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Big Sir Jim's massive folly

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This would’ve been unimaginable 20 years ago. I can’t decide whether relegation is better than having them hang around losing every other week. Relegation would be too funny but that’d surely be the point someone comes and buys them off Glazers.
 
doctor_mac said:
You need to publish this out there somewhere. I hate to say it, but for the real Utd supporters more than anything. They need to know how fucked their club is.
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I’ve been laughing at some of the social media posts from their content creators. WE CAN SPEND £400M! Just sell x, y and an and they’ll be back.

Nah lads. You need to hope those coming up aren’t better than Ipswich, Southampton and Leicester.
 
StevieM said:
I want to monetise @binomial, @bluebell & @moron’s tears of joy & frustration.

There be gold in dem seams!!!!
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you're unhinged too in your own way. I remember you saying you wish the club would make no signings so you could see meltdown from posters like me. We did meltdown not at getting new signings but at how long it took to renew Salah and VVDs contracts
 
Let's be honest. No one will pay for Beamrider or Binny.

What sells these days are unhinged rants from angry old men watching the TV on a live stream.
 
bluebell said:
you're unhinged too in your own way. I remember you saying you wish the club would make no signings so you could see meltdown from posters like me. We did meltdown not at getting new signings but at how long it took to renew Salah and VVDs contracts
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But they got it done before they expired. The only issue was your impatience. It's like saying I want fish and chips and the chippy closes at 21.00, I get there at 20.45 and walk away with my fish and chips. I'm not going hungry and who cares what time it closes because I got what I came for!
 
bluebell said:
you're unhinged too in your own way. I remember you saying you wish the club would make no signings so you could see meltdown from posters like me. We did meltdown not at getting new signings but at how long it took to renew Salah and VVDs contracts
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Several points here…

1. Absolutely I’m unhinged
2. No way I said “you wish the club would make no signings so you could see meltdown from posters like me” without some sort of qualifier or in jest - prove me wrong.
3. You always meltdown over unimportant things - it didn’t matter how long it took to renew Salah & VDV - that was the whole point
 
That didnt hurt too much - interesting

One question - you say Utd commercial revenue has grown less than other clubs, but they used to be the poster boy for commercial revenue. Is it possible that they got so far ahead that this is more of a plateauing at the top rather than a meaningful drop in performance (bit like us taking 1 pt from 9 after we won the league)?

How do their latest commercial revenue numbers look compared to the others? If they are hundreds of millions ahead, then a slowdown in growth is less of a concern for them
 
i still don't get how bluechip companies like Qualcomm are throwing money at them? Yeah they're a big club but as Beamy said you look at all the metrics our club produces including social interactions, analystics around player and fan engagements etc I bet Utd don't even come close to us. Is it just a legacy thing that is keeping the sponsors going to them a bit like Ferrari in F1? The name is keeping them alive and a bunch of stuff they did in the past?
 
Beamrider said:
Jimbo probably wasn’t exaggerating the bankruptcy risk (although why he would talk about it is anyone’s guess, the absolute melt)
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To put more pressure on the Glazers to fuck off? That would be my guess
 
tombrown said:
That didnt hurt too much - interesting

One question - you say Utd commercial revenue has grown less than other clubs, but they used to be the poster boy for commercial revenue. Is it possible that they got so far ahead that this is more of a plateauing at the top rather than a meaningful drop in performance (bit like us taking 1 pt from 9 after we won the league)?

How do their latest commercial revenue numbers look compared to the others? If they are hundreds of millions ahead, then a slowdown in growth is less of a concern for them
Click to expand...
To get into a bit more detail:

2024 commercial revenue:

United £303m
City £345m
Liverpool £308m
Arsenal £218m (NB big leap from prior years)
Spurs £245m
Chelsea £225m

United's 2023 figure is basically the same as 2024, and prior to that it hovered at about £250m. 2024 is the first year where ours is higher, but City have been ahead for a while. City's revenue follows a similar pattern to United's but you can add about £40m to each year's numbers. Obviously City needs to be taken with a pinch of salt as we know it's largely owner-backed.
By contrast, we've grown - £218m - £247m - £273m - £308m.

As I said, it's possible United maxed out but I don't think so. Even if they had hit peak volume, they still should have earned inflationary benefits, but they haven't really done that. That may be, in part, because they had those massively over-priced deals with Adidas and Chevrolet. If that's the case then they've fallen back on everything else because we have overtaken them without deals like that. In the two 4-year periods I looked at, they were at £275m - £279m for four years - basically flat. Then they dropped off for a few years, and then went higher. But across the piece, rolling average, they've hardly grown their commercial revenue in 8 years, while the other clubs have caught up. Some of that will be scale, some of it will be price, but however you look at other, United have lost the magic sauce.
 
737Max said:
i still don't get how bluechip companies like Qualcomm are throwing money at them? Yeah they're a big club but as Beamy said you look at all the metrics our club produces including social interactions, analystics around player and fan engagements etc I bet Utd don't even come close to us. Is it just a legacy thing that is keeping the sponsors going to them a bit like Ferrari in F1? The name is keeping them alive and a buc of stuff they did in the past?
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I think there's a legacy aspect, but there's probably something about reach. It's not just how many fans you can reach, but where they are. So, with Mo, our reach into Africa and Arab nations is unrivalled, but if you're targeting North America then United probably still have better reach. Across Asia it's probably similar in total, but LFC probably does better in Indonesia / Thailand where United still cut through in China. Part of the reason why we've been sponsored by Standard Chartered for so long is that we reach the parts of Asia other clubs can't.
But even where United are retaining strong brands, they're probably not getting the price they used to because of the failing power of their "brand" (the Adidas deal is a perfect example of this, reduced exposure, reduced price). Plus there's also the switching element. Once a brand has a strong association with a particular club, you can't just pop over to a rival team because their fanbase will still associate the brand with the other team. Could you imagine Vodafone on an LFC shirt, or Carlsberg on a United one?
 
Beamrider said:
To get into a bit more detail:

2024 commercial revenue:

United £303m
City £345m
Liverpool £308m
Arsenal £218m (NB big leap from prior years)
Spurs £245m
Chelsea £225m

United's 2023 figure is basically the same as 2024, and prior to that it hovered at about £250m. 2024 is the first year where ours is higher, but City have been ahead for a while. City's revenue follows a similar pattern to United's but you can add about £40m to each year's numbers. Obviously City needs to be taken with a pinch of salt as we know it's largely owner-backed.
By contrast, we've grown - £218m - £247m - £273m - £308m.

As I said, it's possible United maxed out but I don't think so. Even if they had hit peak volume, they still should have earned inflationary benefits, but they haven't really done that. That may be, in part, because they had those massively over-priced deals with Adidas and Chevrolet. If that's the case then they've fallen back on everything else because we have overtaken them without deals like that. In the two 4-year periods I looked at, they were at £275m - £279m for four years - basically flat. Then they dropped off for a few years, and then went higher. But across the piece, rolling average, they've hardly grown their commercial revenue in 8 years, while the other clubs have caught up. Some of that will be scale, some of it will be price, but however you look at other, United have lost the magic sauce.
Click to expand...

Yeah, but we all know that in reality Arsenal were best, weren't they?
 
Beamrider said:
To get into a bit more detail:

2024 commercial revenue:

United £303m
City £345m
Liverpool £308m
Arsenal £218m (NB big leap from prior years)
Spurs £245m
Chelsea £225m

United's 2023 figure is basically the same as 2024, and prior to that it hovered at about £250m. 2024 is the first year where ours is higher, but City have been ahead for a while. City's revenue follows a similar pattern to United's but you can add about £40m to each year's numbers. Obviously City needs to be taken with a pinch of salt as we know it's largely owner-backed.
By contrast, we've grown - £218m - £247m - £273m - £308m.

As I said, it's possible United maxed out but I don't think so. Even if they had hit peak volume, they still should have earned inflationary benefits, but they haven't really done that. That may be, in part, because they had those massively over-priced deals with Adidas and Chevrolet. If that's the case then they've fallen back on everything else because we have overtaken them without deals like that. In the two 4-year periods I looked at, they were at £275m - £279m for four years - basically flat. Then they dropped off for a few years, and then went higher. But across the piece, rolling average, they've hardly grown their commercial revenue in 8 years, while the other clubs have caught up. Some of that will be scale, some of it will be price, but however you look at other, United have lost the magic sauce.
Click to expand...
After winning the league, there will be loads of sponsors from Asia wanting get around the Liverpool brand - I think Commercial Rev will surpass £400m after this year
 
On the commercial thing, and it's purely anecdotal, but I've seen more fc Miami shirts than united shirts in the last decade in the states. In terms of our league, it's mostly Haaland city shirts on young kids, and then obviously barca and real. If you aren't winning, right now, and more importantly, you don't have a single big name player, then nobody young cares.
 
Bit of talk elsewhere about likely sales from Old Toilet this summer. This is my best guess of the carrying values (i.e. accounts values) of the United squad as at 30/6/2025 - these are the values they'd need to beat to realise a profit on sale (although I really think they need to focus on getting cash in):

Yoro £46m
Hojlund £44.5m
Ugarte £44.3m
de Ligt £38.9m
Antony £35.8m (suspect they will have to write him down) *
Mount £34.9m
Zirkzee £31.0m
Onana £30.1m
Dorgu £25.0m
Martinez £23.4m
Mazraoui £22.8m
Casemiro £17.4m
Sancho £15.5m (again, may have to be written down) *
Shaw £11.8m
Fernandes £11.3m
Diallo £7.4m
Maguire £5.0m
Malacia £3.9m
Bayindir £2.5m
Rashford £0.8m
Dalot £0.7m
Garnacho £0.6m

* Just to explain that for silly accounting rule purposes, on-loan players are subject to a valuation test as they are "not part of the squad" whereas players who are still in the squad don't need to be written down if the whole squad is still worth at least the total accounts value (so unrecorded value for Fernandes, Mainoo, Garnacho etc. will sustain an over-valuations elsewhere in the squad).

Everyone else will have a nil / negligible value - e.g. Lindelof will be out of contract, other youth players will have bobbins on the books (e.g. Mainoo).

You can see why sales of Fernandes, Rashford, Garnacho and Mainoo would be attractive - they'd bring in some decent amounts of cash AND make a profit.
 
Beamrider said:
Bit of talk elsewhere about likely sales from Old Toilet this summer. This is my best guess of the carrying values (i.e. accounts values) of the United squad as at 30/6/2025 - these are the values they'd need to beat to realise a profit on sale (although I really think they need to focus on getting cash in):

Yoro £46m
Hojlund £44.5m
Ugarte £44.3m
de Ligt £38.9m
Antony £35.8m (suspect they will have to write him down) *
Mount £34.9m
Zirkzee £31.0m
Onana £30.1m
Dorgu £25.0m
Martinez £23.4m
Mazraoui £22.8m
Casemiro £17.4m
Sancho £15.5m (again, may have to be written down) *
Shaw £11.8m
Fernandes £11.3m
Diallo £7.4m
Maguire £5.0m
Malacia £3.9m
Bayindir £2.5m
Rashford £0.8m
Dalot £0.7m
Garnacho £0.6m

* Just to explain that for silly accounting rule purposes, on-loan players are subject to a valuation test as they are "not part of the squad" whereas players who are still in the squad don't need to be written down if the whole squad is still worth at least the total accounts value (so unrecorded value for Fernandes, Mainoo, Garnacho etc. will sustain an over-valuations elsewhere in the squad).

Everyone else will have a nil / negligible value - e.g. Lindelof will be out of contract, other youth players will have bobbins on the books (e.g. Mainoo).

You can see why sales of Fernandes, Rashford, Garnacho and Mainoo would be attractive - they'd bring in some decent amounts of cash AND make a profit.
Click to expand...
They surely can't let go of Fernamdes, Diallo or Mainoo. Antony and Sancho have burnt bridges, they'll be sold. Their problem is there aren't more than 5-6 players worth keeping. They are up to their necks an sinking.
 
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