Betting 2012 weekly football bets.

[Pesam]

Small lay of Birmingham beating Leeds @ 2.14

 

[Bazza The Kopite]

Some good bets there the last 2 nights Pesam. Apart from Scunthorpe and Birmingham, pretty much winnings in all others. Payday Friday and had to raid my betfair account so couldn't back any of your suggestions this midweek! Always the weekend!

 

[Pesam]

[quote author=Bazza The Kopite link=topic=46434.msg1417667#msg1417667 date=1319662631]
Some good bets there the last 2 nights Pesam. Apart from Scunthorpe and Birmingham, pretty much winnings in all others. Payday Friday and had to raid my betfair account so couldn't back any of your suggestions this midweek! Always the weekend!
[/quote]

Thanks Baz. The Scunthorpe bet was a winning one though, they drew 2-2 (and missed 2 penalties) so because I layed Huddersfield the bet won. Southend was losing bet from Tuesday. I'm surprised Leeds couldn't score last night considering Birmingham's central defence is Caldwell and Curtis Davies who are both very limited players.

I've got Boyle staying with me over the weekend but hopefully between piss ups/hangovers I'll continue this decent run over the weekend.


Soccer / Birmingham v Leeds : Birmingham Clean Sheet? 26-Oct-11 19:45 26-Oct-11 21:59 -50.00 (3% Challenge)
Soccer / Birmingham v Leeds : Match Odds 26-Oct-11 19:45 26-Oct-11 21:57 -47.88
Soccer / Blackburn v Newcastle : Match Odds 26-Oct-11 20:00 26-Oct-11 21:57 142.73 (£40 of this bet is attributale to my 3% challenge)

Profit for the night £54 leaving the overall bank on £1324.

 

[Pesam]

Very small bet on Bradford City to win at Swindon @ 6.8
Small lay of Stevenage winning at Bury @2.66
Small lay of MK Dons winning at Walsall @ 2.22

Just the 3 today, difficult to spot much value but that might be my hangover. Right I'm back off to the pub.

 

[Pesam]

£10 @ 11/1 Joe Mason 1st goal in Cardiff V Leeds game

 

[SummerOnions]

[quote author=Pesam link=topic=46434.msg1419388#msg1419388 date=1319979367]
£10 @ 11/1 Joe Mason 1st goal in Cardiff V Leeds game
[/quote]
Good shout Pesam.

I backed Cardiff but am tempted to cash out a small profit since they've scored.

 

[Pesam]

[quote author=SummerOnions link=topic=46434.msg1419413#msg1419413 date=1319982912]
[quote author=Pesam link=topic=46434.msg1419388#msg1419388 date=1319979367]
£10 @ 11/1 Joe Mason 1st goal in Cardiff V Leeds game
[/quote]
Good shout Pesam.

I backed Cardiff but am tempted to cash out a small profit since they've scored.
[/quote]

Cheers SO, did you take your profit?


Soccer / Leeds v Cardiff : First Goalscorer 30-Oct-11 13:15 30-Oct-11 14:14 104.72
Soccer / Swindon v Bradford : Match Odds 29-Oct-11 15:00 29-Oct-11 17:12 -20.00
Soccer / Cheltenham v Plymouth : Match Odds 29-Oct-11 15:00 29-Oct-11 17:07 19.48 (3% Challenge)
Soccer / Bury v Stevenage : Match Odds 29-Oct-11 15:00 29-Oct-11 16:57 -74.70
Soccer / Walsall v MK Dons : Match Odds 29-Oct-11 15:00 29-Oct-11 16:54 -86.80
Soccer / Man City v Wolves : Match Odds 29-Oct-11 15:00 29-Oct-11 16:53 18.07 (3% Challenge)
Soccer / Scunthorpe v Tranmere : Match Odds 29-Oct-11 15:00 29-Oct-11 16:52 49.07 (3% Challenge)
Soccer / Man City v Wolves : Over/Under 2.5 goals 29-Oct-11 15:00 29-Oct-11 16:33 39.94 (3% Challenge)
Soccer / Doncaster v Coventry : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 29-Oct-11 15:00 29-Oct-11 16:19 39.05 (3% Challenge)


£77 loss after the 3% bets are deducted, leaving an overall balance of £1247

 

[SummerOnions]

Yeah i did mate, happy with a little profit.

Do you think the Newcastle odds of 4.1 are far too high? I know they aren't great away from home but i think they could do well.

 

[Pesam]

[quote author=SummerOnions link=topic=46434.msg1419983#msg1419983 date=1320071122]
Yeah i did mate, happy with a little profit.

Do you think the Newcastle odds of 4.1 are far too high? I know they aren't great away from home but i think they could do well.
[/quote]

To be honest I was thinking of laying Newcastle @ 3.5ish a few days okay because I think they'll really miss Tiote and Stoke are a very tough home team BUT I agree, the odds have drifted a bit too far and Newcastle are beginning to look decent value.

This actually happens to me quite a bit, I'll anticipate betting on Team A but when I check the prices I end up betting on Team B because that's where the value is! I think I'll possibly leave the game alone to start with and maybe get involved as it goes along. If Newcastle get to 4.3-4.4 before kick off I'll stick £20 on.

 

[Pesam]

£5 Cabaye 1st goal @ 19/1
£5 Best 1st goal @10/1
£15 Newcastle to win @ 4.5

Edit: £25 lay of Newcastle @ 1.19 so potential profit On Newcastle is £47.50 and a £10 profit on Stoke or the draw.

 

[Pesam]

[quote author=SummerOnions link=topic=46434.msg1419983#msg1419983 date=1320071122]
Yeah i did mate, happy with a little profit.

Do you think the Newcastle odds of 4.1 are far too high? I know they aren't great away from home but i think they could do well.
[/quote]

Good work SO, I wasn't totally convinced about Newcastle's chances but the price was too high considering Stoke's midfield contained the useless Whelan, Pennant & Delap.

Soccer / Stoke v Newcastle : Match Odds 31-Oct-11 20:00 31-Oct-11 21:57 45.46
Soccer / Stoke v Newcastle : First Goalscorer 31-Oct-11 20:00 31-Oct-11 20:24 -10.00

£35 profit puts my overall bank @ £1282

 

[Pesam]

Small-Medium lay of Watford beating Brighton @ 2.64
Small lay of Middlesbro winning at Doncaster @ 2.3
Big lay of Hull City winning at Barnsley @ 2.48

 

[Pesam]

Barnsley doing okay BUT I'm going to sell much of this bet now (0-0 half time) @ 3.0 so it's now a small lay but at a very good price.

 

[Bazza The Kopite]

Hull missed a pen after 26 mins.

 

[Pesam]

[quote author=Bazza The Kopite link=topic=46434.msg1420515#msg1420515 date=1320180188]
Hull missed a pen after 26 mins.
[/quote]

Yeah but apparently it was a dodgy decision.

Talking of dodgy decisions, Brighton have been forced to make a substitution and instead of one of their decent subs they've brought on their (semi- retired) assistant manager Tarrico! Because of this I've sold the liability in this bet too now and win £14 if Brighton win or draw.

 

[Bazza The Kopite]

Ha ha, it's times like this it helps for you to know the players/managers! I only put money on the Hull game. Have a few quid on Arsenal to win too. Got 1.76 on them. They should be winning but are being very sloppy in front of goal. Hopefully RVP comes on soon.

 

[Pesam]

[quote author=Bazza The Kopite link=topic=46434.msg1420515#msg1420515 date=1320180188]
Hull missed a pen after 26 mins.
[/quote]

I sold off a lot of the Man City bet btw, I now win £400 if they win the league, win £100 on United, £700 on us, level on Chelsea and lose on everyone else. I just figured that with City playing us and Chelsea in the next couple of weeks I might as well lock in a profit.

 

[Bazza The Kopite]

HAve just cashed out for a 50% loss on Arsenal bet. they are playing terrible at the moment. RVP on 10 minutes but hasn't been given the ball. Gervinho having a shocker. Pretty much even (just down) for the night with Barnsley beating Hull 2-0.

 

[Bazza The Kopite]

[quote author=Pesam link=topic=46434.msg1420518#msg1420518 date=1320180735]
[quote author=Bazza The Kopite link=topic=46434.msg1420515#msg1420515 date=1320180188]
Hull missed a pen after 26 mins.
[/quote]

I sold off a lot of the Man City bet btw, I now win £400 if they win the league, win £100 on United, £700 on us, level on Chelsea and lose on everyone else. I just figured that with City playing us and Chelsea in the next couple of weeks I might as well lock in a profit.
[/quote]

You should be safe enough for at least £100 on that bet. Hopefully it will be £700 you win, and if not, £400!

 

[Pesam]

[quote author=Bazza The Kopite link=topic=46434.msg1420543#msg1420543 date=1320183906]
[quote author=Pesam link=topic=46434.msg1420518#msg1420518 date=1320180735]
[quote author=Bazza The Kopite link=topic=46434.msg1420515#msg1420515 date=1320180188]
Hull missed a pen after 26 mins.
[/quote]

I sold off a lot of the Man City bet btw, I now win £400 if they win the league, win £100 on United, £700 on us, level on Chelsea and lose on everyone else. I just figured that with City playing us and Chelsea in the next couple of weeks I might as well lock in a profit.
[/quote]

You should be safe enough for at least £100 on that bet. Hopefully it will be £700 you win, and if not, £400!
[/quote]

I'm not overly optimistic on LFC winning me the £700 but I do think we'll have a strong 2nd half to the season, especially if Carra doesn't win his place back.

Unlucky with the Arsenal bet, they must be the most frustrating team to support or bet on.

Obviously I would have won an extra £200 if I hadn't sold a lot of the Barnsley bet but, even though they had their strongest line-up out for many weeks, I was very wary of Hull's recent string of 1-0 wins. I was hoping and expecting Barnsley to start well and take a 1st half lead - but it wasn't to be.


Soccer / Watford v Brighton : Match Odds 01-Nov-11 19:45 01-Nov-11 21:43 0.24
Soccer / Doncaster v Middlesbrough : Match Odds 01-Nov-11 19:45 01-Nov-11 21:43 -80.41 (£3 of this attributable to my 3% challenge)
Soccer / Barnsley v Hull : Match Odds 01-Nov-11 19:45 01-Nov-11 21:40 120.90 (£30 of this is attributable to my 3% challenge)
Soccer / Nottm Forest v Reading : Nottm Forest Clean Sheet? 01-Nov-11 19:45 01-Nov-11 21:39 -40.00 (3% challenge)
Soccer / Southampton v Peterborough : Both teams to Score? 01-Nov-11 19:45 01-Nov-11 21:21 13.52 (3% challenge)
Soccer / Aldershot v Burton : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 01-Nov-11 19:45 01-Nov-11 20:30 10.66 (3% challenge)

£13 profit leaves the overall bank @ £1295

 

[Pesam]

Small lay of Cardiff winning at Derby @ 2.48

 

[Pesam]

Soccer / Leeds v Blackpool : Over/Under 6.5 Goals 02-Nov-11 19:45 02-Nov-11 21:42 -1.72 (3% Challenge)
Soccer / Man Utd v Otelul Galati : Over/Under 2.5 goals 02-Nov-11 19:45 02-Nov-11 21:40 -50.00 (3% Challenge)
Soccer / Derby v Cardiff : Match Odds 02-Nov-11 19:45 02-Nov-11 21:39 -118.77 (£30 of which is attribuatble to the 3% challenge)
Soccer / Lyon v Real Madrid : Match Odds 02-Nov-11 19:45 02-Nov-11 21:39 -10.12 (3% Challenge)
Soccer / Villarreal v Man City : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 02-Nov-11 19:45 02-Nov-11 20:33 16.18 (3% Challenge)

Loss of £88 leaving the overall bank @ £1207

 

[Pesam]

[quote author=Pesam link=topic=46434.msg1420917#msg1420917 date=1320261996]
Small lay of Cardiff winning at Derby @ 2.48
[/quote]

I'm a firm believer that not all winning bets are good bets and not all losing bets are bad bets e.g. I've won bets before and been annoyed with myself because the team I bet on got completely outplayed but somehow prevailed and similarly I've lost bets wherein I still maintain the bet was a good bet but the team I backed just were unlucky (dodgy reffing, flukey goal against, man sent off early etc).

That said, once or twice a season i get a bet badly wrong and this bet above is one such case. Sometimes, when you spot a potential value bet a few days in advance, it's difficult to shake yourself from that bet regardless of fresh evidence put in front of you.

I rate Cardiff and Derby as being fairly well matched teams and therefore 2.48 for Cardiff was a "wrong" price. However, in the 2 days before the game there was enough evidence to suggest this game should have been a "no bet" and when I checked the line-up the mere sight of Kevin Kilbane and a 15 year old forward (albeit a very talented 15 year old) in the Derby line up should have been all the information I needed.

I doubt very much I would have done this bet on a Saturday with many other fixtures to choose from but as there was only 2 league matches I somehow convinced myself to stick with the bet!

Apologies to anyone who might be following this thread and investing a few quid. These "Bad" bets do make me more vigilant for a few weeks so I'm confident I'll avoid another such bet for a while - roll-on the weekend.

 

[Pesam]

Small lay of Southampton beating Coventry @ 1.79

Second week in a row where I'm struggling to find anything worth betting on! No point forcing the issue so I'll keep my powder dry and maybe there might be some betting opportunities at half time.

 

[Pesam]

Soccer / Brighton v Barnsley : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 06-Nov-11 15:00 06-Nov-11 16:20 51.41 (3% Challenge)
Soccer / QPR v Man City : Match Odds 05-Nov-11 17:30 05-Nov-11 19:24 16.18 (3% Challenge)
Soccer / Plymouth v Morecambe : Match Odds 05-Nov-11 15:00 05-Nov-11 17:21 0.29
Soccer / Gillingham v Northampton : Over/Under 2.5 goals 05-Nov-11 15:00 05-Nov-11 17:20 5.41 (3% Challenge)
Soccer / Dag and Red v Shrewsbury : Match Odds 05-Nov-11 15:00 05-Nov-11 17:16 47.60 (3% Challenge)
Soccer / Cardiff v C Palace : Cardiff Clean Sheet? 05-Nov-11 15:00 05-Nov-11 16:58 -50.00 (3% Challenge)
Soccer / Huddersfield v Walsall : Match Odds 05-Nov-11 15:00 05-Nov-11 16:56 -5.00 (3% Challenge)
Soccer / Liverpool v Swansea : Match Odds 05-Nov-11 15:00 05-Nov-11 16:54 -11.00 (3% Challenge)
Soccer / Coventry v Southampton : Match Odds 05-Nov-11 15:00 05-Nov-11 16:53 -66.40
Soccer / Arsenal v West Brom : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 05-Nov-11 15:00 05-Nov-11 15:40 38.08 (3% Challenge)
Soccer / Newcastle v Everton : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 05-Nov-11 12:45 05-Nov-11 14:40 29.04 (3% Challenge)
Soccer / Newcastle v Everton : Match Odds 05-Nov-11 12:45 05-Nov-11 14:39 -9.00 ((3% Challenge)
Soccer / Newcastle v Everton : First Goalscorer 05-Nov-11 12:45 05-Nov-11 13:48 -10.00 (3% Challenge)


Frustrating weekend, I finished up £67 on the 3% Challenge and down £66 on this thread! Overall bank for this thread is now £1141

 

[Pesam]

Ideally I'd prefer to do a medium bet laying Crawley winning at Bury but I'm comfortable enough leaving the BIG lay against Crawley that I place on the "trading" thread.

Big lay of Crawley winning at Bury @ 2.6 (they are now 2.5 which is a superb price to lay as Bury are a better team)

This does not mean Crawley CAN'T win because they're obviously a decent team but I don't think they will.

£100 of the liability in this bet will go towards my 3% challenge.



Small lay of Hereford beating Yeovil @ 2.78
Small lay of Luton beating Northampton @ 2.1


Edit: A bit of cunning trading at half time has allowed me to reduce my liability on Crawley by £100 whilst not affecting my potential profit.

 

[Pesam]

My dodgy spell has now become a bad spell and this could be down to an excessive workload which leaves me less research time or more likely just a standard poor spell of which I endure a couple every season. My overall profit from the 2 challenges is still healthy enough at about £1,300 and hopefully I can get back to winning ways this weekend.


Football / Morecambe v Sheff Wed : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 13-Nov-11 15:15 13-Nov-11 16:35 19.99 (3% Challenge)
Football / Morecambe v Sheff Wed : Morecambe Clean Sheet? 13-Nov-11 15:15 13-Nov-11 15:42 18.76 (3% Challenge)
Football / Luton v Northampton : Match Odds 12-Nov-11 15:00 12-Nov-11 17:00 -67.20
Football / Bury v Crawley Town : Match Odds 12-Nov-11 15:00 12-Nov-11 16:57 -537.27
Football / Hereford v Yeovil : Match Odds 12-Nov-11 15:00 12-Nov-11 16:53 42.84
Football / AFC Wimbledon v Scunthorpe : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 12-Nov-11 15:00 12-Nov-11 16:52 -100.00 (3% Challenge)
Football / Newport County v Shrewsbury : Match Odds 12-Nov-11 12:30 12-Nov-11 14:26 26.66 (3% Challenge)
Football / Estonia v Rep of Ireland : Match Odds 11-Nov-11 19:45 11-Nov-11 21:38 -0.38


Overall profit on this thread £580

 

[Pesam]

Small bet over 2.5 goals Aldershot V Gillingham
Very small lay of Hull City winning at Derby @ 2.74
Small-Medium layof Stevenage winning at Leyton Orient @ 2.34
Small lay of Yeovil beating Exeter @2.38
£20 Plymouth to beat Torquay @ 5.4

 

[Pesam]

Swansea 0-1 United after 10 minutes........................£11 lay of United winning to win £50

 

[Pesam]

Small lay of Millwall beating Bristol City @1.84

Edit: 1-2 to Bristol City with 20 to go. No liability now on this game and £46 profit on City or the draw.