Penalties ... the encore

[LeTallecWiz]

From some lad who wrote a letter to Footy365.com:

There has been great discussion recently about Liverpool's supposed luck with the referees and penalties. Some would have us think that either Liverpool have been very lucky, or there is a grand conspiracy designed to being the title back Anfield. I'm not sure either is true. Lets play Rafa and look at some facts.

First, what I'm calling "Penalty difference (PD)".

Liverpool: Awarded 12, conceded 4. PD = 8
Manchester City: Awarded ,7 conceded 1. PD = 6
Chelsea: Awarded 7, conceded 0. PD = 7

Not a huge amount between them.

Now, lets look historically at the highest number of penalties in the league. Where there was a tie, I've gone with the highest PD.

2012/13: Chelsea, 11 (penalty difference of 10)
2011/12: Manchester United, 11 (PD of 8)
2010/11: Manchester City, 9 (PD of 5)
2009/10: Chelsea, 12 (PD of 7)
2008/09: Manchester City, 7 (PD of 3)
2007/08: Tottenham, 7 (PD of 6)
2006/07: Arsenal, 10 (PD of 8)
2005/06: Crystal Palace (!), 12 (PD of 7)

So have Liverpool had an abnormal number of penalties? It's high, but not what you'd call statistically significant. Is their PD high? Yes, but again, it's not abnormal compared with what has gone before.

Why so many penalties? It's very simple, they play very attacking, very quick football. They force teams into making mistakes because they're terrified of what is coming at them. Teams that attack and score lots of goals will win penalties. From my memory (which may be rose tinted) I can't remember any outrageous penalty decisions given to Liverpool. They've mainly been stonewallers or "I've seen them given."

 

[nealmac]

You're correct. It's not overly high. I don't feel guilty in any way at all. As Neville says, the reason we've gotten more pens this season, is because we spend more time in the opposition's box this season than ever before. Statistically, it means our chances of winning a pen increase.

 

[hamstrung_pigeon]

How about own goals in favour of the champions? Didn't the Mancs have incredible luck with that one season, when O.G. (not Solskjaer) was their third highest goal contributor or something?

 

[Gerry_A_Trick]

How about own goals in favour of the champions? Didn't the Mancs have incredible luck with that one season, when O.G. (not Solskjaer) was their third highest goal contributor or something?

I'm not sure OGs are always luck too, you're bound to get a few if you put enough pressure on the defence.

 

[hamstrung_pigeon]

That is true.

 

[Mystic]

 

[kingjulian]

I think with the amount of chatter about referees favoring us this season, I wouldn't be surprised if the referees dick us in one of the games coming up.

I'm hoping that it is not against Chelsea...

 

[Frogfish]

I think with the amount of chatter about referees favoring us this season, I wouldn't be surprised if the referees dick us in one of the games coming up.

I'm hoping that it is not against Chelsea...

I don't think we'll see one given against us that isn't a stonewall or 'given more often than not', Refs are bound to feel like they don't want to be the Bad Boy that gets huge press from maybe costing us the title with a poor call.

However it's much easier for them not to give us a penalty, even when it's a very strong call, and with all the recent press about our penalties, and with Suarez & Studge's diving, it wouldn't surprise me if we don't get another penalty this season, at least not unless it's deffo stonewall.