Dear John W Henry
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Well the flip side of this is we sign a younger player (22, 23...) He doesn't play, goes out on loan, people say he will improve, he never does. Wham bam we've ruined another player
Like I said in the other thread I know fuck all about him, but everything I've read about says he an attacking midfielder - and can play wide or through the middle.
So is Alonso a good comparison?
Examples from 20 years ago have little value given how much the game has changed- players are picked up earlier by top clubs and the level of professionalism is totally different.
I don't know of (m)any attacking midfielders who were better at 29 than they were at 25. Which is why I asked the question - and I've never had anybody who keeps telling me players peak at 29 provide me with anything to suggest more attacking midfielders peak later than not.
So unless there's a strong reason to believe Lallana is different to everybody else - the late bloomer theory being the main one - then I think the idea of signing him presents a huge risk given the cost involved
We've all been here before and I think most would be weary of signing an English player halfway through his career on the back of a couple good seasons. Particularly when he's going to cost the same or more than a top class prospect from outside the league.
There is of course something to be said for no two players being alike and those in the game who know Lallana well might have greater insight as to whether he'll continue along this upward curve or drop like a stone.
From a risk point of view, it doesn't seem like a gamble worth making for a club in our position.
There is of course something to be said for no two players being alike and those in the game who know Lallana well might have greater insight as to whether he'll continue along this upward curve or drop like a stone.
From a risk point of view, it doesn't seem like a gamble worth making for a club in our position.
I think for his type of player it's 25/26.
The ones that are still great at 29 typically are some of the best players to have played the game - so is that realistic for Lallana ?
I won't get into debating the specifics (Pirlo isn't an AM for me for example) but I think it says a lot that you have to go back 40 years to get four names.
Here's a better way - can we list all the AM's we can think of that played in the last 10 years.
And then have a look.
On a bit of an aside, I was thinking about this the other day and Robben has done amazingly well to keep performing at a really high level given his position (if you reckon wingers can be a bit flakey over the course of their career) and injury record.
I think he's 30 now and can still turn it on and go past players like they're not there. I always figured he'd fade away once he got older (though that opinion may have been influenced by him looking like he was 40 from the get go).
I think he's 30 now and can still turn it on and go past players like they're not there. I always figured he'd fade away once he got older (though that opinion may have been influenced by him looking like he was 40 from the get go).
Yup.
I was thinking about this recently - he's the only winger at that age I'd take over a 19 year old pacey wing prospect.
It's phenomenal
Not having this he's 30 stuff. Robben is actually 54, but takes some youth elixir to keep his condition at 26. Unfortunately it doesn't work on his face.
It's not worth saying you think a player is worth X
If there's a decent player up for grabs he's going for what the market will bid. And the market will bid higher every year, busting inflation and normal models because the amount of money available is based on whatever commercial deals clubs have just done and how much TV money BT and Sky are throwing at them. For some reason they're increasing exponentially so transfer fees and wages for the best available players are too.
I don't give a fuck how much we spend on players but we need loads of first team quality if we're gonna attack the league and CL. I dunno why but even without selling anyone I'd say we need two more defenders, midfielders and attacking players.. so six first team players. Look at City and Chelsea's squads... we might be playing 20 more games next season. If they don't get loads in or make a decision not to fight too hard in the CL we won't get back in the top 4. Lallana would fit right into BRs style so if he's available and can be afforded they should defo buy him
If there's a decent player up for grabs he's going for what the market will bid. And the market will bid higher every year, busting inflation and normal models because the amount of money available is based on whatever commercial deals clubs have just done and how much TV money BT and Sky are throwing at them. For some reason they're increasing exponentially so transfer fees and wages for the best available players are too.
I don't give a fuck how much we spend on players but we need loads of first team quality if we're gonna attack the league and CL. I dunno why but even without selling anyone I'd say we need two more defenders, midfielders and attacking players.. so six first team players. Look at City and Chelsea's squads... we might be playing 20 more games next season. If they don't get loads in or make a decision not to fight too hard in the CL we won't get back in the top 4. Lallana would fit right into BRs style so if he's available and can be afforded they should defo buy him
Yeah but if we need 6 players with a limited amount of money surely all the more reason to seek every bit of value.
Well as an alternative to Lallana what about a player we've actually been linked to a few times, Roberto Firmino? Looks like he could do a a similar sort of job from what I've seen, would fit in with our style etc. He's been valued at £12-13m in the stories I've read (1 year on his contract) and at 22 is a much better age. So he'd perhaps be half the price and have nearly double the 'useful life'... course it could be a disaster but then so could Lallana.
More generally, I'd suggest getting in 3 older players who've already lost a lot of value, ideally top class ones with plenty of experience at CL level. One each at holding midfield and centre half (cos I reckon we've got very promising youngsters there who can replace them within a couple of years) and maybe Ashley Cole at left back, just to buy us a bit of time. Someone like Alonso would've been ideal at DM - that's the sort of player I'm talking about. Either on frees or small fees (not more than £5m each).
That leaves the attackers. Ok, Konoplyanka at £15m. Some striker at £20m.
So that's (15+20+13+5+5+0) = £58m for 6 first team players. Pretty sure we could bring in £20-25m in sales... hopefully FSG would foot the bill for the rest, seeing what's at stake.
If we get a CL spot we'll have a bit extra to spend, maybe (hopefully) net £40m.
If we could get Lallana, Ings, a rock solid left back and a hard bastard DM'er for a combined £60m....Lallana £20m, Ings £8m, £10m for the left back and £20m for the DM'er and then sell Lucas, Agger, Aspas, Reina and Alberto for about £20m I reckon we'd seriously be in with a shout of winning the league (hopefully retaining it) and going very far in the CL. If we want Konoplyanka as well then we'll also have to sell Borini, Wisdom and Suso.
If we could get Lallana, Ings, a rock solid left back and a hard bastard DM'er for a combined £60m....Lallana £20m, Ings £8m, £10m for the left back and £20m for the DM'er and then sell Lucas, Agger, Aspas, Reina and Alberto for about £20m I reckon we'd seriously be in with a shout of winning the league (hopefully retaining it) and going very far in the CL. If we want Konoplyanka as well then we'll also have to sell Borini, Wisdom and Suso.
I would say generally players reliant on their physical abilities perform at the highest level aged between the ages of 24-29.
Players who're less reliant on their physical abilities, or players whose games are based on their intelligence, vision etc. for e.g. certain CBs or playmakers generally have their peaks from say 26-32.
Lallana strikes me as a player who will play at this level for another 2-3 years tops; so spending big money on him is pointless. If you were getting him for 7 million, then sure, why not; but if if we're spending in the 12-15 million range, I'd rather spend on the likes of Firmino and Konoplyanka, who not only have their physical peaks ahead of them, but are also likely to significantly improve at their ages (which I don't think Lallana particularly will).
Players who're less reliant on their physical abilities, or players whose games are based on their intelligence, vision etc. for e.g. certain CBs or playmakers generally have their peaks from say 26-32.
Lallana strikes me as a player who will play at this level for another 2-3 years tops; so spending big money on him is pointless. If you were getting him for 7 million, then sure, why not; but if if we're spending in the 12-15 million range, I'd rather spend on the likes of Firmino and Konoplyanka, who not only have their physical peaks ahead of them, but are also likely to significantly improve at their ages (which I don't think Lallana particularly will).
I've never heard of Firmino before and now twice in a minute.
http://www.damninteresting.com/the-baader-meinhof-phenomenon/
http://www.damninteresting.com/the-baader-meinhof-phenomenon/
Here's a novel idea.
How about we don't try and sell stacks of players for a pittance & buy overpriced replacements that need ages to integrate.
How about we supplement our squad (and wage bill) with the players we loaned out (bar Reina).
How about we don't sell anyone.
How about we take whatever cash we have and invest it in one or two truly talented individuals around the age of 23 and just keep doing what we've been doing this season.
How about we don't try and sell stacks of players for a pittance & buy overpriced replacements that need ages to integrate.
How about we supplement our squad (and wage bill) with the players we loaned out (bar Reina).
How about we don't sell anyone.
How about we take whatever cash we have and invest it in one or two truly talented individuals around the age of 23 and just keep doing what we've been doing this season.
They don't have to be.
They have to he capable of some EPL games & a few Cup games though.
Put the feelers out that we're looking at a player called Oussama Assaidi. Worth £20 mil, scored some boss goals this season.
Then sell him to spurs
Then sell him to spurs
If you don't want to win anything.
Who are we actually talking about, though? Assaidi and Borini? Neither of them are very good, but both have performed above expectations on loan and therefore gone up in value. I'd say we should be looking to sell them both, really.
There are a few other promising youngsters but think most of them could do with another year out, ideally.
Yer talking daft Stevie if we hadn't speculated a few years ago we wouldn't have Sterling or Henderson and if we hadn't splashed the cash we wouldn't have Suarez or Sturridge but we could have kept the likes of Darren Potter, El Zahr, John Welsh and Adam Hammill who were all out on loan.
Because our squad has improved a lot over the last couple of years the standard of the players we're able to loan out has improved but this doesn't mean they should be kept. Most of them won't make the grade and if this squad is to make the next step up we're gonna have speculate and invest further whilst trimming "the fat".
I'd love to see Borini, Wisdom, Assaidi, Aspas, Alberto, Kelly, Robinson etc make the grade at LFC but realistically only one of them at most will play 10+ games for the first team from this point.
Well there's Suso, Robinson, Wisdom, and yer man at Sheffield plus McLaughlin, Ibe & whatever other youngsters are up for breaking through than haven't been sent in loan - so Smith & Texeria.
Quite, I think we have to pin our hope on getting two or three additions from the lads who are the fringe of things, like Suso.
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