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The Ev - how NOT to run a football club

Some thoughts on the Everton takeover rumours.

Firstly, the reported £400m bid doesn't make clear whether this is the price to be paid to Moshiri for his shares or whether it is the value of the business.
The distinction is important. A business valuation asks what the business is worth if it has no cash and no debt. Everton has not much of the former and quite a lot of the latter (over £1bn if you include the £447m still owed to Moshiri, which you should).
So if the £400m is the business valuation, then Moshiri will get nothing, as the £400m will be used to pay off other lenders in priority and there'll be nothing left for old Farhad, and there's even a risk the other lenders won't get paid in full (777 probably most as risk on that score). By contrast, if £400m is what they propose to pay for Moshiri's shares then there's a good chance they will also repay his debt and he will walk off into the sunset having got most of his money back - I reckon in that scenario he would "only" lose about £100m.
I think there's a good chance that the £400m is the worst of those two cases - that it's a business valuation. The reason for saying this is based on some comparable valuations. Firstly, Aston Villa's shareholder company recently did what is called an "impairment review" (basically a test to see whether the club is still worth what they paid for it) and they valued the business based on 2.5x it's turnover. A comparable calculation for Everton would value the business at £430m based on the revenue in their last accounts. And in the Forbes study of the top 30 most valuable football clubs, Everton were valued at $744m in 2023, since when things have got even worse. They don't feature in the 2024 study as it only values the top 30 clubs and they have dropped out of that list. The lowest valued club is $730m, so Forbes must think they are worth less than that, although how much less is hard to tell.

Secondly, it would be wrong for the fans to get too excited about "Saudi money" (but it would be right to be concerned about human rights records). That is unless City win their case about related party transactions. Because unless City win that case, new owners won't be able to pump loads of money in to sort out their squad as they will still be subject to PSR risk (and with the precedent that they have already been punished twice on that score). By contrast, if City win on APTs then the new owners could put all kinds of over-priced sponsorships in place as a way of pumping money in but still meeting PSR. I wouldn't be surprised on that score to see the takeover dragged out until the APT verdict is in. If I were Moshiri, I would delay the sale as I could drive a harder bargain if City win. For the record, they shouldn't, but they shouldn't have been let off by CAS either.

So the measured take on this would be that moving on from the chaotic Moshiri era would be good for the club, and they would hope that new owners would impose a measure of financial discipline and competent management of the business (much as I dislike him, I have to say Dacha has done a decent job on the football side of things).
But, as with Newcastle, a turnaround is going to take time and the fallout of the last few years of rampant mis-management is going to hang around for a while yet. And the PIF, buying into Newcastle, wasn't buying the kind of basket case that Everton represents right now. Newcastle was a club run on a tight budget and with accumulated capacity to spend a reasonable amount without troubling PSR. Obviously they spent to the max of their limits in that respect, hence the current rumours that they need to sell players.
And that's assuming this even goes through. This is Everton. Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory is a specialism.
I'm not sure Moshiri can delay the sale Beamy, he's clearly not putting his own money in and 777 were keeping the lights on by continually pumping money in to stave off Administration. Now their bid is doomed I'm not sure who else is going to be a mug to put money in without any sort of comeback. It's a god damn mess
 
I'm not sure Moshiri can delay the sale Beamy, he's clearly not putting his own money in and 777 were keeping the lights on by continually pumping money in to stave off Administration. Now their bid is doomed I'm not sure who else is going to be a mug to put money in without any sort of comeback. It's a god damn mess
They'll be OK for cash for a few months - they'll have year-end wash-up payments from the PL (not a great deal with finishing low down the league) but also season ticket money for next season, plus instalments on players they've sold in the last 2 seasons' summer windows. Should be fine for a bit. They'll probably also get some cash in for first instalments on Onana / Branthwaite / Prickford in the near future.
 
I'm reading that the Roma owner, Dan Friedkin, has got an agreement to buy Everton. He has exclusivity for the next 48 hours (thought it'd take a lot, lot lot longer than that)

Thomas Dan Friedkin is an American billionaire businessman, heir and film producer. He is the owner and CEO of The Friedkin Group and its subsidiary Gulf States Toyota, which was founded by his father, Thomas H. Friedkin.

So a relatively legit yank billionaire who can switch resources between Roma and Everton (one way traffic I'd assume!!!)
 
I'm reading that the Roma owner, Dan Friedkin, has got an agreement to buy Everton. He has exclusivity for the next 48 hours (thought it'd take a lot, lot lot longer than that)



So a relatively legit yank billionaire who can switch resources between Roma and Everton (one way traffic I'd assume!!!)
At least he won’t need to worry about Everton being in Europe as well as Roma.
 
  • Haha
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At least he won’t need to worry about Everton being in Europe as well as Roma.
Well not for the coming season but ....

This is the first sensible buyer so far. If I were an Ev fan ( :shudder: ) then I'd be VERY happy with this
 
Whoever takes them over is going to have a big job turning them around.
They got drunk on reckless spending on players a few years back and the hangover from that is going to last for years.
They need to:
1. Refinance the club's debt to an affordable, ideally interest-free block of debt to prevent future losses
2. Sell at least one of their least shit players before the end of June to minimise PSR risk for 2023-24
3. Get the new ground finished.
4. Prepare thoroughly for the operational challenges of moving to the new ground and maximise their revenue from ticketing / hospitality ahead of the 25-26 season.
5. Get a grip on their general financial management and discipline.
6. Grow their commercial revenue base.
They need to have a plan for all of that before they think about squad strengthening and longer-term ambitions. They've managed to rack up huge losses during a period when they haven't been booking their interest costs to the profit and loss account. Once the stadium is complete and in use, all of that interest cost will start to hit their bottom line, so they need to get that down before that happens. I'd expect the change of ownership to resolve that, but it will mean a personal investment from the new owner. Depreciation of the stadium won't be an issue as it can be added back.
And I don't see a way they can start to turn things around without one or more big-money sales, ideally in the next 2 weeks when it can help them on PSR for the season just ended. Even if they could get to a break-even position for 2024-25 (which will be a huge challenge) they'll still have whopping losses for the previous 2 years which will weigh them down and restrict their spending for PSR purposes. If they can plug those losses with profits on sale then they'll create some capacity to splash some cash, but it will still need to be modest and careful spending.
 
Whoever takes them over is going to have a big job turning them around.
They got drunk on reckless spending on players a few years back and the hangover from that is going to last for years.
They need to:
1. Refinance the club's debt to an affordable, ideally interest-free block of debt to prevent future losses
2. Sell at least one of their least shit players before the end of June to minimise PSR risk for 2023-24
3. Get the new ground finished.
4. Prepare thoroughly for the operational challenges of moving to the new ground and maximise their revenue from ticketing / hospitality ahead of the 25-26 season.
5. Get a grip on their general financial management and discipline.
6. Grow their commercial revenue base.
They need to have a plan for all of that before they think about squad strengthening and longer-term ambitions. They've managed to rack up huge losses during a period when they haven't been booking their interest costs to the profit and loss account. Once the stadium is complete and in use, all of that interest cost will start to hit their bottom line, so they need to get that down before that happens. I'd expect the change of ownership to resolve that, but it will mean a personal investment from the new owner. Depreciation of the stadium won't be an issue as it can be added back.
And I don't see a way they can start to turn things around without one or more big-money sales, ideally in the next 2 weeks when it can help them on PSR for the season just ended. Even if they could get to a break-even position for 2024-25 (which will be a huge challenge) they'll still have whopping losses for the previous 2 years which will weigh them down and restrict their spending for PSR purposes. If they can plug those losses with profits on sale then they'll create some capacity to splash some cash, but it will still need to be modest and careful spending.
Jon Stewart Popcorn GIF
 
Whoever takes them over is going to have a big job turning them around.
They got drunk on reckless spending on players a few years back and the hangover from that is going to last for years.
They need to:
1. Refinance the club's debt to an affordable, ideally interest-free block of debt to prevent future losses
2. Sell at least one of their least shit players before the end of June to minimise PSR risk for 2023-24
3. Get the new ground finished.
4. Prepare thoroughly for the operational challenges of moving to the new ground and maximise their revenue from ticketing / hospitality ahead of the 25-26 season.
5. Get a grip on their general financial management and discipline.
6. Grow their commercial revenue base.
They need to have a plan for all of that before they think about squad strengthening and longer-term ambitions. They've managed to rack up huge losses during a period when they haven't been booking their interest costs to the profit and loss account. Once the stadium is complete and in use, all of that interest cost will start to hit their bottom line, so they need to get that down before that happens. I'd expect the change of ownership to resolve that, but it will mean a personal investment from the new owner. Depreciation of the stadium won't be an issue as it can be added back.
And I don't see a way they can start to turn things around without one or more big-money sales, ideally in the next 2 weeks when it can help them on PSR for the season just ended. Even if they could get to a break-even position for 2024-25 (which will be a huge challenge) they'll still have whopping losses for the previous 2 years which will weigh them down and restrict their spending for PSR purposes. If they can plug those losses with profits on sale then they'll create some capacity to splash some cash, but it will still need to be modest and careful spending.

That’s a lot of highlight DVD’s they’re going to have to shift!!!!
 
Whoever takes them over is going to have a big job turning them around.
They got drunk on reckless spending on players a few years back and the hangover from that is going to last for years.
They need to:
1. Refinance the club's debt to an affordable, ideally interest-free block of debt to prevent future losses
2. Sell at least one of their least shit players before the end of June to minimise PSR risk for 2023-24
3. Get the new ground finished.
4. Prepare thoroughly for the operational challenges of moving to the new ground and maximise their revenue from ticketing / hospitality ahead of the 25-26 season.
5. Get a grip on their general financial management and discipline.
6. Grow their commercial revenue base.
They need to have a plan for all of that before they think about squad strengthening and longer-term ambitions. They've managed to rack up huge losses during a period when they haven't been booking their interest costs to the profit and loss account. Once the stadium is complete and in use, all of that interest cost will start to hit their bottom line, so they need to get that down before that happens. I'd expect the change of ownership to resolve that, but it will mean a personal investment from the new owner. Depreciation of the stadium won't be an issue as it can be added back.
And I don't see a way they can start to turn things around without one or more big-money sales, ideally in the next 2 weeks when it can help them on PSR for the season just ended. Even if they could get to a break-even position for 2024-25 (which will be a huge challenge) they'll still have whopping losses for the previous 2 years which will weigh them down and restrict their spending for PSR purposes. If they can plug those losses with profits on sale then they'll create some capacity to splash some cash, but it will still need to be modest and careful spending.
Did you attach your cv and salary expectations to that 😁😇
 
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