That fucking midfield

[rurikbird]

A lot of fans have been crying out for more creativity from midfield and groaned every time we see something like Henderson-Wijnaldum-Milner on the teamsheet. Keita and Fabinho coming in in the summer raised expectations for a transition towards a creative goal-scoring midfield; instead in the last couple of months in particular Klopp is reverting more and more towards the tried and true, sometimes derisively called "Brexit midfield." Henderson has been chosen in place of Fabinho in several big games despite the latter's excellent run of form; Keita has been completely shut out despite finding his form after a run of starts in early February. What the hell is Klopp thinking? I think I know the answer, but first we need to check out some numbers. If you're not arsed to read the entire analysis, I have a short summary at the end.

=======================
Milner: 2 non-penalty goals in all competitions, 5 assists.
Wijnaldum: 2 goals, 1 assist
Henderson: 0 goals, 0 assists (!)
Fabinho: 1 goal, 2 assists
Keita: 0 goals, 1 assist

This has been our midfield's attacking output this season: 5 non-penalty goals and 9 assists from 5 players in all competitions. It's dire. Let's see, how does it compare with previous seasons under Klopp?

2017-18: 9 non-penalty goals, 22 assists (not counting Ox)
2016-17: 13 goals, 22 assists (not counting Lallana)
2015-16: 11 goals, 24 assists

Before we move further, a couple statistical outliers that need to be highlighted from within these numbers.

• In 17-18, Emre Can accounted for 6 goals out of the 9 our midfield scored in all competitions.
• In 16-17, Wijnaldum bagged 6 goals and 11 assists (I had to do a double-take looking at these numbers – Gini really scored 6 and assisted 11 in one season? Can you imagine it now?).
• In the 2 seasons when he played in midfield, Milner produced a lion's share of the assists: 25 to be exact.

How do these numbers compare with the production of Klopp's midfield at Dortmund?

2014-15: 5 goals 11 assists
2013-14: 15 goals 17 assists
2012-13: 7 goals 13 assists
2011-12 (2nd title): 8 goals 15 assists
2010-11 (1st title): 9 goals 16 assists

Something to note: Dortmund typically played in a system with 2 CMs and Klopp employed heavy rotation in these positions, so usually these numbers are a combination for 4-5 midfielders adding 2 or 3 goals each. The one exception is Nuri Şahin's awesome 2010-11 season when he bagged 8 goals and 13 assists and promptly left for Real Madrid.

Before we try to make sense of this all, we need to also compare how our midfielders have individually performed in terms of attacking production for Klopp compared to other managers:

• Wijnaldum. Other managers (including national team): 85 goals and 33 assists in 315 games (0.37 G+A/game). Klopp: 10 goals and 16 assists in 129 games (0.20 G+A/game).
• Henderson. Other managers: 25 goals and 46 assists in 317 games (0.23 G+A/game). Klopp: 4 goals and 8 assists in 125 games (0.10 G+A/game)
• Fabinho. Other managers: 10 non-penalty goals and 21 assists in 233 games (0.13 G+A/game). Klopp: 1 goals and 2 assists in 31 games (0.10 G+A/game).
• Milner. Other managers: 55 non-penalty goals and 124 assists in 743 games (0.24 G+A/game). Klopp: 5 goals and 34 assists in 158 games (0.25 G+A/game).
• Keita. Other managers: 36 goals and 29 assists in 185 games (0.35G+A/game). Klopp: 0 goals and 1 assist in 27 games (0.04 G+A/game).

So other than Milner who maintained his level of productivity under Klopp, the other 4 midfielders have all had more or less significant drop-offs in attacking contribution when playing in Klopp's teams. Moreover, the trend is definitely towards less production over time – both Hendo and Wijnaldum are showing Lucas-like numbers this season and even Fabinho got his only goal and 2 assists in the first few games he started for the club, when he was still adjusting – it's been barren ever since.

Now, does it actually matter if midfielders are scoring their share of goals? Results show that it doesn't: if you take a look at the numbers above, in Klopp's two title-winning seasons with Dortmund his midfielders have scored similar or less than in the seasons when they didn't win and we're now having statistically our best season in the Premier League era while the midfield numbers on their own seem, like I said, dire. So here is the first important conclusion: Klopp's style doesn't need a lot of attacking contribution from midfielders to win. In fact, it's almost the inverse relationship: his teams have been successful when the midfield was at its most impenetrable, not at its most creative.

I think Klopp has a rather unique view of football and in his style many of the positions are reimagined and should carry different expectations compared to what we're used to. Klopp's full-backs are like other managers' wingers; in Dortmund, converted striker Lukasz Piszczek produced 6 goals and 25 assists from RB position in his first 3 seasons with Klopp and we're now seeing similar record-breaking numbers from Robertson, while Trent is already not far behind and I think he will produce even better numbers than Piszczek in seasons to come. Klopp's strikers, AMs and wing-forwards owe some of the most productive seasons of their career to him (the famous "Klopp effect"), as the likes of Gotze, Reus, Lewandowski, Mane and Salah can testify. What offsets all this and creates a base for the whole construction is the solid midfield which is drilled to deliver the ball in the right areas quickly and consistently and to win it back with such consistency and energy that (as we're now seeing more and more) opponents stop even trying to attack us through the middle altogether. This is good for everyone in the team, but maybe not so good for any midfielders who want to be a little more than just a ball-sucking vacuum. Here's the second important conclusion (supported by the numbers above): the more time Klopp has to work with a midfielder, the more his offensive production declines.

Now, the trend towards a more patient possession-oriented style that we saw earlier in the season was obviously not a fluke. Top-level football is a game of constant adjustment and after blowing everyone away on the counter last season, Klopp very smartly predicted that the league would adjust to us by allowing us possession and closing off any opportunities for quick counters – so he went one step ahead of them and designed a new style of play based around patient build-up and gradually outplaying teams rather then cutting them open like last season. This way of playing might not have particularly suited the likes of Mane and Salah, but results-wise it was a roaring success: we didn't drop a single point against teams outside top 6 until Leicester on the last day of January. As soon as we dropped our first points against a weaker team, Klopp ditched the 4-2-3-1 formation and didn't return to it since. This is also when various modifications of the "Brexit midfield" started appearing with more regularity.

Something else also happened: we started playing more long balls as a team, trying to put Mane and Salah directly through on goal rather than patiently building up as before. Against Spurs at home 15% of our passes were long balls, twice as many as against United at home in December. Against Burnley at home in March we had 11%, compared to 5% against Brighton at home in August. It might seem like an insignificant change, but playing twice as many long balls actually has serious implications, not least that it places more premium on ball-winning midfielders rather than passers, since most long balls lead to turn over in possession. In essence, Klopp has decided that now that the league has started adjusting to our possession-based style, it was time to go back to the same formula as the 2nd half of last season with emphasis on direct counter-attacking playing and high pressing. All of this doesn't mean that the possession-based approach is gone for good; if we are successful in these last months of the season, next season teams will probably start denying us space again and it will be time for another cycle of adjustment.

Before I wrap up, I just want to talk about Keita. He has definitely struggled to adapt in the first few months, as could be expected of any new signing – but he was also unlucky in that as soon as he had a consistent run in the side and looked to have found his place, Klopp decided to change the style back to something where his talents were less useful. I also have an open question whether he will be ultimately happy with being Wijnaldumized, i.e. sacrificing his attacking freedom for the good of the system. Unwillingness to do this is partly why I think Emre Can left – I wrote about this before. If Keita stays, I expect his attacking numbers to drop significantly compared to his days in Germany; it's also possible that he will prove to be Klopp's Pogba and will be better off leaving to play for another manager who allows his midfielders more freedom. In any case, I cannot see a Klopp midfielder ever getting close to double-digit goals or assists unless he is essentially one of the front 4 – and Keita failed his audition in that position in the few games where he started on the LW. Any notion that simply buying a more attack-minded and talented midfielder will radically change Klopp's idea of how he expects his midfielders to play is false; you can sell Keita and Henderson and buy Pogba and Milinkovic-Savic, but Klopp would still ask them primarily to defend, press and cover space and drop them if they don't follow instructions.
==================

As promised, here's a quick summary:

• Klopp's style doesn't require a lot of attacking contribution from his midfielders. His winning formula is solid midfield + super attacking full-backs & world-class goal-scorers/creators up front.
• Midfielders who play for Klopp typically assist and score less than they do for other managers – in contrast to full-backs and forwards who increase their numbers as a result of playing in this system.
• Klopp looks to have mostly switched back to the press-and-counter style since February; this resulted in likes of Keita and Shaqiri being overlooked in favor of defensive-minded players.
• Keita's long-term future at LFC will depend on whether he will be willing to curb his attacking and creative instincts to some extent and become a "system player".

 

[ibromurph]

A good post, and something I was thinking of, although I couldn't say I agree with all of it. Notably, your conclusion on the significant drop off for midfielders in a Klopp team.

I do believe it does have a lot to do with talent. Which we lack.

Gini, Lallana and Keita don't have a good shot on them. Milner for all in his industry lacks a bit of guile. Henderson is now a DM. Fabinho is a DM too.

Keita's best attribute in an attacking sense is a through ball. But to do that you need space to play it, and we don't have that now, with the possession style game we employ.

With such a style you need a midfielder with some guile, running power to get into the box and a shot from range. If we had say a KDB, I think you'd get the work rate as well as the world-class passing/crossing/shooting/finishing. He'd score and assist over 15 goals easily.

The closest player we have to KDB is actually AOC, who I feel would score+assist 15+ goals over the course of a full season. (He got 3G+7A last year in the league).

Ox has got the best shot from range out of all our midfielders, has bit of guile in his passing (Firmino assist vs City; Salah vs Newcastle/W.Ham), can run, cross, dribble and works hard. I think him, Fabinho and Milner would be our best midfield 3 in terms of workrate, solidity, assists and goals in a big game and across a number of games.

 

[Frogfish]

Great analysis as always Rurik. However I'd also point out that I don't believe that Keita, nor indeed Shaq, needs to 'curb their attacking instincts'. In fact Klopp bought them when they were at their most attacking and creative, and I still believe that's why he bought them and hopefully we'll see the best of them next season, which should be the next stage in our progression.

 

[rurikbird]

Great analysis as always Rurik. However I'd also point out that I don't believe that Keita, nor indeed Shaq, needs to 'curb their attacking instincts'. In fact Klopp bought them when they were at their most attacking and creative, and I still believe that's why he bought them and hopefully we'll see the best of them next season, which should be the next stage in our progression.

Not Shaq, of course. But here's the thing about Keita – he failed to show that he can be effective in the AM/CM role that Ox or Milner made their own. In Leipzig he's been playing as the more creative partner in a midfield 2 – and this is where he also looked by far his best in LFC, as a "2nd" midfielder controlling the game and making runs from deep position next to a DM rather than a "3rd" directly responsible for providing goals and assists and interchanging with the strikers. This is the role Wijnaldum is playing in most games and you can see how it affected his attacking stats – he's pretty much one of the best goal-scoring midfielders in the game (consistently scoring at 1 goal per 3 games clip for every team other than Liverpool), but playing in this midfield requires so much graft and running that when he finally gets into an attacking position, he is mentally and physically too tired to finish. Keita won't make this position his own until he can get through the same amount of work game after game – and this will inevitably affect his attacking numbers, in fact it very much has already.

@ibromurph, I'm sure KDB would be a perfect player for Klopp and indeed easily reach double-figures, but he would definitely play in Milner's position, not Wijnaldum's. Basically I think even in 4-3-3 Klopp is thinking in terms of 4 attackers, 6 defenders (or 6 attackers if you include the full-backs). So a "3rd" nominal CM has quite a bit more freedom, this suits Milner or Lallana as they both like to roam and look for space; in the past Coutinho and even Can also played in that position. However the 2 "real CM" positions in Klopp's system have almost no freedom and lots of responsibilities. You can put the most talented midfielder in the world there and he will probably score and assist as rarely as Gini and Henderson do nowadays. That's simply the system and Klopp won't change it for any player.

 

[LeTallecWiz]

Thanks for writing that up @rurikbird

 

[SummerOnions]

Great post as always. I think part of it also is that our midfielders play deeper, so it is harder to score or assist. As you say, is is left to the fullbacks, who are both in great form and suit the way our front 3 play.

However, it is clear in tight moments that we miss midfielders who can score from nowhere, and it could well cost us.

 

[Woland]

I'm not sure one should be allowed to self-Binny, RIP.

 

[SummerOnions]

I'm not sure one should be allowed to self-Binny, RIP.

Rurik has addressed the forum's ADHD head on. Fair play

 

[juniormember]

I understand the crux, but honestly, how many times have Gini, Milner, or any of the other midfielders fucked up shooting or creative opportunities? I don’t care what Gini’s Scoring is like for Holland, he’s seriously missed a shot load of gilt edged opportunities. They’re just not very good at attacking, but they ARE asked to do so.
So with better players (from an attacking instinct POV), we definitely would have better output from our midfielders.
Shaquiri doesn’t count because he’s not an all rounder, thus Klopp can’t count on him. If Ox was fit he’d definitely be played, and he’d definitely do better than the rest in attack. Because he’d be asked to join the attack just like Milner and Gini are asked to do every game.

 

[Esoteric]

Klopp's big on decision making isn't he? At the risk of being all Captain Obvious here, It's not so often that a shot from outside the box is the right decision and speculative shots mostly end in a loss of possession. I imagine Klopp gives everyone the opportunity to justify key decisions in a game and the decision to shoot or not, from a midfielder or full-back seems to be something he's particularly hot on. Our history is full of magnificent midfielders and full-backs with a catalogue of superb strikes from distance but for every wonder strike we've seen, there's a dozen that went high, wide and handsome. I think Klopp stifles his midfield players' instinct to shoot in favour of a more Teutonic efficiency that might detract from the spectacle but ultimately serves the team better.

 

[rurikbird]

Klopp's big on decision making isn't he? At the risk of being all Captain Obvious here, It's not so often that a shot from outside the box is the right decision and speculative shots mostly end in a loss of possession. I imagine Klopp gives everyone the opportunity to justify key decisions in a game and the decision to shoot or not, from a midfielder or full-back seems to be something he's particularly hot on. Our history is full of magnificent midfielders and full-backs with a catalogue of superb strikes from distance but for every wonder strike we've seen, there's a dozen that went high, wide and handsome. I think Klopp stifles his midfield players' instinct to shoot in favour of a more Teutonic efficiency that might detract from the spectacle but ultimately serves the team better.

The counter-argument to that is that ending your attack with a shot on goal at least prevents the sudden loss of possession and a counter. At least that's what many coaches preach.

 

[manwithnoname]

The counter-argument to that is that ending your attack with a shot on goal at least prevents the sudden loss of possession and a counter. At least that's what many coaches preach.

Ending an attack with a shot on goal is also the only way to score a goal, so there's that added bonus too

 

[Khalido]

Do any of our Midfield 3 options possess a decent shot on them 20+ yards out. Gerrard, Alonso, Hamann, Redknapp all had a decent dig on them. Our current lot don't seem to have the technique to shoot with any confidence, all a bunch of side foot benders.

 

[Frogfish]

The counter-argument to that is that ending your attack with a shot on goal at least prevents the sudden loss of possession and a counter. At least that's what many coaches preach.

As opposed to continuing the attack and trying to create an opportunity from the other side / angle ? Something that Klopp pointed out he was frustrated with our lack of switching against Spurs, after preaching at HT that that is what he wanted to see.

 

[Frogfish]

Do any of our Midfield 3 options possess a decent shot on them 20+ yards out. Gerrard, Alonso, Hamann, Redknapp all had a decent dig on them. Our current lot don't seem to have the technique to shoot with any confidence, all a bunch of side foot benders.

Robbo, VvD and TAA all do (accuracy maybe not their strong suit though). Do they count ? Also Hendo, Ox and Grujic (if he ever makes the team) both have powerful shots.

 

[Frogfish]

Ending an attack with a shot on goal is also the only way to score a goal, so there's that added bonus too

Only if on target. Which isn't always our strong point. Especially recently.

 

[SummerOnions]

Do any of our Midfield 3 options possess a decent shot on them 20+ yards out. Gerrard, Alonso, Hamann, Redknapp all had a decent dig on them. Our current lot don't seem to have the technique to shoot with any confidence, all a bunch of side foot benders.

Side foot benders is defo as good as Brexit midfield

 

[manwithnoname]

Only if on target. Which isn't always our strong point. Especially recently.

That's a caveat that needs to be added:

Always end attacks with a shot on goal. But only if on target.

We'll be unstoppable then.

 

[Brizzle]

My biggest challenge with this is that yes - i get Klopp likes a tight midfield that can press and play a good block. However - we are getting that well when Fabs starts and less well when Hendo is shoe-horned into DM. Hendo as DM isn't fit for purpose, but I think we all know that. In a role next to Fabs he can play to more of his strengths - positioning is just not one of those.

 

[manwithnoname]

He bought Keita and tried to buy Fekir because he knew that the midfield needed to have more creativity and dynamism, and give him more options.

Just because Keita's been shit and the Fekir deal didn't happen, doesn't really mean that Klopp always turns free-scoring midfield players into workhorse automatons, or that that is what he wants his midfield to look like and play like.

God Almighty, it wasn't that long ago that some people claimed Klopp didn't play "defensive midfielders", now he's spent £50m on one and turned the others into them aswell?

The likes of Kagawa, Şahin, Coutinho, Chamberlain have all played in Klopp teams in central positions. OK, it is fair to say that he took Gundogan and Şahin and played them much deeper, but he still usually had a creative midfielder ahead of them (Goetze or Kagawa).

I think he does like solidity (like all good managers) so you could expect two deeper CM players, at least one of whom will sit deep and play a holding role, but one will ideally be able to carry the ball forward, create chances and score.

He just doesn't have that player yet (Thanks Naby), so we're super-safe and solid, but lacking a genuine playmaker/ attacking midfield option.

 

[Woland]

Nowadays everybody wanna talk like they got something to say
But nothing comes out when they move their lips
Just a bunch of gibberish
And motherfuckers act like they forgot about Shaq

 

[manwithnoname]

If Shaq wasn't a malformed dwarf and looked a bit more elegant, and less ....squashed as he ran about, I reckon he'd have played more often.

It makes him stand out too much when he has a poor game.

 

[peekay]

• Wijnaldum. Other managers (including national team): 85 goals and 33 assists in 315 games (0.37 G+A/game). Klopp: 10 goals and 16 assists in 129 games (0.20 G+A/game).
• Henderson. Other managers: 25 goals and 46 assists in 317 games (0.23 G+A/game). Klopp: 4 goals and 8 assists in 125 games (0.10 G+A/game)
• Fabinho. Other managers: 10 non-penalty goals and 21 assists in 233 games (0.13 G+A/game). Klopp: 1 goals and 2 assists in 31 games (0.10 G+A/game).
• Milner. Other managers: 55 non-penalty goals and 124 assists in 743 games (0.24 G+A/game). Klopp: 5 goals and 34 assists in 158 games (0.25 G+A/game).
• Keita. Other managers: 36 goals and 29 assists in 185 games (0.35G+A/game). Klopp: 0 goals and 1 assist in 27 games (0.04 G+A/game).

Good post but there could be other explanations. Fabinho (sample size is on the lower side under Klopp to identify long term trends) and Keita (sample size is on the lower side under Klopp to identify long term trends, has struggled to settle in a "better" quality league).

Wijnaldum and Henderson - under other managers have predominantly played in poorer quality teams against lesser quality opposition (especially in national teams). If Liverpool regularly played Estonia, Albania etc., I am sure Wijnaldum's and Henderson's numbers will improve under Klopp.

It is very difficult to make this assessment as you need to control for the quality of your team mates, quality of your opposition, etc.

 

[Brizzle]

Fair - i think you Klopp'ss ultimate vision would be 2 DMs (one a capable DM that is great on the ball a la Gini versus one who is a more natural DM) with an attacking CM in the middle to complement attacking full backs and a front three. We've been shoe horning a CM into that attacking role due to not having a capable one fit and its taken a while to get Fabinho into the side and complement Gini or Hendo in that other aspect.

 

[manwithnoname]

Good post but there could be other explanations. Fabinho (sample size is on the lower side under Klopp to identify long term trends) and Keita (sample size is on the lower side under Klopp to identify long term trends, has struggled to settle in a "better" quality league).

Wijnaldum and Henderson - under other managers have predominantly played in poorer quality teams against lesser quality opposition (especially in national teams). If Liverpool regularly played Estonia, Albania etc., I am sure Wijnaldum's and Henderson's numbers will improve under Klopp.

It is very difficult to make this assessment as you need to control for the quality of your team mates, quality of your opposition, etc.

I think Wijnaldum is deffo one that has obviously been told to play in a different position and in a different way, and has stated as much himself

"He (Klopp) said that I have to be more involved in games, and that there was too many times that I was not involved and that it was easier to play a bad game,

It’s more difficult than it looks because sometimes on the pitch I also want to run forward and to help the attack as well and even score a goal, but when you’re playing in that position it’s not always possible so you have to keep the balance between the attackers and the two No.8s and the defence.

That makes it hard because I am from origin a player who wants to run forward and try to go with the attacks, but now you have to look more around yourself, look if the players are in the right position"

He is certainly scoring less goals, but that's because he is certainly playing in a different role.

His season in the Premiership with Newcastle saw him play in a few different positions, including wide, deep and also attacking, and he scored 11 goals, but it's worth noting that 4 of them were in the same match and he went for loooooong periods in which Newcastle fans claim he did exactly fuck all, so ensuring he is more involved by changing his position and role was a masterstroke really.

That doesn't ameliorate the occasionally horrible shooting (or lack of shooting), but maybe it's a habit/ confidence issue with that part of his game now that he gets to do it less than before.

 

[RedStar]

I think one of the problems for Keita and to an extent Shaq this season is actually how well we have done. We have been in an incredibly tight battle since pretty much Nov. Its a war of attrition between us and City, this is the highest quality title race in history, there is no margin of error. We simply havent had games to experiment with formations or personnel changes the risk is too high. If we were playing like last season I think they would both have had alot more game time.

 

[doctor_mac]

I think one of the problems for Keita and to an extent Shaq this season is actually how well we have done. We have been in an incredibly tight battle since pretty much Nov. Its a war of attrition between us and City, this is the highest quality title race in history, there is no margin of error. We simply havent had games to experiment with formations or personnel changes the risk is too high. If we were playing like last season I think they would both have had alot more game time.

Agree. If we had a few more cup games then we undoubtedly would have seen more of these lads too, but the pressure in the league has been relentless.