Wait for it.... We've just been told we can work from home again.
For anyone counting, we've been told that four times now, & it's been rescinded three times.
In 48 fucking hours.
Chinese "Devil Virus" - anyone worried?
- Thread starter manwithnoname
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For anyone counting, we've been told that four times now, & it's been rescinded three times.
In 48 fucking hours.
The Lombardy outbreak came to light when a 38-year-old Italian tested positive in Codogno, a comune in the province of Lodi. On 14 February, he felt unwell and went to a doctor in Castiglione d'Adda. He was prescribed treatments for influenza.[25] On 16 February, as the man's condition worsened, he went to Codogno Hospital, reporting respiratory problems.[25] Initially there was no suspicion of COVID-19, so no additional precautionary measures were taken, and the virus was able to infect other patients and health workers.[26] On 19 February, the wife of the patient revealed he had met an Italian friend who had returned from China on 21 January, who subsequently tested negative.[25] Later, the patient, his pregnant wife and a friend tested positive.[25] On 20 February, three more cases were confirmed after the patients reported symptoms of pneumonia.[27] Thereafter, extensive screenings and checks were performed on everyone that had possibly been in contact with or near the infected subjects.[28] It has been subsequently reported that the origin of these cases has a possible connection to the first European local transmission that occurred in Munich, Germany, on 19 January 2020, consistent with phylogenetic analysis of viral genome.[29][30][31] The 38-year-old man was asymptomatic for weeks, reportedly led an active social life and potentially interacted with dozens of people before spreading the virus at Codogno Hospital.[25][26] Afterward, he was transferred to Policlinico San Matteo in Pavia,[32] and his wife to Sacco Hospital in Milan.[33][34]
Protezione Civile volunteers carrying out health checks at Guglielmo Marconi Airport
On 21 February, 16 more cases were confirmed – 14 in Lombardy, including the doctor who prescribed treatments to the 38-year-old Codogno man,[25] and two in Veneto. On 22 February, a 77-year-old woman from Casalpusterlengo, who suffered from pneumonia and visited the same emergency room as the 38-year-old from Codogno, died in Lombardy.[35] Including the 78-year-old man who died in Veneto, the number of cases in Italy rose to 79.[5][36] Of the 76 newly discovered cases, 54 were found in Lombardy, including one patient in San Raffaele Hospital in Milan[37] and eight patients in Policlinico San Matteo in Pavia,[38] 17 in Veneto, two in Emilia-Romagna, two in Lazio and one in Piedmont.[39]
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I didn't think anyone knows. Obviously there are and were many, many interactions between China and the rest of the globe but Italy is neither physically close or has any more contact than many other states. Also if Germany had first European transmission are they genetically better equipped to deal with it than Italians? Proper mystery...
How much skill, smarts, and hard work goes into hoarding bog roll?
Yeah it is weird the way Germany has zillions of positive tests and hardly any deaths. They do have twice as many ICU beds than Italy, who in turn have twice as many as us, but that can't be it. Germany is testing non critical cases so that throws the numbers but doesn't explain why it's not spreading nearly as quickly. Italy have an older population. Maybe they all just hug each other loads more than Germans. Actually fucking hell yeah. They do.
About as much as it did to short airlines two weeks ago. Unfortunately I don't have a hedge fund.
My comments from a discussion with friends today. I've tried to arrange them into a largely coherent read (sorry for any repetition of other posts I've made on here)!
Statistics not following the fear-mongering modelling.
—
The warnings from some scientists and politicians (Merkel & trashy media) have just exacerbated the problem. However statistically the numbers simply don't follow the modelled projections. And it's not just quarantining or social distancing (though they clearly help slow the spread) that has caused this. These trend lines and leveling off are easily found on the internet (NB* I've actually posted them above on 6CM).
Fear mongering quotes of up to 60-80% of the population will become infected simply don't follow the statistics and recent historical data. The number for China, with a 1.6 billion population, was merely 0.0005% of the population infected (ca. 80,000+ people, the vast majority of them, around 75%, in Wuhan/Hubei) and South Korea's infected stat is not much higher and is now in the process of leveling off.
I wrote out a Timeline (*NB also on 6CM above) which shows the progression of the virus and when the various preventive measures were introduced in Wuhan/Hubei. Simply put there was over a month since the outbreak commenced to the airport closure.
A month in which 75,000 - 150,000 people a day (during the Chinese New Year rush) passed in/out the airport (and we're not even mentioning the massive numbers by train or road) and moved around China and the World (Wuhan's airport is the 30th largest by capacity in the world). Nearly 5 million people in total via the airport alone. The quarantine didn't prevent a China-wide (or world-wide) spread only reduced it at its most virulent.
Quarantine
It seems logical, obvious even, that it will have had an effect however it doesn't follow that it had a major effect in reducing the spread from China as then that comes back to how far and wide transmission had already gone undetected by the medical community. Which takes us back to those mobility figures in the early stages mentioned above.
China's outbreak lasted 2.5 months (3 if you want to take it back to Patient Zero) before the rest of the country returned to relatively normal social and business functions (exc. Wuhan - where restrictions will also shortly be lifted too - all of the emergency hospitals have now been closed and today, for the first time, there wasn't a single new infection registered), South Korea has followed the same trend. We'll see if other countries follow this trend.
Japan and Italy as Outliers.
There are two real outliers so far, Italy at one end of the spectrum and Japan at the other, without having obvious factors that has so far virtually insulated Japan and on the other hand made Italy extremely susceptible.
..
Japan is a strange one - they have huge tourist numbers from China and their preventive measures are minimal. They also didn't ban Chinese from visiting until well into the outbreak and then initially only if they originated from Wuhan/Hubei.
..
Italy though is a strange and tragic case (possibly due to an aged population compared to younger populations in Asia perhaps) seems to be an Outlier.
All we can do is speculate at this stage but Italy has the highest average age in Europe (and many heavy smokers) and it's likely many retired to the beautiful North of the country rather than the major cities or dusty South. Let's hope for Italy's sake they follow the logarithmic curve exhibited by China and South Korea.
..
It seems to me that something else, that has so far remained undetected, is in play otherwise the severe drop-offs in the logarithmic curve aren't logical at all. Logically growth should be exponential (given the R value of 2.3 to 2.8) but it seems that holds true only in the early stages. As with other outbreaks (SARS, MERS) the COVID-19 outbreaks seem to naturally dissipate and the reason behind it may remain a mystery.
Scientists have stated that warm weather may not be a hope we should hang on to as there is no proof it will reduce transmission. However the facts (countries most affected) say otherwise. One of my friends pointed me to this (temps based on 2019) form the University of Maine (used for weather prediction). If you isolate the countries most affected you will find they are all in the Green Zone.
Statistics not following the fear-mongering modelling.
—
The warnings from some scientists and politicians (Merkel & trashy media) have just exacerbated the problem. However statistically the numbers simply don't follow the modelled projections. And it's not just quarantining or social distancing (though they clearly help slow the spread) that has caused this. These trend lines and leveling off are easily found on the internet (NB* I've actually posted them above on 6CM).
Fear mongering quotes of up to 60-80% of the population will become infected simply don't follow the statistics and recent historical data. The number for China, with a 1.6 billion population, was merely 0.0005% of the population infected (ca. 80,000+ people, the vast majority of them, around 75%, in Wuhan/Hubei) and South Korea's infected stat is not much higher and is now in the process of leveling off.
I wrote out a Timeline (*NB also on 6CM above) which shows the progression of the virus and when the various preventive measures were introduced in Wuhan/Hubei. Simply put there was over a month since the outbreak commenced to the airport closure.
A month in which 75,000 - 150,000 people a day (during the Chinese New Year rush) passed in/out the airport (and we're not even mentioning the massive numbers by train or road) and moved around China and the World (Wuhan's airport is the 30th largest by capacity in the world). Nearly 5 million people in total via the airport alone. The quarantine didn't prevent a China-wide (or world-wide) spread only reduced it at its most virulent.
Quarantine
It seems logical, obvious even, that it will have had an effect however it doesn't follow that it had a major effect in reducing the spread from China as then that comes back to how far and wide transmission had already gone undetected by the medical community. Which takes us back to those mobility figures in the early stages mentioned above.
China's outbreak lasted 2.5 months (3 if you want to take it back to Patient Zero) before the rest of the country returned to relatively normal social and business functions (exc. Wuhan - where restrictions will also shortly be lifted too - all of the emergency hospitals have now been closed and today, for the first time, there wasn't a single new infection registered), South Korea has followed the same trend. We'll see if other countries follow this trend.
Japan and Italy as Outliers.
There are two real outliers so far, Italy at one end of the spectrum and Japan at the other, without having obvious factors that has so far virtually insulated Japan and on the other hand made Italy extremely susceptible.
..
Japan is a strange one - they have huge tourist numbers from China and their preventive measures are minimal. They also didn't ban Chinese from visiting until well into the outbreak and then initially only if they originated from Wuhan/Hubei.
..
Italy though is a strange and tragic case (possibly due to an aged population compared to younger populations in Asia perhaps) seems to be an Outlier.
All we can do is speculate at this stage but Italy has the highest average age in Europe (and many heavy smokers) and it's likely many retired to the beautiful North of the country rather than the major cities or dusty South. Let's hope for Italy's sake they follow the logarithmic curve exhibited by China and South Korea.
..
It seems to me that something else, that has so far remained undetected, is in play otherwise the severe drop-offs in the logarithmic curve aren't logical at all. Logically growth should be exponential (given the R value of 2.3 to 2.8) but it seems that holds true only in the early stages. As with other outbreaks (SARS, MERS) the COVID-19 outbreaks seem to naturally dissipate and the reason behind it may remain a mystery.
Scientists have stated that warm weather may not be a hope we should hang on to as there is no proof it will reduce transmission. However the facts (countries most affected) say otherwise. One of my friends pointed me to this (temps based on 2019) form the University of Maine (used for weather prediction). If you isolate the countries most affected you will find they are all in the Green Zone.
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Just stop eating fucking bats.
Jesus.. that guy is more deadly than Harold Shipman.The Lombardy outbreak came to light when a 38-year-old Italian tested positive in Codogno, a comune in the province of Lodi. On 14 February, he felt unwell and went to a doctor in Castiglione d'Adda. He was prescribed treatments for influenza.[25] On 16 February, as the man's condition worsened, he went to Codogno Hospital, reporting respiratory problems.[25] Initially there was no suspicion of COVID-19, so no additional precautionary measures were taken, and the virus was able to infect other patients and health workers.[26] On 19 February, the wife of the patient revealed he had met an Italian friend who had returned from China on 21 January, who subsequently tested negative.[25] Later, the patient, his pregnant wife and a friend tested positive.[25] On 20 February, three more cases were confirmed after the patients reported symptoms of pneumonia.[27] Thereafter, extensive screenings and checks were performed on everyone that had possibly been in contact with or near the infected subjects.[28] It has been subsequently reported that the origin of these cases has a possible connection to the first European local transmission that occurred in Munich, Germany, on 19 January 2020, consistent with phylogenetic analysis of viral genome.[29][30][31] The 38-year-old man was asymptomatic for weeks, reportedly led an active social life and potentially interacted with dozens of people before spreading the virus at Codogno Hospital.[25][26] Afterward, he was transferred to Policlinico San Matteo in Pavia,[32] and his wife to Sacco Hospital in Milan.[33][34]
Protezione Civile volunteers carrying out health checks at Guglielmo Marconi Airport
On 21 February, 16 more cases were confirmed – 14 in Lombardy, including the doctor who prescribed treatments to the 38-year-old Codogno man,[25] and two in Veneto. On 22 February, a 77-year-old woman from Casalpusterlengo, who suffered from pneumonia and visited the same emergency room as the 38-year-old from Codogno, died in Lombardy.[35] Including the 78-year-old man who died in Veneto, the number of cases in Italy rose to 79.[5][36] Of the 76 newly discovered cases, 54 were found in Lombardy, including one patient in San Raffaele Hospital in Milan[37] and eight patients in Policlinico San Matteo in Pavia,[38] 17 in Veneto, two in Emilia-Romagna, two in Lazio and one in Piedmont.[39]
How about pigs too ? Don't you like your pork ribs or chops?
..
H1N1 started in the USA where it killed 18,500, spread to 215 countries and likely killed 250,000 to 500,000 worldwide. It is estimated that 11–21% of the global population were infected at the time : around 700 million–1.4 billion people
Good read if you think it's only bats !
Guardian.
https://www.theguardian.com/environ...CrcC03Jj61zmNGF1Iy3ckgvexBe9gM87gLT36TRHa81bY
Guardian.
https://www.theguardian.com/environ...CrcC03Jj61zmNGF1Iy3ckgvexBe9gM87gLT36TRHa81bY
I think we can safely assume Froggy loves bat soup
I wouldn’t trust China’s figures as far as I could throw them
No...its because the Germans are the master race.
This is the solution.
See also Spain. Social distancing is antithetical to their way of life.
My only hope for the us actually, is that locally lots of places that are underserved are also isolated. That cuts both ways of course, but in general the us is quite spread out.
When you consider the lack of testing in the USA it should be worrying that the growth of infections has already reached rates akin to Spain, France and Germany.
I think the USA could end up surpassing China in total infections and mortality (they have a much older population) due to Trump's ineptitude.
I agree that there's a lot of fear mongering, no doubt, but also it's a bit like manager interviews of football teams - if at a press conference they ask you a question that's going to get a sexy answer, that's the one they go with on the back page and drop the boring stuff. If they ask Merkel for example what's the absolute worst case she could imagine, and she gives an answer, then they'll just run with it.
Re the China numbers, I know infection was very very low compared to China's population, but isn't this an outlier because of effective containment? If they Wuhan province had had no control like say Italy, then it would have run through mainland China like it has Italy? And then the high infection figures would have been fair?
From what I can see, China has about 8000 people currently infected, I presume mainly around Wuhan, if they let them go out and mingle, China would be knackered?
If China's figures are reasonably accurate, then they've done an amazing job with this virus and every other country infected could learn a lot, and need to emulate asap if they can and that ship hasn't sailed.
Oh, I agree, but it's very localized.
The US doesn't have ANY unified response to this. It's all down to your state and local government. Mine is doing ok.
That article above mentions someone being asymptomatic for weeks.
That scares me. Until we get large scale testing, even a few of those cases, could render all this self isolation utterly fucking pointless.
That scares me. Until we get large scale testing, even a few of those cases, could render all this self isolation utterly fucking pointless.
The real tragedy in all of this is that in preparing for lockdown, I've bought the new footy manager... not knowing it's free for the next few weeks
Just seen that every UK car production company has shutdown to protect its employees. Except for one...
Ive been told we are classed as key workers and will be on the list from tomorrow.
All civil servants? Or certain categories? With Bex position that could mean ours are.
Fuck me, the kids will be GUTTED. I'll be over the fucking moon, however.
I’m starting to think there is something to that. Here in the US, New Orleans ( which is culturally closer to Southern Europe than to the yanks), has TWICE cases per capita than the next nearest region. Culture clearly plays a part.
I've actually mentioned this a fair bit in this thread - you are clearly not reading my posts
Around 5m people moved in and out of Wuhan BEFORE the Lockdown but after the virus infections started. And that's only from the airport there were a lot more than that on trains and roads. It wasn't effective containment that somehow prevented an outbreak. That is clear from the figures for Shanghai (330+) and Beijing (450+), those are miniscule figures for cities with 25m and 22m. And yes there was social distancing and a degree of quarantining but nothing like Wuhan. Whilst in Shanghai I could go out (and did) at any time and to anywhere in the city. As did many others.
There are 7,232 active cases remaining, they are all in hospitals and not going to be running around infecting anyone. The clear and obvious threat is from Chinese / Expats returning to China who carry the virus in them. I think in the whole of China yesterday there was like 25 new cases of which 18 were returning Chinese caught at airports.