US Election thread - Kamala v Donald
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Resigned to Trump winning. He always outperforms the pre-election polls. He is running the exact same playbook that he always does - which fosters a divisive electorate and one that is marginally in his favor.
Personally there could be some good things for me if Trump wins if he fulfills his poll promise - but it's hard to judge what other mess this lunatic will create.
Personally there could be some good things for me if Trump wins if he fulfills his poll promise - but it's hard to judge what other mess this lunatic will create.
Are you a bricky on the US Mexico border?
Yeah I think Trump will take this. Dems fumbled this quite badly. They could & should have been elevating Kamala's role as VP for the past year, and led with her as candidate (or their actual preferred candidate).
They only ditched Biden as it was too hard to prove that he was in cognitive decline, and I read an interesting point that if they switched to anyone but Harris, they would have to refund all donations. However because Harris was on the ticket, they wouldn't need to do that for her.
She's failed to show who 'she' is - and doesn't answer questions around what she would do differently to Biden. It should be a walk in the park, but they are up against it.
Trump's faked assassination attempt and side deal with Elon probably didn't help either, although much of that was to do with the politics in California.
They only ditched Biden as it was too hard to prove that he was in cognitive decline, and I read an interesting point that if they switched to anyone but Harris, they would have to refund all donations. However because Harris was on the ticket, they wouldn't need to do that for her.
She's failed to show who 'she' is - and doesn't answer questions around what she would do differently to Biden. It should be a walk in the park, but they are up against it.
Trump's faked assassination attempt and side deal with Elon probably didn't help either, although much of that was to do with the politics in California.
Quote from US friends of mine who will (without much enthusiasm) vote for Kamala: "If you put a gun to my head and told me to predict the outcome in the next five seconds or else, I'd say Kamala will take it by a narrow margin. Otherwise I'd tell you it's too close to call either way."
I don't have much faith in the polls as they failed to predict the level of support for Trump in the last two elections.
There is a chance that they are doing that again but there is also a chance that they have tried to overcompensate for their previous errors.
If it was a week ago I would have said Trump but there does seem to have been a momentum shift recently in favour of Harris.
Plus early voter patterns indicate that women are outvoting men, sometimes by as much as ten percent, and as they tend to favour Harris, that could tip it her way if the trend continues through polling day.
Trump doesn't seem as energised or as energising as he was in the two previous presidential campaigns either.
So right now my gut says Harris but I wouldn't be putting a chunk of money on it,
There is a chance that they are doing that again but there is also a chance that they have tried to overcompensate for their previous errors.
If it was a week ago I would have said Trump but there does seem to have been a momentum shift recently in favour of Harris.
Plus early voter patterns indicate that women are outvoting men, sometimes by as much as ten percent, and as they tend to favour Harris, that could tip it her way if the trend continues through polling day.
Trump doesn't seem as energised or as energising as he was in the two previous presidential campaigns either.
So right now my gut says Harris but I wouldn't be putting a chunk of money on it,
A few years back, Kamala was all over the internet as being cool because she wore baby blue Tims.
Realised there wasn't anything about policy or whatver it's a popularity contest.
AOC doing live streams while putting together her flat pack or her nightly skin care routine also.
Mentioned this to a work colleague and was dismissed as such a dad thing to think.
Realised there wasn't anything about policy or whatver it's a popularity contest.
AOC doing live streams while putting together her flat pack or her nightly skin care routine also.
Mentioned this to a work colleague and was dismissed as such a dad thing to think.
I'm so firmly in the dad category I had to google baby blue tims.
They look fucking shite.
Hillary's loss had more to do with her as an individual than with her as a woman IMO. She had gone up against the first serious black candidate for the previous Democratic nomination and, for all Obama's individual excellence, that was at least as high a hurdle for him to cross. If she didn't win through that time, my guess is she was probably never going to.
At least this means that that young father didn't die as it wasn't real ...
It's a coin flip as to who wins - US is screwed either way imo.
Biden is likely being told to be quiet and if he opens his mouth, he may help Trump...
I've followed this from a distance with little enthusiasm, but I would fearfully guess Trump will take it. A lot of people will sing and shout about voting for Dems, but there's always a hidden number of people who quietly lean to the right, and there will plenty of people will be embarrassed by MAGA, but will generally believe in small state, conservatism. Add on that to surviving an assassination attempt, complete with the photo so good it could have been a film-shoot, and he's up against a black, female, and the Dems botched their campaign by backing Biden for far too long. Having to forcibly remove your nomination because the success criteria for a successful speech was him not shitting himself demonstrates a gross lack of basic competence when the stakes are so high. If the Dems lose then there needs to be a lot of introspection into this campaign.
I hope I'm wrong - I'm not arsed about American domestic policy but I fear for Trump on the international stage, especially with his ties to Putin, and what they could mean. If US removes support then it could force Ukraine to accept they have lost territory, and Russia will only be encouraged to pursue further advances in the region.
I hope I'm wrong - I'm not arsed about American domestic policy but I fear for Trump on the international stage, especially with his ties to Putin, and what they could mean. If US removes support then it could force Ukraine to accept they have lost territory, and Russia will only be encouraged to pursue further advances in the region.
I understand why the Dems picked Kamala in the end but it feels like they've not learned from the Hilary election - people on both sides just don't seem to really like her. Perhaps if Biden had bowed out earlier, they'd have had time to pick someone else... or was it always gonna be her?
I think the bigger concern about Trump is not Putin - it's his lack of understanding of the European-American alliance, or dare I say, the fact he places little importance on a strong Europe.
I also don't think Russia poses much of a threat to Europe - but Russia, with China, Iran, North Korea etc definitely does ...
He's not winning. He's lost 3 of the 4 elections where he's been on the ballot. I'd be shocked if he won. They are oversampling him in polls, and there's a 2022 Roe v Wade factor that is going to shoe. She's doing great in WI, MI and PA voter demo data. If that holds she's there.
Plus she has a good shot in NC, GA and AZ. She will take one of those. Honestly, I'm thinking it will be a Kamala blowout.
He’s added the golf swing to his dance moves. Deffo winning.
View: https://x.com/ClayTravis/status/1853227363812643037
View: https://x.com/ClayTravis/status/1853227363812643037
Trump is slight favourite, so it’s still 50/50.
We'll get an idea late Wednesday AM, confirmations Wednesday or Thursday, but the concern is the orange fellas people at the county level will gum up the count if it's not going their way in courtcases etc.
This guy is pretty good on data turnout details. Generic at the start, more specific as it goes on,
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhXfjDmPB6s
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhXfjDmPB6s
Is there a TL;DR version. His voice is so boring
Kind of. Essentially he saying if you were a republican, you’re happy because you’re early turnout is a really good compared to previous years. This means you don’t have to put as much work in to get out the vote on the day. However, there is an argument that Republicans are cannibalizing their election day vote by getting everyone out to vote early.
Democrats are not voting early, because their early vote last time was a pandemic related thing. Republicans have been emphasizing it more. So you could argue Republicans have more votes in the bag, potentially.
So far, Democrats are successful at getting out younger voters, people of color and there is a gender gap. Additionally, there is a silver surge. They call it and all these things are apparently good for Democrats.
Then there is the problem of Republican generated polls that are flooding the zone with imperfect polling, creating the impression of Trump momentum. It’s felt that internal polling is showing it’s not looking good for him and that’s why they’re flooding the zone with these polls to try and create this fake sense of momentum. You’ve got to realize that polling is now just another tool or weapon in elections, there are some independent groups out there.
For me…
It’s all tea leaves but I would rather be a Democrat than a Republican at this point.
Democrats are not voting early, because their early vote last time was a pandemic related thing. Republicans have been emphasizing it more. So you could argue Republicans have more votes in the bag, potentially.
So far, Democrats are successful at getting out younger voters, people of color and there is a gender gap. Additionally, there is a silver surge. They call it and all these things are apparently good for Democrats.
Then there is the problem of Republican generated polls that are flooding the zone with imperfect polling, creating the impression of Trump momentum. It’s felt that internal polling is showing it’s not looking good for him and that’s why they’re flooding the zone with these polls to try and create this fake sense of momentum. You’ve got to realize that polling is now just another tool or weapon in elections, there are some independent groups out there.
For me…
It’s all tea leaves but I would rather be a Democrat than a Republican at this point.
Trump wins… he’s going on a vengeance spree.
Trump loses - he’ll claim it’s another steal and the riots will be bigger than last time.
One thing you can be sure of, whatever the result - Trump will be telling everyone he won.
Wouldn’t he surprised if it’s as close as Bush v Gore and comes down to a handful of votes in one state.
So you think Harris will win?
Against another politician, I think there would be more focus on policies. Against trump there's zero point in focusing on policy.
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