Agree 12-14 seems to be 'par'
The Title Race 25/26
- Thread starter Dreambeliever
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To reach 90 points we need 2.37 points per game.
If we were to get 14 out of the next 6 we would be 29 from 11, which is 2.6 points per game. Over the season that’s 100 points.
So what you’re saying is we’ve basically won the league if we do get 14 points?
If we were to get 14 out of the next 6 we would be 29 from 11, which is 2.6 points per game. Over the season that’s 100 points.
So what you’re saying is we’ve basically won the league if we do get 14 points?
Even though we somehow keep winning, I find it impossible to call our games simply because I don't feel like I can trust them just yet. That's a really tough set of fixtures.
I wouldn't write City off just yet either. If Haaland is fit and scoring again, they've got a shot.
I wouldn't write City off just yet either. If Haaland is fit and scoring again, they've got a shot.
Yep, 14 points and its over, anything less and we've fucked it and didn't deserve it anyway.
Technically correct, but they're operating in an open market. A 15% difference is huge and you'd expect tons of money going on this very quickly, forcing bookies to adjust their books. They can't just pick a price at random. Bookies odds (sans margins), especially the average, are usually a pretty good proxy for reality. If they're not they get punished.
We are evens, and Arsenal are 2/1, which is close to us being 60% chance of winning and Arsenal being late 20s% with some for the rest of the league.
You're assuming that they repeat last year's performances vs Top 6 ... and they are already way behind ! They are 2 points down to us (2 x 2-2 draws last season) and another 2 points worse off by drawing with City (won at home and drew away). Though they have won at OT where they drew last season (so +2 pts).
BTW they had a W5 D5 L0 record vs Top 6 teams (which includes a now rejuvenated Spurs). We had W6 D3 L1 so actually 1 more point than them last year.
You can still get prices on sides that aren’t us, Arsenal and City which will distort the prices.
We are twice as likely to win as Arsenal, city under 10% with 4-5% chance for rest of the league. 60% feels about right to me.
You're right, I'm going to put some money on us now.
I don't bet but I always thought bookies' odds were just a function of where the money goes? I thought the prices adjusted to maintain as constant a margin as possible across all possible outcomes? So they correlate with reality because bets correlate with reality on average, not because they're actually predicting reality accurately?
Is that not the case?
Is that not the case?
Correct. The bookies will alter their odds according to where the money's going which may or may not correlate to the real percentage chance of something happening (usually pretty close though unless there is a run on one of the teams/horses/whatever, for example in any major horse race if a horse takes the public's fancy because of its name - say it was named 'Fuck U Trump' then it's odds would drop., even though it's a nag with no chance of winning). Which is why OPTA is a better indicator than booking odds
Yeah it doesn't really seem that surprising to me that there'd be some gap between Opta and the market. There's way too much noise for the prices to adjust exactly.
That's a lovely run of 8 games. Get through the next 6 with 14 pts and we'll be in fine fettle.
Even 12 pts from the next 18 is fine. Well still be top
I’ve been bored today and trolling the fuck out of my city friend, who is, to be fair either completely demented or also trying to troll back - his latest one was, “Is it slowly dawning on you that Liverpool aren’t winning the league?”… to which I replied along the lines, “yes, winning your first 5 games as opposed to getting beat a lot like City is definitely making me fear the season ahead”.
Anyway… in my boredom, I started crunching some basic numbers around City.
We all know their best season was the year they got to 100 points - never been done before probably never be done again and they were a great team.
That season the only lost 2 and drew 4, winning - they’ve already lost 2 and drawn 1 after 5 games.
Should City somehow produce the sort of form that equals the best ever seasons form every seen, for the rest of the season - then they can get to 94 points - well good enough to win a league.
The average winning total for a league is 89 points - so, if City were to suddenly morph into a title winning side for their remaining 33 games, then they’d get to 84 points.
This is funny, because this is the points total the “worst, luckiest and most undeserving team ever to win the premier league”, actually wine it with last season.
So again… by being an average premier league title winning team from hence forth, they could scrap over the line.
To get into the 80-90 point band, where titles can be and generally are won, City are looking at winning 24-25 of their remaining 33 games as a minimum, with a few draws also needed - that’s not a lot of wiggle room.
If we, however, after our start, maintain the sort of form we saw last season across the entire season, hitting 84 points, even given our early holiday - then we’re due to hit around 87-88 points - which would still only be average form across an entire season for a winning team.
So… City need to be exceptional and significantly better than last season or this season to be in with a chance of winning it.
We need to be “as good” as last season from here on and if we are, we’re in a great position after that start - but we need to keep momentum.
So… I don’t think City have anywhere near the quality and depth in their current squad to put the run together they’d need - they’re another Haaland injury away from struggling to reach CL positions in my book.
Us, on the other hand, I’d say are better and have more depth than last year - so while that doesn’t necessarily translate into results, it certainly raises the expectations that it does.
Anyway… in my boredom, I started crunching some basic numbers around City.
We all know their best season was the year they got to 100 points - never been done before probably never be done again and they were a great team.
That season the only lost 2 and drew 4, winning - they’ve already lost 2 and drawn 1 after 5 games.
Should City somehow produce the sort of form that equals the best ever seasons form every seen, for the rest of the season - then they can get to 94 points - well good enough to win a league.
The average winning total for a league is 89 points - so, if City were to suddenly morph into a title winning side for their remaining 33 games, then they’d get to 84 points.
This is funny, because this is the points total the “worst, luckiest and most undeserving team ever to win the premier league”, actually wine it with last season.
So again… by being an average premier league title winning team from hence forth, they could scrap over the line.
To get into the 80-90 point band, where titles can be and generally are won, City are looking at winning 24-25 of their remaining 33 games as a minimum, with a few draws also needed - that’s not a lot of wiggle room.
If we, however, after our start, maintain the sort of form we saw last season across the entire season, hitting 84 points, even given our early holiday - then we’re due to hit around 87-88 points - which would still only be average form across an entire season for a winning team.
So… City need to be exceptional and significantly better than last season or this season to be in with a chance of winning it.
We need to be “as good” as last season from here on and if we are, we’re in a great position after that start - but we need to keep momentum.
So… I don’t think City have anywhere near the quality and depth in their current squad to put the run together they’d need - they’re another Haaland injury away from struggling to reach CL positions in my book.
Us, on the other hand, I’d say are better and have more depth than last year - so while that doesn’t necessarily translate into results, it certainly raises the expectations that it does.
City are 8 points behind having had easier fixtures. It would be a pretty spectacular turnaround to finish above us, even at this early stage.
Nailed it.
Brentford are the only decent side we play.
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