Poll Dear FSG - Invest in Our Team or Sell to Someone Who Will.

[localny]

Our players today confirmed they are a great bunch. We don't need a major rebuild. We need a minor investment. We need cover in midfield and defense. But it seems FSG won't invest in a way that empowers our lads to succeed in this new climate.

FSG bought an asset for 400M, that is now worth in the region of $3BN to $4BN. That's some return.

But in spite of this valued asset, they seem disinterested. They invest the bare minimum. They are not supporting a once in a generation manager with squad investment. We have a threadbare squad. When they buy, it's barely enough.

They could easily take out some loans against the asset to invest in players, but they don't. They tell us we can't compete with the sports washers. But in truth, we have already have and would again- with just a little more investment. It's not a major rebuild at this point, but a minor investment. BUT, FSG refuse.

So we respectfully ask FSG to either invest more substantially in the squad or sell to an entity that will. Because this manager, this team, city, and this supporter base deserve owners who will.

 

[FreshRed]

Our players today confirmed they are a great bunch. We don't need a major rebuild. We need a minor investment. We need cover in midfield and defense. But it seems FSG won't invest in a way that empowers our lads to succeed in this new climate.

FSG bought an asset for 400M, that is now worth in the region of $3BN to $4BN. That's some return.

But in spite of this valued asset, they seem disinterested. They invest the bare minimum. They are not supporting a once in a generation manager with squad investment. We have a threadbare squad. When they buy, it's barely enough.

They could easily take out some loans against the asset to invest in players, but they don't. They tell us we can't compete with the sports washers. But in truth, we have already have and would again- with just a little more investment. It's not a major rebuild at this point, but a minor investment. BUT, FSG refuse.

So we respectfully ask FSG to either invest more substantially in the squad or sell to an entity that will. Because this manager, this team, city, and this supporter base deserve owners who will.

You really want them to take debt against the club? Be careful what you wish for and interest rates are going through the roof.

 

[737Max]

embarrassing

 

[StevieM]

The question is - why? Why would they?

I mean - yes, obviously to be more successful and win more trophies, etc.

But why? - it’s not going to grow the “value” of the club significantly and not being “successful”isn’t going to diminish the clubs “value” significantly from where we currently are.

They’re not leeching money out of the club or loading us with unsustainable debt and we’re not a front for whatever the latest sports wash is - so there’s at least the pretence of having a soul.

If you had John Henry’s money (actual Vs paper) and he just gave you all his shares in FSG - how much of your own money would you be interested in spending on The Red Sox or the Penguins - how much of your own money is a World Series or Stanley Cup worth?

There’s criticisms there - ab-so-fucking-lutely!!! - where’s the recruitment of elite back room staff - where’s the young player recruitment strategy (which actually will bring financial returns), why are we hanging on to underperforming players, where’s the sharp incisiveness in our squad development.

FSG & transfer monies is partly a red herring.

 

[jexykrodic]

Valuations of 3-4Bn sound optimistic if not ridiculous to me. Who is going to lump in that sort of money before investing further?

Best FSG can hope for is sponsors/partner/investors in my opinion.

 

[Judge Jules]

The question is - why? Why would they?

I mean - yes, obviously to be more successful and win more trophies, etc.

But why? - it’s not going to grow the “value” of the club significantly and not being “successful”isn’t going to diminish the clubs “value” significantly from where we currently are.

They’re not leeching money out of the club or loading us with unsustainable debt and we’re not a front for whatever the latest sports wash is - so there’s at least the pretence of having a soul.

If you had John Henry’s money (actual Vs paper) and he just gave you all his shares in FSG - how much of your own money would you be interested in spending on The Red Sox or the Penguins - how much of your own money is a World Series or Stanley Cup worth?

There’s criticisms there - ab-so-fucking-lutely!!! - where’s the recruitment of elite back room staff - where’s the young player recruitment strategy (which actually will bring financial returns), why are we hanging on to underperforming players, where’s the sharp incisiveness in our squad development.

FSG & transfer monies is partly a red herring.

Not sure about that. The risk they run by keeping things ticking over, as opposed to actively moving the club forward, is that the return on their investment - which is still massive, even if it isn't their only one - may stagnate, or worse. Standing still could amount to going backwards, given the trajectory of other top level clubs.

 

[localny]

Valuations of 3-4Bn sound optimistic if not ridiculous to me. Who is going to lump in that sort of money before investing further?

Best FSG can hope for is sponsors/partner/investors in my opinion.

chelsea was sold for what? 4bn
United are being looked at for what? 5bn?

I’m not sure to suggest it’s ridiculous to look for less than them at 3bn.

 

[localny]

Not sure about that. The risk they run by keeping things ticking over, as opposed to actively moving the club forward, is that the return on their investment - which is still massive, even if it isn't their only one - may stagnate, or worse. Standing still could amount to going backwards, given the trajectory of other top level clubs.

This is the point. You struggle to attract top managers, top players, top staff and a backwards momentum starts again. But this time your don’t have a Stevie g or a Jurgen Klopp stepping in to keep it all ticking. And yes the valuation declines.

it’s in their interest to invest. While it’s not a Major overhaul but just a handful of good buys. If they don’t invest it will cost a lot more in 3 years to get back to 2023

 

[Donavan Ried]

FSG should sell if they don't want to invest and stop being like ticks and sucking the blood out of the club

 

[localny]

It just seems they’re content where we are. They’re not that engaged and they’re putting their time and money elsewhere. That’s ok. But we want better than that.

 

[localny]

You really want them to take debt against the club? Be careful what you wish for and interest rates are going through the roof.

not a Glazer like leverage. More like a home equity loan to keep the asset in good shape and pay it back gradually.

 

[StevieM]

Not sure about that. The risk they run by keeping things ticking over, as opposed to actively moving the club forward, is that the return on their investment - which is still massive, even if it isn't their only one - may stagnate, or worse. Standing still could amount to going backwards, given the trajectory of other top level clubs.

I disagree to an extent.

The value of the club is not tied solely to success - football is weird like that.

Our “brand” is strong - we’re not going to cease being relevant overnight. Our revenue has been growing steadily - commercially & (when the stadium is completed) on match days.

A lot of the club’s value is tied to being in the Premier League - not just in terms of money, but exposure, commercial opportunities, relatively fixed income, etc

Also - at what point does the “value” of the club actually matter? What difference does it make if we’re worth £5 billion or £50 billion? How does it affect the club if we slip from being nominally worth £5b to nominally worth £2b?

We’re very much not the distressed asset FSG bought cheaply and unlikely to ever be that way again - although one way to get there would be to overstretch on loans the club would be liable for.

 

[localny]

No-one's talking about massive loans though Stevie. Just a little to keep the team updated.

 

[StevieM]

No-one's talking about massive loans though Stevie. Just a little to keep the team updated.

We’ve got that though, haven’t we - I’m more concerned about what we’re doing with the resources at our disposal - there seems no rhyme nor reason to it.

One day we’re bidding a world record £115m, the next we’re signing a £15m 30 year old and nothing else.

There’s funds there - I don’t think FSG are sitting there saying “you can only have the money if you sign Caicedo - otherwise no spendies for you!!!”

That’s the bit the worries me more - we need to be better at utilising the resources we have available - let alone look for additional.

 

[localny]

That one is baffling for sure. We suddenly had 115M. I am guessing they don't want to be fleeced (as people see the bulging pockets) and that's why nothing is happening.

 

[StevieM]

That one is baffling for sure. We suddenly had 115M. I am guessing they don't want to be fleeced and that's why nothing is happening.

We also decided to tie up resources extending older players contracts - and bumper ones at that.

Now, that makes sense - but equally causes problems., as we’re seeing - we’ve just not been very good at it.

There’s something not right in terms of the clubs structure around player recruitment and retention and I honestly don’t know where the blame is there - FSG, club executive management or Klopp himself - but for me, that’s the bit that’s failing most and more worrying than FSG splurging on players.

There appears to be no strategy to make whatever financial restrictions we have actually work - well, I mean, sometimes there does and sometimes we look clueless - this window has been a microcosm of that.

 

[Judge Jules]

I disagree to an extent.

The value of the club is not tied solely to success - football is weird like that.

Our “brand” is strong - we’re not going to cease being relevant overnight. Our revenue has been growing steadily - commercially & (when the stadium is completed) on match days.

A lot of the club’s value is tied to being in the Premier League - not just in terms of money, but exposure, commercial opportunities, relatively fixed income, etc

Also - at what point does the “value” of the club actually matter? What difference does it make if we’re worth £5 billion or £50 billion? How does it affect the club if we slip from being nominally worth £5b to nominally worth £2b?

We’re very much not the distressed asset FSG bought cheaply and unlikely to ever be that way again - although one way to get there would be to overstretch on loans the club would be liable for.

Sorry mate, this misses the point, at least to some extent. The point I was and still am making isn't how the club would be affected, but how FSG themselves would be affected if their investment begins to lose value. Their financial strategy was the right one to get us back to the top level but, in sticking to it beyond that point (in defiance of the practice that other top clubs adopt of strengthening while they're still strong), they're running the risk of their approach turning into false economy which could end up being counterproductive by taking the value of their investment distinctly southwards.

As far as your subsequent posts are concerned, I agree that there's a hiccup in the system but I don't think it's that difficult to diagnose, especially after the Bellingham fiasco which IMO laid it bare. My "diagnosis" is that there's a clash between FSG's ongoing tightness on transfer spending and Klopp's insistence - which I for one agree with 100% - that there is zero point in the kind of "near enough is good enough" signings which kept us mired in mediocrity all those years.

 

[localny]

And who wants to sign for a club that has no chance of winning things? We are close to being a PL winning team again with some great signings.

and an amazing manager. So why not go the extra few hundred yards (not even a mile) and get those 2-4 world class signings in

 

[StevieM]

And who wants to sign for a club that has no chance of winning things? We are close to being a PL winning team again with some great signings.

and an amazing manager. So why not go the extra few hundred yards (not even a mile) and get those 2-4 world class signings in

Players will sign for whoever offers them more money than they’re currently on - winning things is not as important to many of them.

Players have been known to sign for Everton…

 

[StevieM]

Sorry mate, this misses the point, at least to some extent. The point I was and still am making isn't how the club would be affected, but how FSG themselves would be affected if their investment begins to lose value. Their financial strategy was the right one to get us back to the top level but, in sticking to it beyond that point (in defiance of the practice that other top clubs adopt of strengthening while they're still strong), they're running the risk of their approach turning into false economy which could end up being counterproductive by taking the value of their investment distinctly southwards.

As far as your subsequent posts are concerned, I agree that there's a hiccup in the system but I don't think it's that difficult to diagnose, especially after the Bellingham fiasco which IMO laid it bare. My "diagnosis" is that there's a clash between FSG's ongoing tightness on transfer spending and Klopp's insistence - which I for one agree with 100% - that there is zero point in the kind of "near enough is good enough" signings which kept us mired in mediocrity all those years.

Again - how will FSG be affected? - and realistically, how much do you think the value of the club will fall?

I think to drive the value of the club distinctly down would require a lot to happen - not just a few years without trophies - or even a few years outside of the Champions League.

 

[Judge Jules]

I don't know how much the value of the club would drop, but it will if we're no longer in the running for the big prizes on a regular basis. That to me means the Premiership and Bigears, and only those two trophies - FA Cup, Carabou Cup, even Europa League won't cut it.

How will FSG be affected if the value of their multi-million dollar investment in LFC drops? In their pockets, which is (quite understandably) the reason why they bought the club in the first place so, to them, any drop will be significant.

 

[StevieM]

I don't know how much the value of the club would drop, but it will if we're no longer in the running for the big prizes on a regular basis. That to me means the Premiership and Bigears, and only those two trophies - FA Cup, Carabou Cup, even Europa League won't cut it.

How will FSG be affected if the value of their multi-million dollar investment in LFC drops? In their pockets, which is (quite understandably) the reason why they bought the club in the first place so, to them, any drop will be significant.

Let me ask again - how are FSG impacted in their pockets - the value of the club going up and down only impacts their pockets if/when they sell - on a day to day basis there’s no impact. They aren’t taking significant money out of the club and they aren’t liable for mounds of debt.

The investments they have made - in developing Anfield & the training ground actually add to the clubs value - being successful does too, but success isn’t as essential as people think it is.

I think football exists in its own microcosm - where all the normal rules don’t apply - why else would the 2023 Deloitte Top 20 Club Rich List include Leicester, Leeds & Everton? (We’re No 3 behind City & Real).

The big clubs are basically just over half the EPL plus PSG, Real, Barca, Atletico, Bayern, Dortmund, AC, Inter & Juve - do by just bring in the EPL we’re practically certain to always be one of the biggest clubs in the world - regardless of whether we’re regularly challenging for Big Ears or the EPL.

If FSG want a better ROI - they’d be better chucking money at the women’s team - that’s where the big growth is.

 

[RedStar]

My view on FSG is that they had a long term plan that hinged on 2 things. Firstly was FFP ensuring there was no arms race of runaway spending with state sponsored clubs, and second was a European Super League which would allow them to turbocharge our revenue streams.

They were catastrophically wrong in both instances and now find themselves in an ecosystem where they cant/won't compete long term. They want out and I'd bet they sell up in the medium term. Newcastle sale was the writing on the wall for them.

 

[Woland]

It's very easy to see how they're impacted. We turn over five hundred million quid and are conservatively valued at three billion, so six times revenue. Which means not qualifying for the CL is an eighty million times six quantum of a problem.

Half a billion quid.

 

[FreshRed]

not a Glazer like leverage. More like a home equity loan to keep the asset in good shape and pay it back gradually.

Home equity works for long term assets - so would make sense for stadium improvements, but borrowing to buy players, who can rapidly lose value, is a very risky game.

 

[localny]

I’d imagine not qualifying for the CL year after year is something that would negatively impact the valuation of the club?

 

[localny]

My view on FSG is that they had a long term plan that hinged on 2 things. Firstly was FFP ensuring there was no arms race of runaway spending with state sponsored clubs, and second was a European Super League which would allow them to turbocharge our revenue streams.

They were catastrophically wrong in both instances and now find themselves in an ecosystem where they cant/won't compete long term. They want out and I'd bet they sell up in the medium term. Newcastle sale was the writing on the wall for them.

good point. So you reckon, they are done trying to compete? Don’t taking sizable investment risks? Not a chance of over investment in the club?

 

[rubans]

Players will sign for whoever offers them more money than they’re currently on - winning things is not as important to many of them.

Players have been known to sign for Everton…

How many Everton players in the last 10yrs would we have wanted though? Can’t think of any.
Winning and being in CL matters, I think money is pretty relative in the top 4. I don’t see it being the biggest decider especially in a post Klopp world. I reckon reason we signed and kept hold of Salah, Van Dijk and Alisson was probably down to fact we could show we were on the up and could compete with Klopp at the helm. We became first choice even with City and Real offering more money, soon as we slip out of top 4 then we will be seen as non competitive and will have implicit knock on effect on our ability to attract the best talent.

 

[localny]

How many Everton players in the last 10yrs would we have wanted though? Can’t think of any.
Winning and being in CL matters, I think money is pretty relative in the top 4. I don’t see it being the biggest decider especially in a post Klopp world. I reckon reason we signed and kept hold of Salah, Van Dijk and Alisson was probably down to fact we could show we were on the up and could compete with Klopp at the helm. We became first choice even with City and Real offering more money, soon as we slip out of top 4 then we will be seen as non competitive and will have implicit knock on effect on our ability to attract the best talent.

Right and it becomes more and more expensive to attract the top talent. And you end up paying more for them as you can’t promise success on the field as obviously. And the right players sign for more than money. Yes they are expensive. But they want success too.

@StevieM there’s no real metric for how much decline will cost you, there’s no specific number but the valuation of a club that’s one of the best in the world and one that’s a mid tabler would be a few hundred mill at least I would imagine.

 

[RedStar]

good point. So you reckon, they are done trying to compete? Don’t taking sizable investment risks? Not a chance of over investment in the club?

I don't see it, it's simply not their operating model to overextend. That's been clear over the last 10 years, they will invest where they see value but the market has been destroyed for any sort of value based investor. There is no return in a market where washed up players can demand £500k a week in Saudi or an up and coming player can go for £100m off half a season of top flight games.