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Aston Villa vs Liverpool (Saturday 5.30pm)

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Rory Fitzgerald

Rory Fitzgerald

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One of my favourite goals from last season: ​
GIF of goal courtesy of @FeintZebra​

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General Form
Aston Villa picked up 20pts last season from 19 home games with a record of W5 D5 L9 which was 4th worst home record in the leagueand the same number of points that a poor Reading side managed to pick up at home. In fact, they picked up 1pt more away from home last season (21pts) which could be reflective of their preferred style of play i.e. counter-attacking. However, since January/February, Villa's fortunes changed and they were a top 8 side on form in the last few months of the season.

Possession
At home, Villa's average possession was 47.3% which ranked 13th against other teams in the league at home. Their ball retention is also below average at 78% when playing at home (though they are an average / below average team). Part of the reason for that was that they were not shy about hitting their attackers early and looking to play off Benteke with Agbonlahor and Wiemann giving good support. Villa took the lead at home against Liverpool last season with this tactic. Agbonlahor ended up winning the ball from Westwood's 50 yard long 'pass/ball' which Benteke smashed in from the edge of the area. In this instance there was a sizeable gap between their midfield & attack. There was no interest in Agbonlahor or Wiemann dropping off to receive the ball rather they were happy for midfield to hit Benteke and try to take advantage of a 3 on 4 situation.
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Also, against Arsenal when Koscielny picked up his 2nd yellow card, Villa won the ball back on the edge of their area and El Ahmadi, almost without looking, hit a high long ball to Benteke who pulled to Villa's right. Benteke won the ball and immediately had support from Wiemann who collected his the knock down. Wiemann was then fouled by Koscielny as he tried to cut inside.

Below is a graphic of Villa's long balls against Liverpool at Villa Park. Not all were pure direct balls as seen by Stoke last season (not so much last week though) but of those direct balls from deep defence, they were aimed to their left. This is generally because Benteke operated from this side in last season's game. Lucas tried to negate this tactic by standing on Benteke's toes to try stop him pulling it down on his chest or make the flick on more difficult. Hopefully the same tactic is employed again by Liverpool. In that game, Lucas competed for 6 headers whereas Carragher and Johnson (who were on the right of defence competed for 4 between them, Agger actually competed for 11 !!). With Toure a willing competitor in the air and operating on the right, Benteke should not have it all his own way in the air if he is largely going to operate by drifting left of center.
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Despite the ability of Benteke in the air, Villa only scored 7 headed goals with the average across the league being 10 headed goals per team (Liverpool were bang on the average with 10). In terms of their potentcy from set pieces, again Villa were average and Liverpool scored the same number of goals (8) from crossed free kicks & corners.


Attack
Benteke was a massive influence on Villa's season last year. He accounted for 40% of their goals overall(19 of the 47) and at home, that stat increased even more (to 48%) as he scored 11 goals of the 23 Aston Villa scored at home last season. Only Van Persie scored more home goals last season (12) than Benteke. Their regular front trio of Agbonlahor (9), Benteke (19) and Wiemann (7) scored 35 goals between them which is a significant amount given that the team as a whole scored 47 goals last season.


Intercept & Counter
One aspect of Villa's play from last season was their desire to counter attackswiftly when they won the ball back or intercepted a pass. When a team has a midfield with the likes of Delph, Westwood, Sylla & Bannon and an attack with Benteke, Agbonlahor & Wiemann, its not surprising that they try get the ball to their attackers quickly rather than try recycle possession with average midfielders (as outlined already with the below average possession stats). However, they are also willing to push Lowton forward and Luna was not shy about attacking on his debut at Arsenal.

Villa had the 2nd highest amount of interceptions with players like Lowton, Delph and Westwood ranking high in the interception stats. They averaged 20.2 interceptions per game last season but given Liverpool's short passing game, the opportunity for interceptions rose and they cut out 39 balls in the game last season. They don't stand off in midfield and work hard to win the ball back. Their possession stats are just below average because they focus on pace and quick passes when they can rather than recycle possession.

They were also one of the biggest offenders when it came being caught offside with Benteke being the player caught offside most often last season (50 times). This could be further evidence of Villa looking to spring a defence early once they regain possession.

Defence
Villa had the 3rd worst defensive recordlast season conceding 69 goals, just 4 better Reading & Wigan with 15 of those goals being conceded in the 3 games after beating Liverpool at Anfield (Chelsea 8-0, Spurs 4-0, Wigan 3-0). There was also a 5-0 defeat to Man City as well. Even still, if those 20 goals were removed from the record, Villa's defence still had problems as they kept the fewest clean sheets in the leaguelast season along with Reading and Wigan (just 5 from 38 games). The average no. of clean sheets in the league last season was 10 so Villa were well below this average. Below is an example of how Villa were punished when Lowton was caught very high up the pitch. Villa lost the ball yet Lowton still pursued Wilshire into the corner thus leaving himself too much to do when Arsenal worked the ball out of defence. It meant a center half had to move over to try cover Oxlade Chamberlain but got done for pace leaving Giroud with plenty of space in the box against 1 defender for him to get on the end of the cross.
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Look at Hendersons goallast year (gif link above). Lowton was caught high up the pitch and Gerrard put the ball into space in the right back area for Coutinho to chase. Whilst Lowton gave good chase to Coutinho, Ron Vlaar left his spot at center back to cover the space and Suarez movement to that side dragged the other center half over. It gave an opportunity for the brilliance of Coutinho to exploit when he checked back - there was now a massive hole in Villa's defence and it stemmed from 2 great players (Gerrard hitting Coutinho) moving the ball quickly to exploit the full back's positioning.

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Part 2


Line-Ups
Here is how the teams lined up last April at Villa Park. Villa in blue, Liverpool in orange.

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Liverpool were 1-0 down going in at half time and stepped up the performance in the 2nd half. The full backs featured heavily that day . What I liked about that performance in the 2nd half was how well the left side worked. Henderson did alot of work to allow Enrique & Coutinho (before he was subbed) to attack and also made the run for equaliser. The graphic below highlights just how prevalent the full backs were in the game with plenty of touches and passes in the oppositions half.

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Below is a graphic from Villa's opening day game away at Arsenal. Given that Villa got their act together at the end of last season with this set up, it is of little surprise that Lambert set up with same system for the new season. Westwood sits in the center of midfield and the other 2 players take it in turns to press the opposition (it was Delph and El Ahmadi against Arsenal).

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Conclusion
Whilst Villa like to counter attack, they are not a team that sits off and tries to soak pressure and then hit. They are likely to work hard in midfield and press near the half way line to try force errors. When in possession, if the quick counter attack is not on, they generally allow one or both full backs to join the attack which enables Agbonlahor and Wiemann to get closer to Benteke. With this in mind, Lucas could be a key player in providing support to the back line when (a) Johnson & Enrique go forward, (b) standing in front of Benteke at goal kicks, but also when (c) Villa's full backs move forward and Agbonlahor and Wiemann come inside thus giving Toure & Agger a headache with Benteke also to look after.

Liverpool are likely to dominate possession and given the amount of chances that the team has created in games since the arrival of Coutinho & Sturridge combined with Villa failing to keep a clean sheet since last December (worst in the league), then Liverpool are likely to get enough chances to win the game. However, Villa have been consistent scorers of late as well and created some good chances against Liverpool at Villa Park last season. If the game is tight going into the last 10mins, Villa conceded the most goals in this period last season (14 goals) and with Liverpool having attacking options on the bench (Borini, Sterling, Ibe), a late winner cannot be ruled out.

Referee: Mark Clattenburg

Prediction: Head says 1-1, heart says 2-1 Liverpool.

http://roryfitz9.webnode.com/news/aston-villa/
 
Fair play, Rory. Love reading your pre-match posts.

As for Saturday, I think our biggest problem, obvious as it is, is containing Benteke. After seeing Toure on Saturday, I'm confident he's up to the job. Agger on the other hand, while he played well on Saturday, well you just never know for sure how he'll handle the pressure. But if we can keep him at bay, I predict a decent win for us.
 
I am hoping Arsenal put a bid in for Benteke just before the match. They probably should have done it on Saturday.
 
Good read, Rory - Thanks mate.

Can't decide if we want Villa to get something outta Chelsea or take a beating? This is their Villa Park opener, so that should have them all amped up, but would them full of confidence, thinking "we've just done the arse and gotten something at the bridge, we have these" be better for us than a team who's licking their wounds after a solid defeat, but ready for some home cooking be better for us? Either way, we should be a little fresher, though they looked a lot stronger than we did in the final 15 minutes last Saturday.

What do yiz think?
 
Whaddapie said:
Good read, Rory - Thanks mate.

Can't decide if we want Villa to get something outta Chelsea or take a beating? This is their Villa Park opener, so that should have them all amped up, but would them full of confidence, thinking "we've just done the arse and gotten something at the bridge, we have these" be better for us than a team who's licking their wounds after a solid defeat, but ready for some home cooking be better for us? Either way, we should be a little fresher, though they looked a lot stronger than we did in the final 15 minutes last Saturday.

What do yiz think?
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toughie, how about a draw?
 
I think tonights game will give us a better indicator. I think they were a bit lucky against the arse, it could have all gone shit shaped for them and they made the best of a few chances.
 
Benteke is becoming quite the monster player, isn't he? Kudos to Paul Lambert for building a great-to-watch side and they have had two good performances on the bounce against two top sides.

I think our passing has looked sharper and more incisive than Chelsea's and we'll create more clear-cut opportunities on goal, but we have to be absolutely clinical to take away any glory. I'm cautiously optimistic about our chances and predict a 3-1 win.

After the manner of our victory against Stoke, a good result against Villa can really take our morale places.
 
They're exactly the sort of side we struggled against this time last year, pace and power through the middle opens us up far too easily, particularly with players like Delph and Benteke. The key will be keeping him quiet, you literally can't give him a sniff because he's incisive and clinical. At the back though they're still relatively inexperienced and there for the taking, we just have to make sure we start putting these chances away.
 
Terrific pre-match analysis Rory. If Lucas has a great game, then we have every chance. However, I really can smell defeat, much as I hate to say it. It could be another big game for Mingolet. If he can stop a couple of the clear cut chances that Benteke will surely get, then you do fancy us to nick one or two against them.
 
This is going to be a very hard game, we need to score, and score early. Enrique needs to keep Agbonlahor in check, and Toure really needs to keep Benteke out of the game. This will be a very hard match.
 
Also, someone needs to keep an eye on the crafty little late runs from Weimann, he's very dangerous, and has an annoying habit of showing up in the right place at the right time.
 
This is going to be a really intriguing one. For me, the key is going to be Mignolet's play.

I imagine he's going to have to bail us out a few times, lets just hope he comes through.
 
I wonder whether Hendo will get the nod over Allen again? If so, I hope he isn't put off from missing a few and keeps making those runs in attacking positions. He could easily score 10 goals from midfield this year if he backs himself. For some reason I suspect Rodgers will play Allen against them, but I hope not.
 
doctor_mac said:
I wonder whether Hendo will get the nod over Allen again? If so, I hope he isn't put off from missing a few and keeps making those runs in attacking positions. He could easily score 10 goals from midfield this year if he backs himself. For some reason I suspect Rodgers will play Allen against them, but I hope not.
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Yep, prefer a winning side to be kept. Henderson should have been more clinical against Stoke but he was unbelievably unlucky at times against Bergovic's MOM saves. In a team needing goals, he's a better bet than Allen at the moment.
 
Time for a song and dance said:
Yep, prefer a winning side to be kept. Henderson should have been more clinical against Stoke but he was unbelievably unlucky at times against Bergovic's MOM saves. In a team needing goals, he's a better bet than Allen at the moment.
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Allen really seemed to be trying to play more aggressive in preseason, which is a welcome sign.

I figure one of them will get injured and we'll get our decision made for us though. I also wonder if LAR will get a chance at this role.
 
Two keys to the game:

1) Control Benteke (as Roland and others have said)
2) Contain the middle (if you watch Carra on Sky, he basically noted how much they press in the middle). If we can contain this pressure, their defense isn't that good and we'll create chances.

Won't be an easy game - this is an up and coming team like us with a good young manager, and a hungry team. Will be a good game, and I think we can pull out a victory.
 
Whirly said:
Allen really seemed to be trying to play more aggressive in preseason, which is a welcome sign.

I figure one of them will get injured and we'll get our decision made for us though. I also wonder if LAR will get a chance at this role.
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A welcome sign it is. Rodgers believes Allen has more to offer further forward than we've seen so far. I think Alberto, once he adjusts to the league, can be smashing in that role. More strings to his bow, like dribbling, long shots, a final pass, composure in the final third.
 
LeTallecWiz said:
Two keys to the game:

1) Control Benteke (as Roland and others have said)
2) Contain the middle (if you watch Carra on Sky, he basically noted how much they press in the middle). If we can contain this pressure, their defense isn't that good and we'll create chances.

Won't be an easy game - this is an up and coming team like us with a good young manager, and a hungry team. Will be a good game, and I think we can pull out a victory.
Click to expand...


I wonder if we'll continue with the high pressing game we used against Stoke, where Lucas was sweeping things up in the opponents' half. Because Villa certainly have more pace and counterattacking nous to them than the Potters.
 
Whirly said:
Allen really seemed to be trying to play more aggressive in preseason, which is a welcome sign.

I figure one of them will get injured and we'll get our decision made for us though. I also wonder if LAR will get a chance at this role.
Click to expand...
Who the fuck is LAR?
 
A bit worried about the midfield battle, seeing how good Delph was last night, a huge game for Lucas this.

Oh and for Toure and Agger, because that Benteke lad is a monster, meant in the most positive way.

Overall it seems like Lambert is doing a really good job with his team, but as has been said their defense in not only young also quite new, which we can exploit with a lot of movement and skill upfront. Could be a great game for Aspas.
 
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