Here are a few grand national stats for you
GRAND NATIONAL 2012
AGE
6 year olds haven't won since 1922
7 year olds haven't won since 1940
8 year olds only 1 win in last 18 years
13+ year olds only 2 wins in entire history and none have placed since 1969
The stats don't lend credit to 6, 7, 8 & 13+ year olds so we can eliminate these.
HORSES ELIMINATED:- ALFA BEAT, BLACK APALACHI, TATENEN, SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM, ON HIS OWN, ORGANISEDCONFUSION, QUISCOVER FONTAINE, THARAWAAT, VIKING BLOND, HELLO BUD, OUR ISLAND, SMOKING ACES & BALLYVESEY.
BREEDING
French bred horses have only won once in the last 101 years
Apart from Mon Mome's anomaly, French bred's are ones to avoid in this race..
HORSES ELIMINATED: NEPTUNE COLLONGES, MON MOME, LE BEAU BAI & SWING BILL.
STAMINA
Every winner since 1970 had previously won over a 3m+ distance
Comes as no surprise that a horse needs to be proven over a staying distance to win this. Changed recently so all entrants need to have finished in the first 4 in a 3m chase so it won't eliminate many this time.
HORSES ELIMINATED:- SEABASS, BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE & IN COMPLIANCE
FITNESS
Last 29 winners of race had all run in the 50 days previous.
Very hard to run well in this stamina sapping race without having at least a warm up race.
HORSES ELIMINATED: CALGARY BAY, CHICAGO GREY, WEST END ROCKER, ALWAYS RIGHT, CAPPA BLEU, TREACLE, ARBOR SUPREME, STATE OF PLAY, GILES CROSS, VIC VENTURI & ANY CURRENCY
OFFICIAL RATING
Last 11 winners were all officially rated 136+
Must have shown a decent amount of ability previously.
HORSES ELIMINATED: NEPTUNE EQUESTER, ABBEYBRANEY & SADDLERS STORM.
CHASE EXPERIENCE
Last 11 winners had all previously ran in 10 or more chases
Not surprisingly the winner can't have any weakness in his jumping and that comes from experience.
HORSES ELIMINATED: SYNCHRONISED, WEIRD AL & JUNIOR
BIG FIELD & RACE WINNER
Last 11 winners had previously won a race with 12+ runners and worth over £17k.
A horse who's won a big prize whilst in a big field has a big experience boost here.
HORSES ELIMINATED: PLANET OF SOUND, DEEP PURPLE, THE MIDNIGHT CLUB, KILLYGLEN, POSTMASTER & MIDNIGHT HAZE
FALLS
Last 11 winners had all never fallen more than once in their career
Unsurprisingly you want to be backing a horse with a good jumping record.
HORSES ELIMINATED: ALWAYS WAINING
CHECK
We are now down to the Final 4 of BALLABRIGGS, ACCORDING TO PETE, RARE BOB & SUNNYHILLBOY. It becomes a bit difficult to split these with a definitive reason.
All the last 10 winners have received at least 7lbs from the top weighted horse AND have ran 3 to 6 times since September of that season.
ELIMINATE BALLABRIGGS
British bred horses have almost as poor record French with no wins and only 6 places in the last 10 years (French 1 win, 5 places).
ELIMINATE ACCORDING TO PETE
This now leaves us with RARE BOB and Sunnyhillboy.
