Liverpool have already given their faithful, travelling support some moments to remember this season. Trent Alexander-Arnold’s free kick, lashed high into the net, at Stamford Bridge. Gini Wijnaldum, with a shot to nothing, managing to squirm the ball under Sheffield United goalkeeper Dean Henderson. Sadio Mané, with the game at Southampton’s St Mary’s still poised, rifling in from 25 yards.
All goals which derive from individuals, either in the form of brilliance or error. But the cumulative value of those three strikes, according to Understat, came to just 0.12 on one expected goals (xG) model, meaning the probability of those three strikes resulting in three goals was 4%.
There is a narrative Liverpool are lucky, and that is not the case. Wijnaldum’s winner in Sheffield was fortunate, but Alexander-Arnold and Mané provided moments of real quality. That two shots with the values of 0.05 and 0.02 respectively (or, in other words, a 5% and 2% chance of hitting the back of the net) were successful comes from the outstanding ability of the players primarily, but also the recognition sometimes (or, rather, often) it does not result in a goal.
Yet those three goals do fit a general theme of Liverpool on the road this season, and it is in stark contrast to their performances at Anfield. Using the xG metric, Liverpool should have notched 6.75 goals over the course of the five games, rather than the nine goals they have scored; in terms of conceding, there is also an overperformance, with three goals conceded, but the total on xGC (expected goals conceded) sitting higher at 5.95, nearly double. With those taken into consideration, the expected points (xP) total, which is used as a gauge to convey dominance of a team on a game-by-game basis, puts Liverpool on 7.45 points, far fewer than the 13 out of a possible 15 acquired so far. Indeed, in terms of individual games, this particular model suggests Liverpool were bettered in terms of xG in two of their five away games, at Southampton and Chelsea.
Game state would sometimes affect that; in both of those trips down south, Liverpool were 2-0 up and understandably invited pressure as they sought a killer third goal on the counter attack. But the flow of those respective 90 minutes suggest that did not happen against Southampton (who had a few big chances early), while Chelsea missed a huge opportunity in stoppage time to equalise.
What does this mean, then? Do Liverpool deserve to be sitting with an away record of 4-1-0, despite their xP putting them eighth in terms of away form, behind both Everton and Southampton? Five games is a small sample size, but there is no doubt Liverpool have enjoyed a mixture of fortune and simply being fantastic footballers. Good teams with good players often overperform, because they can do what others cannot, score from difficult situations, and possess defences (or goalkeepers) to repel big chances.
There is still clear opportunity to improve, though. While Chelsea and Manchester United account for two of the club’s seven toughest away trips (the rest of the top six, Leicester City and Everton), there have also been games against Sheffield United, Burnley and Southampton, all of which Liverpool are now expected to win in such a fierce title race. Eventually, they will have to either create more clear-cut opportunities on the road, or stop leaking so many chances in order to maintain their fantastic start.
