You don't think we can spend 100 mill after the transfer window we had in 24/25 and the season we had in terms of success? Its quite obvious that we are in a very healthy situation.
Leftism
- Thread starter Hansern
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You don't think we can spend 100 mill after the transfer window we had in 24/25 and the season we had in terms of success? Its quite obvious that we are in a very healthy situation.
I think we probably can but I wouldn't say it's a certainty.
And I wouldn't be at all surprised if that's about our limit, and if that's the case then we'd need a big sale to carry on and get a striker.
Selling Darwin will facilitate a lot of that money towards a 9.
Elliott, Kelleher, Morton are all sales that go directly as profit towards PSR as well.
Jones is shite at LW no way he can cover there. If we play Wirtz there we are losing the main reason for signing him. Rio is a child - cup matches at best.
We need a replacement if Diaz leaves. I won't be happy but if we get North of £70m then it's adequate compensation and at his age I can understand the club accepting an offer.
We definitely need to sell big to fund a Wirtz level signing, we know this from years of experience don't we? I'd rather it be Diaz than someone like Alisson. There's no way we're buying Kerkez, Wirtz, Frimpong and more without a sacrificial lamb.
TBF the sacrifical lambs for me were always nunez, elliott, kelleher. I only thought we'd sell diaz if we wanted a consistent upgrade
I don't think short term PSR is an issue so accelerated profits from youth players are probably irrelevant.
So, viable options (maybe):
Rafa Leao - 25 so on the cusp of what we like. Milan need to sell. Not ideal though as he's direct, but not consistent enough.
Malick Fofana - 20. Decent option but lyon are a bastard to negotiate with, and already losing Cherki.
Jamie Bynoe-Gittens - 20. English. Would cost a fuckind ton though
Antony Gordon - 24. Scouser. Would cost a fuckign ton though
Morgan Rodgers: 22. The dream signing. He's versatile, strong, and performed at CL level well. May not be an awful fee due to Villa missing CL.
There's a mad chance to go for Leroy Sane on a free as well. 29, backup to gakpo. Can play either wing. I don't hate it
Rafa Leao - 25 so on the cusp of what we like. Milan need to sell. Not ideal though as he's direct, but not consistent enough.
Malick Fofana - 20. Decent option but lyon are a bastard to negotiate with, and already losing Cherki.
Jamie Bynoe-Gittens - 20. English. Would cost a fuckind ton though
Antony Gordon - 24. Scouser. Would cost a fuckign ton though
Morgan Rodgers: 22. The dream signing. He's versatile, strong, and performed at CL level well. May not be an awful fee due to Villa missing CL.
There's a mad chance to go for Leroy Sane on a free as well. 29, backup to gakpo. Can play either wing. I don't hate it
I think we probably intend to sign those 3 plus a striker, and then any others depending on outgoings.
That lot is gonna be around the £250m mark, so we're clearly gonna need major sales to offset that. Nunez at £50m or so doesn't cut it.
I'm guessing Diaz going will be used to fund that for now, and then if further sales are realised THEN there might be enough left to also sign a replacement.
In a round about way we're probably doing that, we're reshaping the team and the sources of creativity, I get what you mean though.
Leao going to Bayern it seems
Fofana is super young, and has only had 1 season of first team experience in a weaker league. Not sure he can come in and replace what Diaz provides in terms of work rate and availability
Gittens is likely to move to Chelsea from latest reports
Rogers, I doubt Villa will sell, and they have him on a long term deal. I think Gordon is probably the best target. He didn't have a great season, but otherwise has a strong body of work, is the right age, is motivated to move to us, and most importantly I think Newcastle are seriously interested in Quansah. There's a deal to be made there.
Elliott - £30m
Kelleher - £18m
Nunez - £50m
Diaz - £60m
Trent - £12m
£170m
I can't see us selling Quansah or Gomez unless we are signing a CB, so I'm guessing if we do that it will be like for like in terms of fees in and out. We need to by a centre half though really. There's no way Konate is going another season without a long term injury, especially covering for Frimpong or Bradley.
Kelleher - £18m
Nunez - £50m
Diaz - £60m
Trent - £12m
£170m
I can't see us selling Quansah or Gomez unless we are signing a CB, so I'm guessing if we do that it will be like for like in terms of fees in and out. We need to by a centre half though really. There's no way Konate is going another season without a long term injury, especially covering for Frimpong or Bradley.
I don't overly want us to go for gordon, as i don't think he's quick or consistent enough. Plus i'd be reluctant to sell quansah as that means we then need to buy a CB, when we could possibly wait a year for that.
Villa might be reluctant to sell, but they need some money coming in. missing CL will hurt them quite a lot, especially if they plan to buy anyoen this summer. Last summer they were doing mad deals with chelsea to keep safe of PSR, i don't see this summer being different
It’s not irrelevant
Doak and Morton should comfortably fetch £30m, so that's £200m. Would probably leave enough room for a Diaz replacement.
Sadly think Villa will sell the likes of Ramsey and Watkins before Rogers.
It is unless we've got a desperate need to cover prior or current losses.
All it does is shift profits from later years to earlier years, it doesn't actually create extra profit.
I would have no concerns about PSR in the short to medium term. We have loads of capacity under the PL's rules, even after a comparatively bad year in 2023-24, and chances are the rules will change over the next few years to match the UEFA model (but with a more relaxed target).
The UEFA model would be more of a concern, but assuming we raise significant profits through player trading this summer then we will be fine for the next three years as the ratio calculates on a rolling 3-year average for player sales. Beyond that time frame, we will need to have a tight handle on our wage bill and drive revenues up (or make further, profitable player sales) to make sure we continue to meet the target ratio. Assuming the PL moves to the same model, then we won't be needing to manage under both systems and provided we meet UEFA targets we'll be fine for PL (which will be more generous).
The UEFA model would be more of a concern, but assuming we raise significant profits through player trading this summer then we will be fine for the next three years as the ratio calculates on a rolling 3-year average for player sales. Beyond that time frame, we will need to have a tight handle on our wage bill and drive revenues up (or make further, profitable player sales) to make sure we continue to meet the target ratio. Assuming the PL moves to the same model, then we won't be needing to manage under both systems and provided we meet UEFA targets we'll be fine for PL (which will be more generous).
As it happens I reckon we'd have got more out of him had we played him coming off the left (which is where he mostly played in Portugal, including when he gave us a lot of trouble) rather than as an out-and-out central striker. It was never going to happen though, not consistently anyway, because we had better options in that position.
Just on this "youth players are pure profit" line, that doesn't really work for the UEFA rules (which are more likely to be a constraint as the target measures are tougher). It's something of a fallacy that has leaked into the open, not been debunked and is now accepted as true. It remains true for Premier League PSR, for the time being, but under UEFA rules the opposite is true.
For example: you have 2 £50m-rated players. One is a kid with £0m on the books, the other is an established player with £20m on the books (say 2 years left on his deal). You will sell either one of them and buy a new £50m player to replace him.
KID
Profit up front £50m. Counts in full towards PL PSR (which isn't a worry), counts as 1/3 for next 3 years for UEFA rules. Impact on UEFA measures is 1/3 of the profit in years 1-3, £10m extra amortisation in years 4-5.
Yr 1 + £6.7m
Yr 2 + £6.7m
Yr 3 + £6.6m
Yr 4 - £10m
Yr 5 - £10m
Total = £nil across the five years
SENIOR PLAYER
Profit of £30m, £10m amortisation for 5 years on the new guy. Plus you save £20m amortisation on the player you sold in years 1-2.
Yr 1 £10m profit + £10m amortisation saved - £10m amortisation on new guy = £10m
Yr 2 £10m as above
Yr 3 £10m profit less £10m amortisation on new guy = £nil
Yr 4-5 £10m amortisation
Total = £nil across the five years.
Relative to selling the kid:
Yr 1 + £3.3m
Yr 2 + £3.3m
Yr 3 - £6.6m
Yr 4 £nil
Yr 5 £nil
Plus the kid is probably on lower wages so you'd make a wage saving from selling the senior pro to offset the costs of the new guy.
Upshot - in years 1-2 it makes FFP sense to sell the senior pro under UEFA's rules, then the benefit is reversed in year 3. It only makes sense to sell the kid for Premier League PSR and if you've got problems with that then you're in serious trouble.
For example: you have 2 £50m-rated players. One is a kid with £0m on the books, the other is an established player with £20m on the books (say 2 years left on his deal). You will sell either one of them and buy a new £50m player to replace him.
KID
Profit up front £50m. Counts in full towards PL PSR (which isn't a worry), counts as 1/3 for next 3 years for UEFA rules. Impact on UEFA measures is 1/3 of the profit in years 1-3, £10m extra amortisation in years 4-5.
Yr 1 + £6.7m
Yr 2 + £6.7m
Yr 3 + £6.6m
Yr 4 - £10m
Yr 5 - £10m
Total = £nil across the five years
SENIOR PLAYER
Profit of £30m, £10m amortisation for 5 years on the new guy. Plus you save £20m amortisation on the player you sold in years 1-2.
Yr 1 £10m profit + £10m amortisation saved - £10m amortisation on new guy = £10m
Yr 2 £10m as above
Yr 3 £10m profit less £10m amortisation on new guy = £nil
Yr 4-5 £10m amortisation
Total = £nil across the five years.
Relative to selling the kid:
Yr 1 + £3.3m
Yr 2 + £3.3m
Yr 3 - £6.6m
Yr 4 £nil
Yr 5 £nil
Plus the kid is probably on lower wages so you'd make a wage saving from selling the senior pro to offset the costs of the new guy.
Upshot - in years 1-2 it makes FFP sense to sell the senior pro under UEFA's rules, then the benefit is reversed in year 3. It only makes sense to sell the kid for Premier League PSR and if you've got problems with that then you're in serious trouble.
This was in regards to Elliott if he’s sold this season:
View: https://x.com/kieranmaguire/status/1929247388876603559?s=46
I think the biggest myth around the "pure profit" idea that the likes of @Hansern seem to believe is simply that it's extra profit. It's not, it's just a timing thing. That can be beneficial or detrimental depending on results over an extended period (which are themselves very unpredictable).
If you sell a youth player for 100m then you get all that as profit in year 1.
If you sell a guy with book value of 50m and 2 years left on his deal, you get 75m in year one and 25m in year 2 (amortisation foregone). Total still 100m just accelerated.
There's really no way of knowing from that example whether you want the extra 25m in year 1 or year 2. It just depends.
If you sell a youth player for 100m then you get all that as profit in year 1.
If you sell a guy with book value of 50m and 2 years left on his deal, you get 75m in year one and 25m in year 2 (amortisation foregone). Total still 100m just accelerated.
There's really no way of knowing from that example whether you want the extra 25m in year 1 or year 2. It just depends.
PSR = Premier League rules, which aren't an issue for us.
My point was that for UEFA rules it will be the opposite that is true, and they're the ones we need to focus on.
