UK General Election 24/25

[dee]

Currently our debt is ~100% of GDP (I think it's actually a little less right now, maybe ~90%) so that's like having a 1x mortgage - hardly 'crippling' and to put into perspective, I think the worst ever national debt on record was post-WW2 when it went to around 250% of GDP.

Our debt has tripled to that. Prior to the financial crisis of 2008 our debt was around 35% of GDP and considered a concern compared to other (at the time) EU countries

In the last year my mortgage has doubled and is now approaching 40% of nett income although nowhere near as an alarming as expressed as a multiplier of gross salary. Mortgages/salary is a younger person index generally as we generally earn more in later life. Also I'm a higher earner so I loose nearly 50% of my gross income to tax.

We are going to disagree on this. I'm conservative (not the party) with regard to debt of any kind. It's more an age thing

 

[dee]

Do we start another threat for right wing violence in UK.
Hartlepool latest city to have a bunch of randoms turn up to chuck bricks at mosques.

On no not those bloody French monkeys again!

 

[jexykrodic]

Ending universal winter fuel payments is perfectly reasonable. Like any state support, it should only go to those who need it.

However, the terms of this reduction are pretty narrow, especially when you consider how volatile energy prices can be. I suspect there will be some change on this when the winter rolls around.

I wonder how much it will cost to means test this?

 

[Richey]

I wonder how much it will cost to means test this?

No idea, but clearly too much! The government will see it as an easy win and will want to maximise their take.

If there is an increase in energy prices then they won't scrap this or alter it, but they would give a smaller payment to more people, such as perhaps people in the lower Council Tax bands or just through Councils in another way (though not so sure they'll do the latter)

 

[dee]

Ending universal winter fuel payments is perfectly reasonable. Like any state support, it should only go to those who need it.


I wonder how much it will cost to means test this?

I understood it to be an extension of Pension Credit eg if you get PC you will get the winter payment

 

[Richey]

I understood it to be an extension of Pension Credit eg if you get PC you will get the winter payment

Correct, yes.

 

[jexykrodic]

Don't pensioners incomes fluctuate necessitating claims?

I don't think pension credit is automatic is it?

 

[MomoWASright]

The state pension is still triple locked so they do get the benefit of having it increased each year even if inflation goes mental. Pension Credit has to be claimed. It is estimated there is £2.2 bn of unclaimed Pension Credit.

 

[jexykrodic]

No doubt this will increase the volume of claims and the administration that follows. Loss of several hundred pounds for low income pensioners is significant.

 

[dee]

Don't pensioners incomes fluctuate necessitating claims?

I don't think pension credit is automatic is it?

Nope. One of the most under claimed benefits on the book pre-pandemic and probably still the case.

It may trigger a few to claim but there are two big drivers to claiming (1) "it's too complicated for me at my age" and (2) pride

 

[jexykrodic]

Nope. One of the most under claimed benefits on the book pre-pandemic and probably still the case.

It may trigger a few to claim but there are two big drivers to claiming (1) "it's too complicated for me at my age" and (2) pride

If I was a cynic I'd say that's what's expected. Playing on the vulnerabilities of an uninformed group who won't complain is an easy win. Some collateral damage is acceptable in the round assuming you disregard your primary duty is to improve the lot of your fellow citizens.

 

[singlerider]

Our debt has tripled to that. Prior to the financial crisis of 2008 our debt was around 35% of GDP and considered a concern compared to other (at the time) EU countries

In the last year my mortgage has doubled and is now approaching 40% of nett income although nowhere near as an alarming as expressed as a multiplier of gross salary. Mortgages/salary is a younger person index generally as we generally earn more in later life. Also I'm a higher earner so I loose nearly 50% of my gross income to tax.

We are going to disagree on this. I'm conservative (not the party) with regard to debt of any kind. It's more an age thing

You're going to make me do it, aren't you?

I didn't want it to have to come to this, but look what you made me do...

Prior to the GFC, the UK's debt-to-GDP ratio was lower than any of the G7, so you're gonna have to substantiate this claim that our debt was a concern compared to other European countries, because I call bullshit.

You might be small c conservative when it comes to debt, but that's just a preference thing and no way to run a country.

I'm sure everyone got bored of me banging this drum 15 years ago or whenever it was (I know I did) but I guess it's been a while so it bears repeating.

Public debt is nowhere near as big an issue as people make it out to be.

Private debt is a far bigger issue than people acknowledge.

If the government enacts policies that enrich the many, not the few, then the economy will be far healthier and more sustainable. Money trickles up, not down

 

[dee]

You're going to make me do it, aren't you?

I didn't want it to have to come to this, but look what you made me do...

Prior to the GFC, the UK's debt-to-GDP ratio was lower than any of the G7, so you're gonna have to substantiate this claim that our debt was a concern compared to other European countries, because I call bullshit.

You might be small c conservative when it comes to debt, but that's just a preference thing and no way to run a country.

I'm sure everyone got bored of me banging this drum 15 years ago or whenever it was (I know I did) but I guess it's been a while so it bears repeating.

Public debt is nowhere near as big an issue as people make it out to be.

Private debt is a far bigger issue than people acknowledge.

If the government enacts policies that enrich the many, not the few, then the economy will be far healthier and more sustainable. Money trickles up, not down

Love a graph I do

 

[dantes]

Misinformation?

Hahaha no that's not the answer, but it looks like the best answer you're going to come up with given the states of your brains, perhaps it can be "your truth" or whatever you call whatever it is.

 

[Modo]

 

[My_Blood_Bleeds_Red]

The largest economies in the world have far higher debt / gdp ratios than us. Not sure it's as big a deal as is made out.

Depends really on how you look at it.

US can afford to manage debt because of its large global reserve currency which means there's always constant demand for dollars globally, although that may change one day, because of the rapid dedollarisation and more countries signing up to BRICS.

UK - GBP isn't in popular demand as the dollar for sure, globally so you guys face a bigger risk.

Short-term, nobody really cares. Since when do politicians really care except line their own pockets ? Nah, they won't care.
Bank of England cares though. How they adjust the interest rates will be crucial.

Mid-term - country should be safe because UK have strong government bonds with strong investors confidence. Credit ratings also pretty safe, although the long-term effect of Brexit is still unfolding.

Long-term - your kids, next-gen will be screwed if debt goes higher. Rising interest rates = higher cost of servicing debt, putting additional strain on public finances. Higher chance of recession, because gov will be pressured to increase spending to support the economy, which will mean they'll tax the sh*t out of its people, or find that money somewhere, somehow, and it'll certainly be from you lot. Country will be forced to print more money to pay off its debt, which reduces your purchasing power, esp. your kids' generation. Also, by now, the gov will have made new borrowings years ago to repay off its loans at a much higher interest rate, hence piling up more debt and higher servicing costs. One could argue the US is where is it today, because their greed has surpassed their debt a long time ago - more borrowing and more delayed repayments.

So the solution ? Buy bitcoin.

Trump said a Bitcoin Reserve will wipe out its entire $35 trillion debt. LOL. It's funny cos it may just be true, at the rate the world's sinking into madness.

 

[singlerider]

Long term we won't have to worry about the kids getting screwed by the economy, they'll be too distracted by ecological collapse to worry about that...

 

[My_Blood_Bleeds_Red]

And that too....although i reckon the apocalypse will prolly kill them first, or they'll kill each other end-of-the-world style.

 

[My_Blood_Bleeds_Red]

Today Japan gave us a crash course of what debt can do to a nation and even global markets.

 

[Athens]

Fucking stock markets. Imagine basing your economy on a bookie.

 

[MomoWASright]

Rachel Reeves has refused to rule out a capital gains tax raid on savers and investors a week after she warned of “difficult decisions” on tax in October’s Budget.

The Chancellor said the tax burden “has got too high” under the Conservatives, but left the door open to increasing the charge levied on capital gains.

Speaking in an interview with Bloomberg TV, she said: “I want to bring that tax burden down because I want to make Britain the best place to start and grow a business and I want working people to keep more of their own money in their pockets.”

Asked about capital gains tax, she declined to rule out an increase to the charge on investors.

“It is always important when you’re deciding tax policy to strike the right balance,” she said, during a trip to the US designed to drum up more interest in the UK among international investors.

Capital gains tax is expected to raise around £15bn this year, rising to £23.5bn in five years’ time, according to forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility.

The tax rate typically ranges from 10pc to 28pc depending on the type of investment made and the income tax bracket of the person making the capital gain.

There has been speculation that Ms Reeves could increase the rate to match income tax, meaning higher earners would pay 40pc or 45pc. The Treasury has refused to comment on any possible plans.

The Government has promised not to raise the headline rates of income tax, national insurance or VAT, nor to raise taxes on “working people”. It has also said it would maintain the triple lock for the state pension

To me this seems sensible, but I’d increase the Annual Exempt Amount too.

 

[dee]

nor to raise taxes on “working people”.

All the parties use this phrase. Actually, they generally make it worse by saying "hard working families".

So if your marginal tax does increase that suggests you aren't hard working or a family.

In this instance how do you increase your revenue take without impact "working families"?

 

[MomoWASright]

By taxing unearned income more

 

[Richey]

All the parties use this phrase. Actually, they generally make it worse by saying "hard working families".

So if your marginal tax does increase that suggests you aren't hard working or a family.

In this instance how do you increase your revenue take without impact "working families"?

It's a term that could bite them, but not massively.

I mean, I very strongly suspect that everyone will be paying more in tax by this time next year, but it's just a case of how much.

For example, I am guessing fuel duty will be up at some point and I am certain council tax will continue to rise every year. Both taxes on working families.

 

[MomoWASright]

Is the general consensus on here that people want low taxes but high services?

 

[Richey]

Is the general consensus on here that people want low taxes but high services?

The problem is I guess is that the public has grown used to the idea that both tax rises AND cuts to public services are to be feared, and so no government will commit to either.

That fairly obviously doesn't work.

To make matters worse I guess, we do already have tax rises each year and we are told that public services are terrible, which make tax rises even less popular.

The principle of 'we need this amount to pay for all of this, and therefore we need to raise this amount' is clearly a fair one, but it would need a big change and governments don't do that, they tinker around the edges and try to convince people that they are always better off. And that's all parties, all governments, by the way.

 

[dee]

As I've stated elsewhere I'd just love it if by some miracle an amazingly intelligent person could devise a radically different form of taxation that taxed people that can afford to be taxed once. Those that can't afford to be taxed aren't and are supported as required

Instead of tens of individual taxes, all with their rule sets and exclusions plus shedloads of means tested benefits all using different criteria.

So much bureaucracy

If the tories had worked out a way to combine income tax and NI instead of trying to tax cut it away with money we don't have I'd have applauded them.

 

[Brizzle]

Is the general consensus on here that people want low taxes but high services?

My sense is that people are feeling the lack of investment in local services e.g. their local roads, parks, green areas, emergency services etc. and are watching huge swathes of the government budget being wasted.

In parallel there is possibly a feeling that services that should or could be government owned are the ones that are killing the pockets e.g. energy bills, cost of trains etc.

The answer to get there probably does mean higher taxes (OR better ability to collect all intended/owed taxes and close loop holes) in order to get into a position to make such improvements.

One this that is for certain - Labour have inherited an absolute abomination and need to be given patience in order to set things back on a good track. The problem is their changes or the journey to get there may end up hurting their voters more than their opposition's voters.

 

[dee]

The problem is their changes or the journey to get there may end up hurting their voters more than their opposition's voters.

In an ideal world that shouldn't be a consideration. They were elected by a huge landslide to sort the shit out. They have the mandate, they need to get on it.

Whilst I'm not a fan, I'm behind the mandate of the British people.

 

[got red on me]

The foresight to be colour-coordinated in this moment...


View: https://youtu.be/nvTtr5JfoMo?si=j4ZDKb4u7WY3IWzA