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Suarez goal Scoring Predictions ?

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Fox

Fox

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Was it just a bad day at the office for Luis or is he a real concern when it comes to finishing consistently, at least he never hit the post

Can he be our main goal threat, what type of player is he people

He could be one of those scorers of great goals but not a consistent poacher or finisher.

We cannot afford a top Van P type man so can we rely on Luis, is he good enough to get 20+ goals a season for us.

I predict in PL for him this season 13 goals, you ?

worried about goals again FFS 🙁
 
16 goals, 12 assist, throw in some mesmerizing performances and some people will still want him sold.
 
He should be one of the wide players in a front three with a striker in the middle. So frustrating watching our 1 in 7 man miss 6. At least that means his first chance against Hearts will go in.
 
I do think he'll find his feet, we need someone to help him though. I worry he feels like it's all up to him to score and as such puts himself under more pressure.
 
He definitely needs a few chances before he scores one, I'd go with 15, usual dazzling stuff though.
 
Oh and im going for 25+ in all comps think he got 15 last season and considering it was a stop start season for him he will acheive this.
 
He'll sit 24 defenders on their arse before tamely sidefooting to the keeper.
He'll wriggle past 87 defenders before blasting the ball over the bar.

And he'll score some goals.
 
Suarez's game is a frenetic one. He plays it at 100mph. Twisting, turning, hustling, harrying.. which gets him into loads of scoring positions but isn't conducive to being an ice-cool finisher.

You compare a Suarez to an Owen/Torres and the calmness they exude in front of goal, and on the pitch in general, which help them when in front of goal.
 
I'm not sure how many he'll score, but there's no way he should be our main source of goals, especially when we're so bereft of attacking talent.

------------Good Striker---------
---Suarez------------Someone new.
 



Luis Suarez: 9 or 10?

This season, Liverpool have not won enough games because they have not scored enough goals. What started out as “one of those days” (Stoke away, 24 shots, 3 clear chances, 0 points), became a blip (Norwich home, 29 shots, 2 clear chances, 1 point), became a season-long malaise. By the time we played Blackburn at Anfield (27 shots, 5 clear chances, 1 point), there was little more than a resigned shrug from Liverpool fans.
Since the New Year there is no longer a debate about this Liverpool team. It doesn’t score enough goals and convert enough clear chances to take that step up to the Champions League places. The debate is now firmly focused on how to solve this. Fundamental to this debate is in which position and which system do you play your best player, Luis Suarez?
Do you play him as the central striker in a variation of 4-5-1 or do you play him with a partner in a variation of 4-4-1-1? Essentially do you play him as a “number 9” or a “number 10”? Or to put it another way, is he a great goal-scorer or a scorer of great goals?
So far, the debate has focused mainly on tactical opinion and the high-level evidence that he scored lots of goals for Ajax (81 in 110 games). It should also be noted that his international scoring record for Uruguay is a not-too-shabby 26 in 52 games (for comparison, Alan Shearer was 30 in 63 for England).
So far, so unhelpful. As a result, the debate has focused on why is his Liverpool goalscoring record so much worse than Ajax and Uruguay. All kinds of weird and wonderful theories have been floated, from him not trusting the players around him, to being a scruffy dribbler, to being worn-down by off-pitch issues.
Suarez at Ajax

Now, thanks to the good people at Infostrada we are finally ready to provide the data that takes the debate to the next level. They’ve kindly provided Suarez’s goals, assists and shot on/off target data for each of his five seasons in the Netherlands (including Groningen). The results are emphatic.
Let’s start by looking at his headline goals & assists per minute:

His best season with Ajax (09/10) saw him scoring at more than a goal a game. For the rest of his time at Ajax he was scoring twice as quickly as he is at Liverpool. That’s normal because as we all know from the English media, “it’s easier to score goals in the Eredivisie than it is in the Premier League”.
Now let’s dig a bit deeper and look at the frequency and volume of shots required to score:

If we think Suarez has a lot of shots playing for Liverpool (between 4 and 5 every game) this is nothing compared to his time at Ajax where it was every 14 minutes over four seasons (over six per match). In his best season this peaked at a shot every 11 minutes (over eight per match).
Where it starts to get really interesting is how efficient Suarez is at converting shots to goals. His best season in the Eredivisie was his first at Ajax in 07/08 where he scored with almost 16% of his shots (6.4 shots per goal).
At Groningen and seasons two and three at Ajax the conversion rate was around 12% and 8 shots per goal. In his final season at Ajax (post World Cup) and then Liverpool the conversion rate has almost halved to 7% and the shots per goal has shot up to about 14. In terms of efficiency, the current season for Liverpool is the worst of Suarez’s career. But again, this is “normal” because “it’s easier to score goals in the Netherlands than it is in England”.
Comparison to Rooney and Van Persie

Liverpool aspire to be a Champions League club and it is widely accepted that Suarez possesses sufficient quality to make that aspiration realistic and become the key attacking player at a Champions League club. In this case, it’s reasonable to compare Suarez’s time in the Eredivisie to the key attacking players of English clubs who’ve already been in the Champions League this season and are likely to be next season: namely Wayne Rooney and Robin Van Persie.
Thanks to EPL Index (Wesbite: http://www.eplindex.com/), Twitter:https://twitter.com/#!/EPLIndex) we can source the Opta data for the last four seasons.
First, let’s look at total goals and assists:

Here we can see very clearly that while Suarez at Ajax scored at a slightly better rate than Rooney or Van Persie, his rate at Liverpool after 33 full games is more than twice as bad.
With assists, Suarez at Ajax is significantly better than Van Persie but Suarez at Liverpool is again more than twice as bad (but this could be symptomatic of Liverpool’s wider inability to convert chances. Sadly we don’t have the chances created data at Ajax, only those chances that became assists)
Now dig deeper again and look at the frequency and volume of shots required to score:
Suarez4.png

This is the killer. Van Persie and Rooney both manage five shots per game in the Premier League over four seasons, compared to Suarez’s six at Ajax.
Yet, compared to Suarez at Ajax, Rooney needs one shot less to score a goal and Van Persie two less, all this in the supposedly “harder” Premier League.
If Suarez was a great goalscorer in the “easier” Eredivisie then over four seasons you would expect to see his numbers significantly better.
Once at Liverpool, Suarez has a shot at an almost identical frequency to Rooney yet he needs twice as many shots to score one goal.
In a nutshell, this boils down to Suarez and Rooney playing three Premier League games. In these three games they will both have 15 shots. However Rooney will score two goals in the three games and Suarez only one. Over a Premier League season this is roughly the equivalent of Rooney scoring 25 goals and Suarez 13 goals.
[PT: Of course, Suarez is just one year into his time in English football, whereas Rooney has been at Manchester United for eight seasons now, improving gradually over that time; before 2010, he'd only scored more than 14 league goals in a season once, and averaged a hardly-prolific 13 over his first five seasons. Equally, van Persie has recently gone from, at best, a goal every other game, to roughly a goal a game in the past year or so. Both players are older than Suarez.]
Penalties

A quick mention on penalties. During his time at Ajax, Suarez scored 18 penalties. Since 08/09 Rooney has scored 15 and Van Persie seven.
Without the actual details on penalties taken/scored, the approximate conversion rates excluding penalties are:

Now penalties have been excluded, Van Persie’s “shots per goal” is more than three fewer than Suarez at Ajax!
[PT: As roughly 70% of penalties are scored, if Suarez had taken all of Liverpool's penalties since arriving, and scored them at the average rate, he'd have more goals and a higher conversion rate from chances – as a penalty increases the chances of scoring from the 'normal' shot conversion rate of 5-15% to 70%. The problem is, he's taken one in the league, and one in the cup, and missed both.]
Conclusions

The analysis of Suarez’s Eredivisie data is fairly emphatic. We can draw three firm conclusions:
  1. Suarez is not yet an efficient goalscorer or a clinical finisher
  2. It is only Suarez’s volume of shots that enable his goalscoring record to look impressive
  3. Luis Suarez is a roaming, attacking number 10, not a goalscoring number 9.
At face value, Suarez appears to be a great goalscorer but this is probably not the case. The reality is that he is a forward who is heavily involved in his team’s attacking play but who is fundamentally wasteful.
So what does this mean for Liverpool going forward? Quite simply, that if the plan is to continue to rely on Suarez to be the primary goalscorer in the team then it will in all likelihood fail. Suarez will not be scoring enough goals for Liverpool to win enough games. Therefore the plan must be how to best utilise Suarez as a roaming 10 in a system where the primary goalscoring responsibility can be borne by others.
Looking back to his time in the Netherlands this seems obvious, as he spent most of his time not playing centre forward:
  • At Groningen he played mainly with Erik Nevland as one of two central strikers;
  • In his first season at Ajax Klaas Jan Huntelaar was CF;
  • In 2008/09, Huntelaar started as CF, Suarez played some games himself there and later Dario Cvitanich was CF;
  • In his most prolific season Suarez began at CF. Cvitanich or Pantelic played most matches at CF thereafter;
  • In his final season, Mounir el Hamdaoui was CF.
 
In short, he scored a ton of goals but needed a ton of chances.
His shots to goal percentage is way worse than in Holland and for Uruguay though, so hopefully he can improve.
 
what was his overall total last season ? 17 ? and if he wasn't suspended for 9 games he could easily have hit the 20 mark . I'm not sure it will happen this season but i reckon he's got a 25 goal season in him no problems.

Anyway , can anything be done to improve his finishing now ? I mean obviously so much of finishing is about natural ability and striking instinct but surely something can be done to help him improve .
 
15-18 in the PL and 25+ in all comps.

But I agree with the analysis JM posted above (and in fact I'd be surprised if anyone here ever held a different opinion so the stats are no surprise whatsoever) that he isn't a #9 and needs a #9 alongside him.
 
"Suarez is a fantastic player, but I don't know if he is a natural goalscorer, somebody like a Michael Owen," said Gary McAllister.

Liverpool missed several good chances at West Brom as Brendan Rodgers's first league game in charge ended in defeat.

"The players have got to put away the chances being created," former Reds midfielder McAllister told BBC Sport. "That was the big thing last year - an inability to put away chances when they were dominating games."

The forward scored 11 goals in 31 league outings last season and has 21 goals in 54 appearances since joining from Ajax in January 2011 for £22.7m.

McAllister said: "I can see him chipping in with a good amount of goals but is he somebody who is going to get 25 plus? I'm not so sure.

"But that's me being hyper-critical as he brings so many other things to the game, like linking play and his technical abilities are fantastic.

"Liverpool certainly have to be more clinical with their finishing. Looking back to last season, I can just picture a lot of openings where players were snatching at the chances or trying too hard when they just needed to let it happen.

Liverpool's attacking troubles
Shot conversion rate
  • 2011-2012: 9.13%
  • 2010-2011: 13.59%
  • 2009-2010: 13.32%
  • 2008-2009: 13.46%
  • 2007-2008: 12.52%
  • 2006-2007: 10.56%
  • 2005-2006: 10.59%
  • 2004-2005: 11.61%
Suarez'sconversion rate at Liverpool: 9.26%

Av conversion rate in PL 2011/12: 13.30%
Click to expand...
 
The problem is the same as last's years problem. We're completely reliant on Suarez for goals, so everyone hammers him when he's not scoring 30 and converting every chance he gets.

The issue is not Suarez, or his chance-conversion stats, it's that he's the only fucker we've got who scores goals.
 
Ryan said:
The issue is not Suarez, or his chance-conversion stats, it's that he's the only fucker we've got who scores goals.
Click to expand...

They're both issues.

Suarez missing chances consistently is a problem for the team. It couldn't be any more obvious.
 
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