Why would the EU want UK to return?
Sunlit Uplands
- Thread starter Lippy
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Same reasons that they didn't want the UK to leave, and they want other countries to join.
What is the primary reason the EU would let the UK return?
No idea what you're getting at. I don't think there is a primary reason, but if I were to pick one, it's probably that it tends to be better for everyone when there are more people/countries aligned, as opposed to them all going their own way.
I can't see a reason why the EU would want the UK back which is what I was getting at. If I were to pick one the only one I can think of is our defence capability. However that requires cooperation which is often elusive has countries tend towards self-interest.
It's the same reason that they didn't want the UK to leave, I don't think anything has changed in that regard, other than probably proving out the reasons why remaining was the better option. Maybe a bit of pride and stubbornness on top of that. Besides that, it'd be crazy to not aim to go back in the direction of where it was before.
You are more of an optimist than I. Assuming that there would be another referendum it would be very difficult to sell the status quo ante especially given the attempt to subvert democracy and the antagonism that has followed.
As Gerry said, it’s the same reasons why they didn’t want the UK to leave in the first place.
No doubt it’s a pain in the hole for Europeans to trade with the UK now - or it will be if the UK actually starts to think about border control outside of refugees in dingys.
There’s not doubt removal of frictionless trade in what was one of the biggest internal markets will have hurt the EU (just not quite as bad as it’ll hurt the UK).
Bigger market gives better leverage for trade negotiations to other external markets.
There’s no doubt that the UK can greatly contribute on the science and research front, and that appears to be dropping off.
Defense - but sure wasn’t that one of the scare stories for leaving - the EU wanting to talk about defence and armies.
Having to let Farage back into the European Parliament and listen to his nonsense, they probs don’t miss.
It’s unlikely to happen in a full integration sort of thing - the EU would likely insist on the UK during the Euro - too many Daily Mail reader heads would explode at the thought of the Queen’s head not being on all the monies.
Then there’s Shengen.
I could see Starmer moving to some sort of Customs Union type approach once he gets his feet under the table as the “Brexit Bonus” really starts to bite - there’s the potential to sell that on the basis that COVID changed everything and the UK needs to change it’s strategy to meet new challenges.
Brexit is over. You have an agreement now. This one.
[article]
The EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement
The EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement concluded between the EU and the UK sets out preferential arrangements in areas such as trade in goods and in services, digital trade, intellectual property, public procurement, aviation and road transport, energy, fisheries, social security coordination, law enforcement and judicial cooperation in criminal matters, thematic cooperation and participation in Union programmes. It is underpinned by provisions ensuring a level playing field and respect for fundamental rights.
While it will by no means match the level of economic integration that existed while the UK was an EU Member State, the Trade and Cooperation Agreement goes beyond traditional free trade agreements and provides a solid basis for preserving our longstanding friendship and cooperation.
The Trade and Cooperation Agreement was signed on 30 December 2020, was applied provisionally as of 1 January 2021 and entered into force on 1 May 2021.
https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/...gdom/eu-uk-trade-and-cooperation-agreement_en
[/article]
They have no incentive to go back for at least the several decades or so that we've agreed to carry on paying our financial obligations and pension contributions. In it, from all of the thousands of pages of provisions and clauses in there on all manner of issues, they are all preceded by a written explanation of what the intention of both parties was. Very helpful to a court in the event of future disputes. Here is one of the relevant preceding statements of our intentions that the EU were so excited about that they pasted it straight onto the first page of their website above.
[article]
9. RECOGNISING the need for an ambitious, wide-ranging and balanced economic partnership to be underpinned by a level playing field for open and fair competition and sustainable development, through effective and robust frameworks for subsidies and competition and a commitment to uphold their respective high levels of protection in the areas of labour and social standards, environment, the fight against climate change, and taxation,
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:22021A0430(01)&from=EN
[/article]
So yes, they're absolutely right, it is indeed "underpinned by provisions ensuring a level playing field". In other words, anything we do as a country that gives us a competitive advantage against the EU will be in breach of those provisions. You don't need to be a lawyer to see this, the plain english couldn't be plainer if you had the fucking queen dictate it herself. Ordinarily you could litigate such things and say oh no, no, actually there is nothing in these clauses that tells us we can't have 0% capital gains tax like Singapore, we never agreed to any such thing because blah blah. Not here. The court will literally laugh their ass off, this trade agreement has rendered such freedom non-existent.
What is the UK to do? Well it will adhere to what is essentially a non-compete clause, the population will become poorer and eventually end up scrounging for rat burgers, blaming it on brexit without really understanding the economics. Or else, the UK could back out of this trade agreement, and then no other country will think agreements with the UK are worth the paper they're written on, which will also lead to rat burgers.
The UK and the EU have not been competitive in the global economy for decades. The only capital that comes here is either to be laundered or to transact in our financial markets. No good for the rat eating population. There's just far better investments in places like India. So all we're left with is debt, that's how we raise capital, and we should be paying it down before it gets too expensive. But hey ho, we've signed a non-compete clause with the EU instead, which forces us to incur more debt. But yeah, I'm sure it will be fine though, yeah, everything will be fine. Joining the Euro will fix everything by magic in ways we don't yet understand.
[article]
The EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement
The EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement concluded between the EU and the UK sets out preferential arrangements in areas such as trade in goods and in services, digital trade, intellectual property, public procurement, aviation and road transport, energy, fisheries, social security coordination, law enforcement and judicial cooperation in criminal matters, thematic cooperation and participation in Union programmes. It is underpinned by provisions ensuring a level playing field and respect for fundamental rights.
While it will by no means match the level of economic integration that existed while the UK was an EU Member State, the Trade and Cooperation Agreement goes beyond traditional free trade agreements and provides a solid basis for preserving our longstanding friendship and cooperation.
The Trade and Cooperation Agreement was signed on 30 December 2020, was applied provisionally as of 1 January 2021 and entered into force on 1 May 2021.
https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/...gdom/eu-uk-trade-and-cooperation-agreement_en
[/article]
They have no incentive to go back for at least the several decades or so that we've agreed to carry on paying our financial obligations and pension contributions. In it, from all of the thousands of pages of provisions and clauses in there on all manner of issues, they are all preceded by a written explanation of what the intention of both parties was. Very helpful to a court in the event of future disputes. Here is one of the relevant preceding statements of our intentions that the EU were so excited about that they pasted it straight onto the first page of their website above.
[article]
9. RECOGNISING the need for an ambitious, wide-ranging and balanced economic partnership to be underpinned by a level playing field for open and fair competition and sustainable development, through effective and robust frameworks for subsidies and competition and a commitment to uphold their respective high levels of protection in the areas of labour and social standards, environment, the fight against climate change, and taxation,
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:22021A0430(01)&from=EN
[/article]
So yes, they're absolutely right, it is indeed "underpinned by provisions ensuring a level playing field". In other words, anything we do as a country that gives us a competitive advantage against the EU will be in breach of those provisions. You don't need to be a lawyer to see this, the plain english couldn't be plainer if you had the fucking queen dictate it herself. Ordinarily you could litigate such things and say oh no, no, actually there is nothing in these clauses that tells us we can't have 0% capital gains tax like Singapore, we never agreed to any such thing because blah blah. Not here. The court will literally laugh their ass off, this trade agreement has rendered such freedom non-existent.
What is the UK to do? Well it will adhere to what is essentially a non-compete clause, the population will become poorer and eventually end up scrounging for rat burgers, blaming it on brexit without really understanding the economics. Or else, the UK could back out of this trade agreement, and then no other country will think agreements with the UK are worth the paper they're written on, which will also lead to rat burgers.
The UK and the EU have not been competitive in the global economy for decades. The only capital that comes here is either to be laundered or to transact in our financial markets. No good for the rat eating population. There's just far better investments in places like India. So all we're left with is debt, that's how we raise capital, and we should be paying it down before it gets too expensive. But hey ho, we've signed a non-compete clause with the EU instead, which forces us to incur more debt. But yeah, I'm sure it will be fine though, yeah, everything will be fine. Joining the Euro will fix everything by magic in ways we don't yet understand.
I never really understood the subversion of democracy, there's a pile more information available now, everyone has a good idea of what Brexit actually looks like, so it's logical to use that information and relook at the original decision to see if it was correct. Maybe there'd be the same result, not sure.
There's a new government every 5 years, max, I don't see anyone saying that we made a decision on the government and should stick to it.
Still going on about Singapore, where binny couldn't go to the match because he couldn't get time off and even if he did couldn't afford a ticket. Your utopia is a prison.
80% of people live in public housing... I can't see that happening in Singapore upon Thames any time soon.
A political party needs to pledge another referendum to rejoin the EU after re-entry terms are agreed, published and an appropriate consultation period is completed.
This commitment in a manifesto will enable a clear choice, so we'll get to see if the electorate wants to change it's mind.
You might say the same thing about EU membership every 5 years.
I still don't see why the EU would want us back in the tent pissing all over the place.
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If you say bad things about the shitfest of a country we live in, Sunak thinks you should be deradicalised.
Fucking mental. We are being led by Nazis.
Fucking mental. We are being led by Nazis.
There would be a bit of grandstanding but ultimately the EU would let Britain back in. It would have to be under the same rules as before because the EU definitely could not be seen to bend on anything just to let Britain back in but I think they'd gladly do it. Large country, big economy etc.
Oh the horrors of utopia, poor Binny. Perhaps one day I will find myself wondering the streets of our dystopian future, watching kids scurrying around eating rat burgers, and I will be sure to gather them around a bin fire to tell them this parable of Binny not being able to go to the game. It will help them to appreciate their freedom.
Hahaha. You sure do paint a picture Dantes.
The EU would let the UK back. They would create a lot of fuss, but they would go for it in the end I’m sure because it would be within their interest.
that said, I don’t think the UK government will be applying for membership any time soon. Although I doubt the membership terms would be much worse (I don’t think we would have the Euro, for example, and I don’t think we should. The last Labour government made a good call on that, mostly thanks to Gordon Brown of all people), but they would be a bit worse. Less rebates and exemptions.
ultimately I think even if we had a more pro-EU govt, I don’t think it would be a strong enough one to drive it through. It will still be a contentious issue for a very long time, it will take a long time to actually join (took long enough to just leave, remember) and a government with a small or no majority wouldn’t be able to survive it.
In regard to joining the Customs Union or Single Market, I don’t think that will happen either, and it shouldn’t. I have no issue with being part of an EU (I think it needs reform, but I have no problem with the principle at all) but being part of a Customs Union without any influence over it doesn’t sound sensible at all. Similarly with the Single Market. You can pay to access it, but have no influence over it and you still have customs checks. Neither are really much of a compromise for an economy of the size of the UK.
What I would suspect will happen eventually is that we will establish a better relationship with the EU from the outside.
that said, I don’t think the UK government will be applying for membership any time soon. Although I doubt the membership terms would be much worse (I don’t think we would have the Euro, for example, and I don’t think we should. The last Labour government made a good call on that, mostly thanks to Gordon Brown of all people), but they would be a bit worse. Less rebates and exemptions.
ultimately I think even if we had a more pro-EU govt, I don’t think it would be a strong enough one to drive it through. It will still be a contentious issue for a very long time, it will take a long time to actually join (took long enough to just leave, remember) and a government with a small or no majority wouldn’t be able to survive it.
In regard to joining the Customs Union or Single Market, I don’t think that will happen either, and it shouldn’t. I have no issue with being part of an EU (I think it needs reform, but I have no problem with the principle at all) but being part of a Customs Union without any influence over it doesn’t sound sensible at all. Similarly with the Single Market. You can pay to access it, but have no influence over it and you still have customs checks. Neither are really much of a compromise for an economy of the size of the UK.
What I would suspect will happen eventually is that we will establish a better relationship with the EU from the outside.
It's almost as if the UK already had the best deal with the EU before they left...
Europe is fucked, the UK is slightly more fucked than the rest of Europe, so instead of Europe having to fix itself, it can point at the UK and say look at how fucked that place is, look at how more fucked you could be. It's therefore not in the EUs interest to have us either rejoin or show any signs of growth.
Like I said earlier, it’s an oppressive regime.
If we had any natural resources the USA would be “freeing us”.
If we had any natural resources the USA would be “freeing us”.
He’s just saying anything to win now, desperate robot.
He should play the long game and let Truss win as it’s bound to happen anyway, he was always like to finish last any 2 horse race.
