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Liverpool braced for statistical revolution

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[quote author=Ryan link=topic=42845.msg1222112#msg1222112 date=1290393236]
[quote author=Brendan link=topic=42845.msg1221317#msg1221317 date=1290262373]
Lucarse is the ideal player to discern whether or not you're talking to a football fan, or an armchair superfan SQUAWK cunt

Not one person I know, like or respect thinks Lucas is any good. Most think he's a cunt, and don't even bother talking about 'game intelligence', mainly because they're not twats


[/quote]

Where does Danny "10 times better than Lucas will ever be" Guthrie fit into that conversation though? Would you mind clearing that up for us "superfan SQUAWK cunts"?
[/quote]

about the same level as hayden mullins 😉
 
[quote author=Binny link=topic=42845.msg1232455#msg1232455 date=1292151375]
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-1337817/Kenny-Dalglish-Mancinis-Manchester-City-prove-defence-come-first.html

Genius has no need for stats

Clubs spend thousands on Prozone, Opta stats and the like but I’ve never seen a better bit of football tech than the eyes and ears of Bob Paisley.

He was a genius who could compute any footballing problem and invariably come up with the right answer.

Players now are reputed to have the best scientific and medical advice available but still seem to spend longer on the treatment table than ever. Bob, through his experience and instinct, seemed to judge exactly when a player could come back without doing himself damage.

And as for the modern game’s global scouting networks, when they can find an Ian Rush for £300,000 or an Alan Hansen for £100,000 — as Bob did — I will be impressed.

A note to the John Henry and Comolli then.
[/quote]

to be fair bob dealt with smaller squads didn't have to deal with the sheer pace of the current league where you need a sqaud of 20+ to cope.
 
[quote author=Rafiagra link=topic=42845.msg1232465#msg1232465 date=1292153473]
bollocks. Its all relative.

Paisley would be top draw now as he was then.
[/quote]

I never said bob wouldn't be class now, I was saying judging a player's fitness levels was easier when you had smaller squads.
 
[quote author=Binny link=topic=42845.msg1232455#msg1232455 date=1292151375]


Players now are reputed to have the best scientific and medical advice available but still seem to spend longer on the treatment table than ever.
[/quote]

That's because they are trained to death from an early age.
 
Inspired by @benlyt on Twitter, I have just hauled down my copy of the excellent Soccernomics (re-titled ‘Why England Lose’ in the UK) in which Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski set out 12 inefficiencies in the transfer market that conventional wisdom seems to ignore.

They cite as inspiration Billy Beane
, the Oakland As general manager immortalised in Michael Lewis’s Moneyball, who exploited the failings of baseball’s player-trading market to turn the Oakland As record-breaking side on the lowest salary in the American League.

Beane was so conspicuously successful that John W Henry, currently enjoying his first transfer window as Liverpool owner, tried to hire him as general manager of the Boston Red Sox when he bought the franchise in 2002. Henry was so convinced that Beane could trade up the quality of the Red Sox roster while driving down the wage bill that he was willing to make him the highest-paid GM in major league history with a five-year contract worth a minimum of $12.5m.

After much deliberation Beane said no, having decided that, when it came to recruitment and value, he had already proved with the As that he was right and the rest of baseball was wrong, and leaving would only have been about money.

Beane’s strategy was based on a ruthlessly objective assessment of a player’s contribution, backed by exhaustive statistical analysis, and an absence of emotion when trading. Eight years on Henry is discovering that there are few harder places to apply that approach than Liverpool, and that if there is value to be had in the football transfer market it is not obvious when you are trying to buy a centre-forward on deadline day in January.

So for his benefit, and anyone else who is interested, here are Kuper and Szymanski’s 12 golden rules of the transfer market (the comments in parentheses are mine).

[size=10pt]1. A new manager wastes money on transfers: don’t let him
2. Use the wisdom of crowds (take opinions on players from a number of coaches)
3. Stars of recent World Cups or European Championships are overvalued: ignore them
4. Certain nationalities are overvalued (Brazilians and Dutch, for example)
5. Older players are overvalued
6. Centre-forwards are overvalued; goalkeepers are undervalued
7. Gentlemen prefer blondes; identify and abandon ’sight-based prejudices’ (blonde players are, sub-consciously, disproportionately popular with scouts because they stand out from a distance)
8. The best time to buy a player is when he is in his early twenties
9. Sell any player when another club offers more than he is worth
10. Replace your best players even before you sell them
11. Buy players with personal problems, and then help them deal with their problems
12. Help your players relocate[/size]

Apply No 9 (appropriately) to Liverpool and Newcastle today and it rather suggests both clubs should cash in on Fernando Torres and Andy Carroll, assuming you ignore rule one, which states that Henry should not let Kenny Dalglish have any money at all. It is too late for either club to do anything about rule 10, which requires replacements to already have been recruited.

Whatever happens to Torres this transfer window has been a fierce baptism for Henry as he gets to grips with the realities of Premier League life. His record at the Red Sox, and more pertinently in business, suggests that by the time the summer comes round he will have worked out some fresh inefficiencies of his own and be ready to apply them.

Henry made millions identifying marginal value that no-one else could spot in the financial markets, so with the right technical advice football should not be beyond him
. As Moneyball makes plain, Beane’s secret was knowing which bits of conventional wisdom to ignore. If Henry can repeat that formula at Anfield the short-term may not be as bleak as it will seem with Torres departed.

One other thought as Henry searches for a Liverpool chief executive to take the pressure off him and his laptop in Boston. After Beane turned down the Red Sox, Henry turned instead to a 28 year-old Yale graduate who had no experience playing baseball. Not long after they won the World Series. Is Liverpool’s future boss an established football suit, or an LSE graduate?
 
Off topic a little from football, but an insight into their thoughts in general.

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2011/02/19/red-sox-ownership-redefine-money-ball/

As long as the Red Sox have the funds available they want their fans to know that they are going to invest it in putting a championship caliber team on the field.

The returning players certainly got that message loud and clear this winter and showed their appreciation by giving ownership a standing ovation during Saturday’ meeting held by skipper Terry Franacona, prior to the first full-squad workout.

And it’s only going to get better.

After addressing the media for 23 minutes, Red Sox president Larry Lucchino announced that the team paid $85 million in revenue sharing to MLB in 2010, including a $1.5 million luxury tax. According to Baseball-Reference.com, the Red Sox have an estimated payroll of $161.5 million in 2011, third behind the Yankees ($202.5 million) and the Phillies ($164.6 million).

And, despite the addition of big-ticket stars Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, Red Sox president Lucchino said Saturday the team still has financial flexibility to add even more artillery in the battle to win the AL East in 2011.

“We always have some amount of money to be determined each year, but we will certainly look to make improvements if the team is in the hunt and has a specific need and there’s a specific opportunity,†Lucchino said. “Yeah. I think that’s a specific obligation of ownership.â€

In two megadeals, the Red Sox commited $142 million over seven years to Crawford five days after sending blue chip prospects Anthony Rizzo, Casey Kelly and Reymond Fuentes and Eric Patterson to San Diego for Gonzalez. The Red Sox are said to be on the verge of a $164 million extension with Gonzalez over seven years. J.D. Drew is in the final season of a five-year, $70 million contract.

“Every team has limits,†Red Sox principal owner John Henry said. “We have a strong commitment to winning, every year, every offseason. But you can’t always do everything that you want to do because you have long-term considerations as well as short-term considerations. The right piece for what you’re looking for as far as a particular player at a particular position doesn’t always match up. This year it did.â€

“I think it shows a kind of versatility on the part of the club to be able to act when the opportunity presents itself and the needs are there,†Lucchino added. “I credit Theo and his staff for being as agile and versatile as need be to make things happen this year. One year does not reputation change.â€

Asked if he felt the need to show Red Sox fans that his investments in NASCAR and European Soccer won’t affect his spending on the Red Sox, Henry said he will always make sure the baseball entity is taken care of.

“I think that we’ve shown consistently over the last 10 years we’ve had the second-highest payroll in baseball so I don’t think there was any need at all to show a commitment,†Henry said. “I think last year we went into the year thinking we were very strong. Looking back, if we had not had the scope of depth of injuries, we would have competed for the World Series.

“There was never a conversation, ‘We need to show a commitment.’ The conversation was as usual, ‘What’s it going to take?’ especially when we have a poor year like last year.â€

Other notable items:

- Henry said he has not had any detailed discussions with Epstein about a contract extension. “We haven’t had any substantive talks recently but we talk about … I always ask him how he’s doing and things are going extremely well from our vantagepoint, from his vantagepoint, I can’t even tell you, I don’t even know when his contract is up,†Henry said. “We haven’t discussed contracts. I think the important thing is that we’re all extremely happy working together.†Epstein took over as GM in 2003 and the team has made the playoffs in six of his eight seasons as GM.

- Chairman Tom Werner said Red Sox owners would try to get a “friendly†match at Fenway for their English Premier League club – Liverpool FC Reds – in 2012 but one this year is unlikely.

- Lucchino said the club has spent $250 million over 10 years to upgrade Fenway Park and that that the renovation – beyond standard upkeep – is complete with this season’s additions, which includes an HD video board in the outfield.

- There will be a groundbreaking on March 4 for the new spring training complex close to the Southwest Florida International Airport. The complex, including a Fenway-themed stadium for spring training games, will open in 2012 on a 126-acre site.
 
[quote author=SaintGeorge67 link=topic=42845.msg1288179#msg1288179 date=1298198776]
Liverpool FC Reds
[/quote]

Nearly got sick when i read that
 
Lies, Damned Lies & Statistics

We have won more games this season when Jamie Carragher has not played than when he has. Martin Skrtel has won more tackles and completed more successful passes than any other Liverpool defender and won more headers than Kyrgiakos. And Glen Johnson has made more successful tackles than Martin Kelly.

Three somewhat surprising statistics from the excellent Anfield Index (@AnfieldIndex) on Twitter. But what they show above all is how we should be careful with stats – and that there are risks involved in applying the stats-based ‘Moneyball’ approach which is apparently favoured by our new owners to football.

The most important thing about stats is that they require context. Carragher played in the vast majority of games during the aberration that was Roy Hodgson’s reign, missing most of Kenny Dalglish’s early games, when results picked up, through injury. Winning tackles is a key part of a defender’s job, but the stats don’t tell us how often Skrtel or Johnson was caught out of position or lost their man, nor how often other defenders intercepted rather than having to tackle by virtue of being in the right place and anticipating what the opponent would do.

How many of Skrtel’s passes were short ones to another centre back – he doesn’t attempt the more ambitious passes that Agger does very often. And Kyrgiakos tends to be picked in games against teams like Bolton and Stoke where aerial challenges are harder to win.

This is not to dismiss any of these stats. They’re interesting, sometimes illuminating, but they require context. The quality and nature of the opposition, the team selection and formation and the game situation – were we chasing the game or protecting a lead? – are all critical to what players are required to do.

Making lots of last ditch tackles may show you’re a great defender or that you have to recover after getting caught out. A high pass completion rate may show you don’t often play it long or that your colleagues are good at anticipating what you will do. You can’t consider stats in isolation.

It’s why there is some cause for concern if stats are to be our primary motivation in assessing transfer targets, as has been suggested in some quarters. In baseball, where the theory was founded – or in say, tennis or cricket – stats can give you a very clear idea of where games are won and lost.

This is because much of the ‘battle’ is between individuals – pitcher and batter, bowler and batsman, etc. In football, your ability and requirement to win tackles and headers, make passes and everything else is dependent on the rest of your team, its tactical set up and the movement and ability of colleagues.

For example, Charlie Adam’s pass completion rate is far lower than Lucas Leiva, but he attempts more ambitious passes in a lesser team (this is not to criticise Lucas at all, he does a great job keeping our midfield ticking over, it’s just to illustrate that stats need context). Luis Suarez has a phenomenal scoring record in the Dutch league, but although the early signs from him are good, there is no guarantee he will repeat his scoring rate against Premier League defences (the likes of Kuyt and Kezman certainly didn’t, though Van Nistelrooy did).

Judgement of a football player and what he can contribute to a team requires real expertise – the stats can play a small part, but they shouldn’t form the bulk of any decision on who to buy or sell – if only it were that simple.

Some of the best buys, with the best stats, don’t work out for a variety of reasons, including personal as well as footballing ones. We can’t make football decisions based purely on statistical analysis – it can inform our decisions for sure, but it shouldn’t be the basis of them.
 
The moneyball approach is what the writer of that article states in the second half of the article rather than what he presumes it to be in the first half.
 
[quote author=Judge Jules link=topic=42845.msg1288310#msg1288310 date=1298211718]
Of course they are. Cut them some slack FFS. These guys learn quick.
[/quote]

It is more likely the writer of the article that called them that.
 
Moneyball falls by the wayside

After the dark final days of the Rafa Benitez reign, and most notably the acquisition of Milan Jovanovic, it is refreshing to see Liverpool take a lead in the transfer market once again, with the club having agreed a deal worth £20 million for Sunderland's Jordan Henderson.

He will not be the last. Stewart Downing and Charlie Adam could follow in what is already a packed midfield, while Newcastle left-back Jose Enrique and Ipswich Town's boy wonder Connor Wickham are also on the wanted list ahead of what is expected to be a busy summer for the accountants at Anfield.

It is quite the statement of intent from manager Kenny Dalglish, director of football strategy Damien Comolli and owner John Henry, and a palpable improvement on the muddled policies overseen by Benitez and Roy Hodgson as they were forced to work under the oppressive economic conditions created by the hated Tom Hicks and George Gillett - just witness the curious case of Alberto Aquilani.

However, ED cannot help but feel that this fresh approach is not without some apparent flaws.

While investing in domestic talent should always be applauded, and it can only benefit England if Henderson enjoys regular football at Anfield, the quoted price seems remarkably high for a player with one international cap, and that a humbling experience at the hands of France.

Though undoubtedly a player of real talent and potential, Henderson was also booed by Sunderland supporters at one point last season as his form suffered with that of the club as they plummeted down the table. It is fair to say he still has room for improvement; perhaps Anfield will be the stage that allows him to flourish.

Reservations over Henderson's price are tempered somewhat by the fact Liverpool have successfully managed to value David Ngog at £7m in the part exchange deal, taking the sting out of the initial outlay somewhat, but that does not disguise the fact that the overall value of the deal is still eye-watering.

Henderson's is not an isolated case. Reported fees of £8m for Adam and £9m for Enrique feel a touch high, while the ultimate example is of course the £35m paid for Andy Carroll in January. Though Liverpool say his price was always going to fall in line with that paid by Chelsea for Fernando Torres, it was still a ludicrous amount to pay for a player with six decent months in the top flight and one international cap.

In fact, it made Carroll the most expensive British player of all time and the eighth costliest in the history of the game. Even taking inflation into account, something Liverpool supporters love to do when feverishly debating net spend, that is a crazy price.

Liverpool's recent approach is all the more puzzling to ED because the new owners were said to buy into Moneyball - a policy that is supposed to eschew overly-elaborate spending in order to find value where others have missed it, and base recruitment on empirical values, rather than the more instinctive recruitment model embodied by the likes of Harry Redknapp.

In January, following the appointment of Comolli, The Guardian predicted "Liverpool's cut-price revolution". Comolli was an acolyte of Billy Beane, the man who introduced a statistics-based approach at the Oakland As, and was supposed to be able to identify players who were undervalued judging by the market rate.

Notably, Henry said after completing his takeover of the club last Autumn: "When we spend a dollar, it has to be wisely. We have work to do and must invest in this club to improve it on the field."

While that specific philosophy and the £20m valuation of Henderson may not necessarily be mutually exclusive - for example, Comolli and Dalglish may feel he will be worth £40m in three years' time - what is certain is that Liverpool have paid over the odds for a player of his current ability.

Arsene Wenger, unsurprisingly given his reputation for prudence, identified well over a decade ago that British players commanded fees well above the market rate. At present, Liverpool appear happy to pay that premium, which ostensibly sits ill at ease with what are supposed to be their guiding principles.

A cursory glance around Europe only underlines this suspicion. Giuseppe Rossi, a leading light of La Liga who scored 32 goals in all competitions for Villarreal last season and is a target for Barcelona, is believed to be valued at just £4m more than Henderson. He has over 20 caps for Italy and is still just 24.

To take an example from last summer, given this transfer window is still in its infancy, a player of the quality and class of Mesut Ozil cost Real Madrid only £13m when joining the club from Werder Bremen. He has the talent to be one of the leading playmakers of his generation and moved to Madrid off the back of a World Cup in which he was one of the finest players of the tournament.

Of course, Ozil's price was driven down by the fact that he had only one year remaining on his contract, but that only underlines there are bargains to be had.

To take another example, if he does indeed leave Arsenal then Samir Nasri - a man who gave Henderson the runaround in his only appearance for England - will probably cost something similar to the Sunderland man for the same reason that Ozil was available on the cheap.

The key, of course, is that Liverpool at present are not capable of attracting such players; their absence from the Champions League dictates that much. Instead they must lower their sights and gamble big on the youth of Henderson, and hope that a player like Adam is more than just a flash in the pan, even if you suspect equivalent talents could be found for cheaper elsewhere.

In this context their recruitment policy makes a touch more sense as Dalglish tries to assemble a squad capable of breaking back into the top four. But any higher aspirations - competing with Manchester United, Chelsea and possibly Manchester City for the title - may require another heavy outlay in the transfer market.

Thankfully, it is a task the club's board have demonstrated they are willing to take on
.
 
This article is the exact reason why I'm not so keen on our current transfers.

Everyone and his dog is ecstatic about the ridiculous amounts being spent since it's 'not their money' so who cares?..Yes, assuming the money is a bottomless well is fine..but in 31 years of supporting the club the money is NEVER bottomless and bad spending is ALWAYS going to hurt us..it has before and I dont see why it's not going to be a factor again.

There are good deals out there, and just chucking top top money at unproven potential sounds exciting, but what happens if the overall result is a squad that is just slightly better than what we have now and we've spent 60 or 80 million with another massive wage bill on our hands?

The solution would of course be simple, spend even more money.

Which is fine, and would suit many on here perfectly.

I would though rather see our management team continue to source out quality no matter where they exist and to always be as prudent as possible, because once you do that you will ALWAYS have more money for the next quality payer that becomes available.

This is not aimed at the Henderson deal in particular; if we have indeed paid 11 million plus N'gog that's a great deal..but if we've paid 20 million for him that's 9 million which could have gone on to a deal for Mata, or Aguero or another LB.

The obvious reply is of course 'we don't know how much more we're going to spend this window'..yes, but we also don't know how much we're going to spend the next window, and the next 5 windows..and that big spending should never be seen as a relacement for good spending.

I do feel that we're missing a trick here, and that with some careful marshalling of resources we're on the cusp of building a phenomenal team for next season capable of destroying every team in the Premier League.

This isnt assuming we're not going to win next year, I still believe we will..we have a motivated team, a motivated manager..and I believe we have a tremendous advantage over many other expensively fashioned teams.

We MUST not blow it.
 
13m transfer fee + 60k per week for 5 years= about 16m.

Minus Ngog's (20k per week?) wages and hopefully Joe Cole's wages (90k per week) isn't too bad, I reckon.

I mentioned Cole cause he's probably the one being replaced.

I'm making this comment having never seen the lad play (or can't remember) so who knows.

But I'm sure they weighed it all up.
 
Avvy,

Do you think that Dalglish and Comolli are just chucking millions at any young thing with a British passport, and hope something sticks? This transfer business thing is a lot more complicated than just walking into a shop and pick the one you like. I am sure they are thorough and prudent and hard at work unearthing gems, always looking to get a good deal. But it is never going to be easy, because the competition is fierce and footballers are fickle and greedy. Look at the money Man City had to spend to break into the top 4, and some of the players they bought were very average as well (not to mention ridiculously overpriced).

All we can ask from D & C is that they do their best, and all we can ask from FSG is that they provide the funds. I have no doubt about the former, and it sure looks like the latter is happening as well.
 
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