Succession planning, or lack of it

[tomasjj]

The succession planning at the club seems to be way off. What is happening?

Klopp loyalty showing itself as a lack of ruthlessness?
Klopp not having experience in dismantling an aging team?

The team is very old now compared to the others, and the playing style is demanding.
Paisley/Ferguson knew how to do this. Sometimes you need to put the old dogs down.


Is the poor succession planning part of the reason Edwards left? I read that there was a disagreement on Hendo's new contract - moving him on vs. a new 4 year contract. Klopp got his wish. At the time, I thought the contract was a bit long.

Klopp also admitted he was wrong about a midfielder needed. The fact that he didn't think we needed one is worrying in itself.


FSG being somewhat penny pincers again, as when we needed to get a replacement for Lovren and ended up with midfielders in defense?
We do have a high wage budget though. So we have rewarded current players, some quite aging, rather than moving them on.

And, we were hanging on much of last season, DIaz and Mane kept us afloat, so don't come dragging with the quadruple.
And while I am ranting, Klopp has been found out in two CL finals now, having his arse handed to him when facing an experienced manager and proper team, with his predictable ways. Can he adapt to another system, to fit the players he now has/their capacities?
Now is the time to show it.

 

[Holle]

Edwards left.

Nuff said.

 

[tomasjj]

Edwards left.

Nuff said.

Why, you reckon? Overruled? If so, should we be worried? Is that what we are seeing now?

 

[dmishra]

I'm not so sure Edwards leaving is so influential.

The scouting / recruitment team is pretty large and data driven, and most of the key figures like Ward, Fallows, Hunter etc. are still here. I don't think Edwards was the sort who cast a huge shadow, and that his departure has made our recruitment team dysfunctional. If anything, Ward has acquitted himself well in landing his targets - Diaz, Carvalho and Nunez deals were all completed quickly without much fuss.

The issue really is availability of money. I don't doubt for a second that our recruitment team can't identify targets or land them.

 

[King Binny]

I don't doubt for a second that our recruitment team can't identify targets or land them.

+1

 

[Markeh]

Imo it’s probably a combination - Klopp has been too pliable and loyal to players whilst the owners have been frugal to the point of stupidity. No idea on the recruitment problems, i can only guess money is a limiting factor there also.

I saw mention of a full XI of good players City have signed in the last 5 windows and they had a net spend of something like 180m in the last 4 windows where we spent 22m.

 

[dmishra]

Money is obviously the most important factor. We literally don't buy a player unless we can recoup like 60% through sales. That's been the standard pattern of our recruitment for the last several years. There really isn't much more to it.

That being the case, and player trading being so crucial, I think letting Can and Wijnaldum go for free was very wasteful. The pair could have netted us 40 million easily. Same problem with Firmino and Keita. SHould have sold them this summer for whatever little money we could have got. Clearly, every penny counts when it comes to our spending.

 

[LeTallecWiz]

 

[tomasjj]

I'm not so sure Edwards leaving is so influential.

The scouting / recruitment team is pretty large and data driven, and most of the key figures like Ward, Fallows, Hunter etc. are still here. I don't think Edwards was the sort who cast a huge shadow, and that his departure has made our recruitment team dysfunctional. If anything, Ward has acquitted himself well in landing his targets - Diaz, Carvalho and Nunez deals were all completed quickly without much fuss.

The issue really is availability of money. I don't doubt for a second that our recruitment team can't identify targets or land them.

Fair on the Edwards issue. But Klopp surely has to shoulder some of this?

 

[My_Blood_Bleeds_Red]

On paper we should have the spending power considering how you’ll never get a better time than this especially with the sterling and euro making historic lows against the dollar.

Yet our yanks are being incredibly miserly and cheapskate.

It’s usually an indicator that they could be accumulating to sell in the very near future.

 

[tomasjj]

Is it really just FSG being tight? The way we have managed our assets lately is not a shining example.
Free transfers out, expensive new contracts to aging players, not moving on deadwood/old horses.

 

[tomasjj]

Quite telling, Laporte is first choice still though.

 

[Markeh]

Not to suck Guardiola off but didn’t someone, possibly @King Binny post a video of Guardiola saying how you can’t compete with the same group for 5 years. I guess that image demonstrates his philosophy well.

Also the academy has produced fuck all in quite some time in terms of solid first team players.

 

[tomasjj]

Not to suck Guardiola off but didn’t someone, possibly @King Binny post a video of Guardiola saying how you can’t compete with the same group for 5 years. I guess that image demonstrates his philosophy well.

Also the academy has produced fuck all in quite some time in terms of solid first team players.

Did the young lads get a proper go though? Kind of a catch-22 that.
Elliott yes, but he is an attacking mid...not a box to box where he for some reason plays.

 

[Markeh]

Did the young lads get a proper go though? Kind of a catch-22 that.
Elliott yes, but he is an attacking mid...not a box to box where he for some reason plays.

Yea maybe chances weren’t there but look at what the rivals have done with youth

Martinelli, Smith Rowe, Saka
James, Mason Mount, Gallagher, Huddon-Odoi, Loftus cheek
McTominay, Rashford, Greenwood, Henderson
Foden

I’m getting bored listing them but other sides have easily saved themselves 100m with youngsters, that’s not helping with the FSG frugality.

 

[Markeh]

Kelleher has been decent, forgot about him

 

[dmishra]

Yea maybe chances weren’t there but look at what the rivals have done with youth

Martinelli, Smith Rowe, Saka
James, Mason Mount, Gallagher, Huddon-Odoi, Loftus cheek
McTominay, Rashford, Greenwood, Henderson
Foden

I’m getting bored listing them but other sides have easily saved themselves 100m with youngsters, that’s not helping with the FSG frugality.

I don't think our academy has been too bad.

Trent was a world-class product and crucial to our recent success.

Brewster, Hoever & Wilson generated 50 million in sales. That's not to be scoffed at.

Jury is out on Elliott, Jones and Kelleher. I don't know if they make it here, but should we go down that route, they'd generate 50 million easily as well.

City produced a gem with Foden and Arsenal with Saka and Martinelli. Reece James and Mason Mount are pretty good too. Not really sold on any of the others listed tbh.

Hopefully, we get something good with the likes of Bajcetic, Ben Doak, Cannonier, Gordon.

 

[Markeh]

I don't think our academy has been too bad.

Trent was a world-class product and crucial to our recent success.

Brewster, Hoever & Wilson generated 50 million in sales. That's not to be scoffed at.

Jury is out on Elliott, Jones and Kelleher. I don't know if they make it here, but should we go down that route, they'd generate 50 million easily as well.

City produced a gem with Foden and Arsenal with Saka and Martinelli. Reece James and Mason Mount are pretty good too. Not really sold on any of the others listed tbh.

Hopefully, we get something good with the likes of Bajcetic, Ben Doak, Cannonier, Gordon.

I’ve pretty much focused on the post Trent period and maybe that’s unfair but I reckon City, Chelsea, maybe Arsenal have all generated 50+ million in sales on top of producing first team players as well.

Hopefully something does come from the current crop but in recent years we may as well have been poaching players from other academies straight to our first team squad and not bothered with an academy.

 

[StevieM]

Average age of squad used in Premier League :
Arsenal : 23.7
Man City : 26.5
Man Utd : 26.5
Chelsea : 26.6
Spurs : 27
Liverpool : 27

That’s based on players used from TransferMarkt

https://www.transfermarkt.com/premier-league/altersschnitt/wettbewerb/GB1

It’s not exactly conclusive proof we’re “very old” compared to other teams and heading gleefully towards impending doom.

These states are misleading - if we let all players out of contract leave and replace them with all players currently on loan, we’d be one of the lowest aged squads - so easy fix and zero cost to fix that stat problem - without actually making the situations better.

It’s like when people say “we don’t have enough 23-27 year olds in the squad!!” - apart from Kelleher, Trent, Tsimikas, Gomez, Konate, Phillips, Keita, Diaz, Jota & Nunez….

 

[Frogfish]

That's VERY misleading though. 4 years ago none of our starting team needed replacing whereas both Kompany and Fernandinho were on their last leg(s) anyway. Zinchenko was sold because Cancelo is much better. Laporte (when not injured) is still in the starting XI and clearly an excellent CB and Ake's not fit to lace his boots.
Didn't Foden come through the youth system? Silva is still there (wasn't he their Player of the Season last year?) and Sterling is still virtually at the top of his game (and IMO still better than Mahrez). Jesus wasn't a 'First XI' player at any time. Haaland is the one that has made a HUGE difference this season.

On our side that Back Six are still all at or close to their prime (this is esp. so for CBs where 30 is prime). The front line succession is in play with Diaz a great replacement for Mane and with Nunez it remains to be seen, it's ridiculous to call him a failure after 8 games (when he hasn't started most - as Klopp said, gentle integration with both he and the team needing to get used to each other) but still a reasonable replacement for Bobby.

Clearly the issue is with the midfield, where we've been a bit unlucky, not only with injuries but also the failure of players we thought would prove to be good additions to the squad (Keita, Jones, Ox). Carvalho and Elliott are also both young but clearly not ready to take the big step up to regular starters yet. Add in Fabinho's & Salah's mystifying loss of form and that encapsulates our issues. I won't even bother to mention Trent !!

I still believe that the extended season (most games and the longest season of any team anywhere in the world) allied to the short Summer rest, is having a major impact and that this is borne out in the pressing and sprinting stats.

 

[Markeh]

Average age of squad used in Premier League :
Arsenal : 23.7
Man City : 26.5
Man Utd : 26.5
Chelsea : 26.6
Spurs : 27
Liverpool : 27

That’s based on players used from TransferMarkt

https://www.transfermarkt.com/premier-league/altersschnitt/wettbewerb/GB1

It’s not exactly conclusive proof we’re “very old” compared to other teams and heading gleefully towards impending doom.

These states are misleading - if we let all players out of contract leave and replace them with all players currently on loan, we’d be one of the lowest aged squads - so easy fix and zero cost to fix that stat problem - without actually making the situations better.

It’s like when people say “we don’t have enough 23-27 year olds in the squad!!” - apart from Kelleher, Trent, Tsimikas, Gomez, Konate, Phillips, Keita, Diaz, Jota & Nunez….

We’ve done ok addressing defence and attack but as i said in the midfield thread the composition of the midfield is a mess.

Only naby in that age range and the 3 that started on Saturday will be something like 33/32/30 when next season kicks off, how does that work with a pressing play style where we are expected to be competitive in every competition?

 

[keniget]

http://sixcrazyminutes.com/threads/the-squad-2-years-from-now.174165/

Die out and (if we're lucky) start again seems to be the case.

 

[dmishra]

Average age of squad used in Premier League :
Arsenal : 23.7
Man City : 26.5
Man Utd : 26.5
Chelsea : 26.6
Spurs : 27
Liverpool : 27

That’s based on players used from TransferMarkt

https://www.transfermarkt.com/premier-league/altersschnitt/wettbewerb/GB1

It’s not exactly conclusive proof we’re “very old” compared to other teams and heading gleefully towards impending doom.

These states are misleading - if we let all players out of contract leave and replace them with all players currently on loan, we’d be one of the lowest aged squads - so easy fix and zero cost to fix that stat problem - without actually making the situations better.

It’s like when people say “we don’t have enough 23-27 year olds in the squad!!” - apart from Kelleher, Trent, Tsimikas, Gomez, Konate, Phillips, Keita, Diaz, Jota & Nunez….

Even by that metric, we have the 3rd oldest average age in the league.

Also you're being disingenuous with your examples . Kelleher, Tsimikas, Gomez, Phillips, Keita are non-core players. Diaz, Jota, Konate and Nunez I accept, but Jota and Konate have been injured for most part of this season, and Nunez hasn't hit the ground running at all. That's part of the issue of course.

But the bigger issue is that we've been regularly playing Alisson, VVD, Matip, Henderson, Thiago, Salah, Firmino - that's 7 players of our regular starting XI who're now in their 30s. And Fabinho who is 29.

In fact, it's probably Elliott alone who's dragging that average age down.

 

[tomasjj]

You have drawn this into a numbers exercise.
Or are you with this point saying that we aren´t having issues with the squad growing old/with renewal?

Are we tip toeing around Klopp and what he could do/should do or not?

 

[tomasjj]

http://sixcrazyminutes.com/threads/the-squad-2-years-from-now.174165/

Die out and (if we're lucky) start again seems to be the case.

Yes, great post that. And now we are there - two years later.

 

[jan]

I’ve pretty much focused on the post Trent period

You're way out of focus then because Saka and Martinelli aside, everyone on your list is about the same age as Trent or older.

Probably should have included the talented Jesse Lingard too

 

[RedStar]

I made this point on another thread but to me there is fundamental misalignment between Klopp and FSG in their approach. FSG wants cash to be generated from sales circa 70% of transfers. This model means you have to be prepared to offload players when their values peak and the return is at a premium. This in turn allows you to reinvest into the playing squad for the next iteration of the team.
Klopp wants a consistent squad with minimal disruption and a focus on retaining players who are part of the established squad. This gives him stability and focus. This model means keeping players long term inflating the wage bill and then having a massive clearout at some point in the future to start over. When Klopp says he doesn't need more players what he means at least in part is he's not willing to lose any of his current players to fund it.

The problem is these two models are incompatible. Klopp is clearly keeping players past the point of their peak value, and also past the peak of their abikities, we are now seeing an aging squad decline in performance. But there are no major assets to sell to fund a rebuild. What happens in 2 years when this current team is flogged to death and we need to replace 5 or 6 first team players with really high caliber recruits.

Hendo, Milner, Thiago, Naby, Ox, Matip, Firmino, Virgil will all likely have to be replaced in the next 18 months.None of them will generate a substantial fee. Does anybody see FSG coming up with the £200-£300m required to do that?

 

[tomasjj]

Maybe they are looking to sell?

 

[Frogfish]

I made this point on another thread but to me there is fundamental misalignment between Klopp and FSG in their approach. FSG wants cash to be generated from sales circa 70% of transfers. This model means you have to be prepared to offload players when their values peak and the return is at a premium. This in turn allows you to reinvest into the playing squad for the next iteration of the team.
Klopp wants a consistent squad with minimal disruption and a focus on retaining players who are part of the established squad. This gives him stability and focus. This model means keeping players long term inflating the wage bill and then having a massive clearout at some point in the future to start over. When Klopp says he doesn't need more players what he means at least in part is he's not willing to lose any of his current players to fund it.

The problem is these two models are incompatible. Klopp is clearly keeping players past the point of their peak value, and also past the peak of their abikities, we are now seeing an aging squad decline in performance. But there are no major assets to sell to fund a rebuild. What happens in 2 years when this current team is flogged to death and we need to replace 5 or 6 first team players with really high caliber recruits.

Hendo, Milner, Thiago, Naby, Ox, Matip, Firmino, Virgil will all likely have to be replaced in the next 18 months.None of them will generate a substantial fee. Does anybody see FSG coming up with the £200-£300m required to do that?

Why on earth would we look to sell VvD !? CBs play to a high standard to late 30s now. He's golden (when he recovers form) for another 3-4 seasons at worst.

 

[Fabio]

We needed to invest heavily in midfield. We didn't. Now we play catch up in that part while other parts atrophy.

It's negligence