The race

[peterhague]

I think we can see now that this run from Bournemouth away to Newcastle home was always going to be brutal and is basically a statistical outlier from the rest of the season.

If we're still 7 ahead after it then yeah it's virtually over. Personally I don't think we will be though.

 

[localny]

I think we can see now that this run from Bournemouth away to Newcastle home was always going to be brutal and is basically a statistical outlier from the rest of the season.

If we're still 7 ahead after it then yeah it's virtually over. Personally I don't think we will be though.

We’re at home to Newcastle no?

 

[peterhague]

We’re at home to Newcastle no?

Sorry it's my terrible writing - I should've written "to Newcastle at home".

 

[MomoWASright]

UPDATE
To overcome the 7 points & +7 goals difference :

If we go W7 D3 L3 (only ca. 50% of our remaining matches) then Arsenal need to win a minimum of 10 matches : e.g W10-1-2 and a better GD.

If we go W7 D4 L2 then Arsenal need at least W10-2-1 and a better GD

If we go W8 D2 L3 then Arsenal need W11-0-2 or W10 D3 L0 and a better GD

If we go W8 D4 L1 then Arsenal need W11-2-0 and a better GD.

For the record (with extra pressure from the CL and cups) I can see us going something like AT WORST : W7 D4 L2 (assuming a home loss to Arsenal - even though I don't see it) which would mean Arsenal need W10 D2 L1 and a better GD.

We have scored 8 goals more than anyone else in the PL (us 60, City 52, Arsenal 51) and only Arsenal have conceded less (22 to our 24 with the next closest being Forest and Bournemouth on 29).

FWIW we are now between 2/7 and 2/9 on to win (strengthened a tad after the last 2 games) and Arsenal between 3/1 and 10/3 (also a tad stronger).

For OPTA it's only us and Arsenal and no-one else has any chance at all now. We are 87.7% and Arsenal 12.3%.

Win all our home games then beat Leicester and Chelsea away it’s done no matter what.

 

[Dreambeliever]

Win all our home games then beat Leicester and Chelsea away it’s done no matter what.

We showed today, winning all our home games is no easy achievement.

 

[MomoWASright]

I never said it would be but naturally you have a better chance of beating someone at home than away. It’s a way Anfield can play its part.

 

[localny]

I think we'll beat Villa and Newcastle, but City, likely to be a draw

 

[the count]

I think we'll beat Villa and Newcastle, but City, likely to be a draw

I'd snatch your hand off for that

 

[MomoWASright]

I'd snatch your hand off for that

Me too considering Arsenal face Forest who could cause them problems.

 

[localny]

I'd snatch your hand off for that

you Feckir!

 

[Fabio]

Me too considering Arsenal face Forest who could cause them problems.

Forest will roll over.

 

[MomoWASright]

Forest will roll over.

I can’t see that. They seem to struggle against teams that will let them have the ball. They could set up against Arsenal the way they set up against us. Forest also still have a European dream to keep alive.

 

[Squiggles]

I dont hold out much hope for West Ham at the Emirates, but pretty confident Arsenal will drop points against Forest.

 

[Atlas]

Was looking at Arsenal's upcoming games.

West ham, forest/manu away, before Chelsea.

Really hope they will lose some points and games there.

West ham/chel with the London Derby thing.
Forest hopefully can cause em prob
Manu up for the bigger games.

It's all wishful thinking, forest away I think will cause most issues.

I look cos
Villa, city, Newcastle will be very difficult games for us

 

[Atlas]

I take farkys earlier point about it's not just down to the stats re win/draw x games, it's much more the psychological. It's also down to who can pick themselves up the quickest when they inevitably lose points.

 

[darkstarexodus]

Was looking at Arsenal's upcoming games.

West ham, forest/manu away, before Chelsea.

Really hope they will lose some points and games there.

West ham/chel with the London Derby thing.
Forest hopefully can cause em prob
Manu up for the bigger games.

It's all wishful thinking, forest away I think will cause most issues.

I look cos
Villa, city, Newcastle will be very difficult games for us

Arsenal will get 9-10 points from those matches. They won't run it but they'll do well.

 

[Squiggles]

If a side can score 2 goals then they'll probably beat Arsenal. Easier said than done, because they are the best defensively, but they're not going to be scoring much. Newcastle collectively scrambled Salibas brain with high energy and intense pressing, and it showed the pathway to beating them. I hope Forrest, at home, will do similarly. They currently have a better attack than Arsenal so they just to be brave and commit.

I haven't seen much of West Ham, but results suggest there hasn't been a bounce since Potter took over. It would be a big surprise if they got something. They signed Fergusson in January on loan and if him Kudos, Bowen and Paqueta turn up than they can get a goal, I just don't think they're resilient enough to hold on under pressure for any great period. They're 16th for a reason - they've conceded 47 goals and they're shit.

 

[Frogfish]

 

[Frogfish]

 

[MomoWASright]

West Ham and Chelsea are harder than Brentford and Bournemouth?

I think we have the easier fixtures than they do.

 

[bluebell]

Arsenal have been ravaged by injuries, we just need to make sure we defend better. Our rightside, is our weakest link. If Trent can remember he is a defender first and we don't need his Hollywood balls when we are 2-0 up, so Konate doesn't have to cover his ass we should be able to clock up wins

 

[peterhague]

West Ham and Chelsea are harder than Brentford and Bournemouth?

I think we have the easier fixtures than they do.

I'd much rather play Bournemouth at home than Chelsea away. How often do we win there?

 

[MomoWASright]

How often do we play against a Chelsea side this rubbish?

 

[mark1975]

WTF do you mean 'don't be silly'. Put your brain into gear - all of those are facts not opinions. Bar me thinking our worst is likely W7 D4 L2 when we've gone W18 D6 L1 so far this season so it's possible we could go into meltdown but worse than 7-4-2?

An asteroid could also appear out of nowhere to obliterate us. Scotland could invade Blackpool. China + Russia could invade the USA to trigger a 3 way nuclear war. All are highly unlikely but could happen.

The mathematical scenario's are based on probability, Pat was rightly saying if we lose (say against Villa) we could go on a run of bad results. The Villa game is crucial again, because psychologically going to City with just a 4pt gap is a massive pressure. If we lose against Villa I would say Arsenal would be favourites, because we're suddenly in poor form and looking knackered with the CL to come and a big final against Newcastle. This is the "shit or bust" part of the title race. No amount of chalkboard theories can account for the psychological damage of one or two bad results from the games coming up. Arsenal have West Ham.

 

[peterhague]

The last 3 or 4 years I'd have thought. Don't think we've won there in that time.

 

[mark1975]

West Ham and Chelsea are harder than Brentford and Bournemouth?

I think we have the easier fixtures than they do.

We've got the more difficult away games. We have to play Villa, City, Chelsea, Fulham, Brighton and Leicester
They have Forest, United, Everton, Ipswich, us and Southampton.

That has the potential for a massive swing of points. Ok, so they have some tough games at home, but nothing they're not capable of getting points from. It's mostly teams who can batter anyone on home turf but that's about it.

 

[MomoWASright]

The last 3 or 4 years I'd have thought. Don't think we've won there in that time.

I had to go look. We’ve not lost there since 2018. The last defeat against Chelsea was March ‘21. Since then we’ve won 5 and drawn 5. 3 of those draws were our last 3 visits down there.

 

[MomoWASright]

We've got the more difficult away games. We have to play Villa, City, Chelsea, Fulham, Brighton and Leicester
They have Forest, United, Everton, Ipswich, us and Southampton.

That has the potential for a massive swing of points. Ok, so they have some tough games at home, but nothing they're not capable of getting points from. It's mostly teams who can batter anyone on home turf but that's about it.

I would be more worried about Fulham and Brighton than any of the others. By then Brighton could be on their normal end of season nothing to play for so no effort given.

Villa are in poor form and I’m not scared of City.

 

[peterhague]

I had to go look. We’ve not lost there since 2018. The last defeat against Chelsea was March ‘21. Since then we’ve won 5 and drawn 5. 3 of those draws were our last 3 visits down there.

I don't think we'll lose there. We've only lost once all season. Arsenal haven't lost in 15 games. But I'm definitely worried about drawing there.

Winning there is 50/50 at best.

 

[Frogfish]

The mathematical scenario's are based on probability, Pat was rightly saying if we lose (say against Villa) we could go on a run of bad results. The Villa game is crucial again, because psychologically going to City with just a 4pt gap is a massive pressure. If we lose against Villa I would say Arsenal would be favourites, because we're suddenly in poor form and looking knackered with the CL to come and a big final against Newcastle. This is the "shit or bust" part of the title race. No amount of chalkboard theories can account for the psychological damage of one or two bad results from the games coming up. Arsenal have West Ham.

That is the emotional fans' perspective. The facts given in the posts above are just that and the mathematical requirements are again indisputable.

Fans are also ignoring the fact we have multiple PL winners in the squad that have been in this race numerous times. This squad is not full of mental midgets. And that's even without considering that the Top 10 players in both squads have played almost exactly the same number fo minutes ... except that we have a full squad and they have numerous injuries to key players.

Then there is the fear factor of the name, Arsenal, just because they were very good last season. It's like before the season started and after 10-15 games some posters here were like "oooh City are capable of going on a 20 game winning run", whilst ignoring the factors influencing their early season form (change and aging of key personnel). Some posters here feel the same about Arsenal - that will go on a long winning run, whilst ignoring their performances & results up to now. They will also drop points in a few games.

Of course it could happen but saying "no amount of chalkboard theories can account for the psychological damage" is ignoring all the precedents of the PL era to imbue this race with the fans' mentality and 'PTSD'. The players aren't the fans.

Even a few hiccups shouldn't derail us : W7 D4 L2 (assuming a home loss to Arsenal - even though I don't see it) would mean Arsenal need W10 D2 L1 (which I also don't see them getting) and a better GD.