Betting World Cup Betting Thread

[ILD]

Mods, can we leave this here for a bit before we move it to the gambling forum? Hopefully more will see it and join in.

Did anyone spot any decent bets with a bit of value yet?

To kick us off, how about Dzeko at 80/1 to be the top scorer at the World Cup. Bosnia have Iran and Nigeria in the groups. Not sure if Bosnia will go much further but 4 goals could win you an e.w. bet. I also read that he is 6/4 to be Bosnia's top scorer.

Which one of Holland and Chile will get out of the group with Spain? Holland not to qualify from the group is 6/4, Chile to qualify is 21/20.

Fred at 20/1 to be top goal scorer at the world cup. He was their top scorer at the confeds I think? Brazil will go far so in with a shout.

There is also a market on who will start for England in the first game. Lallana is 11/10 to start as is Sterling.

PP has a million markets already set up it seems.

 

[Leo]

I'll study this further later this evening I think I've a few cracking bets lined up.

 

[SummerOnions]

Brazil vs Argentina in the final is 10/1

Defo worth something

 

[gene hughes]

Paddy Power offering odds of 9/2 on Hodgson rubbing his own face off during extra time of England's 2nd round nail biter against Belgium.

 

[Pesam]

I still think Ivory Coast are a decent price; I got them at 190/1 and they're down to 150/1 but with Drogba, Bony, Yaya & Kolo Toure, Tiote and Kalou they're still decent value.

I think Argentina will feature in a lot of my bets i.e. Overall winner, top goalscorers (they have Bosnia, Nigeria and Iran) I reckon they could score at least 10 goals in the group stage! Also, Messi top goalscorer.

I will probably bet on Holland & Italy not to qualify from the group stage.

 

[ILD]

Can a European team win in South Amercia? Spain or Germany are the only two capable of it and represent decent odds.

I'm not backing Brazil at a skinny 3/1. The squad isn't amazing at all but home soil will be a huge factor. I'm going to avoid them in my selections.

 

[Pesam]

Can a European team win in South Amercia? Spain or Germany are the only two capable of it and represent decent odds.

I'm not backing Brazil at a skinny 3/1. The squad isn't amazing at all but home soil will be a huge factor. I'm going to avoid them in my selections.

The biggest problem with Spain & Brazil is that there's a distinct possibility they could play each other in the last 16. If Chile perform well (as expected) they could pip Spain to first place in the group which would mean Spain play Brazil (if as expected Brazil win their group).

I don't see Spain as good value to win the competition because they have a tough draw and teams have begun to be able to nullify a lot of their attacking threat. having said that, the one team Brazil need to avoid is Spain because the Spanish players are the only ones in the competition who won't be phased by facing the hosts. They have so many big game players who have played so many Champions league finals, European Championship Finals, World Cup semi final and finals etc that they won't let the occasion get to them.

I would love to see Spain win the WC because they've produced the best and most sustained period of International football I've ever seen and because they've won me a lot of money in the last 3 competitions but i think they'll come undone against someone they're expected to beat.



I

 

[Pesam]

Other factors to consider are the kick off times and the venues. Even though it's winter in Brazil the north east of the country is hot and humid all year around and they never have lunchtime kick offs in the north east normally as it's too humid but FIFA have insisted because of TV scheduling.

Of the favourites, Germany and Italy come off worst, Italy in particular play all 3 games in very humid conditions and 2 of them at 1pm.
The only team amongst the favourites who are not due to play ANY games in hot/humid conditions are.......my tip- Argentina

 

[Mors]

All my bets will involve south american teams, that climate is going to be a killer.

 

[Athens]

my tip- Argentina

Is that the official Pesam tip?

*Puts savings on the argies*

 

[hamstrung_pigeon]

I think the climate thing will or has become less of a factor with the globalization of the game, i.e. increasingly early exports of talents from South America to Europe. Look at the Brazil and Argentina teams for example - most of these guys train and play at least 10 months a year in Europe. Of course, they still have an advantage in terms of having spent almost a month a year back home (probably), and of having grown up in the environment, but surely all that time spent abroad in colder climates would've eaten somewhat into their advantage. It's still a big advantage, but it's not so overwhelming that it's the main factor that the European teams can't win on that continent.

Otherwise, you wouldn't see the likes of Netherlands and Germany make it to the finals in Argentina and Mexico (okay, Mexico isn't in South America, but it's just as hot I presume, based on what I saw years ago).

 

[Leo]

A few bets I've done so far-Argentina outright winners 11-2 Large bet as I can see them having a fairly untroubled route to the final and will handle the conditions better than most.

Portugal-Outright winners 40-1 small bet-This is a huge price considering they were only beaten on penalties by Spain at Euro 2012.
The defence and midfield has a very solid spine and if Ronaldo is firing anything could happen but lack of a top notch center forward is the worry and that's factored into the huge price.

Top Goalscorers.
Messi 9-1 Could easily get 5 in the group stages given the standard of opposition.

Reus 66-1.Normally Germany have a player who scores a hatful of goals early in the tournament ala Klose and Muller in more recent world cups and hopefully Reus can do the same.Young and improving he could set the tournament alight early on.
Love watching him play.

Raheem Sterling-Top England Goalscorer 25-1.
Now I don't fancy Sterling to score that many but the price is huge considering England might get two goals max this tournament and if Sterling gets just one it would still pay 12.5-1 which is still a nice return.

Australia-Top Goalscorer-No Goalscorer@3-1
This looks a cracking bet as the vibe coming from Australia is that this is as bad an Aussie team that they have ever had.
Very tough group also and if Australia get a goal via an o.g you would still get paid out.

Last bet is Lukaku to be the top Premieship goalscorer in the tournament @16-1.
Looks a good price considering Suarez will most likely have to play on the left of the Uruguay front 3 and I can't see Rooney or DSturridge getting anymore than one each at a push.
Giroud won't start for France and Aguero is just too injury prone to be backing.
I think Lukaku looks a good bet as I can see them sailing out of the group.

 

[ILD]

I like some of them Leo. Good work. I fancy Reus for the craic too.

 

[Pesam]

Is that the official Pesam tip?

*Puts savings on the argies*

Yup, I'm convinced that Messi will shine and given their opening fixtures of Iran, Bosnia & Nigeria they will go into the knockout stage with great momentum. Belgium or Portugal in the quarter finals will be tough and then probably Germany in the semi final but they should avoid Spain or Brazil until the final.

Suarez & Sturridge showed how much Mertesacker struggles with quick, tricky players, he also struggled against Aguero/Negredo and Hazard/Eto'o so if the Argies play Germany in the semi I think Messi/Aguero will have a field day.

I've got £500 @ just over 5/1 to win £2,500 but my plan will be to trade if they get to the semi-final to leave myself no liability and a potential profit of about £1,300-£1,500. I also have £20 on Ivory Coast at 190/1.

 

[Pesam]

I think the climate thing will or has become less of a factor with the globalization of the game, i.e. increasingly early exports of talents from South America to Europe. Look at the Brazil and Argentina teams for example - most of these guys train and play at least 10 months a year in Europe. Of course, they still have an advantage in terms of having spent almost a month a year back home (probably), and of having grown up in the environment, but surely all that time spent abroad in colder climates would've eaten somewhat into their advantage. It's still a big advantage, but it's not so overwhelming that it's the main factor that the European teams can't win on that continent.

Otherwise, you wouldn't see the likes of Netherlands and Germany make it to the finals in Argentina and Mexico (okay, Mexico isn't in South America, but it's just as hot I presume, based on what I saw years ago).

I totally agree and I do think a European team could win the WC but my point about the hot/humid conditions was not just relating to the the European teams. Local teams in the North East of Brazil don't play at 1pm because it's considered too hot/humid but FIFA have scheduled games for this time. Any teams, even those from Africa, Asia etc will struggle in those conditions and the conditions do need to be considered when predicting how teams will do i.e. if Italy don't beat England in their first game I'd be stunned if they qualified from their group because all 3 of their games are in hot/humid conditions and the last 2 are at 1pm.

 

[Pesam]

A few bets I've done so far-Argentina outright winners 11-2 Large bet as I can see them having a fairly untroubled route to the final and will handle the conditions better than most.

Portugal-Outright winners 40-1 small bet-This is a huge price considering they were only beaten on penalties by Spain at Euro 2012.
The defence and midfield has a very solid spine and if Ronaldo is firing anything could happen but lack of a top notch center forward is the worry and that's factored into the huge price.

Top Goalscorers.
Messi 9-1 Could easily get 5 in the group stages given the standard of opposition.

Reus 66-1.Normally Germany have a player who scores a hatful of goals early in the tournament ala Klose and Muller in more recent world cups and hopefully Reus can do the same.Young and improving he could set the tournament alight early on.
Love watching him play.

Raheem Sterling-Top England Goalscorer 25-1.
Now I don't fancy Sterling to score that many but the price is huge considering England might get two goals max this tournament and if Sterling gets just one it would still pay 12.5-1 which is still a nice return.

Australia-Top Goalscorer-No Goalscorer@3-1
This looks a cracking bet as the vibe coming from Australia is that this is as bad an Aussie team that they have ever had.
Very tough group also and if Australia get a goal via an o.g you would still get paid out.

Last bet is Lukaku to be the top Premieship goalscorer in the tournament @16-1.
Looks a good price considering Suarez will most likely have to play on the left of the Uruguay front 3 and I can't see Rooney or DSturridge getting anymore than one each at a push.
Giroud won't start for France and Aguero is just too injury prone to be backing.
I think Lukaku looks a good bet as I can see them sailing out of the group.

I like the Sterling bet Leo. It's going to be a tough group and as you say if England don't score many then 1 goal could lead to a pay off. I might also check out the price of Gary Cahill for the same reason.

I've got messi top goalscorer too but only at 8/1.

 

[Holle]

I like some of them Leo. Good work. I fancy Reus for the craic too.

I'm not convinced about Reus though.

It could well be that he'll be on the bench for most of the time.

He has lots of competition for a spot in the front three in Germany's midfield. There's Özil, Schürrle, Müller, Podolski, Götze too.

Reus has been in great form so far but Löw is renowned for sticking with his guys and especially Podolski is one of his favourites.

So I guess it will be tough for Reus to break into the first XI.

Another chance could be that Klose isn't exactly in great form and that one of the aforementioned players plays as a false nine.

 

[ILD]

Do we think Sterling or Lallana will start? 11/10 just to be picked like.

 

[Holle]

At 33/1 I think Romelu Lukaku could be worth a punt.

Belgium is in Group H with Algeria and South Korea. With Benteke out and him being almost #1 striker by default I could see him score a few especially against those two teams.

They'll proceed to the knock out stages easily too, so I could see him score 5+ goals which could be enough to end up as top scorer.

 

[Athens]

Yup, I'm convinced that Messi will shine and given their opening fixtures of Iran, Bosnia & Nigeria they will go into the knockout stage with great momentum. Belgium or Portugal in the quarter finals will be tough and then probably Germany in the semi final but they should avoid Spain or Brazil until the final.

Suarez & Sturridge showed how much Mertesacker struggles with quick, tricky players, he also struggled against Aguero/Negredo and Hazard/Eto'o so if the Argies play Germany in the semi I think Messi/Aguero will have a field day.

I've got £500 @ just over 5/1 to win £2,500 but my plan will be to trade if they get to the semi-final to leave myself no liability and a potential profit of about £1,300-£1,500. I also have £20 on Ivory Coast at 190/1.

Is there any chance you could host a seminar "betting for dummies" or something similar?

 

[Leo]

I like the Sterling bet Leo. It's going to be a tough group and as you say if England don't score many then 1 goal could lead to a pay off. I might also check out the price of Gary Cahill for the same reason.

I've got messi top goalscorer too but only at 8/1.

40 to 1 is the top price on Cahill.
Could defo be worth a fiver at that price one goal could be enough.

 

[Pesam]

40 to 1 is the top price on Cahill.
Could defo be worth a fiver at that price one goal could be enough.

Thanks Leo, I think Raheem @ 25/1 is probably better value than Cahill @ 40/1.

 

[Pesam]

Is there any chance you could host a seminar "betting for dummies" or something similar?

I did toy with the idea of writing a book but the problem is that you can't teach people how to distinguish between good and bad players (as evidenced by the millions of debates on millions of football websites). It's 90% about being a good judge of footballers and most of us think we are but most of us are wrong. The other essentials are; never bet more than you can afford to lose, don't bet for the sake of it i.e try and be as selective as possible (I struggle with this sometimes) and thirdly only bet on games featuring teams you've watched recently.

Unfortunately if you follow those last 3 criteria and still lose betting on football then you're probably not that good a judge of footballers/teams.

 

[ILD]

Being a good judge of footballers has nothing to do with in my opinion mate. A good player can miss a chance or concede an OG. Anything can happen in the 90 mins play. Some people 'gamble' for the fun of it. Sometimes I throw on a few first goal scorer bets for interest sake. I'll go with a hunch mostly or who ever I fancy at the time.

However, saying that, I rarely do big bets and If I did I would be a lot more selective obviously.

 

[Athens]

The other essentials are; never bet more than you can afford to lose, don't bet for the sake of it i.e try and be as selective as possible (I struggle with this sometimes) and thirdly only bet on games featuring teams you've watched recently.

I've got those three nailed on the head. It's the other stuff I need to work on!

 

[Pesam]

Being a good judge of footballers has nothing to do with in my opinion mate. A good player can miss a chance or concede an OG. Anything can happen in the 90 mins play. Some people 'gamble' for the fun of it. Sometimes I throw on a few first goal scorer bets for interest sake. I'll go with a hunch mostly or who ever I fancy at the time.

However, saying that, I rarely do big bets and If I did I would be a lot more selective obviously.

Definitely, I'm all for betting for a bit of fun and if that's the case then all my previous shite is "out the window". What I was referring to was if someone actually wanted to bet more seriously, and given that over 80% (betfair statistic) of punters betting on football lose, betting for fun is much the better option.

 

[Spaghetti Legs]

Betting on England centre backs to score is definately worth a punt especially when you factor in Gerrards set piece delivery, any bets involving them scoring will be good value.

Lescott, Upson, Ferdinand, Campbell have all scored goals in recent(ish) tournements.

 

[Dreambeliever]

All South American final.

Columbia to make the final

Argentina to win it

England to fail to get out off the group

Messi top goal scorer

Ivory Coast to make the q/f

 

[Leo]

Fuck sake I'm ripping up me dockets now.

 

[Jürgen4PM]

Winner/Top scorer

Argies/Hig 45/1
Brazil/Hulk 36/1

Top scorer Dzeko 84/1, Lukaku 50/1

Winner Bel 26/1, Brazil 3.5/1 and Argies 6/1

Most cards France 21/1

Germans to beat Ghana, Japan to beat Greece, Brazil to beat Coratia and Chile to beat Australia at 10/1