WWIII Return of the Ruskie

[redsar]

NATO expansion towards east is a problem and only adds fuel to the fire. "NATO overplayed its hand" is an understatement, it's a long-term strategy. Also, this has nothing to do with propelling democracy to ex-Soviet (or other) states but with geostrategic games between two nuclear powers. USA & NATO have no problem with authoritarian regimes provided they are willing to fully cooperate with them. There are dozens of examples from the past and today. That's why I'm always suspicious of the so called orange revolutions, certain foreign funding NGOs etc. There were attempts in Belarus and Kazakhstan lately as well. Is it a coincidence, I don't think so. If, one day, Ukraine joins NATO, it would only be a matter of time before NATO tactical weapons are installed near Ukraine-Russian border. That means the missiles could hypothetically reach Moscow within 5-10 minutes. What would you do if you were in Putin's position... His support for Venezuela regime is a moot example and nowhere near the problem of the same magnitude for Americans as the Ukraine is for Russia. If it was closer to the US border (like Mexico for example) than fair enough. And we all know how USA reacted to Cuban missile crisis.

 

[rurikbird]

Well, I tried to engage in good faith, but at this point you're spewing pure undistilled Russian propaganda. You obviously don't know jack shit about so-called "orange revolutions" and what's happening inside Russia right now and the way all this stuff seems to be wrapped up into this tightly-wound mess of talking points is a tell-tale sign of a victim of successful propaganda ops; research shows that once this stuff has been wound together in your brain, it's a very long process to unwind and certainly impossible via an online discussion. No hard feelings, but I will not engage with you on this topic further.

For anyone else reading, I just want to say that while there can certainly be rational arguments and disagreements about the wisdom of NATO accepting one or another country into the alliance in the past, at this point this is already way past the point of being relevant. Ukraine was attacked in 2014 while being a neutral state* that did not at the time have any active discussions about NATO membership. Putin's game is much larger and more ambitious than a simple regional security issue; they are using the pretext of being "scared of NATO countries" for a larger showdown with the West as a way to leverage their outsize (relative to the economy) military strength and reputation for being willing to escalate to extract concessions, possibly expand territory and help stabilize Putin's regime internally. These goals have no geographic limits or expiration dates, so any concessions now will only lead to the next round of escalation in the near future.

_____
*Under a Ukrainian law passed in 2010 that was still in effect during the invasion, Ukraine was FORBIDDEN to join any military alliance, whether Russian or Western. True, some pro-Western parties campaigned on overturning this “non-alignment law” (as they correctly predicted NATO membership was necessary as a deterrent to Russian aggression), but at the time as far as I remember most Ukrainians were happy with the neutral status and there was no plausible way that law was going to get overturned - until the war happened and the public opinion shifted decisively in pro-NATO direction. So this was actually Putin’s own doing.

 

[dantes]

It was about time the president of the united states stepped in to sort all these bickering fools out. There is no way Russia will dare to do anything now. Panic over.

 

[dantes]

President Biden has plenty of experience dealing with minor incursions.

 

[rubans]

Pity he didn’t follow Trump’s lead over Russia.

 

[redsar]

Well, I tried to engage in good faith, but at this point you're spewing pure undistilled Russian propaganda. You obviously don't know jack shit about so-called "orange revolutions" and what's happening inside Russia right now and the way all this stuff seems to be wrapped up into this tightly-wound mess of talking points is a tell-tale sign of a victim of successful propaganda ops; research shows that once this stuff has been wound together in your brain, it's a very long process to unwind and certainly impossible via an online discussion. No hard feelings, but I will not engage with you on this topic further.

Yeah, I'm a Russian propagandist while you offer balanced, fact-based opinion, from the comfort of your New York apartment.

 

[rurikbird]

Yeah, I'm a Russian propagandist while you offer balanced, fact-based opinion, from the comfort of your New York apartment.

As a Russian-speaking Ukrainian who follows this stuff very closely (and has relatives directly in the line of fire), I think I have some right to claim knowledge of the matter. Despite that, I don’t take a genuine difference in opinion personally and neither should you. Good day, mate.

 

[The Nomad]

Both the US and UK are leaving essential staff only at embassy's. All family members are being 'withdrawn'.. (not evacuated)

They know...

 

[Athens]

As a Russian-speaking Ukrainian who follows this stuff very closely (and has relatives directly in the line of fire), I think I have some right to claim knowledge of the matter. Despite that, I don’t take a genuine difference in opinion personally and neither should you. Good day, mate.

You're just a shill for the big western military industry.

 

[Rosco]

This seems like a good way of putting Russian weapons in an awkward spot for Europe

"Civilian aircraft will be routed away from an area out at sea off the Cork coast when Russia is due to conduct the navy artillery exercise there in early February, the Irish Aviation authority has said.

The IAA says it has been made aware that the Russian military drill will take place in international waters - but within Ireland's exclusive economic zone - 240 kilometres off the southwest coast.

In a statement, the IAA said the safety of Irish airspace will not be compromised by the Russian navy artillery test."

 

[The Nomad]

Are there any undersea cables near there?

 

[Rosco]

It would seem to be close enough to plenty of cables going to and from Britain

 

[Rosco]

And it looks like they've already scoped out what they need to do there:

From Feb 2020

Teams of Russian agents have been dispatched to Ireland to map undersea fiber-optic cables, with a view to “cutting communications in time of conflict.” A damning indictment that sounds suspiciously like a spy flick.

Sitting at the western edge of Europe, Ireland is the landing point for thirteen undersea fiber-optic cables. These cables carry internet traffic from the US to Ireland’s west coast, then on to the UK and mainland Europe from the east and south. The world’s economy depends on the integrity of these cables.

A map showing undersea internet cables landing in Ireland © TeleGeography
But the data arteries are under threat, according to a report in the Times, as teams of Russian agents from the GRU – Russia’s military intelligence agency – have been sent to Ireland to map their locations. The Times cites unnamed sources within An Garda Síochána – the Irish police service – and “military sources,” who also claim that the Russians have been seen photographing infrastructure at Dublin port.

A retired CIA agent told the Times that Russia has two intentions: “spying, and cutting communications in time of conflict.”

There are no further details of the sinister operation, except that the Russians are supposed to “use technology” to do the spying.

From the 1980s Hollywood premise you would almost believe the Russian agents would hoist a red flag atop one of these cables and dance the Troika along the Irish shore, but apparently they didn’t, leaving the Times without evidence of this supposed Russian meddling. Instead, the paper cites US claims of Russian submarine activity in the region back in 2015 to lend the story come credence.

 

[rurikbird]

I think a Norwegian undersea cable has been cut recently, possibly by the Russians. It's definitely part of their toolkit.

 

[rurikbird]

You're just a shill for the big western military industry.

Obviously.

 

[tomasjj]

you encircle Russia with US/Nato military bases and wonder why he gets the hump

 

[Rosco]

you encircle Russia with US/Nato military bases and wonder why he gets the hump

Biden and Pelosi are perfectly entitled to defend their assets in the Ukraine.

 

[rurikbird]

I'm not going to post the whole thing, but this is a very good summary of possible Russian ambitions and threats against Northern Europe – another hot conflict that is not impossible to imagine will happen at roughly the same time or slightly after the possible invasion of Ukraine. One thing about Putin is that when he gets ready to make a move, he is always prepared to dramatically raise the stakes, so that something that used to be unthinkable now becomes a "compromise position." West's biggest weakness in dealing with Putin has always been the failure of the imagination.

All eyes are on Ukraine. It’s understandable given the headlines:

• U.S. Weighs Pulling Diplomats’ Family Members Out of Ukraine
• Russia Thins Out Its Embassy in Ukraine, a Possible Clue to Putin’s Next Move: The slow evacuation may be part propaganda, part preparation for a conflict or part feint, Ukrainian and U.S. officials say. It could be all three
• The talks between the US and Russia are no longer “productive” or “constructive” but “frank”.

But, what if Ukraine is a decoy designed to distract attention? Or, what if Ukraine is only one piece of a much larger puzzle? What if the most plausible place for conflict is not Ukraine but a little 64 mile stretch of land between Russia’s Kaliningrad enclave and Belarus? That strip is known as the Suwalki Gap. It has long been considered by NATO as the most vulnerable physical spot in Europe. It’s not yet in the news but it’s about to be if only we can let go of the myopic tendency to view Ukraine as the only important geostrategic location at the moment.

First, not all the action is in Ukraine. The Baltic Sea has been a contested area between Russia and NATO for some time. The ongoing cat and mouse game involving ships, submarines, and spycraft there is reminiscent of The Hunt for Red October. Events only militaries know about culminated in the cutting of the fibreoptic internet cable in Svalbard, Norway on January 7th, 2021. This double cable is one of the fastest internet cables in the world. It is said that many (if not most) commercial and military satellites less than 500 miles high depend on these cables and SvalSat (Svalbard Satellite Station), to both download and upload critical information. Deloitte estimated that roughly 700 satellites fell into this category by 2021.

Rest of the article is here.

 

[Woland]

Scary read, but I went to the rest of her blog and she had a cool one about mushrooms that chilled me out a bit

 

[Athens]

It's a bit mad that Russia has gone this direction after it had opened up quite a lot during the 90s. I wonder what the local populations think of the situation now?

 

[Judge Jules]

I have a Russian friend who lives in Brussels where she's just finished a postgrad degree. She's adamant that ordinary Russians do not want any kind of conflict and may well come out in the streets against it if anything were to start. She's not sure how long that would take to have any effect on Putin's government though.

 

[The Nomad]

I have a Russian friend who lives in Brussels where she's just finished a postgrad degree. She's adamant that ordinary Russians do not want any kind of conflict and may well come out in the streets against it if anything were to start. She's not sure how long that would take to have any effect on Putin's government though.

I'm sure the ordinary people don't. Some have family in the Ukraine.

Unfortunately Putin is not an ordinary person. He's probably thinking now or never. The west is in a pretty weak position vs historically.

 

[iseered]

Apparently there's barely a mention of Ukraine in Russian media, possibly for the reason JJ noted.

 

[Rosco]

And apparently everyone in the Ukraine is wondering why the western media is making such a fuss about Russian troops when they've been there for about 8 years.

 

[doctor_mac]

The official twitter account of the state of Ukraine is pretty hilarious in its lack of flap about the issue.

 

[rurikbird]

The official twitter account of the state of Ukraine is pretty hilarious in its lack of flap about the issue.

Well, in their great wisdom the Ukrainian prople have elected a professional comedian as President at times of war; that’s certainly helpful. At least we’ll go down laughing, right?

 

[Woland]

And apparently everyone in the Ukraine is wondering why the western media is making such a fuss about Russian troops when they've been there for about 8 years.

Mad how all the headwands think the whole thing is an American psy-op when they've all been Russian psy-op'd for the past decade.

 

[Rosco]

Mad how all the headwands think the whole thing is an American psy-op when they've all been Russian psy-op'd for the past decade.

Psy-ops arent real, that's some real conspiracy bullshit

 

[Woland]

Sort of related, it's hard not to consider the hopelessness of revolution in the era of big data. It seems we're on a one way path to global autocracy. Wondering if any liberal democracies will survive, and if so, which ones they would be. I suppose the only way out is satellites being targeted and undersea cables being cut, but seems a bit ambitions for an insurgency. Einstein said 'I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones'. Well I heard someone say I don't know what tools Web3 will be built with but Web4 will be built on dial up modems and Yahoo CDs the other day and I've been thinking about it since.

 

[rurikbird]

No one messes with the Irish fishermen: