Betting One Cheltenham Bet

[Paddy]

Here's one of mine. My compulsory Lucky 15.

1euro e/w

Selections

Red Moloney - Supreme novice hurdle 9/1,

Forpadydeplasterer - Arkle chase 9/1

Patsy Hall - William hill trophy 10/1

Muirhead - Champion hurdle 33/1

Best of luck if anyone goes with it.

 

[Rosco]

I did a Yankee on the following :

Kasbah Bliss
Voy Por Ustedes
Master Minded
Exotic Dancer

 

[Piedro]

I was gonna have £20 on Planet Of Sound (only horse i fancy all wk) until Mark Mc tipped it up in the Cheltenham tipster thread.

Cheers Mark.

 

[Rosco]

I followed this lads tips 2 years ago and landed a few big winners, L'Antartique (20/1) , Massini's Maguire (25/1) along with a few others. I turned 50 euro into 400 that week at Cheltenham (And I missed a 40/1 winner he tipped on the first day). Last year he wasn't as good, but did still keep his head above water :

The ChelteNHam Festival Thesis 2009
Is it that time of year again already?. Time for the best four days sport anywhere on the planet, and probably the solar system as well with as usual plenty of questions that require answers. Are the rest of his rivals wasting their time turning up in the Champion Chase such is Master Minded’s grip on that race? Will Binocular get up the hill in the Champion Hurdle in front?. Those are just two of the questions we will find out the answers to this week that will see the same amount wagered per race that Christiano Ronaldo earns in a year. I am sure the traditionalists will all be up in arms about the thought of a race purely for conditional jockeys, but they are probably the same people who reckon its not a real Epsom Derby because it is run on a Saturday rather than the Wednesday of days gone by and moan about how Wagon Wheels are a lot smaller than they were in their day.

1.30 Supreme Novices Hurdle

The race that some pundits have almost given up as a banker of the meeting in Cousin Vinny, but would you honestly be lumping on a horse in the first race of the meeting?. He did win the bumper at last year’s meeting but fails on two of the main trends for this race in that he didn’t win last time out and also ran less than a month ago so I have to oppose him on those grounds alone, even before his jockey’s ability or lack of it as some pundits have been unkind to opine in at least one preview night recently. Where do we look if not at him then?.

Torphichen, apart from being a little village not that far from where I live, is second favourite and again has two stats to overcome. He is a four year old, and only one horse has won this race from that age group in the last ten years and that was the French-bred
Hors La Loi. Also with a last run less than a month ago, he fails on the rest time stat as well. Another thing that can be pointed out about him as a negative, is that he has raced almost exclusively right-handed and therefore we have no way of knowing if he will be as good going this way round. With such negatives I have to be against him at the current prices. Michael Flips is also prominent in the betting and whilst he does pass the rest time test, his price owes much to punters having backed him when it looked like AP McCoy was going to ride him. With the champion riding Ainama for his retained owner JP McManus, and Mark Grant riding Michael Flips then the Turnell runner has to be avoided at these prices.

Ainama took a walk in the betting after being beaten at Kempton last time out, but I couldn’t have this one on my mind anyway given Nicky Henderson’s poor win record in this race in recent times. Go Native and Red Moloney are also negatives with the rest time from their last race, and I am also not convinced Go Native has beaten anything of note as yet in his race whilst I cannot have a Musselburgh winner winning the Supreme Novices Hurdle so the Johnson runner gets the heave as well.

So, having dismissed the chances of plenty of the shorter priced runners who all fail on the three main trends I use for picking the winner(more than month off, Irish trained and winner last time out), which horse gets the seal of approval as passing the stat test?. There is actually only one horse that passes all three stats and that horse is the “second string†of Willie Mullins namely Kempes who has been very well supported in recent weeks. He was tipped up by Pricewise at 33/1 very early as a lively outsider and with the fact Ruby Walsh rides,added to the continuing gamble that has seen him contract into 12/1 now I have to be with him. He has only has two runs so far for the Mullins stable but was a reasonable flat horse for Frances Crowley. On his last run, I was most impressed with the way he travelled and jumped that day and he has form on both soft and better ground, and at around 12/1 he will be my only bet in the race and be 1pt e/w to start the day on a good note before we really get stuck into the rest of the races.

2.05 Arkle Trophy

I have already had an 2pt Win Only Ante-Post bet at 6/1 in this race on a horse that I see being the next horse to emulate Arkle and Best Mate in winning multiple Gold Cups in years to come, and will be astonished if it is beaten here. The best jumper of a steeplechase fence that I have seen in years has to be Henrietta Knight’s Calgary Bay who is tremendous value here at 11/2. He is two from three at Cheltenham, including his spectacular win here on New Years Day, albeit over further than the trip he faces here of 2m. However, in his favour is that if we look back at the history of the race, you have usually needed a horse that is at least capable of staying 2m4f plus to win this and his stamina and jumping ability will put him in the race where AP wants him to be. The fact that the trainer has been able to get McCoy for this horse is a massive plus in my opinion also given that he will make the horse run better than Dominic Elesworth. Don’t get me wrong I like the young jockey a lot, and wouldn’t have any qualms about him riding one I fancy but there is only one champion jockey and I was expecting his presence on the horse to contract the price but that hasn’t happened which is surprising.

I cant have Tatenen at the likely prices as the form of his win over C&D hasn’t worked out and he didn’t beat much that day(Straw Bear is a shadow of the horse that had been a leading contender for the Champion Hurdle two years ago and Crescent Island needs a big field to be seen at his best). I always think that Paul Nicholls runners are always over-hyped, especially his Novice chasers, and it is worth remembering that his Noland was the favourite for this very race last season before finishing third behind Tidal Bay.

Of the others, I am also against I’msingingtheblues for the same reason as Tatenen in as much as he is a Nicholls trained novice chaser and is priced up on trainer rather than form book reckoning, Forpaddydeplasterer is an absolute dog who just doesn’t want to win(how can he be half the odds of Golden Silver when that rival has already beaten him?), and Planet of Sound looked to have the Grand Annual at his mercy but will he has as good a chance in this?. As already mentioned Golden Silver looks to be a lively outsider, having been rested since beating Forpaddydeplasterer at Leopardstown back at the end of January. It shouldn’t be seen as a negative that Ruby Walsh rides him as Paul Towend has been on board on the horse’s last two runs and at 20/1 I would stake 0.5pts each way on him at 20/1 along with one other Irish runner who looks overpriced at 33/1 in the shape of Edward O’Grady’s Bringbackthebiff who might look like a no-hoper on form, but I was impressed with the way he has travelled and jumped in his races so far since joining his current stable(Was trained in New Zealand previously) and at the prices rates a small e/w interest under the very talented Andrew McNamara.

2.40 William Hill Trophy

So after a couple of novice events, we get into the first of the handicaps of the week and a chance to back two horses both for 1pt e/w, who have been previous Festival winners and have shown definite form under the unique conditions this marvellous week demands of its combatants.

Firstly, I have to be against Wichita Lineman who looks a little paceless and also is up against it with Jonjo’s terrible record in handicap chases at the festival in recent years(0-32). Might stay on for a place but can’t believe he didn’t wait a day to run him in the four miler. I also have to be against the French raider Millennium Royal who is one that I believe has to be racing on a flat track to be seen at his best so will not handle conditions here with the undulations of the Prestbury park course not suiting him.

Talking of French runners though, both my fancies are French bred though. The main bet, at 10/1 is Paul Nicholls trained top weight Star de Mohaison who has a Cheltenham record of: 3311324 (2 wins and a second from seven runs over this track). If we take out his runs in single figure fields then that record reads: 1st-Won Sun Alliance Chase three seasons ago, 1st-won a handicap hurdle on his seasonal reappearance two seasons ago and 2nd-beaten half a length by Mon Mome at the December meeting this season with nineteen lengths back to third placed Possol who re-opposes here on just two pounds worse terms so should again finish ahead of that runner and whilst top weights do struggle to win this race, I think he is a cracking bet to at least collect on the place part of the bet and give Ruby Walsh his second winner of the day in the first three races.

The second selection, comes from the Alan King yard, and is last year’s Albert Bartlett winner Nenuphar Collonges who has a record at the track of :211 (2 -3) with the 2nd being behind Razor Royale over a trip too short. Despite the fact that he looks stamina laden, I think his last two runs have come over two far a trip and that this 3m trip is exactly what he wants and is in the right weight range based on the stats from previous years, so again rates excellent value at 18/1 in a race that, for a festival handicap isn’t loaded with unexposed runners so go with proven festival form in the two selected runners and either one places, then a very small loss may be made on the race but only minimal.


3.20 Champion Hurdle

Onto the big one, and another one of the so called bankers of the meeting in Binocular. If you got on him at about 5/1 or bigger then well done, but I cant have him at the current prices in a race like this. There are doubts about whether he gets up the Cheltenham hill, to say nothing of the fact that Katchit last year aside, five year olds do not have a good record in this race so there is that statistical angle to look at as well. His two runs this year have taught us nothing more than the horse has four legs still in working order as he beat absolute trees at Haydock and Celestial Halo is not Champion Hurdle class by any stretch of the imagination in my mind so Binocular beating him at Ascot doesn’t have much credence to these eyes. If taking him on what do we go with then?

First thing to say is six of his rivals can be discounted simply by age, all being five year olds. Crack Away Jack, Askhazar, Celestial Halo, Othermix, Won in the Dark and River Lianne. Going to the opposite end of the age spectrum, Brave Inca, Hardy Eustace,Harchibald, Alph, Cybergenic also get ruled out being in double figure ages which leaves us just half the field to concern ourselves with and I will be backing two in the race at double figure odds each way to split stakes to turn a profit in the race.

Starting with last years winner Katchit who hasn’t sparkled so far this year but I feel that can be put down to the fact he hasn’t raced at his beloved Cheltenham yet. On the flat tracks he has raced on so far this season he needs 2m4f according to his trainer so a return to the more testing track here will suit. Reports out the King yard have been encouraging in recent weeks and if he is revitalised by running here then at 14/1 he is cracking each way value with 1pt each way being the stake again.

The other selection, at massive odds, has to go to another Willie Mullins inmate in my old friend Ebaziyan who is 66/1 but if putting his best foot forward is not that far behind the rest of the raiding party from the Emerald Isle since he has his ideal conditions today. His best form has all come in races where there has been a dozen or more runners. Under those conditions, his record reads: 22181211100(5 wins and two 2nd placed efforts from eleven runs) and both the duck eggs came at last years festival. I am of the opinion that his trainer over raced him last year(his Champion Hurdle run came on his seventh start of the campaign) on desperate ground so the fact that he has only had two runs this season is a positive for me as he will be a fresh horse, despite only running nine days ago. If the Supreme Novice’s Ebazyian turned up he would be a strong fancy to get in the three and I always take the downbeat comments from his trainer with a pinch of salt as he is one of the canniest trainers around in playing down his horses chances. Because of the high regard I have for the horse I will be staking 1pt e.w on both Katchit and Ebazyian at the prices.

4.00 Cross Country Chase

A race the Irish have farmed since it’s inception and I will be backing two horses each way here, one 1pt e/w and one just 0.5pt e/w given the relative prices of both them.

At the front end of the market, I will take Dix Villez from the in form Paul Nolan yard at 7/1. I really cannot see this one not being in the first three if reproducing the form of his controversial win here earlier in the season, and that showed he had an aptitude for this idiosyncratic course and discipline. His yard has had two winners from their last four runners, and in a race where the famous McManus colours are synonymous with success the only thing it does for their runners this year is make them over-bet and under priced so the only value left is with the Nolan runner in my opinion.

At massive odds, I would just take a little chance that being reunited with the jockey who knows him best in Barry Cash brings about some return to form for the rank outsider Benefit Night and he can run into a place at around 50/1. The jockey of course has already ridden a Festival winner when partnering Brave Inca to victory in the Supreme Novices all those years ago but appears to have fallen a little of fashion with trainers and punters alike in recent years.Very little recommends this horse on form but the jockey booking does catch my eye and there will be worse bets than throwing away a point on this runner, despite his recent form looking more like an alphabet than a formbook with all those letters in it.

4.40 David Nicholson Mares Hurdle

With likely favourite Whiteoak defecting to the Champion Hurdle, I will take the view that last year’s third Chomba Womba is too big a price at 7/1 to see not being in the frame.

She was in the shake up last year when just being run out of things approaching the last and in what looks a less competitive renewal this year, she does just look like the each way bet to nothing here at the prices currently available.

So there we have it, the first day’s racing looked at and the following bets being placed

Kempes 1pt e/w
Calgary Bay(already placed 2pts Win Ante-Post)/Bringbackthebiff(0.5 e/w)/Golden Silver 2x 0.5pt e/w
Star De Mohaison/Nenuphar Collonges 2x 1pt e/w
Katchit/ Ebazyian 2x 1pt e/w
Dix Villez 1pt e/w/ Benefit Night 0.5pt e/w
Chomba Womba 1pt e/w

Total staked:19pts

Best of luck with whatever you bet this week and please let all the horses come home safe and sound and in one piece

 

[ILD]

Thanks for that Ross.

 

[Pesam]

I have a theory about this years Cheltenham and will be laying every favourite to a £10 liability and expect to finish with a profit from the festival.

Layed Cousin Vinny £10 liability to win £3.90 - BET WON
Layed Tatenen £10 Liability to win £2.33 - BET WON
Layed Wichita Lineman £10 liability to win £1.70 - BET LOST (Great race though)
Layed Binocular £10 liability to win £5.80 - BET WON
Layed L'Ami £10 liability to win £4.50 - BET WON
Layed Quevega £10 liability to win £4.00 - BET LOST
Layed Can't Buy Time £10 liability to win £2.55 - BET WON
Layed Mikael Dhaguenet £10 liability to win £3.40 - BET LOST
Layed Cooldine £10 to win £3.50 - BET LOST
Layed Masterminded £10 to win £27 - BET LOST
Layed The Polomoche £10 to win £1.50 - BET WON
Layed Alexander Severus £10 to win £2.40 - BET WON
Layed Rite of Passage £10 to win £3.00 - BET WON
Layed Kia Kaha £10 to win £1.40 - BET WON
Layed Ballydub £10 to win £1.50 - BET WON
Layed Voy Por Ustedes £10 to win £10 - BET WON
Layed Kasbah Bliss £10 to win £8.60 - BET WON
Layed Ping Pong Sivola £10 to win £1.30 - BET WON
Layed Poker De Sivola £10 to win £2.50 - BET WON
Layed Walk On £10 to win £2.40 - BET WON
Layed Dave's Dream £10 to win £2.50 - BET WON
Layed Pride of Dulcote £10 to win £3 - BET WON
Layed Kauto Star £10 to win £5.70 - BET LOST
Layed Juveigneur £10 to win £2 - BET WON
Layed Big Eared Fran £10 to win £2.40 - BET WON
Layed Poquelin £10 to win £2.60

 

[ILD]

Thank god there for Wichita Lineman. Back in business after missing out on paddytheplasterer and losing money on Kempes and Planet of Sound. Had Nenuphor collonges e.w. aswell at 16's.

Have Garde Champetre later and will do Quevega aswel.

Probably staying clear of binocular?? Anyone doing anything?

 

[Whitey85]

[quote author=Pesam link=topic=31859.msg820375#msg820375 date=1236691473]
Layed Binocular £10 liability to win £5.80
[/quote]

Your braver than me.

 

[Pesam]

[quote author=Whitey85 link=topic=31859.msg820453#msg820453 date=1236698106]
[quote author=Pesam link=topic=31859.msg820375#msg820375 date=1236691473]
Layed Binocular £10 liability to win £5.80
[/quote]

Your braver than me.
[/quote]

I don't follow the gg's to closely but I think that the favourites have done rather well over the last few cheltenham meetings and this year will prove different. I seem to remember a lot of favourites messing up at Cheltenham in the 80's, 90's and the early part of this decade and I think it will be one of those years. Not a very well thought out betting system but it's a bit of fun.

 

[Rosco]

I don't lay horses but if I did I would have laid Binocular and cousin Vinny today.

 

[Rosco]

I'm very happy I had done my bets before I read the stuff I posted above !

 

[ILD]

[quote author=Rosco link=topic=31859.msg820494#msg820494 date=1236705888]
I'm very happy I had done my bets before I read the stuff I posted above !
[/quote]

I took Nenuphor Collonges from that info Ross. So not all lost.

 

[Pesam]

[quote author=Pesam link=topic=31859.msg820375#msg820375 date=1236691473]
I have a theory about this years Cheltenham and will be laying every favourite to a £10 liability and expect to finish with a profit from the festival.

Layed Cousin Vinny £10 liability to win £3.90 - BET WON
Layed Tatenen £10 Liability to win £2.33 - BET WON
Layed Wichita Lineman £10 liability to win £1.70 - BET LOST (Great race though)
Layed Binocular £10 liability to win £5.80 - BET WON
Layed L'Ami £10 liability to win £4.50 - BET WON
Layed Quevega £10 liability to win £4.00 - BET LOST
Layed Can't Buy Time £10 liability to win £2.55 - BET WON
Layed Mikael Dhaguenet £10 liability to win £3.40 - BET LOST
Layed Cooldine £10 to win £3.50 - BET LOST
Layed Masterminded £10 to win £27 - BET LOST
Layed The Polomoche £10 to win £1.50 - BET WON
Layed Alexander Severus £10 to win £2.40 - BET WON
Layed Rite of Passage £10 to win £3.00 - BET WON
Layed Kia Kaha £10 to win £1.40 - BET WON
Layed Ballydub £10 to win £1.50 - BET WON
Layed Voy Por Ustedes £10 to win £10 - BET WON
Layed Kasbah Bliss £10 to win £8.60 - BET WON
Layed Ping Pong Sivola £10 to win £1.30 - BET WON
Layed Poker De Sivola £10 to win £2.50 - BET WON

[/quote]


Not one favourite won today which makes up for some big priced favourites winning yesterday. After 3 days the balance is still almost exactly 0, no profit , no loss - so it's all up to tomorrow's results.

 

[Pesam]

[quote author=Pesam link=topic=31859.msg820375#msg820375 date=1236691473]
I have a theory about this years Cheltenham and will be laying every favourite to a £10 liability and expect to finish with a profit from the festival.

Layed Cousin Vinny £10 liability to win £3.90 - BET WON
Layed Tatenen £10 Liability to win £2.33 - BET WON
Layed Wichita Lineman £10 liability to win £1.70 - BET LOST (Great race though)
Layed Binocular £10 liability to win £5.80 - BET WON
Layed L'Ami £10 liability to win £4.50 - BET WON
Layed Quevega £10 liability to win £4.00 - BET LOST
Layed Can't Buy Time £10 liability to win £2.55 - BET WON
Layed Mikael Dhaguenet £10 liability to win £3.40 - BET LOST
Layed Cooldine £10 to win £3.50 - BET LOST
Layed Masterminded £10 to win £27 - BET LOST
Layed The Polomoche £10 to win £1.50 - BET WON
Layed Alexander Severus £10 to win £2.40 - BET WON
Layed Rite of Passage £10 to win £3.00 - BET WON
Layed Kia Kaha £10 to win £1.40 - BET WON
Layed Ballydub £10 to win £1.50 - BET WON
Layed Voy Por Ustedes £10 to win £10 - BET WON
Layed Kasbah Bliss £10 to win £8.60 - BET WON
Layed Ping Pong Sivola £10 to win £1.30 - BET WON
Layed Poker De Sivola £10 to win £2.50 - BET WON
Layed Walk On £10 to win £2.40 - BET WON
Layed Dave's Dream £10 to win £2.50 - BET WON
Layed Pride of Dulcote £10 to win £3 - BET WON
Layed Kauto Star £10 to win £5.70 - BET LOST
Layed Juveigneur £10 to win £2 - BET WON

[/quote]


Amazing few days racing 24 races down 2 to go and I am down 10p!!!

A bit of a waste of time I suppose but at least it gave me an interest in every race.

 

[Pesam]

[quote author=Pesam link=topic=31859.msg822692#msg822692 date=1236960762]
[quote author=Pesam link=topic=31859.msg820375#msg820375 date=1236691473]
I have a theory about this years Cheltenham and will be laying every favourite to a £10 liability and expect to finish with a profit from the festival.

Layed Cousin Vinny £10 liability to win £3.90 - BET WON
Layed Tatenen £10 Liability to win £2.33 - BET WON
Layed Wichita Lineman £10 liability to win £1.70 - BET LOST (Great race though)
Layed Binocular £10 liability to win £5.80 - BET WON
Layed L'Ami £10 liability to win £4.50 - BET WON
Layed Quevega £10 liability to win £4.00 - BET LOST
Layed Can't Buy Time £10 liability to win £2.55 - BET WON
Layed Mikael Dhaguenet £10 liability to win £3.40 - BET LOST
Layed Cooldine £10 to win £3.50 - BET LOST
Layed Masterminded £10 to win £27 - BET LOST
Layed The Polomoche £10 to win £1.50 - BET WON
Layed Alexander Severus £10 to win £2.40 - BET WON
Layed Rite of Passage £10 to win £3.00 - BET WON
Layed Kia Kaha £10 to win £1.40 - BET WON
Layed Ballydub £10 to win £1.50 - BET WON
Layed Voy Por Ustedes £10 to win £10 - BET WON
Layed Kasbah Bliss £10 to win £8.60 - BET WON
Layed Ping Pong Sivola £10 to win £1.30 - BET WON
Layed Poker De Sivola £10 to win £2.50 - BET WON
Layed Walk On £10 to win £2.40 - BET WON
Layed Dave's Dream £10 to win £2.50 - BET WON
Layed Pride of Dulcote £10 to win £3 - BET WON
Layed Kauto Star £10 to win £5.70 - BET LOST
Layed Juveigneur £10 to win £2 - BET WON

[/quote]


Amazing few days racing 24 races down 2 to go and I am down 10p!!!

A bit of a waste of time I suppose but at least it gave me an interest in every race.
[/quote]

£2.30 up with one race to go so if Poquelin doesn't win I will end up £5 up on the festival - Woohoo!