Here is my attempt at estimating the likelihood of each of our first team (senior only) players leaving this summer. Feel free to offer your estimation.
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Alisson 20% Entirely depends on Alli and whether he wants a new challenge – surely LFC will not push the best GK in the world out of the door. That PSG away performance put any doubts about potential decline to bed. I think he says for 1 more season.
Kelleher 80% Unless the club makes a U-turn on the Mamardashvili purchase or Alisson decides to leave, it’s hard to see Irish Kevin staying. Good luck to him!
Virgil 0%
Konate 40%
Gomez 60% I think Gomez might want to explore a new challenge, but if Konate’s contract impasse proves unresolvable and we are forced to sell Ibu to PSG, surely the club will hold on to Gomez. So I think one of Gomez or Konate is almost definitely leaving and the other is almost definitely staying.
Quansah 0%
Trent 80% Barring a last-minute U-turn, we all know what’s going to happen.
Bradley 0%
Tsimikas 65%
Robertson 35% Much like with the Konate/Gomez situation, I think one of our LBs will stay and the other will go. Keeping Robbo seemed like a no-brainer, but the fact that Tsimikas is finishing the season as first-choice just as his best friend Mo has signed a new deal makes me think it’s not so clear-cut yet. Financially, the club might quite like the idea of keeping Tsimikas as a back-up on far less money than Robbo is earning. On the other hand, replacing Robbo’s leadership and experience won’t be so easy. This will be a big decision among many this summer.
Gravenberch 0%
Endo 40% I think Endo has won Slot over to some extent and the decision whether to stay or leave would be entirely up to him, whether he values the chance of winning trophies over regular playing time. If I were him, I would stay.
Szoboszlai 0%
Mac Allister 5% Only if Real Madrid suddenly decides they desperately need Mac Allister in their life. Still might happen, but probably not this season.
Jones 5% We need homegrown players; I can only see us selling if someone offers silly money.
Elliott 75% Sadly, Slot doesn’t seem to rate him. He will leave with the Premier League winners’ medal – far from the worst way to end this chapter for a boyhood fan.
Salah 0%
Gakpo 0%
Diaz 40%
Jota 50% There is a case for selling 4 out of our 6 forwards, but I cannot imagine that the club will want to let all 4 go in one summer. So with Chiesa and Nunez almost certain to leave, probably only one of Diaz or Jota will be sold and there is even a small chance that both will stay if we can’t get a good enough replacement.
Chiesa 75% There is a case for giving him one more season to try to prove his fitness; his attitude is superb and talent not in question. Just hard to see it with him not even making the squad lately.
Nunez 90% I think everyone is ready to move on; that training spat or whatever it was probably sealed it.
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So from this rough estimate, it seems the club will need to replace 6-7 senior players, not counting the back-up GK: a CB, a RB, a LB, an AM and 2 or 3 forwards/wingers – that’s quite a lot for one summer and for that reason I think borderline cases such as Endo or Diaz/Jota might be decided in favour of keeping, just to minimize the churn. Also I wonder if there might be any opportunities to promote from within: maybe Bajcetic can be one and at a stretch Nyoni for Elliott? Doesn’t seem like there are many more youngsters that will be ready to take over (not counting Bradley for Trent, which is already built-in, but he will need back-up/competition), so that gives us an idea of how many signings to expect. This promises to be a busy summer!
