• You may have to login or register before you can post and view our exclusive members only forums.
    To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

Lucky Liverpool

Forums New posts
Status
Not open for further replies.
Robonoodle

Robonoodle

Active
Member
See, we wuz robbed! It's been proven by science, and I've always liked science. So, if Citeh can keep their 25-point gap, can we get back the 12 points nicked by ineptitude?

Lucky Liverpool

Liverpool were the 'unluckiest' team in the Premier League last season while Manchester United were the 'luckiest', new research claims.
The Reds dropped 12 points in matches affected by wrongly disallowed goals or incorrect decisions on penalties and red cards, says a study conducted by ESPN, Intel and the University of Bath.
It says United gained six points over incidents that went in their favour.
Manchester City remain top in a new simulated table accounting for 'luck'.
However, the study found Huddersfield should have been relegated instead of Stoke when 'incorrect' refereeing decisions were taken into account.
It also found Brighton would have finished six places higher - moving up to ninth and earning an extra £11.5m in prize money on their return to the top flight.
Conversely, Leicester would have finished 14th instead of ninth, ending the season with £9.7m less in prize money.
Fourth-placed Liverpool would have swapped with second-placed United, and champions City fallen three points short of their 100 mark.
How did the 'Luck Index' work?

A research team collaborated with ex-Premier League referee Peter Walton, analysing footage from every game of the 2017-18 Premier League season and watching for:
  • Goals that should have been disallowed
  • Incorrectly disallowed goals
  • Incorrectly awarded penalties (that were scored)
  • Penalties that were not awarded but should have been
  • Incorrect red-card decisions
  • Red-card incidents that were missed
  • Goals scored after injury time overran
  • Deflected goals
Once incidents had been indentified, an alternative outcome of the affected matches was predicted, using a model that also considered factors including team strength, form, and home advantage.
For example: in Liverpool's 0-0 draw with Manchester United at Anfield on 14 October, the study concluded Jurgen Klopp's side should have been awarded a penalty in the 63rd minute, and the new simulated scoreline was a 1-0 victory for the home side.
Once the process was completed, the Premier League table was redrawn to reflect the new simulated results.
[xtable]
{thead}
{tr}
{th}Premier League table 17-18{/th}
{th} {/th}
{th}'Luck Index' simulated table 17-18{/th}
{th} {/th}
{/tr}
{/thead}
{tbody}
{tr}
{td}Manchester City{/td}
{td}100{/td}
{td}Manchester City{/td}
{td}97{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Manchester United{/td}
{td}81{/td}
{td}Liverpool{/td}
{td}87{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Tottenham{/td}
{td}77{/td}
{td}Tottenham{/td}
{td}77{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Liverpool{/td}
{td}75{/td}
{td}Manchester United{/td}
{td}75{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Chelsea{/td}
{td}70{/td}
{td}Arsenal{/td}
{td}71{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Arsenal{/td}
{td}63{/td}
{td}Chelsea{/td}
{td}70{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Burnley{/td}
{td}54{/td}
{td}Burnley{/td}
{td}50{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Everton{/td}
{td}49{/td}
{td}Newcastle{/td}
{td}48{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Leicester{/td}
{td}47{/td}
{td}Brighton{/td}
{td}46{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Newcastle{/td}
{td}44{/td}
{td}Everton{/td}
{td}44{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Crystal Palace{/td}
{td}44{/td}
{td}Crystal Palace{/td}
{td}42{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Bournemouth{/td}
{td}44{/td}
{td}West Ham{/td}
{td}41{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}West Ham{/td}
{td}42{/td}
{td}Watford{/td}
{td}41{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Watford{/td}
{td}41{/td}
{td}Leicester{/td}
{td}40{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Brighton{/td}
{td}40{/td}
{td}Southampton{/td}
{td}40{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Huddersfield{/td}
{td}37{/td}
{td}Bournemouth{/td}
{td}38{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Southampton{/td}
{td}36{/td}
{td}Stoke{/td}
{td}37{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Swansea{/td}
{td}33{/td}
{td}Huddersfield{/td}
{td}37{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}Stoke{/td}
{td}33{/td}
{td}Swansea{/td}
{td}34{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}West Brom{/td}
{td}31{/td}
{td}West Brom{/td}
{td}33{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]
The research team analysed over 150 incidents and also found:
  • Leicester scored three goals after injury time overran - more than any other side.
  • Huddersfield's John Smith's Stadium saw the most deflected goals - five. Two of those worked in the Terriers' favour.
  • Matt Ritchie was the 'luckiest player'. The Newcastle winger avoided two red cards, while a handball in the box against Leicester went unnoticed.
Assistant Professor Thomas Curran from the University of Bath said each game was simulated "thousands of times to model how it should have turned out".
He said the project was "one of the most detailed pieces of research we have ever conducted".
Former referee Walton added: "The results demonstrate the impact and importance of refereeing decisions on a game.
"With the Premier League deciding not to introduce VAR for the coming season, it is interesting to see how much luck plays a part in the way the league unfolds."
 
We did have some shocking penalty decisions go against us at Anfield last season...turned down I mean.
 
tombrown said:
Not relevant at all for last season, but at least it shows we start this season only 10 points behind city & not the unsurmountable 25 barrier we previously had to overcome
Click to expand...


Hahaha...

I didn't know points rolled over like that!! Fuuuuck!! Them pesky blue manc fuckers!!

Sleeves rolled up... let's give it a go...
 
You need "luck" to win anything.

I kind of knew we'd had been unlucky last year by the amount of penalties given against us (and not given for us), especially at home! I think we only got 3 in the league, and conceded 5/6. With our players, and being an offensive team, that's very strange.

Remember, the last time we challenged for the league. We got loads of pens (3 at Old Trafford FFS!!).

Also, I remember the Xabi Alonso red card season when he won about 5-10 himself, and we challenged for the league.

You need these decisions to mount title challenges. I'm VERY hopeful this year that luck will turn around and we'll get an unhealthy amout of good fortune go for us. And then when our rivals inevitably complain, we can use the age-old cliche "well, it all balances itself out over the course of the season".
 
Last edited:
ibromurph said:
You need "luck" to win anything.

I kind of knew we'd had been unlucky last year by the amount of penalties given against us (and not given for us), especially at home! I think we only got 3 in the league, and conceded 5/6. With our players, and being an offensive team, that's very strange.

Remember, the last time we challenged for the league. We got loads of pens (3 at Old Trafford FFS!!).

Also, I remember the Xabi Alonso pen season when he won about 5-10 himself, and we challenged for the league.

You need these decisions to mount title challenges. I'm VERY hopeful this year that luck will turn around and we'll get an unhealthy amout of good fortune go for us. And then when our rivals inevitably complain, we can use the age-old cliche "well, it all balances itself out over the course of the season".
Click to expand...
Xabi pen season? Wasn't it red cards?
 
Modo said:
You mean the biggest team in England? Nah I'm good. I'll just console myself with 2 of those extra league titles.
Click to expand...


Wow... didn't know you were a Manure fan... I always assumed you were a Spurs fan... either way...
 
tombrown said:
My ex employer seemingly funded it … that place has gone down hill since I left them
Click to expand...

Indeed, had I funded it, the least I would demand is that the results spat out different champions so that I could generate attention and revenues.
 
tombrown said:
Not relevant at all for last season, but at least it shows we start this season only 10 points behind city & not the unsurmountable 25 barrier we previously had to overcome
Click to expand...

Exactly, and when VAR comes in it’ll be like a new signing, or 12rh man or something. Probably deserve it’s own thread.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

bluebell
  • Locked
No penalties this season
Replies
10
Views
685
rurikbird
rurikbird
bluebell
    • Like
  • Locked
All Time Football Table League 1888-2021
Replies
1
Views
503
Eric Miller
E
Modo
  • Locked
Golden glove race
Replies
24
Views
2K
Dreambeliever
Dreambeliever
bluebell
    • Like
  • Locked
World Football Ranking
Replies
2
Views
780
Frogfish
Frogfish
bluebell
    • Like
  • Locked
Goals from outside the box
Replies
0
Views
532
bluebell
bluebell
Back
Top Bottom