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Top 4 next season

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rurikbird

rurikbird

Part of the Furniture
Honorary Member
I know it’s early, but based on the transfer window so far and just your hunch how would you rank the title chances of the top 4 teams (Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City and Chelsea) next season?

Liverpool
Last season’s points tally: 84
Additions: Wirtz, Kerkez, Frimpong, Mamardashvili
Potential additions: A new #9 and a like-for-like replacement for anyone leaving
Losses: Trent, Kelleher, Quansah, Jota RIP 🙁
Potential losses: Konate, Nunez, Diaz, Elliott, Chiesa

Arsenal
Last season’s points tally: 74
Additions: Gyokeres, Zubimendi, Madueke, Norgaard, Kepa
Potential additions: Eze
Losses: #Partey#, £
Potential losses: Martinelli

Man City
Last season’s points tally: 71
Additions: Reijnders, Cherki, Ait-Nouri, Rodri returning from the ACL
Potential additions: A new RB, another winger
Losses: De Bruyne, Grealish
Potential losses: Bernardo Silva, Gundogan, Nico Gonzalez

Chelsea
Last season’s points tally: 69
Additions: Pedro, Delap, Gittens
Potential additions: Every winger or striker under the s*n
Losses: Sancho, Chilwell, Madueke
Potential losses: Nicholas Jackson, Nkunku

Before I try to answer my own question, I want to make a general point that the fans and pundits alike consistently overestimate the importance of last season’s results to predicting the new one. When we finished 3rd in Klopp’s last season no one gave us a chance of being title contenders next season; when a team finishes at the top everyone assumes they will perform just as well next season, even though in reality it’s extremely hard to maintain consistent level of performance (I would say statistically a drop-off or an improvement of some sort is much more likely than standing still). I think there is more natural fluctuation in form and results between seasons than people realize and even absent any transfers teams and players can just have bad seasons and good seasons for no apparent reason at all - of course there are always underlying reasons, but they are usually quite subtle and mostly invisible to us fans at least until the season is done.

So all this to say I see no reason why Chelsea can’t jump from 4th to the top or why Arsenal or us are necessarily guaranteed a top-2 finish next season. I don’t see another team “invading” the top 4 at this point - the gap in quality between the best and the rest is just too big and is likely to get only bigger - but between those big 4, literally any combination is possible. So my answer, as unsatisfying as it might be, is that at present there is no clear favourite next season - anyone between us, Arsenal, Chelsea and City has a roughly equal 25% chance to finish at the top or in any of the 3 positions below. A lot will depend on luck, individual player form and fitness and starting the season well.
 
rurikbird said:
I know it’s early, but based on the transfer window so far and just your hunch how would you rank the title chances of the top 4 teams (Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City and Chelsea) next season?

Liverpool
Last season’s points tally: 84
Additions: Wirtz, Kerkez, Frimpong, Mamardashvili
Potential additions: A new #9 and a like-for-like replacement for anyone leaving
Losses: Trent, Kelleher, Jota RIP 🙁
Potential losses: Konate, Nunez, Diaz, Elliott, Chiesa

Arsenal
Last season’s points tally: 74
Additions: Gyokeres, Zubimendi, Madueke, Norgaard, Kepa
Potential additions: Eze
Losses: #Partey#
Potential losses: Martinelli, Sterling

Man City
Last season’s points tally: 71
Additions: Reijnders, Cherki, Ait-Nouri, Rodri returning from the ACL
Potential additions: A new RB, another winger
Losses: De Bruyne, Grealish
Potential losses: Bernardo Silva, Gundogan, Nico Gonzalez

Chelsea
Last season’s points tally: 69
Additions: Pedro, Delap, Gittens
Potential additions: Every winger or striker under the s*n
Losses: Sancho, Chilwell, Madueke
Potential losses: Nicholas Jackson, Nkunku

Before I try to answer my own question, I want to make a general point that the fans and pundits alike consistently overestimate the importance of last season’s results to predicting the new one. When we finished 3rd in Klopp’s last season no one gave us a chance of being title contenders next season; when a team finishes at the top everyone assumes they will perform just as well next season, even though in reality it’s extremely hard to maintain consistent level of performance (I would say statistically a drop-off or an improvement of some sort is much more likely than standing still). I think there is more natural fluctuation in form and results between seasons than people realize and even absent any transfers teams and players can just have bad seasons and good seasons for no apparent reason at all - of course there are always underlying reasons, but they are usually quite subtle and mostly invisible to us fans at least until the season is done.

So all this to say I see no reason why Chelsea can’t jump from 4th to the top or why Arsenal or us are necessarily guaranteed a top-2 finish next season. I don’t see another team “invading” the top 4 at this point - the gap in quality between the best and the rest is just too big and is likely to get only bigger - but between those big 4, literally any combination is possible. So my answer, as unsatisfying as it might be, is that at present there is no clear favourite next season - anyone between us, Arsenal, Chelsea and City has a roughly equal 25% chance to finish at the top or in any of the 3 positions below. A lot will depend on luck, individual player form and fitness and starting the season well.
Click to expand...

Are you predicting Chelsea to rise to the top of the PL based on the transfer window or after yesterdays result?

I see no obvious change of strength in any of the other teams yet, in all honesty. Better depth but no real marquee signing to push them forward.
We have gotten better as well from a winning position.

Luck with form and injuries will in no doubt count for much of it, but it could be a very tight race for the title. I don’t think Maresca is good enough, Arteta is a serial loser but Pep can get City to win again.
 
I do think Chelsea will be much better this year. Like us, last year they didnt have a striker who could put the goals away (or any forward really), whereas we had a once in a generation season from Salah. Pedro seems like the kind of linking striker they (and we) needed. The defence might still be iffy for them, but they've bought well so far.
 
I think City and Chelsea are going to be fucked come Christmas. We have been off since 27 April and had our first preseason game on Sunday with some players not even in the squad. City played a week or so ago and Chelsea yesterday.

Arsenal have lost their second most important midfielder. They will also have that mental drain from being runners up again. Like ruik says, this could be a season where they dip rather than remain right towards the top.

It’s going to be an interesting season. With us finishing top of the pile.
 
Fabio said:
I do think Chelsea will be much better this year. Like us, last year they didnt have a striker who could put the goals away (or any forward really), whereas we had a once in a generation season from Salah. Pedro seems like the kind of linking striker they (and we) needed. The defence might still be iffy for them, but they've bought well so far.
Click to expand...

Delap and Joao Pedro aren’t goalscorers though.
 
Accedalyday said:
yup, unless palmer, neto etc all pick it up, it will not work as well as it did for us.
Click to expand...
They still probably need to add a goalscorer, but Pedro does help them a lot by linking their attack together - you can only go so far with individualistic wingers playing their own separate little games. Now their front like has makings of a unit - that’s progress.
 
As you say, it's always hard to make predictions because what looks good on paper doesn't always translate to the pitch.

I expect this to be a really tough season. Last year we ran away with it despite not being a great team ourselves. We have had a good summer so far but I think the other three teams will start the season improved and ready too. I expect City to be more like their usual selves and Chelsea to be more consistent.

Sometimes it's all about that initial momentum as well. If you start slow, it's hard to make up that lost ground. It's not always easy to determine which signings / teams are just going to "click" from the off.

Anyways, long winded way of saying I don't know. I'd like to see us do it and I hope I'm wrong but feel like this might be a belated transition season for us.
 
Chelsea and City's problem will be managing the fitness of the squad after Fifa's show pony event. They won't have a proper pre-season and are likely to suffer more with injuries as a result. Arsenal can sign all the greatest players in the world but I think they have a mentality problem. I've said this before but Arteta is too quick to start blaming everything else and leaning into conspiracies about referees and how they have worse luck with injuries than anyone. The players have bought into that too.

Our issue will be whether we can sign a goalscorer and integrate everyone into the team quick enough.
 
Arsenal’s signings, bar Zubimendi, don’t scream top drawer quality to me - all useful profiles to fill out the squad, but you need big personalities and winners and I suspect Arteta is afraid of dealing with those.

Whatever you think of Chelsea, they do have some personalities in that squad and Maresca being a somewhat crazy bellend also means he can hold his own.
 
I wouldn't write Newcastle off top four yet, as Chelsea remain too much of a wild-card to be guaranteed and the CWC could also heavily impact both Chelsea and City over the year.

I think we have had the best summer to date, but recognise that Gyokores, Pedro, Reijnders, Cherki, Ait-Nouri all look pretty good deals on paper.

Rodri will only be at 75% at best all year. An ACL injured player is never fully 'back' 12 months later. It's 18-24 months minimum.

It's a huge if, but if Arsenal can avoid injuries then they should be there until the final month, however I see no reason why Arsenal won't have another year of bad injuries. The management hasn't changed, they'll go hard in all competitions again, the more muscle injuries a player has, the more prone they are to happening again. It may not be as bad, but nobody would be surprised to see Saka snap his hamstring in Feb for 8 weeks and their season gets derailed again. Gyokeres will likely make them more threatening in open play and Nwaneri is a star in the making.

Logically I still have us down as the favourites, but there's still some important departures and incomings to be done by the end of the summer, likely far more than we ever wanted, the impact of Jota's passing is a huge variable. We won the title last year because of our form August to January. With those two factors in play, we may not have a smooth start. Ideally we it together, smash everyone in the first 8 weeks and remind everyone who's top dog.
 
Just thinking aloud: will World Cup year affect teams? Is it a good or a bad thing for Arsenal, let’s say, that their 2 key players are also key English Internationals?
 
rurikbird said:
Arsenal’s signings, bar Zubimendi, don’t scream top drawer quality to me - all useful profiles to fill out the squad, but you need big personalities and winners and I suspect Arteta is afraid of dealing with those.

Whatever you think of Chelsea, they do have some personalities in that squad and Maresca being a somewhat crazy bellend also means he can hold his own.
Click to expand...

Chelsea haven't got a good enough defense or goalkeeper to win the league either imho.
 
rurikbird said:
Yes, although Sanchez did look surprisingly decent lately. But defence is probably their weakest line at the moment.
Click to expand...

But that’s in a glorified pre season tournament were most games were against Tunisian and Brazilian teams.
He’s not a very good goalkeeper, but was for some reason insane against PSG.
 
i’m assuming a big jump from city with rodris return but it’s not guaranteed he comes back the same player.

i also find their squad to be very strange, lots of aged high level players and lots of younger players who might not be at the level required, few players between.

they do however have what is probably the best pair of strikers in the league.

hilariously calvin phillips is contracted to them until 2028, gold star for his agent
 
Hansern said:
Delap and Joao Pedro aren’t goalscorers though.
Click to expand...
Pedro is much better at bringing in other players, and there's every chance they'll buy that exact type of winger, or even neto and bynoe-gittens kick on . Add in Palmer is (annoyingly) an output machine (2nd half of the season not withstanding), they're closer than people think.

Playing with Nunez was an active handicap for us last year, just like Jackson was playing for them.
Equally, they're still looking at keepers and can half see them going back in for Maignan.

I don't think they're going to romp to the league, but they're definitely going to be closer to the pack going for the title.
 
Much depends on injuries.

That’s the bit we can’t predict, but probably affects the outcome of the season more than anything - whoever can get through with the fewest injuries to key players and can play consistently has a great chance of winning the league.

The second part of that, consistency, is also important, which is why I think if we churn too many players we’re just giving away an advantage.

Crazy to write off City, even if Rodri doesn’t hit previous highs, but equally, I do think they’re going through a re-set and they aren’t capable of bulldozing teams like they used to.

Chelsea just seem to struggle for consistency - they’ll go through periods where they look like real contenders and then others where they look like a bunch of strangers that have just met and can’t buy a win.

Arsenal - all jokes aside are keeping a large part of a good team together - Zubi should help them and allow Rice to play that box-to-box role that suits him. I don’t think they’re particularly bad on the left wing, not great, but still capable - their defence is well solid, so it’s down to a striker - if Gyokeres can score consistently over the season - then they’ll be in with a great chance of winning the league.

Newcastle will find it tough playing in the CLand trying to remain consistent in the league.

Spurs and Utd are shite, although probably not quite as shite as last year. No one else looks capable of breaking into top 6.

As for us - I honestly believe if we sell and replace Konate, Diaz & Nunez, with Jota to also be replaced, already a CB short and 2 new FBs and Wirtz to integrate l, then we’re no longer favourites to retain our title.

The caveat is that it depends on who we bring in as replacements - if we brought in a CB, LW & CF that’s at the same level as Wirtz… then maybe it’s be fine - but there’s such an obvious risk of drop off.

I’d also flag that the players that integrate the quickest and the easiest, are the ones with PL experience.
 
Fabio said:
Pedro is much better at bringing in other players, and there's every chance they'll buy that exact type of winger, or even neto and bynoe-gittens kick on . Add in Palmer is (annoyingly) an output machine (2nd half of the season not withstanding), they're closer than people think.

Playing with Nunez was an active handicap for us last year, just like Jackson was playing for them.
Equally, they're still looking at keepers and can half see them going back in for Maignan.

I don't think they're going to romp to the league, but they're definitely going to be closer to the pack going for the title.
Click to expand...

None of those players score enough goals, so they aren’t great in defense or attack.

Maignan is a marginal improvement and sideways move, not marquee.
 
Part of me thinks Arteta wanted Sesko (6’5), mostly for his size on set pieces, and went Gyokeres (6’2 and powerful) just for the same reason. That’s what it’s come to with that wannabe Pulis cunt and his set piece coach.
 
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