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Football Finance

PT5

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Unspoken above about United’s operating cashflow was the fact the £620.9million cash in through the door between 2019 and 2025 was almost half the £1.112bn they generated in the prior six-year period. The club spent heavily on transfers then too, £660.7m, but still managed to build up a hefty pile of cash. The growth in wages as a proportion of revenue, alongside other cost growth, flatlining income and even greater spending on transfers has driven United’s cash squeeze.

A further recent drain on cash has been increased infrastructure activity. The state of the Old Trafford roof drew much attention a year ago, but United have at least started spending more on improvements: an average of £11.6million a season over the past three years, against £5.8m per season over the previous decade.

More substantial has been investment at Carrington, United’s training ground, which a chunk of the money from Ratcliffe was earmarked for — £42.7m went into works there last season, to go alongside £13m in the previous two years; a further £13.3m in capital works were contracted at the end of June, albeit how much of that related to Carrington isn’t known. Lower capital spending in 2025-26 will aid United’s cash position.


United’s financial revival still has a way to go. Transfer payables are growing rather than reducing, likewise broader debt. Annual interest payments on the latter are sneaking back up to the £40million mark.

Yet there has been a clear impact from the choices taken over the past two years. The wage bill is down and, before interest and exceptional costs relating to restructuring both outside and inside the manager’s dugout, they were in the black for the first time in five years.

More reductions will come: United have incurred substantial costs in reducing the workforce; future years will see savings without the offsetting hit of redundancy packages. If Amorim can build on the weekend’s win against Sunderland, there might be no need to incur further managerial costs.

Significant player departures loom, even if they won’t command fees when they go. In Casemiro, Jadon Sancho, Harry Maguire and Tyrell Malacia, United have a quartet of contracts expiring next June which, after including employer costs on top, would comprise wage savings not far shy of £1million a week. Around 80 per cent of Sancho’s pay this season is at least being covered by Aston Villa during his loan there, while Rasmus Hojlund’s good start having been similarly borrowed by Napoli enhances the likelihood of that move being made permanent for €44m (£38.3m; $51.3m at current rates).

Higher debt is a concern, but conversely shows growing confidence in United’s finances. The club consolidated their existing RCFs into one bigger facility, and in doing so reduced the interest rate on short-term borrowings. The level of those borrowings means interest could nominally be up in 2025-26, but lower than if the consolidation hadn’t taken place.

That interest remains a burden — more now than ever, given costs elsewhere. Cash interest payments of £853million have been made since the Glazers arrived. It is simply accepted as a cost of living for United now. Fixing underlying operations has taken priority over debt reduction.

Doing the former will prove easier if results on the field improve. United’s wage bill now sits well behind those of peers, a situation which naturally makes it harder to compete. Hefty transfer spending is the apparent offset, and looks a bold strategy; the correlation of wages to performance is much stronger, though there’s evidence that patience pays off for big transfer spenders.

How much patience United can afford is unknown, however. Each season out of the Champions League will make it harder to catch up to their rivals. And all of this is without even mentioning a new Old Trafford, which would cost over £1billion to build. Funding that will be easier with the revenues playing in Europe’s top club competition brings, but returning to UEFA’s top table will require much better use of resources.

Overall, the picture for United is a mixed one.

There are obvious improvements, and a clear, if brutal, plan has been implemented to fix a club whose finances had been allowed to reach a parlous state. In the short term, United can breathe a little easier, even with higher debt. But getting it right on the pitch is now of utmost importance.

Ratcliffe and his INEOS empire provided a lot of necessary funds last year, but a recent halting of dividends in the latter’s wider business doesn’t point to a likelihood United will be able to tap more owner funding any time soon.

United’s fortunes off the field will be driven by those on it.
 
This is a good read for anyone who is interested and has the time to spend on it. Thankfully, the conclusions are pretty similar to the ones I posted here a few weeks ago, albeit this has more detail, pretty graphs and numbers for the geeks.
Thanks @737Max for sharing.
The key thing this writer points out that I hadn't thought about is the correlation between (player) wages and success. Whilst noting higher wages doesn't mean guaranteed success, the writer points out that while their cost-cutting is a good thing for their finances, it undermines their ability to compete on the field. It's a good point and well-made. And if borne out, it means they will likely struggle to get back to consistent on-field success.
 

Premier League clubs to vote on controversial ‘salary cap’ next month​

Proposal would limit spending on wages and transfers to five times amount paid in prize money and broadcast revenue to bottom club — but Manchester clubs oppose it.

The Premier League could agree to what some opponents view as a salary cap as early as next month, with a vote on “anchoring” scheduled for the November shareholders’ meeting despite concerns from several clubs.
Both Manchester United and Manchester City are known to oppose a proposal that would limit spending on wages and transfers to five times the amount paid by the Premier League in prize money and broadcast revenue to the club who finish bottom. Based on the 2023-24 season, when Sheffield United occupied 20th place and received £109.5million, that would be £550million.

In March last year, The Times revealed the plans to explore anchoring, with clubs voting on the issue. While 16 were in favour, United, City and Aston Villa voted against even looking at it as an option for controlling spending (Chelsea abstained) amid concerns that such a policy could hamper their ability to remain competitive and have a negative impact on the Premier League’s status as the strongest domestic competition in Europe.

They cite the fact that their European rivals are limited only by Uefa’s “squad cost ratio” rules, which are being implemented over several seasons and aim to reduce spending to 70 per cent of revenue.
It is estimated, however, that for a club such as Real Madrid it would still be possible to spend in excess of £700million, given the revenue injection that has been provided by their new stadium expansion. The Premier League’s proposed new squad cost ratio rules would be set at 85 per cent of revenue, with the idea to run anchoring alongside them.
Premier League clubs operate under Profitability and Sustainability Rules (PSR) which allow losses of £105million over three years, but they are scheduled to vote on proposed new financial regulations when they meet towards the end of November. This will be divided into three parts — squad cost ratio rules, anchoring and sustainability rules linked to football’s new independent regulator.
“If we bring in these anchoring rules, it could dramatically affect the Premier League’s ability to attract the world’s best players,” said one senior club insider. “How can that be in the best interest of English football?”


The Times understands that clubs have been issued with a 25-page draft of proposed new rules for anchoring, which are likely to be updated before the next Premier League meeting on November 21 but already raise concerns that some clubs could immediately be in breach based on estimated spending figures.

Within the new proposed rules the Premier League has detailed possible sanctions for future breaches, which some clubs also consider a concern. This would entail a minimum six-point deduction plus a point for every £6.5million of overspend. One example given to clubs estimated that a club could spend 68.8 per cent of their revenue on football cost, therefore comfortably falling within the present 85 per cent limit on “squad cost ratio”, yet face a 28-point deduction.
The Professional Footballers’ Association is known to be considering legal action, sparked by fears of the impact anchoring could have on player wages. At last month’s Premier League meeting, clubs were told that a vote for anchoring could lead to yet more litigation for an organisation already embroiled in a number of legal battles with its shareholders.

Even so, there is concern that opposition to anchoring is limited, even if some clubs regard the system being used in the Championship as an inevitable consequence. “Many clubs don’t have a particularly strong view on this issue because they don’t think it will affect them given their current spending levels,” said one senior club source. “It feels like we are actually sleepwalking into this.”

Those in favour argue that anchoring would actually protect the competitiveness of the Premier League, which they say is what makes it attractive to broadcasters and therefore secures those multibillion-pound deals. With the elite clubs now securing extra revenue from competitions such as Fifa’s World Club Championship, they suggest the need for something like anchoring has never been greater.
Sir Jim Ratcliffe, the co-owner of Manchester United and one of Britain’s richest people, does not agree, and has already voiced his public opposition to anchoring at a time when he is looking to increase the revenue at Old Trafford by building a new 100,000-seater stadium. He has said it “would inhibit the top clubs in the Premier League”.

“The last thing you want is for the top clubs in the Premier League not to be able to compete with Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, PSG — that’s absurd. And if it does, it then ceases to be the finest league in the world,” Ratcliffe said.
Those on Ratcliffe’s side of the argument point to the fact that four different teams have become champions in the past decade, adding that five of Manchester City’s eight titles have been secured on the final day of the season. They also cite the fact that the club with the highest outlay on wages have won the title in only three of the past ten seasons.
They are also convinced it would lead to the EFL following suit, with a similar anchor limiting them to a £40million cap based on 2023-24 figures.

 
I'm inclined to support the concept of anchoring. Although I'm inclined away from points deductions and more towards luxury tax style punishments. In my world, these fines would either be paid to fans (via reduced ticket prices or rebates on merch sales etc.) or added to the media pot paid out to the other clubs, with those at the bottom getting bigger shares to improve competition.

It's interesting to look at the parties that don't support it:

CITY / UNITED
Fuck them. If they oppose it, it's almost certainly a good thing.
LOWER LEAGUE CLUBS
"We demand the right to massively over-spend (relative to our income) on transfers and player wages, and we expect the Premier League clubs to bail us out". Far too many lower league clubs are reckless in their spending and need to rein it in - the wage to turnover ratios in the Football League are insane. I totally agree with the principle that money should trickle down from the top leagues down as far as the grass roots, but the quid pro quo is for those less wealthy clubs to run themselves responsibly. Many don't.
PFA
"We demand that our players and agents should be able to fleece top clubs for outrageous levels of pay and we don't give a shit if they bankrupt themselves / distort competition in the process". Great take, lads. Now back in your box and go back to protecting the kids who are being exploited in the game, rather than the top pros who don't need you to fight their battles. They already get paid way too much, read the room.
BIG CLUBS (AND WANNABES)
"If we don't pay huge wages to our players they'll all go to Madrid / Barca / PSG / Saudi". Lads, they're going there anyway, and believe it or not there's only so many players that those clubs need to sign. Harry Kane didn't go to Bayern (just) for money, he wanted to win shit. Trent thinks he's going to be a legend in Madrid. South Americans are drawn to Spain. And hey Sir Big Sir Jim, how many players did you actually poach from under the noses of Madrid/ Barca / PSG / Bayern? The mercenary types are drawn to Saudi. There comes a point when you have to accept they're going to go, get what you can in fees for them and hope it turns to shit so badly that whoever is left behind will think twice about following them.

The case for anchoring as I see it is beneficial both for English clubs and for the wider game. Premier League spending this summer, relative to Europe, has been wild, and loads of clubs are sitting on huge levels of transfer debt and player wages as a result. Sellers know they can ramp up the prices. When Houllier was manager, he'd spend £5m on a speculative buy. You're looking at £30-40m for those kinds of players now, and that figure doesn't stop going up if clubs can keep affording it. So it's time to turn down the heat. Sure it's a bummer for the selling clubs, but they'll cope without super profits and they'll be able to compete better for established talent if prices across the market start to come down. Anchoring won't stop the inflation entirely, but picture a scenario:

Big team wants a player but can't afford them because they're already spent to the anchoring max. One of two things happens:

1. Selling club gets real about the price because no-one will pay what they want (less drain out of the clubs, better sustainability); or
2. Club from next tier down can afford the player because they have anchoring capacity and the PL spending constraints will allow it (where perhaps European rules would not).

In scenario 1, clubs don't need to sell their souls to iffy sponsors / fleece their fans / sell talented young players to balance their budgets. Sure, the Uniteds of the world will return surplus money to shareholders but a lot of them won't (or maybe United will realise they have to pay for that awful new stadium from their own money). Clubs will invest in infrastructure and building themselves up, they'll pay off the debt that threatens their long-term future. Some will cave to fan pressure to reduce ticket prices, or to freeze them for a good while.

In scenario 2, the league becomes more competitive. Sure, that's not necessarily a good thing for us as it means reduced dominance, but being objective about it, the league as a whole becomes more entertaining, plus more attractive to players than foreign leagues where one or two clubs rule the roost. Honestly, it won't do the big clubs any harm to not get exactly what they want for a bit.

And fewer clubs go bust.

And more broadly, if the top clubs insist on spending more, they have to give the smaller clubs a bigger piece of the media pie so they can increase their spending limits. That's also good for competition.

And if it works here, I hope UEFA roll it into their rules too, to bring Madrid et al to heel (e.g. clubs can only enter UEFA comps if their national associations do something similar to the PL).

I hope it gets approved.

But more honestly I expect years of arguments about competition law before it all gets rolled back.
 
I'm inclined to support the concept of anchoring. Although I'm inclined away from points deductions and more towards luxury tax style punishments. In my world, these fines would either be paid to fans (via reduced ticket prices or rebates on merch sales etc.) or added to the media pot paid out to the other clubs, with those at the bottom getting bigger shares to improve competition.

It's interesting to look at the parties that don't support it:

CITY / UNITED
Fuck them. If they oppose it, it's almost certainly a good thing.
LOWER LEAGUE CLUBS
"We demand the right to massively over-spend (relative to our income) on transfers and player wages, and we expect the Premier League clubs to bail us out". Far too many lower league clubs are reckless in their spending and need to rein it in - the wage to turnover ratios in the Football League are insane. I totally agree with the principle that money should trickle down from the top leagues down as far as the grass roots, but the quid pro quo is for those less wealthy clubs to run themselves responsibly. Many don't.
PFA
"We demand that our players and agents should be able to fleece top clubs for outrageous levels of pay and we don't give a shit if they bankrupt themselves / distort competition in the process". Great take, lads. Now back in your box and go back to protecting the kids who are being exploited in the game, rather than the top pros who don't need you to fight their battles. They already get paid way too much, read the room.
BIG CLUBS (AND WANNABES)
"If we don't pay huge wages to our players they'll all go to Madrid / Barca / PSG / Saudi". Lads, they're going there anyway, and believe it or not there's only so many players that those clubs need to sign. Harry Kane didn't go to Bayern (just) for money, he wanted to win shit. Trent thinks he's going to be a legend in Madrid. South Americans are drawn to Spain. And hey Sir Big Sir Jim, how many players did you actually poach from under the noses of Madrid/ Barca / PSG / Bayern? The mercenary types are drawn to Saudi. There comes a point when you have to accept they're going to go, get what you can in fees for them and hope it turns to shit so badly that whoever is left behind will think twice about following them.

The case for anchoring as I see it is beneficial both for English clubs and for the wider game. Premier League spending this summer, relative to Europe, has been wild, and loads of clubs are sitting on huge levels of transfer debt and player wages as a result. Sellers know they can ramp up the prices. When Houllier was manager, he'd spend £5m on a speculative buy. You're looking at £30-40m for those kinds of players now, and that figure doesn't stop going up if clubs can keep affording it. So it's time to turn down the heat. Sure it's a bummer for the selling clubs, but they'll cope without super profits and they'll be able to compete better for established talent if prices across the market start to come down. Anchoring won't stop the inflation entirely, but picture a scenario:

Big team wants a player but can't afford them because they're already spent to the anchoring max. One of two things happens:

1. Selling club gets real about the price because no-one will pay what they want (less drain out of the clubs, better sustainability); or
2. Club from next tier down can afford the player because they have anchoring capacity and the PL spending constraints will allow it (where perhaps European rules would not).

In scenario 1, clubs don't need to sell their souls to iffy sponsors / fleece their fans / sell talented young players to balance their budgets. Sure, the Uniteds of the world will return surplus money to shareholders but a lot of them won't (or maybe United will realise they have to pay for that awful new stadium from their own money). Clubs will invest in infrastructure and building themselves up, they'll pay off the debt that threatens their long-term future. Some will cave to fan pressure to reduce ticket prices, or to freeze them for a good while.

In scenario 2, the league becomes more competitive. Sure, that's not necessarily a good thing for us as it means reduced dominance, but being objective about it, the league as a whole becomes more entertaining, plus more attractive to players than foreign leagues where one or two clubs rule the roost. Honestly, it won't do the big clubs any harm to not get exactly what they want for a bit.

And fewer clubs go bust.

And more broadly, if the top clubs insist on spending more, they have to give the smaller clubs a bigger piece of the media pie so they can increase their spending limits. That's also good for competition.

And if it works here, I hope UEFA roll it into their rules too, to bring Madrid et al to heel (e.g. clubs can only enter UEFA comps if their national associations do something similar to the PL).

I hope it gets approved.

But more honestly I expect years of arguments about competition law before it all gets rolled back.

Good analysis.

I'm completely on board with a luxury tax, as I've suggested for quite a while. A points deduction is silly and would actually detract from the top level competitiveness in Europe and the transfer market for the best clubs.
 
As always, it’s difficult to know what is idle speculation, but there is once again some press chatter that 115/130 is on the verge of announcement. More interestingly, one source is saying he’s hearing rumours that City are preparing to launch “an appeal” which means they lost, and the Manc blow-hard Stefan Bodson is insisting that he’d always said that the longer it took for a decision to come out, the more likely it would be a bad result for City. I’ve never heard him say that, although I agree and said so here about a month ago.
Fingers crossed, but I’ve always thought it will land in an international break so we may have another month to wait at least…
 
As always, it’s difficult to know what is idle speculation, but there is once again some press chatter that 115/130 is on the verge of announcement. More interestingly, one source is saying he’s hearing rumours that City are preparing to launch “an appeal” which means they lost, and the Manc blow-hard Stefan Bodson is insisting that he’d always said that the longer it took for a decision to come out, the more likely it would be a bad result for City. I’ve never heard him say that, although I agree and said so here about a month ago.
Fingers crossed, but I’ve always thought it will land in an international break so we may have another month to wait at least…
I think he said something like that on Talksport at some point?
But yes, fingers crossed!
 
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