CL Sentiment

[Brizzle]

So the window is over, we leave January weaker than we started it.

It’s very tight between 4th and 10th - 6 points between 6 teams.

What do we think about chances of remaining a CL club next season?

Feels hard yards to me, probably a coin flip - which ironically is how every match feels.

Also one point for a different thread, our core 13 players are going to be knackered next season with no break in the summer.

 

[Hansern]

The window ends today, but for us it has probably ended..

 

[Frogfish]

I had a look through the remaining fixture lists for Us, United and Chelsea and it feels like we have the easier job (tough matches at Home etc.). Plus we play United (A), Chelsea (H) and Villa (A) in the last 4 games which could be advantageous (assuming we continue to improve and are out of the CL by then).

I can see Villa slipping back, making it a 4-way contest for 3 slots (99% certain there will be 5 CL slots for the PL). United have the advantage of only playing once a week (and are out of both cups). Chelsea (who are notoriously inconsistent) and Villa (smaller squad and one of the favs for the EL) could be those in most danger of missing out.

 

[Brizzle]

The problem with looking at fixtures is that is doesn't seem to matter who the opponent is to know whether we'll turn up or not.

I still think we should make it through, and the football romantic in me thinks we will do it via the CL in the most heroic of fashions.

 

[Dreambeliever]

We’ll win it and finish top 4 comfortably.

 

[moron]

The window is open still, am expecting a player who can fill at RB at least

 

[Mamma Mia]

We’ll win it and finish top 4 comfortably.

This. What would that mean in terms of how many English clubs qualify for next season?

 

[Gerry_A_Trick]

We'll be in the top five, with games to spare. Winning a CL is always a bit of luck, but I don't think we'll need to rely on it to qualify.

 

[Dreambeliever]

This. What would that mean in terms of how many English clubs qualify for next season?

Top 5 including us. The league only gets an extra spot is we finish say 6th and win it. 7 if Villa fell away and won the Europa.

 

[Hansern]

The problem with looking at fixtures is that is doesn't seem to matter who the opponent is to know whether we'll turn up or not.

I still think we should make it through, and the football romantic in me thinks we will do it via the CL in the most heroic of fashions.

If its close at the end of the season those 3 games on the stretch against Utd, Chelsea and Villa will be extremely nerve wrecking.

 

[peterhague]

It's 2 teams from 3, so we'll very likely do it considering we're the best one. Maybe something like 80% chance.

 

[dee]

This. What would that mean in terms of how many English clubs qualify for next season?

No impact.

The winners of the UCL and the EL qualify for the competition iregardless if they qualify via another route. If we won and came 6th hover, we'd get an additional place

 

[peterhague]

We’ll win it and finish top 4 comfortably.

Must be a very high chance of an English team winning it this year. Feels like we're entering a period of real dominance for the PL in Europe. I wouldn't rule out any of the 6 doing it.

 

[Hansern]

It will be 3 places and 4 teams I reckon. Villa are only 7 points ahead of us and given their injuries will most likely find themselves in a race to finish top 5. Anyone of Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool and Utd can finish 3rd with a bit of consistency.

 

[tombrown]

Must be a very high chance of an English team winning it this year. Feels like we're entering a period of real dominance for the PL in Europe. I wouldn't rule out any of the 6 doing it.

I think you can safely rule out any team from North London

 

[Richey]

4th place on average is around the 70 point mark or just under.

We're on 39 points. If we get about 30 points we'd probably be fine.

Problem is that even looking at those fixtures, given how we've been this season, there's a lot of games where we could easily drop points so I guess we'll have to see.

 

[Hansern]

30 points is 9 wins and 1 draw and 4 losses type scenario from the last 14 games. I can't see us managing that.

I can see us getting 25 points or something max. 7 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses. Will be tight, but the other teams around us are pretty inconsistent as well.

 

[Gerry_A_Trick]

I doubt 70 points will be needed for top 5, maybe 65.

 

[peterhague]

30 points is 9 wins and 1 draw and 4 losses type scenario from the last 14 games. I can't see us managing that.

I can see us getting 25 points or something max. 7 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses. Will be tight, but the other teams around us are pretty inconsistent as well.

There's such a thing as reversion to the mean you know. We've had a wildly inconsistent season including extreme bad luck and an historically bad 7-8 game run. But we're still probably the second or third best team in the league and now that the attack is clicking we're likely to do considerably better in the last 14 games than the first 24.

 

[Richey]

I doubt 70 points will be needed for top 5, maybe 65.

It's normally around that for 4th, give or take a few.

So yeah, 65 or so is probably okay for 5th.

 

[peterhague]

It's normally around that for 4th, give or take a few.

So yeah, 65 or so is probably okay for 5th.

Surely the common sense approach is to just say we're roughly level with Chelsea and Utd and need to beat one of them but not both. There are 14 games left so there can't be that much difference in terms of fixtures. We're better than both of them once spikes in form are accounted for.

 

[Hansern]

There's such a thing as reversion to the mean you know. We've had a wildly inconsistent season including extreme bad luck and an historically bad 7-8 game run. But we're still probably the second or third best team in the league and now that the attack is clicking we're likely to do considerably better in the last 14 games than the first 24.

With 1 win, 4 draws and 1 loss in our last 6 league games I'm not sure were the confidence for consistency comes from. If we win against City as well, then we can talk about it, maybe. But we need to string together some positive results first.

 

[Frogfish]

I had a look through the remaining fixture lists for Us, United and Chelsea and it feels like we have the easier job (tough matches at Home etc.). Plus we play United (A), Chelsea (H) and Villa (A) in the last 4 games which could be advantageous (assuming we continue to improve and are out of the CL by then).

I can see Villa slipping back, making it a 4-way contest for 3 slots (99% certain there will be 5 CL slots for the PL). United have the advantage of only playing once a week (and are out of both cups). Chelsea (who are notoriously inconsistent) and Villa (smaller squad and one of the favs for the EL) could be those in most danger of missing out.

To expand on that : Villa have lost almost their whole midfield with Kamara out for the season, McGinn out for an extended period, Watkins out, Tielemans out for an extended period. It's now Onana and Douglas Luiz, who they just signed. The loss to Brentford yesterday could be symptomatic.

 

[jexykrodic]

With 1 win, 4 draws and 1 loss in our last 6 league games I'm not sure were the confidence for consistency comes from. If we win against City as well, then we can talk about it, maybe. But we need to string together some positive results first.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

We may have turned a corner (without conceding 😀)

 

[peterhague]

With 1 win, 4 draws and 1 loss in our last 6 league games I'm not sure were the confidence for consistency comes from. If we win against City as well, then we can talk about it, maybe. But we need to string together some positive results first.

It's not rocket science is it. Anyone can see we've had a shitload of games recently where we've looked good and nearly scored loads but just missed chances or misplaced a final pass, and then conceded from one fucking chance or a last second punt or whatever.

Yeah the defence is dodgy cos the team is slightly unbalanced. And I don't think that's gonna get solved until the summer, at least not wholly. But Wirtz and Ekitike might well be the best front two in Europe right now, so there's every chance of just blowing teams away.

 

[Richey]

Surely the common sense approach is to just say we're roughly level with Chelsea and Utd and need to beat one of them but not both. There are 14 games left so there can't be that much difference in terms of fixtures. We're better than both of them once spikes in form are accounted for.

Yes, sure. Chances are our results will be pretty similar to theirs as they have been so far.

 

[Hansern]

It's not rocket science is it. Anyone can see we've had a shitload of games recently where we've looked good and nearly scored loads but just missed chances or misplaced a final pass, and then conceded from one fucking chance or a last second punt or whatever.

Yeah the defence is dodgy cos the team is slightly unbalanced. And I don't think that's gonna get solved until the summer, at least not wholly. But Wirtz and Ekitike might well be the best front two in Europe right now, so there's every chance of just blowing teams away.

No, it’s not rocket science. It’s more tarot cards and crystal ball predicting that we will suddenly go from 1,6 points per game to 2,1 for the last 14 games.

We have a great attack but the Burnley game could be the standard and not Newcastle.
A few more wins and points and then a prediction like that could make sense.

 

[Gerry_A_Trick]

Our current rate gets us to 62 points, and 65 should do it. We look, to me, on an upward curve in performances, so think we'd get there handily enough.

 

[Farkmaster]

Our current rate gets us to 62 points, and 65 should do it. We look, to me, on an upward curve in performances, so think we'd get there handily enough.

How do you define our current rate?

 

[Gerry_A_Trick]

How do you define our current rate?

The season so far. Obviously peaks and troughs in that.