the all seeing eye that is FM has opined!
Football Manager sim predicts how the season will end. Spoiler alert!
What surprises does the close of this fascinating football season have in store? We asked the makers of Football Manager to simulate the final matches
Liverpool manager Brendan Rodgers (L) and Manchester City manager Manuel Pellegrini both aiming for the top of the league, but which does Football Manager think will be successful? Photograph: Jason Cairnduff/Action Images
And so the football season is gearing up for another dramatic conclusion, the Premiership moving into its final three matches, the title still up for grabs and relegation places grimly beckoning. No one can possibly know what will happen next.
Or can they?
With its complex tactical engine, based closely on real-life data, Football Manager claims to be the most authentic sports management simulation ever devised. Wannabe-Mourinhos spend more time playing it on the PC gaming platform Steam than any other title on the service, and the accuracy and depth of its 300,000-strong player database is such that it's rumoured to be used by professional scouts seeking out the next big superstars. In 2008, Everton even signed a deal to get unrivaled access to the game's statistics.
But how accurate is the game as a gauge of the real sport? To find out, the Guardian asked the series' developer Sports Interactive to run the end-of-season fixtures for England's four main leagues, plus the FA Cup and Champions League, through their engine. The team coded in all the correct fixtures, the likely squad selections and the prefered tactics of every side, and then let it run.
Here's what football's biggest computer brain came up with.
The Barclays Premiership
The Premier league
No surprises here, perhaps. According to Football Manager, Liverpool will be crowned champions for the first time in 24 years.
“In the crunch top-two clash against Chelsea, Suarez gives Liverpool an early lead before a Salah equaliser midway through the second half," says Sports Interactive's football analyst, Tom Davidson, about the crucial forthcoming fixture. "With the game seemingly heading towards a draw, Chelsea fail to react to a Liverpool counter-attack and Coutinho coolly slots the ball past Schwarzer with eleven minutes left on the clock. The Reds then go on to draw 1-1 against Palace to all but secure the title.”
Perhaps the best part of Football Manager 2014, however, is how surprisingly accurate it can be about the personality of players and managers. “The in-game Mourinho’s reaction to the Liverpool victory was less than complimentary; he criticised Liverpool’s physicality on the pitch before refusing to answer any questions about his own players.” Wow, it really is accurate.
According to our simulation, Liverpool will end 2014 unbeaten, wrapping up their season with a 2-0 win against Newcastle. Luis Suarez will take his goal tally for the season to 33 and Brendan Rodgers is named Manager of the Year.
As for the rest? Mourinho's focus on the Champion's League, as well as injuries to Cech and Terry, see Chelsea pipped to second position by a rejuvenated Manchester City. “City themselves should have finished with a better points total,” note the Sports Interactive wizards, “but a misjudged backpass from Demichelis against Aston Villa allowed Agbonlahor to steal all three points.”
Everton falter at the last, drawing at Southampton and then beaten by Manchester City – which allows Arsenal to secure Champions League football yet again. The most priceless nugget in our simulated match? “Ashley Young was brought on as a sub against Southampton," says Davidson. "He was booked for diving."
Joining the Toffees in the Europa League are Tottenham, who pip Manchester United to 6th place. Despite Giggsy in the dugout, the Red Devils end a disappointing campaign with defeats to Hull and Southampton.
So that's the big boys. At the other end of the table, Sunderland stage a comeback for the ages by securing four points from their final four games and surviving on goal difference. “Adam Johnson’s brace in a 2-1 victory over West Brom proves to be the deciding factor in the relegation battle," says Davidson.
A final-day loss for the Black Cats against Swansea isn't quite enough for Norwich who, despite drawing 1-1 with Chelsea, take a 3-0 pounding from Arsenal. Meanwhile Cardiff and Fulham can't get out of the drawing habit, and both have a winless final three games and finish rooted to the bottom of the table.
Champions: Liverpool
Relegated: Norwich, Cardiff, Fulham
Football Manager sim predicts how the season will end. Spoiler alert!
What surprises does the close of this fascinating football season have in store? We asked the makers of Football Manager to simulate the final matches
And so the football season is gearing up for another dramatic conclusion, the Premiership moving into its final three matches, the title still up for grabs and relegation places grimly beckoning. No one can possibly know what will happen next.
Or can they?
With its complex tactical engine, based closely on real-life data, Football Manager claims to be the most authentic sports management simulation ever devised. Wannabe-Mourinhos spend more time playing it on the PC gaming platform Steam than any other title on the service, and the accuracy and depth of its 300,000-strong player database is such that it's rumoured to be used by professional scouts seeking out the next big superstars. In 2008, Everton even signed a deal to get unrivaled access to the game's statistics.
But how accurate is the game as a gauge of the real sport? To find out, the Guardian asked the series' developer Sports Interactive to run the end-of-season fixtures for England's four main leagues, plus the FA Cup and Champions League, through their engine. The team coded in all the correct fixtures, the likely squad selections and the prefered tactics of every side, and then let it run.
Here's what football's biggest computer brain came up with.
The Barclays Premiership
No surprises here, perhaps. According to Football Manager, Liverpool will be crowned champions for the first time in 24 years.
“In the crunch top-two clash against Chelsea, Suarez gives Liverpool an early lead before a Salah equaliser midway through the second half," says Sports Interactive's football analyst, Tom Davidson, about the crucial forthcoming fixture. "With the game seemingly heading towards a draw, Chelsea fail to react to a Liverpool counter-attack and Coutinho coolly slots the ball past Schwarzer with eleven minutes left on the clock. The Reds then go on to draw 1-1 against Palace to all but secure the title.”
Perhaps the best part of Football Manager 2014, however, is how surprisingly accurate it can be about the personality of players and managers. “The in-game Mourinho’s reaction to the Liverpool victory was less than complimentary; he criticised Liverpool’s physicality on the pitch before refusing to answer any questions about his own players.” Wow, it really is accurate.
According to our simulation, Liverpool will end 2014 unbeaten, wrapping up their season with a 2-0 win against Newcastle. Luis Suarez will take his goal tally for the season to 33 and Brendan Rodgers is named Manager of the Year.
As for the rest? Mourinho's focus on the Champion's League, as well as injuries to Cech and Terry, see Chelsea pipped to second position by a rejuvenated Manchester City. “City themselves should have finished with a better points total,” note the Sports Interactive wizards, “but a misjudged backpass from Demichelis against Aston Villa allowed Agbonlahor to steal all three points.”
Everton falter at the last, drawing at Southampton and then beaten by Manchester City – which allows Arsenal to secure Champions League football yet again. The most priceless nugget in our simulated match? “Ashley Young was brought on as a sub against Southampton," says Davidson. "He was booked for diving."
Joining the Toffees in the Europa League are Tottenham, who pip Manchester United to 6th place. Despite Giggsy in the dugout, the Red Devils end a disappointing campaign with defeats to Hull and Southampton.
So that's the big boys. At the other end of the table, Sunderland stage a comeback for the ages by securing four points from their final four games and surviving on goal difference. “Adam Johnson’s brace in a 2-1 victory over West Brom proves to be the deciding factor in the relegation battle," says Davidson.
A final-day loss for the Black Cats against Swansea isn't quite enough for Norwich who, despite drawing 1-1 with Chelsea, take a 3-0 pounding from Arsenal. Meanwhile Cardiff and Fulham can't get out of the drawing habit, and both have a winless final three games and finish rooted to the bottom of the table.
Champions: Liverpool
Relegated: Norwich, Cardiff, Fulham
