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Sports betting hedge fund.

Discussion in 'Betting Forum' started by dantes, Jan 2, 2017.

  1. dantes

    dantes Well-Known Member

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    Hahaha a hedge fund that bets on football. This might be a pretty good idea, it's probably illegal on-shore and he's certainly going to get dragged into laundering money and get whacked once he knows too much, but who cares if the returns are there.
     
  2. Pesam

    Pesam Forum Moderator Forum Moderator

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    Betting on football or stocks/shares is all much-of-a-muchness IMO Dantes, although in the last couple of years I've been more successful with shares than with the footie because I have less time for research than ever before (being a Dad now) and my methodology for making money on shares requires much less research comparatively speaking.

    That said, the hardest part about winning money betting on football is restraint; trying to limit the size and frequency of your bets and avoid impulse betting which is far easier said than done. I've never aimed for such low returns as this crowd Priomha achieve but maybe it might be worth trying it.............although it will be boring to follow.

    I think the first goalscorer betting will feature a lot in my bets as this market is often wrong due to the "herd mentality" betting; i.e. Lallana yesterday @ 9.5/1 to score the first goal yesterday just because he's scored a few recently..............I would have priced him about 12/1. Same with Ibrahimovic @ 3/1 first goal v West Ham.

    I started yesterday (but was too tired after Xmas/New Year to bother posting :). My starting bank is £2,000 and my first bets were...............

    £12 lay of Ibra to score 1st goal West Ham v Man Utd...........won £4
    £38 lay of Lallana to score 1st Sunderland v LFC.............won £4
    £20 lay of Sunderland beating LFC................................won £2

    I'll post future bets in advance of the games in future.

    Thanks Dantes I needed another challenge.
     
  3. dantes

    dantes Well-Known Member

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    I'd say shares have gone the same way as poker, everyone has all the information and has a fairly decent idea of what they're doing, so you have to be exceptionally good at predicting the future/cards to generate an above average return. However, betting on sports will always have a sizeable pool of idiots to supply professional gamblers with a decent return.
     
  4. Pesam

    Pesam Forum Moderator Forum Moderator

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    I watch CNBC business news every morning and they have their "experts" who are comparable to (and as often wrong as) the football "experts". IMO the only way to make a decent return on shares is to remain on the sidelines until a major incident i.e. credit crunch, recession, Brexit, shale oil etc and then buy up all the most battered shares (i.e. the ones that have suffered most). I did it with the house builders when the credit crunch hit, and the oil companies when the price of oil hit $30, and again with the banks when Brexit happened. I am sitting on the sidelines now (apart from a small holding in lloyds) and am waiting for either; China to hit the buffers, The EU to collapse completely (if Italy or France withdraws) or Trump to bankrupt the USA, I reckon one of these will "hit" within the next 3 or 4 years.
     
  5. dantes

    dantes Well-Known Member

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    That works, buy low sell high, but professional traders would struggle to justify their management fees and salaries if their strategy was to simply wait on the side lines. If you want to make sure that the company you are buying is actually cheap, then this guy is almost as good with numbers as I am...

     
  6. Pesam

    Pesam Forum Moderator Forum Moderator

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    He talks more sense than most, he particularly resonated with me when he talked about the complexity of the markets meaning even accurate valuations can go wrong, and also his lemming/investor metaphor which ties in with Warren Buffet's doctrine; buy when everyone else is selling. I completely agree with Buffet's tactics except he doesn't believe you should ever sell whereas I don't believe in being too greedy and sell-up when I've made a decent return. I made 300%-400% profit on Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey over a 4 year period from 2008 (if I had held onto the shares I could have made over 600% on both) and made a quick 40% profit on my banking shares between Brexit and Nov/December.

    As with football betting the biggest mistake is to invest money that you might need sometime in the near future. As yer man above says, sometimes it might take longer than you think to realise a profit on a share. My property shares were up and down between +/- 20% for about 2 years after I invested in them but finally shot up in value whereas the banks recovered very quickly from the Brexit shock.

    Not only are the markets (deliberately) complex but I'm convinced they are also hugely corrupt and it's all a ponzi scheme, this is the main reason I like to lock in a profit because although i invest in shares I have no doubt the "system" will collapse spectacularly one day and the only ones who'll get away untouched will be the (very) big players e.g. Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Barclays etc.
     
  7. dantes

    dantes Well-Known Member

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    I suppose it is a Ponzi scheme relying upon ever increasing pension and government contributions to buy the market. But if you keep your capital safely tucked away and deal on margin, then the worst case is that your broker comes after you for the loss, and you can tell them como miedra, como miedra, gringo hijo de putas, then do a runner with your capital.

    The most money in the market is piled into sectors which Goldman and JPM expect to grow 12-18 months into the future. So they predict the future using their research and statistics, then put their client's money in the right places. As the economic numbers change from month to month, the expectations change, so then they need to shift their money from say banking to retail. You have to predict the future too, and shift your money ahead of the big banks. If you have less than £50k, and they have not less than £50m, it's not as impossible as it seems.

    The problem with CNBC and Bloomberg is they they report the news which has happened already. So listening to them is pointless, Goldman already predicted the news six months earlier, and the market has already moved long before the "experts" appear on tv.
     
  8. Pesam

    Pesam Forum Moderator Forum Moderator

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    £46 lay of Junior Stanislas scoring 1st Bournemouth v Arse..........to win £2
     
  9. Pesam

    Pesam Forum Moderator Forum Moderator

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    £2 Blair 1st goal Doncaster v Pompey..........to win £50
     
  10. Pesam

    Pesam Forum Moderator Forum Moderator

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    £100 United to beat Hull tonight..............to win £17
     
  11. Pesam

    Pesam Forum Moderator Forum Moderator

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    £3 Burnley to beat Southampton............to win £11
     
  12. dantes

    dantes Well-Known Member

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    I really should just copy your bets.
     
  13. Pesam

    Pesam Forum Moderator Forum Moderator

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    Well lets hope I get this one wrong.............£4 United to beat LFC...to win £4
     
  14. Pesam

    Pesam Forum Moderator Forum Moderator

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    Season Long Bet 21/1/17 £132 Lay of LFC to win the league....to win £20
     
  15. Pesam

    Pesam Forum Moderator Forum Moderator

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    Strange bet for me............................£31 LAY of McAuley 1st goal WBA v Sunderland....to win £2. I've always been amazed that I've been able to back him regualrly at odds of 35/1+ despite his hugely impressive goalscoring record from CB. But now he's at just under 16/1 which is crazy for a CB.
     
  16. Pesam

    Pesam Forum Moderator Forum Moderator

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    £2 Leicester to win @ Saints...................to win £8.40
     
  17. Pesam

    Pesam Forum Moderator Forum Moderator

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    £37 Arse to beat Burnley.....to win £8.14
     
  18. Pesam

    Pesam Forum Moderator Forum Moderator

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    17 minutes to go............................arse 1 up but down to 10 men so have cashed out for a £1 profit.
     
  19. Pesam

    Pesam Forum Moderator Forum Moderator

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    £30 Chavs to beat Hull City................to win £5.70
     
  20. Pesam

    Pesam Forum Moderator Forum Moderator

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    £9 LFC to reach the final of the League Cup tonight......................to win £7.20
     

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