147
103223 Snowy Morning (IRE) 10 10-13 W P Mullins 147
06-P3UF Air Force One (GER) 8 10-12 C J Mann 146
136-2U1 Big Fella Thanks 8 10-12 P F Nicholls 146
3-41230 Deutschland (USA) 7 10-12 W P Mullins 146
3301-00 Character Building (IRE) 10 10-11 J J Quinn 145
0-52600 Chelsea Harbour (IRE) 10 10-11 Thomas Mullins 148
U-301F2 Dooneys Gate (IRE) 9 10-11 W P Mullins 139
60/144-P State of Play 10 10-11 Evan Williams -
0-12100 Ellerslie George (IRE) 10 10-10 Nick Mitchell 144
4P1540 Ballyfitz 10 10-9 N A Twiston-Davies 139
43545U Conna Castle (IRE) 11 10-9 J J Mangan 143
23-15P6 Equus Maximus (IRE) 10 10-9 W P Mullins 143
2P5-011 Eric's Charm (FR) 12 10-9 O Sherwood 143
2/0-0000 King Johns Castle (IRE) 11 10-9 A L T Moore 142
305460 Ollie Magern 12 10-9 N A Twiston-Davies 141
30-30U2 Arbor Supreme (IRE) 8 10-8 W P Mullins 140
244/660 Lennon (IRE) 10 10-8 J Howard Johnson 142
02P-253 Maljimar (IRE) 10 10-8 Nick Williams -
U01-4U5 Irish Raptor (IRE) 11 10-7 N A Twiston-Davies -
P/6220-0 Mr Pointment (IRE) 11 10-7 Paul Murphy 141
12401P Razor Royale (IRE) 8 10-7 N A Twiston-Davies
035B00 Hello Bud (IRE) 12 10-6 N A Twiston-Davies 137
P6-1420 Palypso De Creek (FR) 7 10-6 C E Longsdon 139
3/32-31P Abbeybraney (IRE) 9 10-5 J Howard Johnson 139
P63/52-P Flintoff (USA) 9 10-5 Miss V Williams -
56/33P5 Royal Rosa (FR) 11 10-5 J Howard Johnson -
PP462F Knowhere (IRE) 12 10-4 N A Twiston-Davies 140
4F1311 Whinstone Boy (IRE) 9 10-4 J J Mangan -
1C40P-0 Officier De Reserve (FR) 8 10-3 Miss V Williams 137
5-30011 Chief Dan George (IRE) 10 10-2 James Moffatt 142
[tr][td]
 
This next trend was broken last year for the first by Mon Mome:

French bred runners have a poor record.
Click to expand...

Taking out the French Bred horses leaves:



6-51110 Ballyholland (IRE) 9 11-0 C A McBratney 145
P-1P1PP Beat The Boys (IRE) 9 11-0 N A Twiston-Davies 146
0-000F0 Preists Leap (IRE) 10 11-0 Thomas O'leary 148
14F-016 Can't Buy Time (IRE) 8 10-13 Jonjo O'Neill 147
103223 Snowy Morning (IRE) 10 10-13 W P Mullins 147
06-P3UF Air Force One (GER) 8 10-12 C J Mann 146
136-2U1 Big Fella Thanks 8 10-12 P F Nicholls 146
3-41230 Deutschland (USA) 7 10-12 W P Mullins 146
3301-00 Character Building (IRE) 10 10-11 J J Quinn 145
0-52600 Chelsea Harbour (IRE) 10 10-11 Thomas Mullins 148
U-301F2 Dooneys Gate (IRE) 9 10-11 W P Mullins 139
60/144-P State of Play 10 10-11 Evan Williams -
0-12100 Ellerslie George (IRE) 10 10-10 Nick Mitchell 144
4P1540 Ballyfitz 10 10-9 N A Twiston-Davies 139
43545U Conna Castle (IRE) 11 10-9 J J Mangan 143
23-15P6 Equus Maximus (IRE) 10 10-9 W P Mullins 143
2/0-0000 King Johns Castle (IRE) 11 10-9 A L T Moore 142
305460 Ollie Magern 12 10-9 N A Twiston-Davies 141
30-30U2 Arbor Supreme (IRE) 8 10-8 W P Mullins 140
244/660 Lennon (IRE) 10 10-8 J Howard Johnson 142
02P-253 Maljimar (IRE) 10 10-8 Nick Williams -
U01-4U5 Irish Raptor (IRE) 11 10-7 N A Twiston-Davies -
P/6220-0 Mr Pointment (IRE) 11 10-7 Paul Murphy 141
12401P Razor Royale (IRE) 8 10-7 N A Twiston-Davies
035B00 Hello Bud (IRE) 12 10-6 N A Twiston-Davies 137
3/32-31P Abbeybraney (IRE) 9 10-5 J Howard Johnson 139
P63/52-P Flintoff (USA) 9 10-5 Miss V Williams -
PP462F Knowhere (IRE) 12 10-4 N A Twiston-Davies 140
4F1311 Whinstone Boy (IRE) 9 10-4 J J Mangan -
5-30011 Chief Dan George (IRE) 10 10-2 James Moffatt 142
[tr][td]
 
This next trend is a pain in the arse to use because it involves a lot of work:

Since 1970 every winner had previously won over 3 miles or more.
Click to expand...




P-1P1PP Beat The Boys (IRE) 9 11-0 N A Twiston-Davies 146
0-000F0 Preists Leap (IRE) 10 11-0 Thomas O'leary 148
14F-016 Can't Buy Time (IRE) 8 10-13 Jonjo O'Neill 147
06-P3UF Air Force One (GER) 8 10-12 C J Mann 146
136-2U1 Big Fella Thanks 8 10-12 P F Nicholls 146
3301-00 Character Building (IRE) 10 10-11 J J Quinn 145
0-52600 Chelsea Harbour (IRE) 10 10-11 Thomas Mullins 148
U-301F2 Dooneys Gate (IRE) 9 10-11 W P Mullins 139
60/144-P State of Play 10 10-11 Evan Williams -
0-12100 Ellerslie George (IRE) 10 10-10 Nick Mitchell 144
4P1540 Ballyfitz 10 10-9 N A Twiston-Davies 139
23-15P6 Equus Maximus (IRE) 10 10-9 W P Mullins 143
305460 Ollie Magern 12 10-9 N A Twiston-Davies 141
30-30U2 Arbor Supreme (IRE) 8 10-8 W P Mullins 140
U01-4U5 Irish Raptor (IRE) 11 10-7 N A Twiston-Davies -
P/6220-0 Mr Pointment (IRE) 11 10-7 Paul Murphy 141
12401P Razor Royale (IRE) 8 10-7 N A Twiston-Davies
035B00 Hello Bud (IRE) 12 10-6 N A Twiston-Davies 137
3/32-31P Abbeybraney (IRE) 9 10-5 J Howard Johnson 139
P63/52-P Flintoff (USA) 9 10-5 Miss V Williams -
PP462F Knowhere (IRE) 12 10-4 N A Twiston-Davies 140
4F1311 Whinstone Boy (IRE) 9 10-4 J J Mangan -
5-30011 Chief Dan George (IRE) 10 10-2 James Moffatt 142
[tr][td]


That didn't take out nearly as many as I'd hoped, but the list is whittling away. I'll return to this over the weekend.
 
[quote author=SaintGeorge67 link=topic=39601.msg1080203#msg1080203 date=1270148894]
can you narrow it down to one please?
[/quote]

Big Fella Thanks
 
Ive already backed Character Building big fella, if that wins, we are going to town in the night!
 
I wasted money on him at Cheltenham but I will 'waste' more at the weekend. 20/1 i think.
 
I'm using the only tried and tested method of picking a winner in the National

*wets finger*
*shuts eyes*
*points aimlessly at paper*

Horse chosen.
 
[quote author=Niall K link=topic=39601.msg1082917#msg1082917 date=1270549339]
We're fucked I've backed Character Building too.
[/quote]

Yeah that or we're all rich soon.
 
One of the other more recent trends is that 4 of the last 5 winners have run over hurdles earlier during the season (in order to keep their Chase Handicap Mark down)

Only four horses left from previous cuts have run over hurdles this season:

Character Building
Arbour Supreme
Irish Raptor
Whinstone Boy


Another trend is that for the most part, last year again bucking this trend, the winner tends to be priced at 20/1 or shorter. Added to the fact that most winners are 8 or 9 I feel comfortable in taking out Irish Raptor.
 
I also have a preference for a horse that has shown he get around and finish the race, Mon Mome had this in his favour last year, However stats show previous winners don't do well in this race.

So here's a few horses that finished the course last year, and fit with the age and weight trends:

Big Fella Thanks - as a 7 year old he finished sixth carrying 11 stone 1. This year he's carrying 10 stone 12 and is 8 years old,now fitting nicely into the two main trends. He's also got Ruby on board. He'll go off favourite and he probably deserves to.

State of Play - Carried 11 stone 2 when finishing fourth last year, 10 years old now. Set to carry 10 stone 12 this year.

Cerium - french bred horse, carried 10 stone 5 last year, set to carry the same this time around. Big price and although his form looks shite he has been running against top quailty opposition for the most part. I still don't fancy it.

Snowy Morning - Carried a whopping 11 stone 8 last year, and managed to finish the course. Set to carry 10 stone 13 this year, 10 years old now. Interesting one.
 
Final Five:

Character Building
Arbour Supreme
Whinstone Boy
Big Fella Thanks
Snowy Morning
 
[quote author=Rosco link=topic=39601.msg1083333#msg1083333 date=1270587224]
Final Five:

Character Building
Arbour Supreme
Whinstone Boy
Big Fella Thanks
Snowy Morning
[/quote]

Nice work Rosco. I'll probably have a few bob each way on Arbor Supreme along with my original bet on Character Building. He ran a very nice race last time out when he ran on strongly to take 2nd in a race that was over 2m5f. It really does seem likely that the National has been the plan for a long time now.
 
It's less than scientific at the end to be fair, and it didn't go well last year. But I think the thread the year before that suggested Comply or Die as the likeliest winner.

1 out of 2 ain't bad in the National.

I haven't done any bets myself but I'll probably pick a couple of each way shots and do them online before I go over on Friday.

On Character Building he really does look like he's been laid out for this race, he's only run twice this season - once over hurdles - and it just looks like they're trying to ensure he comes in at a good mark.
 
[quote author=Rosco link=topic=39601.msg1084014#msg1084014 date=1270666812]
It's less than scientific at the end to be fair, and it didn't go well last year. But I think the thread the year before that suggested Comply or Die as the likeliest winner.

1 out of 2 ain't bad in the National.

I haven't done any bets myself but I'll probably pick a couple of each way shots and do them online before I go over on Friday.

On Character Building he really does look like he's been laid out for this race, he's only run twice this season - once over hurdles - and it just looks like they're trying to ensure he comes in at a good mark.
[/quote]

He was also purchased over the weekend by the owners of Cheveley Park Stud who are much more renowned for their flat horses.
They have already tasted Aintree glory, having bought Party Politics just days before his 1992 triumph.
 
[quote author=Sunny link=topic=39601.msg1084067#msg1084067 date=1270669889]
So, any tips for Friday boys.... ?
[/quote]

Don't get carried away by Cheltenham form, you never really know how the horses come out of it.
 
[quote author=Rosco link=topic=39601.msg1084429#msg1084429 date=1270713223]
[quote author=Sunny link=topic=39601.msg1084067#msg1084067 date=1270669889]
So, any tips for Friday boys.... ?
[/quote]

Don't get carried away by Cheltenham form, you never really know how the horses come out of it.
[/quote]

Is correct. I laid Imperial Commander big style.
 
I never managed to get to the bookies today.

What a friend was the only horse I fancied !
 
Just looking at the other results, Baby Run and Sanctuaire were beaten too.
 
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