Betting 2012 weekly football bets.

[Pesam]

As I mentioned last season I have a very good record over the years and make a good profit each season. The problem is I don't confirm my bets until 2:30-3:00pm because I always wait to see the confirmed team news.

The bets I'm looking at in particular today are;

Laying QPR winning at home to Bolton
Laying Southampton winning at Barnsley
Laying Accrington winning at home to Southend
Layinf MK Dons winning at Exeter

I had a good start last weekend (bets below) but didn't have time to post on here because I was in Czech Republic and busy drinking. After commission I made about £280 so hopefully it's a good sign for the season ahead.

Once I see the confirmed teams I'll pop back and confirm which bets I'm doing.

Soccer / Stevenage v Exeter : Match Odds 06-Aug-11 15:00 06-Aug-11 17:12 70.00
Soccer / Port Vale v Crawley Town : Match Odds 06-Aug-11 15:00 06-Aug-11 17:06 111.15
Soccer / Wycombe v Scunthorpe : Match Odds 06-Aug-11 15:00 06-Aug-11 17:01 78.85
Soccer / Carlisle v Notts Co : Match Odds 06-Aug-11 15:00 06-Aug-11 16:58 165.07
Soccer / Oldham v Sheff Utd : Match Odds Unmanaged 06-Aug-11 15:00 06-Aug-11 16:56 -107.42
Soccer / Bristol City v Ipswich : Match Odds 06-Aug-11 15:00 06-Aug-11 16:55 -34.85

 

[Pesam]

2 bets off already - I'm not convinced by the Bolton line up and Southends best centre back isn't playing because of Ramadan!

 

[Pesam]

Confirmed bets.

Small lay of Burton winning at home to Shrewsbury at 3.1
Medium lay Notts County winning at home to Charlton 2.56
Medium lay of Southampton winning at Barnsley 2.2
Small lay of Bournemouth beating Wednesday 2.44

Quite annoyed actually, I had high hopes for this week but some important players missing for teams I fancied so I'll stick with these 4. I don't have my usuallevelof confidence this week - I'll settle for a small profit.

 

[redsar]

Cheers. Looking forward to this. I was an avid follower of your threads over the past 2-3 seasons, although I only bet on small amounts here and there.

 

[Pesam]

Thanks Redsar.

I'll update this tomorrow when I'm in the office because I'm having all sorts of internet problems at home at the moment and might lose connection soon.

Medium bet today Laying Cardiif winning at home to Bristol City @ 1.87

* Just a reminder "laying" = betting against.

 

[redsar]

Tough luck this weekend. The beginning of the season is always tricky.

 

[Spionkop69]

Alright, own up!

Who has stolen Pesam's login details?

 

[Piedro]

Haven't had a bet on the footy yet apart from my league winners one at start of season.

3 x £5 doubles and a £5 treble, west ham @ 4s, sheff utd @ 9s and crawley @ 3s. All 3 started okish.

 

[SummerOnions]

I had Dzeko to score first and 5-0, gutted.

 

[Pesam]

Unlucky SummerOnions.

I usually do very well at the beginning of the season, last season being the exception - I didn't get into profit until october.

Soccer / Cardiff v Bristol City : Match Odds 14-Aug-11 15:00 14-Aug-11 17:01 -124.00
Soccer / Burton v Shrewsbury : Match Odds 13-Aug-11 15:00 13-Aug-11 17:09 38.04
Soccer / Barnsley v Southampton : Match Odds 13-Aug-11 15:00 13-Aug-11 16:58 -188.77
Soccer / Notts Co v Charlton : Match Odds 13-Aug-11 15:00 13-Aug-11 16:57 95.10
Soccer / Bournemouth v Sheff Wed : Match Odds 13-Aug-11 15:00 13-Aug-11 16:51 -50.40

Overall loss of about £230 so marginally ahead for the season*

I'm not counting the 3% challenge bet (which I'll try again) as that's a "fun" bet and i don't expect to be succesful in the long run.

My internet is not working at home and BT/SKY are messing me around with regards to who is coming out to fix it. I'll have to go to my ex-girlfriends tonight for my research and to get on Betfair but should have time to post on here too.

 

[Pesam]

Such a ball ache not having internet at home - I'm having to rush everything but i have 4 runners tonight......................++

Small lay of Reading winning at Pompey @ 2.54
Medium lay of Forest winning at Doncaster @2.2
Small lay of Southampton winning at Ipswich @ 2.7
Medium lay of Colchester winning at home to Charlton @ 2.62

 

[Pesam]

Small profit of £18 (after commission).

Soccer / Portsmouth v Reading : Match Odds 16-Aug-11 19:45 16-Aug-11 21:45 66.57
Soccer / Doncaster v Nottm Forest : Match Odds 16-Aug-11 19:45 16-Aug-11 21:41 -120.00
Soccer / Colchester v Charlton : Match Odds 16-Aug-11 19:45 16-Aug-11 21:41 114.12
Soccer / Ipswich v Southampton : Match Odds 16-Aug-11 19:45 16-Aug-11 21:38 -42.50

 

[Pesam]

Very little value this week so just a few small bets

Small bet over 2.5 goals Brighton v Blackpool

Small bet over 2.5 goals Rotherham v Barnet

Small bet Laying Crawley winning at Torquay @ 2.2

Small bet laying Stevenage winning v Hartlepool @ 1.85

Edit: and a small lay of Forest beating Leicester @ 2.64

 

[SummerOnions]

Made a profit of £100 over this last week, delighted!

 

[Pesam]

Soccer / Torquay v Crawley Town : Match Odds 20-Aug-11 15:00 20-Aug-11 17:04 -74.40
Soccer / Nottm Forest v Leicester : Match Odds 20-Aug-11 15:00 20-Aug-11 17:03 38.04
Soccer / Rotherham v Barnet : Over/Under 2.5 goals 20-Aug-11 15:00 20-Aug-11 17:01 33.86
Soccer / Stevenage v Hartlepool : Match Odds 20-Aug-11 15:00 20-Aug-11 16:53 73.23
Soccer / Brighton v Blackpool : Over/Under 2.5 goals 20-Aug-11 15:00 20-Aug-11 16:23 41.84

4 winning bets out of 5 = £113 profit.

 

[Pesam]

Small lay of Reading winning at Charlton @2.3

Edit: Soccer / Charlton v Reading : Match Odds 23-Aug-11 19:45 23-Aug-11 21:47 33.28

Profit for the season so far £220.

 

[Pesam]

I've layed Newcastle tonight £200 @ 1.68 (i.e. either win £200 or lose £136)

I rarely bet before I see the confirmed team news but I thought this was too good a price to ignore. If Newcastle field a weakened team (and I think they might) that price will shoot to about 1.85 and if they don't I'm comfortable enough with the bet as it is because Scunny are no mugs.

Scunny could also rest a few players but I don't think they will and I'm prepared to take that chance.

If the price does change before kick off to something around 1.85 I might trade back some of the bet i.e. put maybe £60 on Newcastle to give me a better overall price.

 

[Rosco]

big call

 

[Pesam]

If Scunny score first I'll probably sell.

Also, £11 on Bobby Grant 1st goalscorer at 11.5

Edit: 1-0 to Scunny after 15 minutes - I have put £40 on Toon at 2.9 so now my liability is £60 and my potential profit is £160.

Edit: still 1-0 after 37 minutes, another £10 layed off at 3.5 so now £35 liability and £150 potential profit

 

[redsar]

1-0 half time. So far, so good.

 

[Pesam]

[quote author=redsar link=topic=46434.msg1387219#msg1387219 date=1314301241]
1-0 half time. So far, so good.
[/quote]

Scunny could fade in the 2nd half and could also defend too deep so I've layed them £20 at evens - so my bets now stands at a £15 loss if Toon win, £130 win on Scunny winning and £170 on the draw.

Edit: 1-1 with 5 minutes to go and I'm in profit on all outcomes; £55 Newcastle, £140 draw and £165 Scunny.

 

[redsar]

1-1 FT. Nice profit mate.

What's your experience with goal markets? Lately, I've been laying under 4,5 goals and trading after a goal or two have been scored. Early goals are good for this strategy but even if there aren't any liability is usually small. I have managed to increase my bank by 30% in the last week or so.

 

[Pesam]

Soccer / Scunthorpe v Newcastle : Match Odds 25-Aug-11 19:45 25-Aug-11 21:44 131.78
Soccer / Scunthorpe v Newcastle : First Goalscorer 25-Aug-11 19:45 25-Aug-11 20:39 -11.00

Profit for the season now at £340

 

[Pesam]

[quote author=redsar link=topic=46434.msg1387249#msg1387249 date=1314304928]
1-1 FT. Nice profit mate.

What's your experience with goal markets? Lately, I've been laying under 4,5 goals and trading after a goal or two have been scored. Early goals are good for this strategy but even if there aren't any liability is usually small. I have managed to increase my bank by 30% in the last week or so.
[/quote]

Cheers Redsar.

I don't really have any betting "strategies", I'm sure I've bet on pretty much every market possible in my football betting. I check the team news and then guage what type of bet offer the best chance of a profit and then check to see if there is value in the price. Laying under 4.5 goals can be a decent bet as long as you know that there are defensive weaknesses in either (or preferably both) defences and that there are decent forwards to take advantage.

Last week for instance I bet on over 2.5 goals in two games because I liked all 4 teams going forward but didn't trust them defensively. I couldn't make up my mind who would win these games but over 2.5 goals seemed very likely and I was proved right.

I would imagine that about 70% of my bets are a standard lay of a team I don't fancy but I do check all possibilities of other types of bet as you never know where the best value will be.

Have you spotted any games you fancy for over 4.5 goals this weekend?

 

[SummerOnions]

Pesam, can you further explain the 'lay' bit?

I choose the profit i want to make on it then offer that with odds to a backer. Is that right?

 

[Gerry_A_Trick]

Just imagine you're the bookie. If you lay a tenner (and your bet is matched), it means someone else will have put a tenner on the bet. If you win you'll keep the tenner, if you lose you'll have to pay them a tenner times the odds.

 

[redsar]

@Pesam

This weekend I'll try these...

Ajax v Vitesse / Fri, 26 August 19:00 / lay under 4.5 goals at 1.25
Hoffenheim v W. Bremen / Sat, 27 August 14:30 / lay under 4.5 goals at 1.21
Kaiserslautern v B Munich / Sat, 27 August 14:30 / lay under 4.5 goals at 1.26
Chelsea v Norwich / Sat, 27 August 15:00 / lay under 4.5 goals at 1.31
Ipswich v Leeds / Sat, 27 August 15:00 / lay under 4.5 goals at 1.24
Leicester v Southampton / Sat, 27 August 15:00 / lay under 4.5 goals at 1.17
Zaragoza v Real Madrid / S**, 28 August 19:00 / lay under 4.5 goals at 1.29

My idea is to trade higher (hopefully) at some point when a goal or two are eventually scored. Unless there's a goal frenzy in the first 15-20 minutes, in which case I might be tempted to go all the way 😉

I usually concentrate on leagues with higher goal averages such as Dutch Eredivisie or Bundesliga. There are also many teams from other leagues that are worth a punt, based on statistics from the last couple of seasons. That's the starting criteria for selection. Important factors to take into consideration are current form, the opponent, changes in the squad due to injuries, incoming cup games/internationals etc. I try to find some value by laying at odds between 1.15 and 1.35 (under 4.5 goals market). I'm not overly keen on odds above 1.35. Unfortunately, teams that score lots of goals (Barca, Real, Ajax, PSV, Bayern, Porto, Benfica...) usually have slightly inflated laying odds for this market (above 1.40) depending on the opposition.

 

[Pesam]

[quote author=redsar link=topic=46434.msg1387548#msg1387548 date=1314364835]
@Pesam

This weekend I'll try these...

Ajax v Vitesse / Fri, 26 August 19:00 / lay under 4.5 goals at 1.25
Hoffenheim v W. Bremen / Sat, 27 August 14:30 / lay under 4.5 goals at 1.21
Kaiserslautern v B Munich / Sat, 27 August 14:30 / lay under 4.5 goals at 1.26
Chelsea v Norwich / Sat, 27 August 15:00 / lay under 4.5 goals at 1.31
Ipswich v Leeds / Sat, 27 August 15:00 / lay under 4.5 goals at 1.24
Leicester v Southampton / Sat, 27 August 15:00 / lay under 4.5 goals at 1.17
Zaragoza v Real Madrid / S**, 28 August 19:00 / lay under 4.5 goals at 1.29

My idea is to trade higher (hopefully) at some point when a goal or two are eventually scored. Unless there's a goal frenzy in the first 15-20 minutes, in which case I might be tempted to go all the way 😉

I usually concentrate on leagues with higher goal averages such as Dutch Eredivisie or Bundesliga. There are also many teams from other leagues that are worth a punt, based on statistics from the last couple of seasons. That's the starting criteria for selection. Important factors to take into consideration are current form, the opponent, changes in the squad due to injuries, incoming cup games/internationals etc. I try to find some value by laying at odds between 1.15 and 1.35 (under 4.5 goals market). I'm not overly keen on odds above 1.35. Unfortunately, teams who score lots of goals (Barca, Real, Ajax, PSV, Bayern, Porto, Benfica...) usually have slightly inflated laying odds for this market (above 1.40) depending on the opposition.
[/quote]

I like the fact that you're bascially betting on decent priced outsiders and there seems to be decent value in some of those bets.

Leeds v Ipswich is an interesting one because Leeds are capable of scoring a few BUT Ipswich have this week signed a decent (at this level) CB in Sonko from Stoke and jimmy Bullard from Hull so they might tighten up a bit defensively - also their weakest CB is suspended.

Until Norwich buy a decent CB I can see them shipping goals so that could be over 4.5 easily enough.

I'd be confident there'll be a few goals in the Leicester v Saints game so even if there aren't 5 you should at least be able to trade out at some stage if needs be.

The other matches mean nothing to me as I don't watch much overseas football and I only bet on teams I've seen recently or matches in which I know the relative merits of most of the players.

Do you watch much overseas football?

 

[Pesam]

[quote author=SummerOnions link=topic=46434.msg1387531#msg1387531 date=1314363661]
Pesam, can you further explain the 'lay' bit?

I choose the profit i want to make on it then offer that with odds to a backer. Is that right?
[/quote]

If you don't think Arsenal can beat United on Sunday you can lay them at 7.8 but if you want to lay a lower price you can put in 7.2 or 7.4 but then you're relying on all the bets at 7.8 and 7.6 being taken i.e. your bet might not get matched.

I did a rather cunning one last night, some mug offered 400/1 on Scunthorpe winning in extra time when they had just gone 2-1 down with 8 minutes to go. This was obviously a crazy price because Scunthorpe had a much better than 400/1 chance of scoring 2 in 8 minutes. I took the bet and then offered the same bet for 200/1 @ £2 which was duly accepted by someone. It gave me a free £400 bet on Scunny scoring twice and winning. Obviously they didn't BUT I do get some of these bets to come in once every season or two and at no risk.

 

[redsar]

[quote author=Pesam link=topic=46434.msg1387558#msg1387558 date=1314365607]
I like the fact that you're bascially betting on decent priced outsiders and there seems to be decent value in some of those bets.

Leeds v Ipswich is an interesting one because Leeds are capable of scoring a few BUT Ipswich have this week signed a decent (at this level) CB in Sonko from Stoke and jimmy Bullard from Hull so they might tighten up a bit defensively - also their weakest CB is suspended.

Until Norwich buy a decent CB I can see them shipping goals so that could be over 4.5 easily enough.

I'd be confident there'll be a few goals in the Leicester v Saints game so even if there aren't 5 you should at least be able to trade out at some stage if needs be.

The other matches mean nothing to me as I don't watch much overseas football and I only bet on teams I've seen recently or matches in which I know the relative merits of most of the players.

Do you watch much overseas football?
[/quote]

I mostly watch Premiership but also some of the Championship, Bundesliga and Dutch football. Basically anything that's on TV (I'm from Bosnia, btw). I used to watch Spanish and Italian football too but in the last two years no TV station bought the rights for these leagues (besides El Clasico games). I also watch the odd game on the internet. I must say I'm not as studious as you are when it comes to team and player analysis so I appreciate your comments and suggestions 🙂

Edit: Laying odds for Ajax v Vitesse game have skyrocketed to 1.50. When I looked earlier today it was 1.25. How the heck did that happen...