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The PL Run-In : and how the CL, EL and FAC may affect the race.

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Frogfish

Frogfish

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I thought this was worth posting :

After 18 games it was
Arsenal - 40 points
Liverpool - 39 points
Aston Villa - 39 points
Manchester City - 37 points
Tottenham Hotspur - 36 points

After 28 games it is
Arsenal - 64 points
Liverpool - 64 points
Manchester City - 63 points

So, aside from the huge drop-off (as forecast) of Super-Ange and Villa, we have gained 1 point on Arsenal and City have gained 1 point on us and 2 on Arsenal in 10 matches, when we've been utterly depleted and lost at Arsenal. In that time (PL only) :

Liverpool : 8-1-1 (Arsenal L and City D)
Arsenal : 8-0-2 (West Ham L and Fulham L)
City : 8-2-0 (Chelsea D and Liverpool D)

Key Dates :

CL Quarterfinals - 9/10 and 16/17 April
1st leg just before Palace (A) for City and just after Villa (H) for Arsenal.
2nd leg just before Spurs (A) for City and Wolves (A) for Arsenal
CL Semifinals - 30 April/1 May and 7/8 May
City's games (if they make it) fall between Forest (A), Wolves (H) and Fulham (A) ... the next to last match of the season.
Arsenal's games (if they make it) fall between Spurs (A), Bournemouth (H), United (A) ... also their next to last match of the season.

FAC
Quarter-final - Saturday 16 March 2024
Semi-final - Saturday 20 April 2024
The Final - Saturday 25 May 2024

EL
Quarter-final second legs: 18 April
Semi-final first legs: 2 May (just before our home game to Spurs)
Semi-final second legs: 9 May (just before our away game at Villa)
Final: 22 May (after our last PL match)

Liverpool
We can now rest players for the EL return leg vs Sparta before the FAC match at United on the Sunday and have a manageable run-in with a potential FAC semi but hopefully not too sticky an EL ¼ final to come (it'll be a lot easier than the CL ¼ s and semis). We also now have Salah back, Konate not out for long, Jones, Gravenberch and Trent will be back after the International break, Allison mid-April and even Bajcetic is due back around the end of March. Last 10 matches? Forecast 8-2-0 (90 points), not sure where we'll drop points, I actually think we could/will win all 10, however if we drop points then maybe away at Villa and home to Spurs due to the EL semis?

Arsenal
I've also just been informed by an Arse fan that contrary to belief that they have plenty of rest between matches (being out of the FAC) they have a Chelsea match to rearrange and if Wolves beat Coventry then the PL match vs Wolves will be rearranged to April / May too. They will have a severe fixture congestion to add to their far far tougher run in. Last 10 matches? Forecast 6-3-1 (85 points)
So we want Arsenal to beat Porto (and draw Real, Bayern or City in the CL ¼ finals) and Wolves to beat Coventry in the FAC.

City
City are through to the CL ¼ s where we hope they will meet Real, Bayern or Arsenal. The semis will be tough too. In the PL their match vs Brighton has been postponed (due to the FAC) and if they win at home to Newcastle next Sunday, as they should, then their match against Spurs (A) will have to be postponed too. So a massive fixture congestion is on the horizon for them! Last 10 matches? Forecast 7-3-0 due to CL and FAC congestion, dropping points at home to Arsenal, away at Spurs and a shock either away at Fulham or home to Wolves which are both around the CL semi's games (87 points)
 
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Yes please. I'd like to order that set of results. Happy to trade options in Europa league and FA cup, if that helps?
 
Frogfish said:
I thought this was worth posting :

After 28 games it was
Arsenal - 40 points
Liverpool - 39 points
Aston Villa - 39 points
Manchester City - 37 points
Tottenham Hotspur - 36 points

After 38 games it is
Arsenal - 64 points
Liverpool - 64 points
Manchester City - 63 points

So, aside from the huge drop-off (as forecast) of Super-Ange and Villa, we have gained 1 point on Arsenal and City have gained 1 point on us and 2 on Arsenal in 10 matches, when we've been utterly depleted and lost at Arsenal. In that time (PL only) :

Liverpool : 8-1-1 (Arsenal L and City D)
Arsenal : 8-0-2 (West Ham L and Fulham L)
City : 8-2-0 (Chelsea D and Liverpool D)

Key Dates :

CL Quarterfinals - 9/10 and 16/17 April
1st leg just before Palace (A) for City and just after Villa (H) for Arsenal.
2nd leg just before Spurs (A) for City and Wolves (A) for Arsenal
CL Semifinals - 30 April/1 May and 7/8 May
City's games (if they make it) fall between Forest (A), Wolves (H) and Fulham (A) ... the next to last match of the season.
Arsenal's games (if they make it) fall between Spurs (A), Bournemouth (H), United (A) ... also their next to last match of the season.

FAC
Quarter-final - Saturday 16 March 2024
Semi-final - Saturday 20 April 2024
The Final - Saturday 25 May 2024

EL
Quarter-final second legs: 18 April
Semi-final first legs: 2 May (just before our home game to Spurs)
Semi-final second legs: 9 May (just before our away game at Villa)
Final: 22 May (after our last PL match)

Liverpool
We can now rest players for the EL return leg vs Sparta before the FAC match at United on the Sunday and have a manageable run-in with a potential FAC semi but hopefully not too sticky an EL ¼ final to come (it'll be a lot easier than the CL ¼ s and semis). We also now have Salah back, Konate not out for long, Jones, Gravenberch and Trent will be back after the International break, Allison mid-April and even Bajcetic is due back around the end of March. Last 10 matches? Forecast 8-2-0 (90 points), not sure where we'll drop points, I actually think we could/will win all 10, however if we drop points then maybe away at Villa and home to Spurs due to the EL semis?

Arsenal
I've also just been informed by an Arse fan that contrary to belief that they have plenty of rest between matches (being out of the FAC) they have a Chelsea match to rearrange and if Wolves beat Coventry then the PL match vs Wolves will be rearranged to April / May too. They will have a severe fixture congestion to add to their far far tougher run in. Last 10 matches? Forecast 6-3-1 (85 points)
So we want Arsenal to beat Porto (and draw Real, Bayern or City in the CL ¼ finals) and Wolves to beat Coventry in the FAC.

City
City are through to the CL ¼ s where we hope they will meet Real, Bayern or Arsenal. The semis will be tough too. In the PL their match vs Brighton has been postponed (due to the FAC) and if they win at home to Newcastle next Sunday, as they should, then their match against Spurs (A) will have to be postponed too. So a massive fixture congestion is on the horizon for them! Last 10 matches? Forecast 7-3-0 due to CL and FAC congestion, dropping points at home to Arsenal, away at Spurs and a shock either away at Fulham or home to Wolves which are both around the CL semi's games (87 points)
Click to expand...

Thanks for this. Villa still being in the conference league might be a leveller rest/fatigue wise for the teams playing them.

After the 31st we’ll truly know where we stand, both on congestion and league position after that Arsenal vs Cuty game.

The injury crisis subsiding after this break is good for allowing us to rest some key players in the EL.
 
It's simple.

We don't care what happens in the CL while we win the 3 trophies we're in.
 
It’ll probably positively help us win the league, but I’ve spent most of this season rueing the fact that we’re not in the Champions league this year.

We’re the best European cup team around and in brutal mentality monster form.. we’d have won the CL this year.
 
I guess just going by the fact that the other two have one VERY tough game left and we don't should probably mean we'll win it. Gonna be ridiculously tight though.
 
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Europa League QF potential opponents. The ties are currently:

Villareal (0-4) Marsille
Rangers (2-2) Benfica
West Ham (0-1) Freiburg
Slavia Prague (2-4) Milan
Liverpool (5-1) Sparta Prague
Brighton (0-4) Roma
Atalanta (1-1) Sporting Lisbon
Leverkusen (2-2) Qarabag

Two ties are too close to call. Looking at the possible list of quarter-finalists it seems obvious Liverpool and Leverkusen are the stand out favourites. I wouldn't fancy either of the Italian teams but avoiding Leverkeusen would be best
 
Dreambeliever said:
I can see final day heartbreak again 🙁
Click to expand...
b278a5a006340b8946457552adec56c5.gif
 
Arsenal seem to have the easiest run in. We have the toughest. Utd away, Everton away, Villa away...
 
keniget said:
Arsenal seem to have the easiest run in. We have the toughest. Utd away, Everton away, Villa away...
Click to expand...
They do?

Is Utd Everton and Villa away tougher than City Spurs and Brighton away? Nevermind having to play Villa and Chelsea at home and also having to play Utd away themselves....
 
binomial said:
They do?

Is Utd Everton and Villa away tougher than City Spurs and Brighton away? Nevermind having to play Villa and Chelsea at home and also having to play Utd away themselves....
Click to expand...

Yeah, I was confusing City's games with theirs. City have the easiest run in.
 
Buddha said:
It’ll probably positively help us win the league, but I’ve spent most of this season rueing the fact that we’re not in the Champions league this year.

We’re the best European cup team around and in brutal mentality monster form.. we’d have won the CL this year.
Click to expand...
We could have comfortably taken on teams like Real Madrid, Bayern, PSG in the CL in this season.
 
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When is the Everton match rescheduled. I wouldn't want to play Everton away on the last match of the season needing us a win to take the league. These guys would throw in everything to frustrate us. From time wasting, to nasty tackles, tactically fouls, you name it.
 
Champ said:
When is the Everton match rescheduled. I wouldn't want to play Everton away on the last match of the season needing us a win to take the league. These guys would throw in everything to frustrate us. From time wasting, to nasty tackles, tactically fouls, you name it.
Click to expand...
I doubt we will get a date until after the United game as we will need to know what we are committed to; Europa League and, hopefully, FA Cup QFs
 
If Arsenal drop points against City i think they might crumble. Arteta possibly thinks he can only focus on the PL or CL, ideal scenario for us is draw against City, then ultimately drop out of the title race prioritising Europe.

I’m still worried we are going to try and fight on all fronts, but i really think we can go all the way.
 
Weird injury.

Left leg hit Nunez but injury was right leg.

Let's see how they get on if a missing #1.
 
Squiggles said:
Ederson confirmed out for four weeks.

Misses Arsenal game.
Click to expand...
Yeah I don't know how to react to that. I mean the best result for us would be a draw. Doesn't that injury help Arsenal?
Or do we want Arsenal to win?
 
Modo said:
Yeah I don't know how to react to that. I mean the best result for us would be a draw. Doesn't that injury help Arsenal?
Or do we want Arsenal to win?
Click to expand...

If we beat Brighton earlier that day it’s a 2 point lead if it’s a draw so I’m opting for that
 
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