Every offseason people say that this transfer window is going to be the most important one ever. But it cannot possibly be true, can it? Some transfer windows are indeed crucial and important, some are less so. I am going to argue that this summer's window is the least consequential in a long time for us. In fact (and I know that's not going to be a popular opinion here), I wouldn't have a problem if we didn't sign any players at all.
There are two reasons for that. First of all, the times when we were "2-3 world-class players away from the title" are over. Rafa's team is all but destroyed. Even Rafa himself, if he were to be appointed the next manager, would have to start essentially a new project rather than continue building on his own foundations. Some of the players he signed are still with us (Agger, Lucas, Kuyt, Skrtel), but it's just bits and pieces now, not a team, not a recognizable style and philosophy of football. Not a foundation. Hodgson's short reign is all but forgotten and Kenny's hugely expensive rebuilding last season was objectively a failure. His new signings diluted the delicious pass-and-move football of second half of 2010-11 season with a heavy doze of percentage football which proved to be an undrinkable cocktail.
The reason FSG were looking for someone like Rodgers is clear - they wanted a fresh start. A young hungry manager with new ideas, no baggage, and no loyalties and special relationships with current players. Most importantly, they wanted someone who could implement a new football philosophy at the club based on modern post-Barca tactical trends like possession, pass-and-move, total pressing, and formation fluidity. It's interesting that Rodgers, despite being hugely influenced by Mourinho, seems to be much more in the Bielsa-Guardiola camp tactically (same could be said about Martinez, while AVB seems to be closer to Mourinho's tactical model). It's also interesting to note that, despite those differences, Mourinho seems to hold Rodgers in higher regard than AVB.
A change of football philosophy and style is by far the greatest single change a football team can go through. A new paradigm is established, old assumptions are revisited and sometimes reversed, the qualities that were emphasized under the old philosophy lose importance, while those that were hidden become newly emphasized. Imagine a player like Xavi Hernandez playing for a team managed by Roy Hodgson, going through endless defensive drills, watching the ball fly over his head in games and worrying if his lack of pace and tackling skills (not to mention his lack of height) will jeopardize his place in the team. Suddenly, Guardiola is appointed and he tells the players that he is looking for completely different qualities, such as ability to pass and think quickly and creatively, run tirelessly and press high up the pitch instead of holding 2 narrow lines of defense near your own area. And he doesn't give flying crap about height because he wants to keep the ball on the ground at all times... What was good is now bad, and what was bad is now good.
I believe there are 3 different tactical structures/philosophies competing at the highest levels of football coaching thought today:
1) A counter-attacking model, emphasizing closing down space (instead of pressing) in defense and creating space in attack by inviting opponent's attacks, then exploiting it with lightning-quick counter-attacks and vertical passes (let's call it the Italian model, although it's practiced by many non-Italians, such as Mourinho)
2) A fluid pressing model, emphasizing possession, "triangle offense", constant interchange of positions and "controlled chaos", pressing high up the pitch, de-emphasizing speed (the Spanish/Catalan model, Guardiola-Bielsa etc)
3) A rigid pressing model, emphasizing balance between attack and counter-attack, rigid formation with well-defined roles of each player (usually 4-2-3-1), also pressing high up the pitch (the German/Spanish model, Klopp-Rafa-Loew-Emery etc)
All 3 systems can deliver results; I don't think any of those systems is necessarily "better" than others. It all depends on the execution. Of course the balance of power and the dominant trends can change with every season and every won and lost trophy. After a few seasons of domination by the Spanish/Catalan model, this season the Italian model is back with a vengeance, so far winning the CL, La Liga and the Premiership (as well as Serie A, of course), German/Spanish model has had some limited success (Dortmund in BL and Bayern in CL, Atletico?), while Spanish/Catalan model lost not only competitions, but also it's most visible proponents (Guardiola in Spain and Enrique in Italy). However, there is a new crop of young managers who were influenced by Barca's recent success and are eager to pick up the banner. One of them has just been appointed to manage Liverpool...
This has been a lengthy detour but I think it was important to explain why I think a style/philosophy change is such a big deal. In essence, we will be moving from the remnants of Rafa's rigid 4-2-3-1 to something much more fluid, something along the lines of Barca-style 4-3-3/3-4-3. That's a big fucking deal. I am amazed how little club owners know/care about things like that, and how often the get burned by their own ignorance. Moratti gives us a classic example that will go down in history of inept management: after Mourinho (system 1) you invite Rafa (3), then Gasperini (local version of 2)? All within a calendar year? You couldn't possibly devise a better scheme to fuck up a great treble-winning Inter team for the long, medium and short term if you tried.
So, why do I say I'll be OK with no new players? Well, in essence, because all the players at LFC will be new to Rodgers and his system will be new to them. It's hard to predict who is going to respond well and who won't. Like I said before, new system will bring out strengths that were hidden in some players and render other visible strengths useless or not as useful. When you are changing the whole, how do you predict the movements of individual parts? You can't or if you can, it's only to a very limited extent. We have to be prepared for the new reality to challenge our long-standing assumptions about our players. Strengths can turn into liabilities and vise versa. I don't think anybody at the club, including Rodgers himself, can quite predict how this or that player is going to fit into the new system. So why make big, important decisions based on incomplete and unreliable assessment of the situation? Sure, we can decide, say to sell Downing or Carroll now and buy so-and-so, but who can guarantee that Downing would not find some resource in his game to be useful in the new system? Maybe he becomes a great wingback in the Dani Alves mould rather than a mediocre winger. Maybe Carroll can do what Llorente does for Bilbao and more. I can go on and on (as evidenced by the exorbitant length of this post - I apologize, I didn't really expect to write so much), but I think by now you should understand my point.
The second reason we shouldn't make big decisions this summer is more practical and has to do with hedging your bets in case they go bad. Suppose Rodgers doesn't work out, the team is in disarray by mid-season and the owners have no choice but to sack him. Wouldn't you then wish you didn't remake the whole team according to his demands before the season even started? Then the next manager will bring a different vision and a transfer target list, ship out the players from the previous regime that don't fit his vision etc etc. I sure hope that doesn't happen because that's the fastest road to Mediocristan. I want to believe in Rodgers's vision, skill and character and based on the little bit of evidence I've seen so far, I think he might be exactly what we need at this time, but let's not forget that he is essentially unproven and that the first season at LFC will be his audition as well. So if I'm FSG, I would be very cautious in this transfer window; maybe I could grab an odd player of two if I see an obvious can't-miss value on the market and of course there will be some natural ins and outs among fringe and role players. But I think NOT making a big splash in this summer transfer window is the correct strategy.
Let's give all of our current players a chance to prove themselves within the new system; let's give Rodgers a chance to prove that his new system is what this team needs. Then and only then we can make big decisions.
There are two reasons for that. First of all, the times when we were "2-3 world-class players away from the title" are over. Rafa's team is all but destroyed. Even Rafa himself, if he were to be appointed the next manager, would have to start essentially a new project rather than continue building on his own foundations. Some of the players he signed are still with us (Agger, Lucas, Kuyt, Skrtel), but it's just bits and pieces now, not a team, not a recognizable style and philosophy of football. Not a foundation. Hodgson's short reign is all but forgotten and Kenny's hugely expensive rebuilding last season was objectively a failure. His new signings diluted the delicious pass-and-move football of second half of 2010-11 season with a heavy doze of percentage football which proved to be an undrinkable cocktail.
The reason FSG were looking for someone like Rodgers is clear - they wanted a fresh start. A young hungry manager with new ideas, no baggage, and no loyalties and special relationships with current players. Most importantly, they wanted someone who could implement a new football philosophy at the club based on modern post-Barca tactical trends like possession, pass-and-move, total pressing, and formation fluidity. It's interesting that Rodgers, despite being hugely influenced by Mourinho, seems to be much more in the Bielsa-Guardiola camp tactically (same could be said about Martinez, while AVB seems to be closer to Mourinho's tactical model). It's also interesting to note that, despite those differences, Mourinho seems to hold Rodgers in higher regard than AVB.
A change of football philosophy and style is by far the greatest single change a football team can go through. A new paradigm is established, old assumptions are revisited and sometimes reversed, the qualities that were emphasized under the old philosophy lose importance, while those that were hidden become newly emphasized. Imagine a player like Xavi Hernandez playing for a team managed by Roy Hodgson, going through endless defensive drills, watching the ball fly over his head in games and worrying if his lack of pace and tackling skills (not to mention his lack of height) will jeopardize his place in the team. Suddenly, Guardiola is appointed and he tells the players that he is looking for completely different qualities, such as ability to pass and think quickly and creatively, run tirelessly and press high up the pitch instead of holding 2 narrow lines of defense near your own area. And he doesn't give flying crap about height because he wants to keep the ball on the ground at all times... What was good is now bad, and what was bad is now good.
I believe there are 3 different tactical structures/philosophies competing at the highest levels of football coaching thought today:
1) A counter-attacking model, emphasizing closing down space (instead of pressing) in defense and creating space in attack by inviting opponent's attacks, then exploiting it with lightning-quick counter-attacks and vertical passes (let's call it the Italian model, although it's practiced by many non-Italians, such as Mourinho)
2) A fluid pressing model, emphasizing possession, "triangle offense", constant interchange of positions and "controlled chaos", pressing high up the pitch, de-emphasizing speed (the Spanish/Catalan model, Guardiola-Bielsa etc)
3) A rigid pressing model, emphasizing balance between attack and counter-attack, rigid formation with well-defined roles of each player (usually 4-2-3-1), also pressing high up the pitch (the German/Spanish model, Klopp-Rafa-Loew-Emery etc)
All 3 systems can deliver results; I don't think any of those systems is necessarily "better" than others. It all depends on the execution. Of course the balance of power and the dominant trends can change with every season and every won and lost trophy. After a few seasons of domination by the Spanish/Catalan model, this season the Italian model is back with a vengeance, so far winning the CL, La Liga and the Premiership (as well as Serie A, of course), German/Spanish model has had some limited success (Dortmund in BL and Bayern in CL, Atletico?), while Spanish/Catalan model lost not only competitions, but also it's most visible proponents (Guardiola in Spain and Enrique in Italy). However, there is a new crop of young managers who were influenced by Barca's recent success and are eager to pick up the banner. One of them has just been appointed to manage Liverpool...
This has been a lengthy detour but I think it was important to explain why I think a style/philosophy change is such a big deal. In essence, we will be moving from the remnants of Rafa's rigid 4-2-3-1 to something much more fluid, something along the lines of Barca-style 4-3-3/3-4-3. That's a big fucking deal. I am amazed how little club owners know/care about things like that, and how often the get burned by their own ignorance. Moratti gives us a classic example that will go down in history of inept management: after Mourinho (system 1) you invite Rafa (3), then Gasperini (local version of 2)? All within a calendar year? You couldn't possibly devise a better scheme to fuck up a great treble-winning Inter team for the long, medium and short term if you tried.
So, why do I say I'll be OK with no new players? Well, in essence, because all the players at LFC will be new to Rodgers and his system will be new to them. It's hard to predict who is going to respond well and who won't. Like I said before, new system will bring out strengths that were hidden in some players and render other visible strengths useless or not as useful. When you are changing the whole, how do you predict the movements of individual parts? You can't or if you can, it's only to a very limited extent. We have to be prepared for the new reality to challenge our long-standing assumptions about our players. Strengths can turn into liabilities and vise versa. I don't think anybody at the club, including Rodgers himself, can quite predict how this or that player is going to fit into the new system. So why make big, important decisions based on incomplete and unreliable assessment of the situation? Sure, we can decide, say to sell Downing or Carroll now and buy so-and-so, but who can guarantee that Downing would not find some resource in his game to be useful in the new system? Maybe he becomes a great wingback in the Dani Alves mould rather than a mediocre winger. Maybe Carroll can do what Llorente does for Bilbao and more. I can go on and on (as evidenced by the exorbitant length of this post - I apologize, I didn't really expect to write so much), but I think by now you should understand my point.
The second reason we shouldn't make big decisions this summer is more practical and has to do with hedging your bets in case they go bad. Suppose Rodgers doesn't work out, the team is in disarray by mid-season and the owners have no choice but to sack him. Wouldn't you then wish you didn't remake the whole team according to his demands before the season even started? Then the next manager will bring a different vision and a transfer target list, ship out the players from the previous regime that don't fit his vision etc etc. I sure hope that doesn't happen because that's the fastest road to Mediocristan. I want to believe in Rodgers's vision, skill and character and based on the little bit of evidence I've seen so far, I think he might be exactly what we need at this time, but let's not forget that he is essentially unproven and that the first season at LFC will be his audition as well. So if I'm FSG, I would be very cautious in this transfer window; maybe I could grab an odd player of two if I see an obvious can't-miss value on the market and of course there will be some natural ins and outs among fringe and role players. But I think NOT making a big splash in this summer transfer window is the correct strategy.
Let's give all of our current players a chance to prove themselves within the new system; let's give Rodgers a chance to prove that his new system is what this team needs. Then and only then we can make big decisions.
