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Forwards’ race

rurikbird

Part of the Furniture
Honorary Member
With Slot’s more straightforward approach – a clear-cut competition for places between forwards in each positions – let’s take a look at the current state of the “race.” Our strikers’ goal contributions so far (after West Ham):

Salah - 7 games, 4 goals, 4 assists
Diaz - 6 games, 5 goals, 1 assist
Jota - 6 games, 3 goals, 1 assist
Gakpo - 7 games (2 starts), 2 goals, 1 assist
Nunez - 6 games (2 starts), 1 goal, 1 assist
Chiesa - 3 games (1 start), 0 goals, 1 assist

Overall, things are looking great so far. Salah has been our most productive attacker, as always – and he didn’t have any penalties yet to help him “pad” his stats. Diaz has been a revelation and Gakpo is matching him and pushing him hard while offering a very different type and style of wing-play. Jota’s 2 goals yesterday are a fitting reward for his hard work leading the line so far and it looks like a bit of rest helped him. No way he will get dropped at the weekend.

Nunez is the one who still most needs to improve – he followed a promising first start with a quiet game, although he did notch an assist late on. Overall he doesn’t look very confident or instinctive at the moment – I wonder if he’s one of those players who need to feel the coach’s trust to be at their best and as much as Slot tries to be encouraging, I don’t think he’s the type who will give unconditional love. Chiesa is also someone with a lot of room for improvement, but that has more to do with building up his physical condition. It’s great that all 6 forwards are already off the mark in terms of goal contributions 7 games into the season, even the ones with limited playing time are doing something useful with their minutes.

What’s the biggest improvement you would like to see in our attack?
 
Arne Slot: “How do we keep Diogo fit? Rotate!! I think we are trying to manage his minutes in the best possible way, but we also try to prepare him in the week and the months of pre-season to prepare them for so many games in the Premier League.”

For us to be successfull this season we need to keep him fit.
 
I think Nunez has been good the last 2 games. Not great, but you can tell he's trying to be more what slot wants in a 9, but it's just not quite clicked for him yet. It's not his natural game, so I think he's doing alright considering
 
Using 'games' is really silly when some of those 'games' are 11', 14', 18' etc. For example Salah and Gakpo both have '7 games' but Mo more than x2 the minutes.

Using your G+A in the OP.

Salah - 564 mins = 141 per goal or 70.5 per goal involvement
Jota - 482 mins = 161 per goal or 120.5 per goal involvement
Diaz - 383 mins = 76.6 per goal or 63.8 per goal involvement
Gakpo - 258 mins = 129 per goal or 86 per goal involvement
Nunez : 224 mins = 224 per goal or 112 per goal involvement
Chiesa - 78 mins = X per goal or 78 per goal involvement

This is a little simplistic as who they scored against, what defender they were 1 on 1 with and the state of the game and competition all matter too.
 
Arne Slot: “How do we keep Diogo fit? Rotate!! I think we are trying to manage his minutes in the best possible way, but we also try to prepare him in the week and the months of pre-season to prepare them for so many games in the Premier League.”

For us to be successfull this season we need to keep him fit.
Slot has a lot of trust in Nunez, evidently...
 
Using 'games' is really silly when some of those 'games' are 11', 14', 18' etc. For example Salah and Gakpo both have '7 games' but Mo more than x2 the minutes.

Using your G+A in the OP.

Salah - 564 mins = 141 per goal or 70.5 per goal involvement
Jota - 482 mins = 161 per goal or 120.5 per goal involvement
Diaz - 383 mins = 76.6 per goal or 63.8 per goal involvement
Gakpo - 258 mins = 129 per goal or 86 per goal involvement
Nunez : 224 mins = 224 per goal or 112 per goal involvement
Chiesa - 78 mins = X per goal or 78 per goal involvement

This is a little simplistic as who they scored against, what defender they were 1 on 1 with and the state of the game and competition all matter too.

Minutes defo need to be added in for context, counting Fede's "game" at Milan is an insult. Good job Froggy.
 
Overall we can be pretty pleased with how things are going. Diaz and Gakpo have surpassed expectations.

Nit-picking - for me a few questions remain over the 9 role. Jota or Nunez have been putting in reasonable to good performances, but there's room for improvement. It's very rare all attackers are on-song at the same time. For now the left side is really delivering and I'd expect that to shift around during the year. Slot giving more defined roles in terms of positions will help us evaluate how the attack is knitting together and make some decisions down the line.
 
Great to have 6 options. Let's see how Rico fits in, but I like that Slot seems set on Gakpo as a LW as that will help him focus on that side of his game versus spending two games as a #9 the two games LW and then two games #8 for us like he seemed to do last season, getting no rhythm.
 
Hasnt Gakpo got 4 goals? Or did i dream that...
I wouldn't put it past some of these lot on here to take a goal away from one striker and give it to anther because of their personal agenda(s). But hey we still don't have as many charges as city so its all good !!!
 
You must be counting national team goals, mate. Gakpo hasn’t scored until last night.
That makes sense, or maybe preseason..

In answer to your question i think id like to see our wingers cross the ball more / once in a while, (maybe darwin can head it? Jota certainly can) and i know its not easy against the low block, but id like to see the through ball in behind the full back more often for diaz/mo/cody to run onto to put across the face of goal or pull back
 
Using 'games' is really silly when some of those 'games' are 11', 14', 18' etc. For example Salah and Gakpo both have '7 games' but Mo more than x2 the minutes.

Using your G+A in the OP.

Salah - 564 mins = 141 per goal or 70.5 per goal involvement
Jota - 482 mins = 161 per goal or 120.5 per goal involvement
Diaz - 383 mins = 76.6 per goal or 63.8 per goal involvement
Gakpo - 258 mins = 129 per goal or 86 per goal involvement
Nunez : 224 mins = 224 per goal or 112 per goal involvement
Chiesa - 78 mins = X per goal or 78 per goal involvement

This is a little simplistic as who they scored against, what defender they were 1 on 1 with and the state of the game and competition all matter too.

Oh god… we’re not going to have to have this argument again are we?

Goals per minute don’t tell you any more or give more insight that goals per game and it tells you nothing new.

Goals per game isn’t perfect, but it’s a good basic indicator.

Goals per minute is so misused - and the data doesn’t tell people what they think it does - you’re kind of doing it with the Gakpo stats.

Take the basic per game stats - Mo 4 in 7 and Gakpo 2 in 7 - extrapolate that out to played, say 50 games - Mo will score 29 (rounded up) goals in all comps this season - which is basically the same result as every season since he’s been here.

Gakpo on the other hand would be dues to score 14.

Let’s see how far my prediction is out that Salah will score 29 goals and Gakpo will score 14 in all comps for Liverpool this season - based on current goals per game.

That’d be a great result for Gakpo by the way.
 
Oh god… we’re not going to have to have this argument again are we?

Goals per minute don’t tell you any more or give more insight that goals per game and it tells you nothing new.

Goals per game isn’t perfect, but it’s a good basic indicator.

Goals per minute is so misused - and the data doesn’t tell people what they think it does - you’re kind of doing it with the Gakpo stats.

Take the basic per game stats - Mo 4 in 7 and Gakpo 2 in 7 - extrapolate that out to played, say 50 games - Mo will score 29 (rounded up) goals in all comps this season - which is basically the same result as every season since he’s been here.

Gakpo on the other hand would be dues to score 14.

Let’s see how far my prediction is out that Salah will score 29 goals and Gakpo will score 14 in all comps for Liverpool this season - based on current goals per game.

That’d be a great result for Gakpo by the way.

Only if you decide to make a big fuss over it.

None of this explains why you have such a problem with someone bringing minutes into the equation.

Mo scoring 29 and Gakpo 14 isn't the point. Mo will still have likely played 2-3x the minutes as Gakpo to do that, that's all it tells us. It's not to put anyone over or under someone else.

Last season Mo scored 25 and assisted 14 in 3,132 mins of football. (7 pens)
Last season Gakpo scored 16 and assisted 6 in 3,017 mins of football. (0 pens)

Barely any minutes between the 2 and even if there were they aren't used to champion one over the other in any way. Whether you prefer to use goals to game, goals to minutes or recognise both doesn't really matter......seeing as both are factual.
 
There are number of obvious reasons why some players play more minutes than others and it's factor 🙂
 
Oh god… we’re not going to have to have this argument again are we?
Yes we are.

Goals per game isn’t perfect, but it’s a good basic indicator.
No it's not. It's misleading and the reason why is blindingly obvious.

Goals per minute is so misused - and the data doesn’t tell people what they think it does - you’re kind of doing it with the Gakpo stats.

Take the basic per game stats - Mo 4 in 7 and Gakpo 2 in 7 - extrapolate that out to played, say 50 games - Mo will score 29 (rounded up) goals in all comps this season - which is basically the same result as every season since he’s been here.

Gakpo on the other hand would be dues to score 14.

That’d be a great result for Gakpo by the way.

Of course it does. It can be misused but over a season it's pretty indicative. What has Mo's 'same result as every season' got to do with anything? Gakpo wouldn't be happy since he scored more last season !

You'd have to come up with a spectacularly warped hypothesis to conclude that more minutes on the pitch doesn't equate to more chances and therefore more goals.
 
Only if you decide to make a big fuss over it.

None of this explains why you have such a problem with someone bringing minutes into the equation.

Mo scoring 29 and Gakpo 14 isn't the point. Mo will still have likely played 2-3x the minutes as Gakpo to do that, that's all it tells us. It's not to put anyone over or under someone else.

Last season Mo scored 25 and assisted 14 in 3,132 mins of football. (7 pens)
Last season Gakpo scored 16 and assisted 6 in 3,017 mins of football. (0 pens)

Barely any minutes between the 2 and even if there were they aren't used to champion one over the other in any way. Whether you prefer to use goals to game, goals to minutes or recognise both doesn't really matter......seeing as both are factual.


Well that’s the point - if all minutes played tells us that Mo plays more minutes than Gakpo, then it’s useless information.

You’re proving it with that data - because the inference is that if you remove penalties, Mo and Gakpo scored at close to the same rate - which isn’t the case in actuality - it’s painting a false picture

Mo played in 45 games Gakpo in 53… which changes everything and is more reflective of what actually happened - ie Mo scores at a significantly better rate than Gakpo.

What I’m saying is… if you are going to use “minutes played” you then need to overlay that with the average minutes that player plays per game - and once you do that… it brings it back to goals per game.

In its own, minutes played doesn’t really tell you anything - like last season when Nunez scored a few off the bench and silly people started extrapolating that he’d score 30 a season if he was given more playing time - all that happened was the more he played the worse his goals per minute became - so it told us nothing.
 
Yes we are.


No it's not. It's misleading and the reason why is blindingly obvious.



Of course it does. It can be misused but over a season it's pretty indicative. What has Mo's 'same result as every season' got to do with anything? Gakpo wouldn't be happy since he scored more last season !

You'd have to come up with a spectacularly warped hypothesis to conclude that more minutes on the pitch doesn't equate to more chances and therefore more goals.

Equally more games played equals more goals and assists - but minutes played is not a useful predictor.
 
Well that’s the point - if all minutes played tells us that Mo plays more minutes than Gakpo, then it’s useless information.

You’re proving it with that data - because the inference is that if you remove penalties and Gakpo scored at close to the same rate - which isn’t the case in actuality - it’s painting a false picture

Mo played in 45 games Gakpo in 53… which changes everything and is more reflective of what actually happened - ie Mo scores at a significantly better rate than Gakpo.

What I’m saying is… if you are going to use “minutes played” you then need to overlay that with the average minutes that player plays per game - and once you do that… it brings it back to goals per game.

In its own, minutes played doesn’t really tell you anything - like last season when Nunez scored a few off the bench and silly people started extrapolating that he’d score 30 a season if he was given more playing time - all that happened was the more he played the worse his goals per minute became - so it told us nothing.

Thanks for saving me the trouble of writing this (and potentially getting into an argument with Froggy!). Both per game or per minute methods have their drawbacks (like Chiesa’s “game” vs Milan where he only had one touch), but despite the drawbacks I find per game a bit more intuitive. Just need to specify starts vs substitute appeeances. Like you say, per minute system seems more precise, but you can’t really extrapolate from that; footballers are not some sort of algorithms who will put the ball in the net every 155 minutes or whatever regardless of circumstance.
 
Equally more games played equals more goals and assists - but minutes played is not a useful predictor.
You simply can't be that dense. And I know you're not.

38 games of 2 - 30 mins is still 38 games vs 38 games of 60-90 mins = 38 games. Who's going to score more? It's bloody simple.
 
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