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"There are lies, damned lies and statistics"

Judge Jules

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Member
...someone once said.

Was listening to Neil Worncock on the radio this morning. He said when he was at Palace he tried to sign Virgil from Celtic and Virgil was keen on the move, then the Palace board vetoed it because, according to the analysis by their stats people, Virgil was too slow!

Stats - what place should they have in assessing players?
 
...someone once said.

Was listening to Neil Worncock on the radio this morning. He said when he was at Palace he tried to sign Virgil from Celtic and Virgil was keen on the move, then the Palace board vetoed it because, according to the analysis by their stats people, Virgil was too slow!

Stats - what place should they have in assessing players?

Stats have a huge role to play in assessing players. What's an uncommon trait in football however is how to interpret the stats.

The numbers aren't the be all and end all, but they absolutely can help you target the right type of player
 
From memory, Warnock said that Virgil van Dijk was so positionally intelligent he never needed to sprint. That kind of detail was lost on the analysis guy, which is why the eye test, especially when used by someone with years of experience, still holds value. However, managers like Warnock are unlikely to share stories about times they ignored the data and ended up with a poor signing, or when they missed out on a player who had been flagged through a data-led approach. There is often an element of ego and self-preservation among the old-school managers.

I’m no expert, but for me, there are five key factors that are equally important in helping a player succeed at the next level: data, suitability for the system, the eye test, personality and temperament, and athleticism or injury record. One of Klopp’s greatest strengths was his ability to recognise the value in all these areas. He embraced working with people in with specialist knowledge, trusted their insights, and used that to form a complete picture of each player. Once the power dynamics were right, the approach worked incredibly well for most of his time at the club. Towards the end of his tenure, things started to go awry when the backroom team was leaving. Keeping some players for too long and signings like Nunez or Minamino suggest that even the very best can place too much faith in what they see, or blind loyalty, rather than balancing it with the full picture and having the opportunity to be challenged on key decisions.
 
From memory, Warnock once said that Virgil van Dijk was so positionally intelligent he never needed to sprint. That kind of detail was lost on the analysis guy, which is why the eye test, especially when used by someone with years of experience, still holds value. However, managers like Warnock are unlikely to share stories about times they ignored the data and ended up with a poor signing, or when they missed out on a player who had been flagged through a data-led approach. There is often an element of ego and self-preservation among the old-school managers.

Yup. I was going to say similar - managers like Warnock can be interesting to listen to and quite engaging but I wouldn't treat much of what they say as gospel.

As for stats, if you've got all the stats in front of you and come to the conclusion that VVD is slow, then perhaps the usage of stats is not for you.

It's all very boring and standard corporate stuff but you need a proper framework in place with the right people and processes and buy-in from the top. Then the whole data-driven thing can become quite powerful.
 
I detest all these algorithms, stats etc that are used regularly to “spot” talent. The best way to spot talent is to watch lots of football and understand the game.
 
I think it'd blow our minds if we really knew what went on in our data dept. Will Spearman and Ian Graham were both Doctors (PhDs) of Physics, which is pretty big-brain stuff. I reckon we're lightyears ahead of anyone else, as you'd expect from the inventors of Moneyball.

I read that we use the usual stats - xG, shots etc - but overlay an AI analysis of the position of players, so you have the proper context for the decisions / actions a player took. It is like doing the eye test but with actual numbers falling out of it, instead of a scouts subjective 'this lads good at shooting' opinion.

As for fans comparing xG etc, I'm much less convinced, especially when it stops people using their own eyes.
 
I think it'd blow our minds if we really knew what went on in our data dept. Will Spearman and Ian Graham were both Doctors (PhDs) of Physics, which is pretty big-brain stuff. I reckon we're lightyears ahead of anyone else, as you'd expect from the inventors of Moneyball.

I read that we use the usual stats - xG, shots etc - but overlay an AI analysis of the position of players, so you have the proper context for the decisions / actions a player took. It is like doing the eye test but with actual numbers falling out of it, instead of a scouts subjective 'this lads good at shooting' opinion.

As for fans comparing xG etc, I'm much less convinced, especially when it stops people using their own eyes.

On a general note it's worth noting that as clever / good as people can be in their specific domains, it doesn't always translate to others.
 
I think in practice that scouting and data go hand in hand these days - the data will point the scouts towards players to check-out and the scouts will ask the data department to confirm their findings if they find someone by chance, but we still need both.
And since Sami Hyypia has been mentioned, I'm sure I read years ago that the scouts found him by accident - they'd gone to scout Oliver Bierhoff in a Germany / Finland game and Sami marked him out of the game.
 
Ian Graham went to great lengths to point out that you don’t rely solely on data when assessing a player when he was pushing his book about a year ago.

I just get round to reading that book… I have one called “Intensity” that I also never got round to reading.
 
Ian Graham went to great lengths to point out that you don’t rely solely on data when assessing a player when he was pushing his book about a year ago.

I just get round to reading that book… I have one called “Intensity” that I also never got round to reading.
I really enjoyed Ian Graham's book.
It was a bit nerdy at times but for the most part interesting and enlightening.
 
On a general note it's worth noting that as clever / good as people can be in their specific domains, it doesn't always translate to others.
Sure, but physics is about analysing big data, understanding any limitations and improving the quality of the data, so it is fairly comparable really.
 
Statistics, big data, etc are just tools.

You need to know how to use them and, like the latest tools (ie AI), use them incorrectly and you get shit.

But you have to use the latest tools to remain ahead or give you an edge over others.
 
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