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Goals, Goals, Glorious Goals !

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Frogfish

Frogfish

Gone to Redcafe
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As in, where are they going to come from next season. This may be a little pre-emptive but I've got to get in early before Red Ninja thinks of a thread like this.

Looking at our likely squad for 2014/15 (I expect another MF or Forward so I've added A.N.Other) I can comfortably see us scoring at least 111 goals against 117 goals with Suarez in 2013/14.**

We achieve this by spreading the scoring responsibility across the team rather than having it concentrated in 3 players (Suarez, Sturridge and Gerrard = 71 goals) and maintain our Goal Difference by improved defensive solidity.

**This is based on the same number of games as 2013/14 - I expect possibly another 10 games this coming season and so would need to adjust the goals scored per player accordingly.

Sturridge 21 (2013/14 : 25)
Sterling 15 (13)
Remy 13 (14 for Newcastle in 27 games)
Gerrard 10 (15)
Lallana 8 (10 for Southampton in 39 games)
Lambert 7 (14 for Southampton in 38 games)
Coutinho 8 (5)
Henderson 7 (6)
A.N.Other 5 (TBC)
Markovic 3 (1 for Benfica in 13 games)
Skrtel 3 (7)
Sakho 3 (1)
Can 2 (4 for Leverkusen in 39 games)
Lovren 2 (2 for Southampton in 31 games)
Allen 1 (2)
Johnson 1 (0)
Enrique 1 (0)

Other Scorers in 2013/14
Suarez 31
Aspas 5
Agger 2
Moses 2
Kelly 1
Cissokho 1
Alberto 1

An historical look back at the PL shows that no team has come even close to repeating 100+ (only 3 teams ever having topped 100 ; Chelsea 103, City 102 and Liverpool 101) with following seasons around 80. There are also only 3 seasons where more than 86 goals were needed to win the PL* (City in 2012 with 93, Chelsea in 2010 with 103 and City in 2014 with 103) though as can be seen 3 of those were in the past 5 seasons.

Looking at all the strengthening going on in the PL due to the influx of PL sponsorship and TV money it may be considerably more difficult (using City for example) to knock 3, 4, 5 or more goals past teams week in week out or to run up a 6-0 or 7-0. Not that it won't happen, but all of the above possibly being less frequent than in 2013/14.

To maintain our position in the Top 4 then we may need no more than 80-85 goals and to concede no more than 38-40. Winning games by 3-1, 2-0, 2-1, 1-0 being more the norm than 6-3, 5-2, 4-3 etc. 3 points is still 3 points no matter the goal difference.
Or to put it another way (see below) the lowest number of goals scored to still obtain a Top 4 finish in the PL is between 55 and 72 goals. Even just using the past 5 seasons as a guide, I would be very surprised if we don't score at least 72 goals in the PL.

*
01 - United 79 (lowest in Top 4 = 63)
02 - Arsenal 79 (67)
03 - United 74 (63)
04 - Arsenal 73 (55)
05 - Chelsea 72 (45)
06 - Chelsea 72 (57)
07 - United 83 (63)
08 - United 80 (65)
09 - United 68 (68)
10 - Chelsea 103 (67)
11 - United 78 (72)
12 - City 93 (66)
13 - United 86 (72)
14 - City 103 (68)
 
I don't feel we have to score the same amount. A similar or better goal difference is the preference. Conceding less will go along way towards repeating that. Suarez's 30+ goals can be replaced by someone coming in/stepping up scoring 10 and us conceding 20 less. May not happen that way but regardless of not scoring the same we certainly can't allow ourselves to concede the same amount.
 
80 goals would be a very good tally as long as we can shave 12 to 15 goals off the no. we conceded last season. 75 is conservative but realistic. I expect at least half of the goals Suarez contributed to be hard to get back, while I also think Gerrard's goal tally will fall because we may not get as many penalties as we did last season.

Conservative and reasonable targets for the various players and sections could look like this:

Centre forwards = 35 (Sturridge = 20; Borini / Remy + Lambert = 15)
Wide forwards / Attacking mids = 22 (Sterling = 10; Coutinho + Lallana + Markovic + Suso/Ibe/Teixeira = 12)
Centre mids = 12 (Allen + Henderson + Can + Lucas + Gerrard)
Defenders = 6
TOTAL = 75

Top that up with a few own goals and we could hit 80.
 
A well researched and thought out opening post.

However, I think that 111 is an oddly precise and very unlikely target this year. I honestly can't see us topping 100 goals again in 2014/15. In my opinion we'll tighten up a bit at the back and won't play such a full on style, not to mention losing Suarez's influence in the final third (notice I said influence and not necessarily his goals). I think there's too many new players to bed in to expect our attack click in the same way as it did last year. Rodgers will utilise the squad far more with the amount of games we have to play also, so we might find the same level of consistency as we did during the second half of the season - where we plundered the majority of our goals.

What I do expect to see is an improvement in our goals conceded, which could mean that our goal difference stays about the same.

I do think that there are enough goals and creativity in the squad as it stands.
 
I think it's a bit sad that an attempt to spark a debate that contains this much effort has had 62 views and only 3 replies in 4 hours. I know this topic has been touched on in other threads but still.
 
I reckon they are all watching the giants.

If they were in work you would have more of them on here.
 
refugee said:
Says the poster that has posted 62 times in 2 years....
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I'm guessing the point you were trying to make came after the elipses, yes?

I have been registered for 2 years under this username, in fact I was registered previously under another username and posted infrequently under that one too.

But regardless of how long I've been registered or how many times I've posted, I'm still entitled to think and voice the fact that I think it's a shame that this thread has only garnered a response rate of around 4% vs the number of views. If you disagree that's fine; maybe that was the second half of your post.

And now there are only 3 replies in here that actually reference the topic in the original post.
 
fucking puns

In my head I keep thinking Raheem is going to fill the boots of Suarez but it may be way too much expectation to heap on the young man. 15 and more of the same from last season would be a great return from him. I'd love to see Henderson break double figures, it's time for him to chip in an come close to that.

The numbers seem reasonable but I can't see us dishing out as many batterings as last year.
 
Markeh said:
fucking puns

In my head I keep thinking Raheem is going to fill the boots of Suarez but it may be way too much expectation to heap on the young man. 15 and more of the same from last season would be a great return from him. I'd love to see Henderson break double figures, it's time for him to chip in an come close to that.

The numbers seem reasonable but I can't see us dishing out as many batterings as last year.
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I think you are right with regards to the lofty expectations. I will say though that, from what I've seen so far, Sterling seems very grounded and well able to handle the pressure. I don't think we'll have to worry about him folding mentally if asked to step up the the next level.

It's going to be interesting to see how Sturridge handles being the main man in a team at the top end of the table, he's shown the right attitude and ability so far so I have high hopes.
 
Windom Earle said:
I think it's a bit sad that an attempt to spark a debate that contains this much effort has had 62 views and only 3 replies in 4 hours. I know this topic has been touched on in other threads but still.
Click to expand...


The flip side is that someone mentions it and in turn sends the whole thread off topic....that'll hardly happen here though.
 
I would be content if Sterling is as good this year as he was for the second half of last season.
 
Markeh said:
The numbers seem reasonable but I can't see us dishing out as many batterings as last year.
Click to expand...

I agree. I think that's pretty much what I said. I expect us to win as many but without conceding so many, so therefore more 2-0, 1-0, 2-1 scorelines.
 
studsup said:
80 goals would be a very good tally as long as we can shave 12 to 15 goals off the no. we conceded last season. 75 is conservative but realistic. I expect at least half of the goals Suarez contributed to be hard to get back, while I also think Gerrard's goal tally will fall because we may not get as many penalties as we did last season.

Conservative and reasonable targets for the various players and sections could look like this:

Centre forwards = 35 (Sturridge = 20; Borini / Remy + Lambert = 15)
Wide forwards / Attacking mids = 22 (Sterling = 10; Coutinho + Lallana + Markovic + Suso/Ibe/Teixeira = 12)
Centre mids = 12 (Allen + Henderson + Can + Lucas + Gerrard)
Defenders = 6
TOTAL = 75

Top that up with a few own goals and we could hit 80.
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75 would/should/could see us home in at least 4th place. As you can see I downgraded Gerrard from 15 to 10 which should be doable, especially with just as tricky and technical a front 5 than we had last season.

I would be surprised if both Coutinho and Sterling, as per your numbers, hit less than last season, I'm looking for a modest increase from both.
 
You would also have to consider the number of assists Suarez had last season.

With goals and assists he was directly involved in 44 of the 101 goals last season and that doesn't include times where he was indirectly involved by making space or runs to allow someone else to score or assist.

That is a big hole to fill.
Rogers will obviously reorganise the team to get best out of the current players and he has done an amazing job at that the last couple of seasons.
But I think the performance of whatever big marquee signing you spend the Suarez money on will determine all our fates this season
If you get that right and he performs we are going to find it hard to get above ye. Got it wrong and we have a chance
 
I don't see goals being an issue, we still have quality up there with pace and creativity to score plenty and Rodgers will be setting us up to do just that, can't see us getting near last seasons total but that shouldn't really matter, what will matter is what happens at the other end, that's where our biggest issues are.

The stupid individual errors have been killing us ever since Rodgers has been here, if we can cut them in half then that'll be a start and a big help, i like Lovren and the idea of a proper leader/organiser back there, it is needed but so are a pair of quality full backs and and a confident solid goalkeeper, we need to see more conviction and confidence from all of them, maybe Lovren can help bring that out of them? i dunno, the thought of watching another season of Johnson playing like someone who has just woken up 5 minutes before kick off isn't a positive one and as admirable a job Flanno did for us last season we don't want to be relying on him too much.
 
Spaghetti Legs said:
I don't see goals being an issue, we still have quality up there with pace and creativity to score plenty and Rodgers will be setting us up to do just that, can't see us getting near last seasons total but that shouldn't really matter, what will matter is what happens at the other end, that's where our biggest issues are.

The stupid individual errors have been killing us ever since Rodgers has been here, if we can cut them in half thenthat'll be a start and a big help, i like Lovren and the idea of a proper leader/organiser back there, it is needed but so are a pair of quality full backs and and a confident solid goalkeeper, we need to see more conviction and confidence from all of them, maybe Lovren can help bring that out of them? i dunno, the thought of watching another season of Johnson playing like someone who has just woken up 5 minutes before kick off isn't a positive one and as admirable a job Flanno did for us last season we don't want to be relying on him too much.
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Goals will be an issue if we don't sign another striker.

With the CL, there'll be 50+ games this season. There's no way on earth that Sturridge and Lambert are going to fit through all those games, or get more than 35 goals combined.

We have added significantly to our strength in depth in the AM/winger department, but we desperately need another quality striker coming in.
 
Yeah, Remy had eased a lot of my worries. I had penciled him in for 15+ goals which is huge.
 
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