Barcelona - has their gamble paid off?

[keniget]

I think pretty much the entire footballing community looked on in a mixture of bemusement / amusement / horror as the true depth of the mess they were in began to unravel to the public.

Laporta came back and the sell off began, from a stake in future media rights to bits of memorabilia.

There was a lot of chat that they were sacrificing their future by selling the family silver and maybe should accept their fate and start again.

They continued making stupid moves in the transfer market but once again La Masia came to the rescue and a great crop of players has come through to build a team around in Yamal, Pedri, Gavi, Cubarsi and co.

They won a title under Xavi and this season have a potential treble on the cards (though I reckon CL looks a step too far)... has the gamble paid off?

 

[Farkmaster]

How can you evaluate in the short term whether a short term strategy with long term negatives was a good idea?

 

[Squiggles]

I haven't followed them closely over the years - I still hate them for the entitlement over Suarez/Mascherano/Coutinho bullshit, but watching them recently they look like a team that can regularly get to the CL semi-finals in the short-term, which has to help them financially. It's impossible not to admire their academy and youth scouting and Flick has been a strong appointment. The test will be whether they have the resources to compete when the academy isn't producing and there's no more levers to pull.

 

[dee]

Barca and PSG both look set for several years of dominance

 

[peekay]

Flick has been a brilliant appointment for them. He seems to work well with talented squads of big clubs and has them playing excellent football - a hipster Ancelotti.

 

[keniget]

How can you evaluate in the short term whether a short term strategy with long term negatives was a good idea?

Fair point, but suppose it's been ~4 years or so since Laporta returned and perhaps you can reflect on whether the direction of travel is positive or negative.

There is a line of thinking that maintaining the profile of the club is key to rehabilitating the club and that "starting over" would've been ruinous... if you are persuaded by that, then the fact that they've got a potential superstar in Yamal and are capable of winning titles is very positive progress.

 

[Farkmaster]

Fair point, but suppose it's been ~4 years or so since Laporta returned and perhaps you can reflect on whether the direction of travel is positive or negative.

There is a line of thinking that maintaining the profile of the club is key to rehabilitating the club and that "starting over" would've been ruinous... if you are persuaded by that, then the fact that they've got a potential superstar in Yamal and are capable of winning titles is very positive progress.

It's definitely working right now on the pitch, and their team is young.

So many of the things in football that seem financially risky to me work, but it's because football keeps making more money and valuations of clubs keep increasing regardless of revenue. That won't happen forever. Some huge clubs are going to lose the game of musical chairs they've elected to play when that happens.

 

[Beamrider]

IT's obviously a massive turn-around football wise, and they've been a tad lucky that the current crop of youngsters is exceptional, beyond what they would normally expect. La Masia is an excellent foundation and will always produce players worthy of playing for the club, but Yamal is an incredible talent, the likes of which you build a team around and not the kind of player you expect to produce every 4-5 years on average.
But they've also removed their safety net with all of these financial levers, so they're going to have to sustain it and build from a position of strength, by which I mean re-build the foundations of the club, not splash fortunes on players who may or may not improve them.
And their track record says they'll go down the splash fortunes on players route.
Final question is whether the re-furb of Camp Nou will be transformative or not. I'm not convinced, but then I haven't looked into it in a great deal of detail.
TLDR - I'm on the fence.

 

[Beamrider]

It's definitely working right now on the pitch, and their team is young.

So many of the things in football that seem financially risky to me work, but it's because football keeps making more money and valuations of clubs keep increasing regardless of revenue. That won't happen forever. Some huge clubs are going to lose the game of musical chairs they've elected to play when that happens.

Agree 100%. I've said it before, football club valuations are bullshit. Barely any clubs throw off surplus cash. By any conventional business valuation model they are worthless. The valuations are only sustained because there are schmucks out there who will pay top dollar to get their hands on them, like NFTs. If the game loses its glamour the clubs will lose their perceived worth.

 

[peterhague]

I can't remember how much they staked, so you need that figure to know what they had to generate in terms of revenue. Off the top of my head it wasn't anything too mad - as long as they maintained expected CL participation etc that was probably gonna be fine. The risk was more that it left them exposed to real problems had they suffered a serious downturn in fortunes.

So yeah they'll probably get away with it. Doesn't mean it wasn't seriously reckless.

 

[bluebell]

The Spanish Giants don't give any managers credit in the bank. Ancelotti won a double last season but due to this seasons failing want him out. Flick will be fired unless he wins the domestic or European title next season

 

[darkstarexodus]

Flick has been a brilliant appointment for them. He seems to work well with talented squads of big clubs and has them playing excellent football - a hipster Ancelotti.

He has turned out to be far better than I expected. I had him pegged as a low cost option chosen because he was out of contract.

But he's gotten them humming along very well in such a short time. Hate Barca but kudos to him.

 

[peekay]

While I appreciate the fan base ambitions, I think the sheer pressure to consider any season where they don’t win the league or CL as a failure, the way fans elect the board, means that they will get into trouble at some point. Or they will skew the rules so that there is no meaningful competition in Europe also, like they have in the La Liga.

The Madrid media are hitting on Ancelotti. The crime- not qualifying for the CL semifinal for the first time in five years.

 

[peterhague]

While I appreciate the fan base ambitions, I think the sheer pressure to consider any season where they don’t win the league or CL as a failure, the way fans elect the board, means that they will get into trouble at some point. Or they will skew the rules so that there is no meaningful competition in Europe also, like they have in the La Liga.

The Madrid media are hitting on Ancelotti. The crime- not qualifying for the CL semifinal for the first time in five years.

It's like any democracy, destined for bankruptcy by the need to bribe the voters with their own money.

 

[YNWA]

Fair point, but suppose it's been ~4 years or so since Laporta returned and perhaps you can reflect on whether the direction of travel is positive or negative.

There is a line of thinking that maintaining the profile of the club is key to rehabilitating the club and that "starting over" would've been ruinous... if you are persuaded by that, then the fact that they've got a potential superstar in Yamal and are capable of winning titles is very positive progress.

Agreed that on the field they are doing quite well this year. A bit of luck that a great set of academy players i.e. Yamal, Balde, Cubarsi, Bernal, Casado etc., plus young players bought from other teams like Pedri, Gavi have performed at a very high level. Appointing Flik has also turned out to be a great move.

Financially they are still in deep trouble due to massive cumulative losses over the years. La Liga sets the wage budget for every club & Barca's budget has nose dived in the last 2-3 years. This has forced them to do lots of accounting tricks and mortgage future revenue streams (call it economic levers) such as sale of TV rights, Barca studios, differed wages, sale of VIP seats in the new stadium & tried to book it as revenue this year (was eventually rejected after two audits). The new stadium which will open next year will be a big help however its a continuous fire fight for them.

Overall its a high risk strategy and till now they are just about getting away with it.

 

[peekay]

At some point we need to stop attributing luck to La Masia producing so many good players. Yes, luck does play a part. But there is something structurally good there.

 

[Judge Jules]

"The harder I practise, the luckier I get". [Gary Player]

 

[darkstarexodus]

At some point we need to stop attributing luck to La Masia producing so many good players. Yes, luck does play a part. But there is something structurally good there.

I think the luck is in having a truly generational player come through at a time when they are particularly vulnerable financially.

Not that they're lucky to be producing so many good players.

 

[Red Bird]

Flick has been a brilliant appointment for them. He seems to work well with talented squads of big clubs and has them playing excellent football - a hipster Ancelotti.

I think this is it. It’s all very well slashing the cash but with ordinary coaching, you’re unlikely to go far. Look at the mob down the East Lancs. Road.

We hit the heights with Klopp, an inspired appointment, as much as good recruitment.

Barcelona is experiencing the same. Problem is, it will probably splurge, badly, once it gets comfortable.

 

[YNWA]

At some point we need to stop attributing luck to La Masia producing so many good players. Yes, luck does play a part. But there is something structurally good there.

Of course they are great at producing players. The luck comment was regarding the timing given their financial troubles