Betting The Grand National - How to pick the winner

[Rosco]

The following are the main trends relating to the race:

Weight Factor

Only one horse in the last 25 years has carried more than 11 stone to victory. Only one horse in the last 51 years, the great Red Rum, has won the race carrying more than 11 stone 5lbs. This is a very important statistic to keep in mind when you consider the numbers involved during that period.

Age Factor

A seven year old has not won the Grand National for 68 years and it's 95 years since a six year old was last victorious.

Nine year olds have won 4 Nationals in the last 10 years and runners aged between ten and twelve have won 12 of the last 19 renewals.

Teenagers need to be avoided with none even in the frame since 1969. The last winner was 86 years ago.

Grand National Form

Only one horse that either won or was placed in a previous year’s National has gone on to win a later renewal of the race since 1998. During the same period there have been three National winners who didn’t finish a previous year’s contest.


Other Stats of Note

There have been five Irish trained winners in the last nine renewals.

Since 1970 every winner had previously won over 3 miles or more.

4 of the last 5 Grand National winners had run over hurdles in the year they won the race.

French bred runners have a poor record.

Runners with an official rating of between 136 and 157 have been responsible for winning the last 21 renewals.

All of the last 11 winners had previously won a chase worth at least £17,000.

 

[Whitey85]

Also 8 of the last 11 winners came from the top 8 in the betting
All 92 French breds have been beaten in the last 10 years

 

[HC]

AKA Pick me a horse, Bosco!

 

[Rosco]

I used these stats last year and managed to back the winner, and I think I remember giving the horse to Vlad as well.

So the declared runners are as follows:

The ones in red are ones that fall foul of three of the main (easily spotted) stats, Weight, Age, French Bred. I have to admit I'm not entirely comfortable leaving Black Apalachi out.

6-0431F Cloudy Lane 10 9 11-7 D McCain Jnr 158 33/1
1U1F23 Chelsea Harbour (IRE) 27 9 11-5 Thomas Mullins 148 40/1
32-56F2 Snowy Morning (IRE) 20 9 11-5 W P Mullins 145 25/1
16UP-10 Knowhere (IRE) 104 11 11-4 N A Twiston-Davies 155 50/1
P211-P0 Comply Or Die (IRE) 88 10 11-3 D Pipe 151 14/1
0-25555 Ollie Magern 17 11 11-3 N A Twiston-Davies 151 66/1
0F2-P15 Black Apalachi (IRE) 20 10 11-2 D T Hughes 138 14/1
01-556U Hear The Echo (IRE) 31 8 11-2 M F Morris 149 20/1
140-0F1 Preists Leap (IRE) 51 9 11-2 T O'Leary 146 40/1
32023/5 My Will (FR) 104 9 11-1 P F Nicholls 160 9/1
411P1P/ Eurotrek (IRE) 721 13 11-0 P F Nicholls 151 66/1
2560-14 State of Play 77 9 10-13 Evan Williams 150 18/1
322U13 Big Fella Thanks 18 7 10-12 P F Nicholls 150 14/1
302421/ Silver Birch (IRE) 701 12 10-11 Gordon Elliott 148 40/1
03F-000 Butler's Cabin (FR) 76 9 10-10 Jonjo O'Neill 134
1111/U2- Offshore Account (IRE) 444 9 10-10 C F Swan 149 25/1
23/54-1P Parsons Legacy (IRE) 113 11 10-9 P J Hobbs 146 33/1
F0612/P Reveillez 45 10 10-9 Jonjo O'Neill 142 66/1
0146P6 Fundamentalist (IRE) 10 11 10-8 N A Twiston-Davies 142 100/1
11133/3- Golden Flight (FR) 653 10 10-8 N J Henderson 141 40/1
F0-1421 L'ami (FR) 37 10 10-8 E Bolger 146 20/1
32-245P Battlecry 19 8 10-7 N A Twiston-Davies 142 50/1
P00-F12 Cornish Sett (IRE) 49 10 10-7 P F Nicholls 144 40/1
42-P610 Fleet Street 17 10 10-7 N J Henderson 142 66/1
122210 Musica Bella (FR) 90 9 10-7 F Cottin - 66/1
3-11131 Can't Buy Time (IRE) 40 7 10-6 Jonjo O'Neill 142 40/1
13P/3P1 Darkness 10 10 10-6 C R Egerton 151 28/1
F32311 Irish Invader (IRE) 44 8 10-6 W P Mullins 134 25/1
6-56511 Rambling Minster 4 11 10-6 K G Reveley 149 10/1
06U343 Southern Vic (IRE) 3 10 10-6 T M Walsh 143 14/1
20P-111 Kilbeggan Blade 49 10 10-4 T R George 141 22/1
412402 Brooklyn Brownie (IRE) 111 10 10-3 J M Jefferson 140 40/1
P504P0 Himalayan Trail 4 10 10-3 James Joseph Mangan 138 25/1
00010-0 Arteea (IRE) 22 10 10-2 D Pipe 133 200/1
P/50PP-0 Cerium (FR) 21 8 10-2 Paul Murphy 134 500/1
50-2403 Idle Talk (IRE) 34 10 10-2 D McCain Jnr 134 66/1
F2F6-00 Kelami (FR) 21 11 10-2 Mrs L Williamson 138 150/1
232P5/1 Zabenz (NZ) 70 12 10-2 P J Hobbs 139 100/1
2U41U-0 Maljimar (IRE) 115 9 10-1 Nick Williams 142 33/1
11-1113 Companero (IRE) 42 9 10-0 J Howard Johnson 137 50/1
333P0P Iron Man (FR) 36 8 10-0 P Bowen 126 100/1
P2P-P0P Mattock Ranger (IRE) 38 9 10-0 N Meade 131 100/1
44P-314 Niche Market (IRE) 32 8 10-0 R H Buckler 136 100/1
U01344 Pomme Tiepy (FR) 25 6 10-0 W P Mullins 137 66/1
01PP6-6 Bagan (FR) 13 10 9-13 M Todhunter 130 100/1
1P1-3PF Beat The Boys (IRE) 28 8 9-13 N A Twiston-Davies 127 66/1
40-306F Bible Lord (IRE) 22 8 9-13 Andrew Turnell 136 100/1
64P3-01 Dix Villez (FR) 116 10 9-13 Paul Nolan 139 66/1
0-4000F Patsy Hall (IRE) 4 9 9-13 A J Martin 136 50/1
2FF01P- In The Loop (IRE) 332 11 9-12 Roy L Wilson 138 100/1
00-P304 Nadover (FR) 24 8 9-12 C J Mann 139 66/1
2/223F0- Pak Jack (FR) 343 9 9-12 R T Phillips 133 100/1
421101 Seymour Weld 231 9 9-12 C T Pogson 135 150/1
22/22P4 Nine De Sivola (FR) 46 8 9-11 Ferdy Murphy 135 33/1
10123-P Tom Sayers (IRE) 21 11 9-11 P J Hobbs 128 150/1
321230 Oodachee 22 10 9-9 C F Swan 132 66/1
12366/4 Kings Advocate (IRE) 69 9 9-8 T J Taaffe 126 50/1
2P-30P0 Dun Doire (IRE) 18 10 9-7 A J Martin 134 66/1
2P-P4F0 Le Toscan (FR) 22 9 9-7 D Pipe 125 200/1
1-52541 Out The Black (IRE) 27 11 9-7 P J Hobbs 133 50/1
P0/03-03 Puntal (FR) 10 13 9-7 D Pipe 115 100/1
4220-0P Without A Doubt 15 10 9-7 C Llewellyn 127 100/1
5400-P0 Milan Deux Mille (FR) 32 7 9-5 D Pipe 124 100/1
400-23P Sandhurst (IRE) 25 9 9-2 Edgar Byrne 117 200/1
6P0-42P Lord Killeshanra (IRE) 42 10 9-1 C L Tizzard 124 150/1
130U63 Lysander (GER) 26 10 9-1 Ian Williams 121 150/1
213140 Malko de Beaumont (FR) 12 9 9-1 A D Brown 124 100/1
06-350F Pass Me By 17 10 8-13 Miss S Smith 139 150/1
1110PP Mont Misere (FR) 95 13 8-12 Paul Murphy 121 500/1

 

[Rosco]

So to take those out of the equation leaves us with a shorter list.

Next, if you take into the account the Rating stat (136-157), you can leave out the following marked in red:

2560-14 State of Play 77 9 10-13 Evan Williams 150 18/1
302421/ Silver Birch (IRE) 701 12 10-11 Gordon Elliott 148 40/1
1111/U2- Offshore Account (IRE) 444 9 10-10 C F Swan 149 25/1
23/54-1P Parsons Legacy (IRE) 113 11 10-9 P J Hobbs 146 33/1
F0612/P Reveillez 45 10 10-9 Jonjo O'Neill 142 66/1
0146P6 Fundamentalist (IRE) 10 11 10-8 N A Twiston-Davies 142 100/1
11133/3- Golden Flight (FR) 653 10 10-8 N J Henderson 141 40/1
32-245P Battlecry 19 8 10-7 N A Twiston-Davies 142 50/1
P00-F12 Cornish Sett (IRE) 49 10 10-7 P F Nicholls 144 40/1
42-P610 Fleet Street 17 10 10-7 N J Henderson 142 66/1
13P/3P1 Darkness 10 10 10-6 C R Egerton 151 28/1
6-56511 Rambling Minster 4 11 10-6 K G Reveley 149 10/1
06U343 Southern Vic (IRE) 3 10 10-6 T M Walsh 143 14/1
20P-111 Kilbeggan Blade 49 10 10-4 T R George 141 22/1
412402 Brooklyn Brownie (IRE) 111 10 10-3 J M Jefferson 140 40/1
P504P0 Himalayan Trail 4 10 10-3 James Joseph Mangan 138 25/1
00010-0 Arteea (IRE) 22 10 10-2 D Pipe 133 200/1
50-2403 Idle Talk (IRE) 34 10 10-2 D McCain Jnr 134 66/1
232P5/1 Zabenz (NZ) 70 12 10-2 P J Hobbs 139 100/1
2U41U-0 Maljimar (IRE) 115 9 10-1 Nick Williams 142 33/1
11-1113 Companero (IRE) 42 9 10-0 J Howard Johnson 137 50/1
P2P-P0P Mattock Ranger (IRE) 38 9 10-0 N Meade 131 100/1
44P-314 Niche Market (IRE) 32 8 10-0 R H Buckler 136 100/1
0-4000F Patsy Hall (IRE) 4 9 9-13 A J Martin 136 50/1
2FF01P- In The Loop (IRE) 332 11 9-12 Roy L Wilson 138 100/1
421101 Seymour Weld 231 9 9-12 C T Pogson 135 150/1
10123-P Tom Sayers (IRE) 21 11 9-11 P J Hobbs 128 150/1
321230 Oodachee 22 10 9-9 C F Swan 132 66/1
12366/4 Kings Advocate (IRE) 69 9 9-8 T J Taaffe 126 50/1
2P-30P0 Dun Doire (IRE) 18 10 9-7 A J Martin 134 66/1
1-52541 Out The Black (IRE) 27 11 9-7 P J Hobbs 133 50/1
4220-0P Without A Doubt 15 10 9-7 C Llewellyn 127 100/1
400-23P Sandhurst (IRE) 25 9 9-2 Edgar Byrne 117 200/1
6P0-42P Lord Killeshanra (IRE) 42 10 9-1 C L Tizzard 124 150/1
130U63 Lysander (GER) 26 10 9-1 Ian Williams 121 150/1
06-350F Pass Me By 17 10 8-13 Miss S Smith 139 150/1

 

[Rosco]

So half of the field is ruled out without even looking at form, ground conditions or any other factors.

Next I think the best stat to rely on is the horse having previously won over three miles.

2560-14 State of Play 77 9 10-13 Evan Williams 150 18/1
302421/ Silver Birch (IRE) 701 12 10-11 Gordon Elliott 148 40/1
1111/U2- Offshore Account (IRE) 444 9 10-10 C F Swan 149 25/1
23/54-1P Parsons Legacy (IRE) 113 11 10-9 P J Hobbs 146 33/1
F0612/P Reveillez 45 10 10-9 Jonjo O'Neill 142 66/1
0146P6 Fundamentalist (IRE) 10 11 10-8 N A Twiston-Davies 142 100/1
32-245P Battlecry 19 8 10-7 N A Twiston-Davies 142 50/1
P00-F12 Cornish Sett (IRE) 49 10 10-7 P F Nicholls 144 40/1
42-P610 Fleet Street 17 10 10-7 N J Henderson 142 66/1
13P/3P1 Darkness 10 10 10-6 C R Egerton 151 28/1
6-56511 Rambling Minster 4 11 10-6 K G Reveley 149 10/1
06U343 Southern Vic (IRE) 3 10 10-6 T M Walsh 143 14/1
20P-111 Kilbeggan Blade 49 10 10-4 T R George 141 22/1
412402 Brooklyn Brownie (IRE) 111 10 10-3 J M Jefferson 140 40/1
P504P0 Himalayan Trail 4 10 10-3 James Joseph Mangan 138 25/1
232P5/1 Zabenz (NZ) 70 12 10-2 P J Hobbs 139 100/1
2U41U-0 Maljimar (IRE) 115 9 10-1 Nick Williams 142 33/1
11-1113 Companero (IRE) 42 9 10-0 J Howard Johnson 137 50/1
44P-314 Niche Market (IRE) 32 8 10-0 R H Buckler 136 100/1
0-4000F Patsy Hall (IRE) 4 9 9-13 A J Martin 136 50/1
2FF01P- In The Loop (IRE) 332 11 9-12 Roy L Wilson 138 100/1
06-350F Pass Me By 17 10 8-13 Miss S Smith 139 150/1

That wasn't the most useful of stats admittedly.

 

[Dahuge]

I've gone for

Parsons Legacy 33/1
Kilbeggan blade 33/1
Himalayan trail 22/1

 

[HC]

Yer, Like a needle in a haystack to me Rosco.

Pick me a Winnaaaaaaaaaa!

 

[Spionkop69]

[quote author=Hardcastle link=topic=32420.msg834428#msg834428 date=1238446161]
Yer, Like a needle in a haystack to me Rosco.

Pick me a Winnaaaaaaaaaa!
[/quote]

Rambling Minster

 

[HC]

[quote author=Spionkop69 link=topic=32420.msg834439#msg834439 date=1238447174]
[quote author=Hardcastle link=topic=32420.msg834428#msg834428 date=1238446161]
Yer, Like a needle in a haystack to me Rosco.

Pick me a Winnaaaaaaaaaa!
[/quote]

Rambling Minster
[/quote]

I'll get on it.

 

[tom_palin]

different slant on the national but some firms do doubles and trebles on horses to finish/not to finish. unsure of what conditions will be like but not to finish acca's can be good.

 

[Piedro]

Weather forecast is nice for the week here mate so I think going should be good.

 

[Whitey85]

Before the never ending trends process i had a dabble on Snowy Morning at 33/1. Its a proper Mullins plot horse this one. It got a ride round last year when he finished third in the race. Didn't show anything until the weights were published, then suddenly, when the weights are published and can't be adjusted, surprise, surprise he puts in a seasons best when second in a Grade 2 last time out. Very much a similar sort to Hedgehunter who of course won it for the yard a few years ago. I think theres some value in it.

 

[Rosco]

I used to like Snowy Morning til it clattered a fence in Leopardstown about 18 months ago when I had it backed.

btw Snowy Morning was 17 lengths behind the winner (who he was giving 5lbs to) in that Grade 2 event. And the winner Black Apalachi, is 3 lbs lighter in the weights.

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

[quote author=Rosco link=topic=32420.msg834379#msg834379 date=1238439824]

F0-1421 L'ami (FR) 37 10 10-8 E Bolger 146 20/1

[/quote]

I'm a sucker for anagrams.

 

[Piedro]

Ive already backed Parsons Legacy @ 40's and will prob back State Of Play today as well.

Thats it for me.

 

[Loch Ness Monster]

[quote author=Piedro link=topic=32420.msg835157#msg835157 date=1238572336]
Ive already backed Parsons Legacy @ 40's and will prob back State Of Play today as well.

Thats it for me.
[/quote]

Liar, you will probably back another 14 horses on saturday.

 

[Piedro]

Nope.

Ive already got my value for Parsons Legacy. 25's in all high st bookies now. And ive got e/w 1-2-3-4-5 for it. So im stickin to that and State of Play.

If you are havin a bet, get down to Pat Toolans on the fiveways. Loads of offers on for the national.

 

[Richey]

Southern Vic and Black Apalachi seem like decent shouts to me

 

[Vlads Quiff]

I used these stats last year and managed to back the winner, and I think I remember giving the horse to Vlad as well.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


You did indeed Ross, so I await your final machinations

regards

 

[Vlads Quiff]

Ross seems to be back tracking on his system in favour of Black Apalachi 😉

regards

 

[Fox]

spot on Ross

As I said last year on here I have been following those stats for years and been very lucky winning at least 7 out of the last 10 years. My biggest win was with Silver Birch, £50 at 40/1. It fitted all the stats "must haves" but was a huge price, fuck knows why.

Unless there is a mad rider free horse who goes around knocking over the faves you can near enough rule out all but 5 or 6 of the horses every year.

I also rule out the "romantic" bets like never going for Tony McCoy or greys or anyone with a sob story.

so for me its always:

has to of won over 3m before
9 or 10 yr old
weigh between 10.6 and 10.11
normally between 10-1 and 16-1 in odds,Silver Birch being a rare exception.

If run over the aintree course before its a bonus and if its won a different national like Silver Birch who won Welsh National.

I won't work mine out until Friday as McCoy won't say who he is riding until then, and I never back that unlucky git.

 

[Fox]

[quote author=Vlads Quiff link=topic=32420.msg835343#msg835343 date=1238591229]
Ross seems to be back tracking on his system in favour of Black Apalachi 😉

regards
[/quote]

don't blame him vlad, it looks a great horse but a tad heavy for the "usual stats".

tough decision

 

[Rosco]

I have history with Black Apalachi so I feel duty bound to back him. I always do.

In a christmas meeting at leopardstown about 3 years ago I was placing a bet on number 24, only to find when I got to the tote counter (30 seconds before the off) that it was a non runner. So I just said stick on 23 instead, I had no idea what 23 was, but it turned out to be Black Apalachi who won @ 25/1.

 

[Vlads Quiff]

[quote author=Rosco link=topic=32420.msg835542#msg835542 date=1238613437]
I have history with Black Apalachi so I feel duty bound to back him. I always do.

In a christmas meeting at leopardstown about 3 years ago I was placing a bet on number 24, only to find when I got to the tote counter (30 seconds before the off) that it was a non runner. So I just said stick on 23 instead, I had no idea what 23 was, but it turned out to be Black Apalachi who won @ 25/1.
[/quote]
Ross my vision of you intensly studying form and stats to a scientific end has just been blown out of the water 😉

regards

 

[Judge Jules]

[quote author=Richey link=topic=32420.msg835296#msg835296 date=1238587697]
Southern Vic and Black Apalachi seem like decent shouts to me
[/quote]

I like the look of Southern Vic too.

 

[Fox]

[quote author=Rosco link=topic=32420.msg835542#msg835542 date=1238613437]
I have history with Black Apalachi so I feel duty bound to back him. I always do.

In a christmas meeting at leopardstown about 3 years ago I was placing a bet on number 24, only to find when I got to the tote counter (30 seconds before the off) that it was a non runner. So I just said stick on 23 instead, I had no idea what 23 was, but it turned out to be Black Apalachi who won @ 25/1.
[/quote]


I can't back a horse over 11st it goes against all the stats I believe in that have rewarded me well.

Only that cunt hedgehunter has fucked my stats up in the last 7 years, he was over 11 stone.

The stats all point to Rambling Minster, especially if the two faves are the french horses just because ruby and tony are on them.

Offshore account and Brooklyn Brownie are great e/w bets best irish bet to win is probably parsons legacy

 

[Richey]

[quote author=Fox link=topic=32420.msg835371#msg835371 date=1238597213]

has to of won over 3m before
9 or 10 yr old
weigh between 10.6 and 10.11
normally between 10-1 and 16-1 in odds,Silver Birch being a rare exception.

[/quote]

Fair stats to go by.

Have there been recent exceptions to the first one at all?

I know there have been exceptions to the age one (Amberleigh House), the weight one (Hedgehunter) and the odds one (Silver Birch, Bindaree and Red Marauder) in the past 8 years

 

[Fox]

[quote author=Richey link=topic=32420.msg836040#msg836040 date=1238669325]
[quote author=Fox link=topic=32420.msg835371#msg835371 date=1238597213]

has to of won over 3m before
9 or 10 yr old
weigh between 10.6 and 10.11
normally between 10-1 and 16-1 in odds,Silver Birch being a rare exception.

[/quote]

Fair stats to go by.

Have there been recent exceptions to the first one at all?

I know there have been exceptions to the age one (Amberleigh House), the weight one (Hedgehunter) and the odds one (Silver Birch, Bindaree and Red Marauder) in the past 8 years

[/quote]

the stats are never concrete, I always go for an extra one which does not quite fit in the guidelines, use your gut and read up on how they rate over the jumps and with stamina.

9yr olds do win a few, 8 yrs olds very rare and I think the age one is the least powerful of the guidelines.

There has not been a winner who has not won over 3miles since 1970 so that is a key one


Like I said, you have to ignore the French and espeically McCoy as the jockey so the obvious horse to bet on is Rambling Minster



9,10 or 11 is ok, the weight is a key one for me extremely rare to win over 11 stone, hedgehunter was only a piund over

 

[Rosco]

[quote author=Vlads Quiff link=topic=32420.msg835922#msg835922 date=1238659769]
[quote author=Rosco link=topic=32420.msg835542#msg835542 date=1238613437]
I have history with Black Apalachi so I feel duty bound to back him. I always do.

In a christmas meeting at leopardstown about 3 years ago I was placing a bet on number 24, only to find when I got to the tote counter (30 seconds before the off) that it was a non runner. So I just said stick on 23 instead, I had no idea what 23 was, but it turned out to be Black Apalachi who won @ 25/1.

[/quote]
Ross my vision of you intensly studying form and stats to a scientific end has just been blown out of the water 😉

regards
[/quote]


I'm glad that's happened before you took your money out to back something anyway !