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CL Table and Final 16

Frogfish

Gone to Redcafe
Member
It will be interesting to see how the final 2-3 matches pan out but there should be no way we'll concede top place from here with Lille and PSV our last two matches.

Liverpool will enter the last-16 draw as one of the seeded teams and face one of the winning teams that make it through the play-offs. The finishing positions in the table determine the seeding position and each club’s path through the knockout rounds. In theory, the higher a team finishes in the league phase ranking, the less likely they are to face their closest rivals from the league phase.

However, there are no extra benefits when it comes to facing teams coming through the play-off round meaning that Liverpool could be drawn against 15x champions Real Madrid if the La Liga champions fail to finish inside the top eight.

Remember that :
  • A top 16 team can't meet another top 16 team in the playoffs
  • A top 8 team won't face another top 8 team in the RO16
  • A top 4 team will avoid the other top 4 teams until semi-finals
  • The only game where the #1 and the #2 teams could meet is at the final
The draw for the Champions League last-16, as well as the rest of the knockout rounds, takes place on February 21 2025, after the conclusion of the play-off phase.

REMAINING MATCHES
LFC : (H) Lille, (A) PSV
City : (A) Juve, (A) PSG, (H) Brugge
Arsenal : (H) Monaco, (H) Zagreb, (A) Girona
Villa : (A) Monaco, (H) Celtic
Real Madrid : (H) RB Salzburg, (A) Brest,

So clearly Arsenal will make the Top 8. City however have a real fight on their hands ! Highly likely Barca, Bayern, Inter and Leverkusen will also make Top 8 so we'll avoid any chance of meeting them in the Last 16. It is also highly unlikely Real can make Top 8 from here and almost certainly neither Juve nor PSG can. Those 3 could be (dangerous) wild cards for the Last 16.

2024–25 season, the distribution of the prize money is as follows (rough calculation, we are guaranteed at least £38m so far, that's a long way towards buying Zubi or A.N.Other in January, especially if we make the last 8 and another £10.6m) :


Stage + Prize Money

League phase qualification
£15.7m ($20.7m) League-phase draw
£590,000 ($780,000) League-phase win
£1.8m ($2.3m) Top-eight league-phase finish
£1.7m ($2.2m) Ninth to 16th league-phase finish
£0.9m ($1.1m) Round of 16
£9.3m ($12.2m) Quarter-final
£10.6m ($13.9m) Semi-final
£12.7m ($16.7m) Runner-up
£15.6m ($20.6m) Final
£21.1m ($27.8m)
 
that 29th of jan fixture night could be taaaaaaasty. Last game of the season vibes. TNT or prime absolutely going to be having a constantly fluctuating table as the matches go on
 
Looking at who we have left we should be able to rotate like mad and every player we put out should get into the first team of Lille and PSV.
 
Yeah, I was looking at this for a bit this arvo.

City will likely make it through as one of the top 24 by winning 1 more game, but their next two are west y to Juve and away to PSG who desperately need the win too.

City might make top 8 if they win all 3, and 2 wins would likely get them top 16.

I hoping City and Real draw each other in the play off round and then City get someone like Inter, Barca or Arse (if they can in the round of 16).

I’d like to see someone take Atl Madrid out - another team I hate playing.

Lot can happen in the second half of the season.
 
For what it's worth. The table is so mixed up, that after 8 games I dont think there's much advantage in the seedings. Just get the bye weeks.

Perhaps a real tangible benefit would be highest seed is always home second leg.
 
For what it's worth. The table is so mixed up, that after 8 games I dont think there's much advantage in the seedings. Just get the bye weeks.
Yep, we'd really be lucky if we manage to get an easy draw.
 
For what it's worth. The table is so mixed up, that after 8 games I dont think there's much advantage in the seedings. Just get the bye weeks.

Perhaps a real tangible benefit would be highest seed is always home second leg.
Actually I think that is a thing! I maybe wrong.
 
Adding this here out of interest. Yes of course it's just January and a lot can happen in terms of form, injuries etc.


Screenshot-2025-01-22-at-12-52-54.png
 
Inter 14/1 is crazy odds, might take a punt on that myself.

Set piece FC joint 2nd favourites is the most laughable thing I've ever seen.
 
I would love Inter to draw Atletico at some stage, at least then 1 low block team is out. Barca play way too open and a low block team could knock them out.
If Man City beat Brugge they will qualify. If we win the next game we would get €16.8m in prize money plus I think €12m for getting to the round of 16.
 
Wait till @Beamrider poopoos those figures
I reckon that's probably about right. The fixed figures are all correct and the co-efficient is not far off my guesstimate.
There is some element of estimation in the value pillar as I don't think you can do that 100% on public information (you need to know the value of media deals, country by country), but I had us at about €105m assuming we win our next game and top the group.

EDIT - if we assume every game next week goes 1-0 to the team currently highest in the table, we get €103m (and City get knocked out).
 
I reckon that's probably about right. The fixed figures are all correct and the co-efficient is not far off my guesstimate.
There is some element of estimation in the value pillar as I don't think you can do that 100% on public information (you need to know the value of media deals, country by country), but I had us at about €105m assuming we win our next game and top the group.

EDIT - if we assume every game next week goes 1-0 to the team currently highest in the table, we get €103m (and City get knocked out).
Any thoughts on the £14m wage increase reported by Deloitte despite not qualifying for CL?
 
Any thoughts on the £14m wage increase reported by Deloitte despite not qualifying for CL?
I was surprised too, but it isn't necessarily all players, there could be staff in there too, and possibly some chunky bonuses for the commercial team, given the strong growth in that area, plus more matchday staff with the expansion of the ground.
I also reckon there could be some big agent fees in there too. We'd not bought a lot of players in the previous few years, so a return to transfer activity with the midfield re-build could have triggered chunky agency costs, particularly on the Mac Allister deal where the fee may have been front-loaded (it was rumoured we had exercised a release clause which is typically paid in full, and we may have had to do the same with the agent fee too). Bear in mind that the players who left probably weren't still having agent fees paid for them (typically only years 1-3 of their contracts) so they could have cost less than the guys who replaced them, especially as they wouldn't have got much in performance bonuses as they were mostly injured.
And whilst there wouldn't be Champions League premium for salaries, there would be CL qualification bonuses, and those numbers will off-set to some degree.

So in summary:

Prior year; less
Champions League salary premium; less
Expiring contracts / sales; plus
CL qualification bonuses; plus
Staff bonuses; plus
Extra staff for the Annie Road; plus
New midfield; plus
Agent fees for new midfield

Could conceivably equal an increase.
 
I was surprised too, but it isn't necessarily all players, there could be staff in there too, and possibly some chunky bonuses for the commercial team, given the strong growth in that area, plus more matchday staff with the expansion of the ground.
I also reckon there could be some big agent fees in there too. We'd not bought a lot of players in the previous few years, so a return to transfer activity with the midfield re-build could have triggered chunky agency costs, particularly on the Mac Allister deal where the fee may have been front-loaded (it was rumoured we had exercised a release clause which is typically paid in full, and we may have had to do the same with the agent fee too). Bear in mind that the players who left probably weren't still having agent fees paid for them (typically only years 1-3 of their contracts) so they could have cost less than the guys who replaced them, especially as they wouldn't have got much in performance bonuses as they were mostly injured.
And whilst there wouldn't be Champions League premium for salaries, there would be CL qualification bonuses, and those numbers will off-set to some degree.

So in summary:

Prior year; less
Champions League salary premium; less
Expiring contracts / sales; plus
CL qualification bonuses; plus
Staff bonuses; plus
Extra staff for the Annie Road; plus
New midfield; plus
Agent fees for new midfield

Could conceivably equal an increase.


Slobbers was a release clause too - that might explain it.
 
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