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Is this the most competitive title race in history?

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Dreambeliever

Dreambeliever

From Doubter to Believer (to doubter again)
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The numbers say yes.



Premier League title race: Liverpool and their challengers are breaking records

By Simon Gleave
Head of sports analysis, Gracenote
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_105047982_topofthepremierleague.png

In almost any other year, Liverpool would be nailed on to win the Premier League.
Only three top-flight teams in the last 113 years have recorded a better points total after 21 matches than Liverpool (re-calculating all seasons to three points for a win).
But the Reds find themselves doing this in a season in which the points totals for the teams in second and third are unprecedented.
A team with a points total as big as Liverpool's could usually expect to have a lead in double figures at this point.
But with a gap of only four points to second-placed Manchester City, Liverpool do not have that luxury.
The Euro Club Index - a ranking of all European teams - estimates Liverpool's chance of winning the league at 56.6%, ahead of Manchester City's 33.5% and Tottenham Hotspur's 8.6%.
Even fourth-placed Chelsea, 10 points behind Liverpool, cannot be written off yet as the Blues have a 1% chance of a shock title win.
In fact, Chelsea's total of 44 points is the joint highest for a fourth-placed team at this stage.
Here is how dominant the Premier League's top sides have been this season:
Liverpool being made to work

Recent attention has concentrated on Liverpool failing to win the league title when leading at Christmas but in each of those seasons, their lead was small.
In fact, the leads Liverpool had at Christmas in 2008 and 2013 had already been lost by this point. The only previous Premier League season in which Liverpool led after 21 matches was 1996-97 - by two points from Arsenal and four ahead of eventual champions Manchester United.
This season Liverpool are another beast altogether, recording one of the best opening 21 matches in the English top flight since 1905-1906, when 20 teams competed for the first time.
Normally such a start would result in a sizeable lead at this stage but Liverpool's four-point cushion is the smallest of any team with at least 52 points at this stage.
Every team with at least 52 points after 21 matches has been crowned English champions, with Chelsea's five-point lead over Arsenal in 2004-05 the smallest.
[xtable]
{thead}
{tr}
{th=colspan:5}Clubs with at least 52 points after 21 top-flight matches since 1905-1906{/th}
{/tr}
{/thead}
{tfoot}
{tr}
{td=colspan:5}Preston North End (1888-1889) and Sunderland (1892-1893) would also qualify but their seasons were only 22 and 30 matches long respectively. All seasons recalculated to three points for a win - information provided by Gracenote.{/td}
{/tr}
{/tfoot}
{tbody}
{tr}
{td}Season{/td}
{td}Club{/td}
{td}Points after 21 games{/td}
{td}Final position{/td}
{td}Closest challengers (points){/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}2017-18{/td}
{td}Man City{/td}
{td}59{/td}
{td}Champions{/td}
{td}Chelsea (45){/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}2005-06{/td}
{td}Chelsea{/td}
{td}58{/td}
{td}Champions{/td}
{td}Man Utd (45){/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}1960-61{/td}
{td}Tottenham{/td}
{td}56{/td}
{td}Champions{/td}
{td}Wolves, Burnley, Everton (45){/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}2018-19{/td}
{td}Liverpool{/td}
{td}54{/td}
{td}?{/td}
{td}Man City (50){/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}1907-08{/td}
{td}Man Utd{/td}
{td}53{/td}
{td}Champions{/td}
{td}Sheffield Wednesday (38){/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}2006-07{/td}
{td}Man Utd{/td}
{td}53{/td}
{td}Champions{/td}
{td}Chelsea (47){/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}1987-88{/td}
{td}Liverpool{/td}
{td}53{/td}
{td}Champions{/td}
{td}Nottingham Forest (43){/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}2012-13{/td}
{td}Man Utd{/td}
{td}52{/td}
{td}Champions{/td}
{td}Man City (45){/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}1993-94{/td}
{td}Man Utd{/td}
{td}52{/td}
{td}Champions{/td}
{td}Leeds, Blackburn (39){/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}2016-17{/td}
{td}Chelsea{/td}
{td}52{/td}
{td}Champions{/td}
{td}Liverpool, Tottenham (45){/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}2004-05{/td}
{td}Chelsea{/td}
{td}52{/td}
{td}Champions{/td}
{td}Arsenal (47){/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]
The difference between Liverpool and dominant teams in the past is that the Reds have a genuine rival for the title, and possibly even two.
Liverpool's contenders break records

The 2-1 victory over Liverpool on 3 January made Manchester City the first top-flight team to get 50 points from their first 21 matches and not be top of the league.
The previous best points total for a team in second at this stage was Liverpool in 1990-91, with 49 points after 21 matches, but behind Arsenal on goal difference, and Arsenal's 'Invincibles', who had 49 points after 21 matches in 2003-04 but were a point behind Manchester United.
To continue the pattern, Tottenham's 48 points is the highest ever of any third-placed team. The previous best was the 46 points for Spurs in 2011-12 and Chelsea in 2013-14.
One of the key reasons for Tottenham's points total this season is their complete lack of draws.
Tottenham are only the second post-war team to go 21 games into a season without a draw, with Burnley in 1953-54 the other.
Best of the rest

Chelsea's 44 points is a record-equalling total for the team in fourth at this stage and only Arsenal, two seasons ago, have failed to finish in the top three after picking up that number of points for 21 games.
Even fifth place has an unusually high points total, with Arsenal's 41 enough for a top-four spot at this point of the season in all but three previous campaigns.
Even much maligned Manchester United have a relatively high number of points for a sixth place team at this stage. Only seven teams outside the top five have managed 38 points or more after 21 matches.
With success, there comes failure


Statistics say Terriers' are relegated - Wagner
However, with this sort of dominance from the big six, there must also be some historically low points totals.
Bottom club Huddersfield Town's 10 points is the lowest by any Premier League team at this stage since Derby County managed seven in their first 21 matches 11 seasons ago - every team in history with Huddersfield's current tally has been relegated from the top flight.
And it only looks slightly more optimistic for Fulham, whose 14 points is the lowest for a team in 19th position for six years. The Cottagers are one of only four teams in the 20-team Premier League era to record 14 points or fewer at this stage and not be bottom.

Surely whoever wins it from here it will go down as the greatest ever title victory?

Amazing to think the top 4 have a record points today for each position so far.

Can it be sustainable?
 
I think it can be sustainable if the players of those challenging clubs stay fit for the rest of the season - with injuries if any kept to an absolute minimum and not impacting key players within those teams.

In terms of the craziness of the current situation - the effect is like a wet dream of those capitalists who love the idea of free markets and competition. Man City - set an new standard last season in terms of consistency and not having bad days. Everyone that wants the title will know that they cannot trip up - and I think it is getting the best out of the top teams like never before. There is an absolute fear of failing to qualify for the CL, and the top players want to qualify, they know that the top clubs only have limited places for the very best, and if they want to join that party they have to perform in the challenging clubs. I think this might become the new normal if it stays like this - otherwise the alternative is a single club challenging City every season while Pep is in charge.

The other factor now is that we have some of the best coaches in Europe managing these teams, granted Poch, and Sarri have not won stuff but you cannot argue that Poch is maximising what he has available. All of these coaches are quite ruthless in their approach and our Klopp is no different given how much our team has changed since his arrival.
 
You have to remember we are the only team who has fucked it up being in the lead at Christmas....TWICE.
 
Is this going to be used as an excuse at the end of the of season?
 
Brizzle said:
It is up to us to stop it being competitive - keep winning.
Click to expand...
This is the only way.
@Dreambeliever - thinking about the league being competitive and looking back...I actually think we are discussing this way to early. Apart from last season we could argue that close challenges have taken place. Under Rodgers our own last go at it was very close with city winning by 2 ppints and Chelsea right behind us. Then there was that Leicester title winning season where Spurs were chasing.
Also the last Chelsea winning season I think upto Christmas were we not initially leading and then injuries kicked in and they took over ?

Maybe the way to look at all this is ...same old shit but with better consistency from the top clubs.
 
Brizzle said:
It is up to us to stop it being competitive - keep winning.
Click to expand...
If we do that until the end of the season then it will STILL be competitive because City are not going to stop.

It's going to be tense and it's going to be fraught with danger but we can do it if we hold our nerve and the injury gods favour us.
 
Yep - hoping for a Conor Coady shut out versus city with a flash of the 5 times salute at the end to the away support.
 
I imagine , results against sides outside of the top 6 will be the same as those in the first half of the season , pretty much .

We still have Utd, spurs and Everton to play they still have Arsenal , Chelsea , Everton (all three in a row in feb) utd and spurs on last day of season.

Not to mention they're going to have two more league cup games , one against spurs or Chelsea and however many FA cup matches and cl matches. They have a deeper squad for sure but shit could go down to the wire even we spaff the 4pt lead In the near future , alternatively our 4pt lead stretches to double figures if they fluff Feb !
 
HC said:
I imagine , results against sides outside of the top 6 will be the same as those in the first half of the season , pretty much .

We still have Utd, spurs and Everton to play they still have Arsenal , Chelsea , Everton (all three in a row in feb) utd and spurs on last day of season.

Not to mention they're going to have two more league cup games , one against spurs or Chelsea and however many FA cup matches and cl matches. They have a deeper squad for sure but shit could go down to the wire even we spaff the 4pt lead In the near future , alternatively our 4pt lead stretches to double figures if they fluff Feb !
Click to expand...
The second half of the season has just started, we have virtually the same teams stil to play ;) As in they also still have United and Spurs and we also still have Chelsea ;)
 
Frogfish said:
The second half of the season has just started, we have virtually the same teams stil to play ;) As in they also still have United and Spurs and we also still have Chelsea ;)
Click to expand...
I've literally posted the fixtures against the top sides .........
 
Fabio said:
I say you were being pedantic and a smartarse
Click to expand...
Wrong. I was completing the list of Top 6 teams to play. There was nothing smartarse about it, it happens a hundred times day on here, people correcting others' minor slips. They are not all followed by snidey remarks from other posters though. On second thoughts maybe you just simply prefer to have a limited picture to take in, in which case as you were.
 
HC said:
I imagine , results against sides outside of the top 6 will be the same as those in the first half of the season , pretty much .

We still have Utd, spurs and Everton to play they still have Arsenal , Chelsea , Everton (all three in a row in feb) utd and spurs on last day of season.

Not to mention they're going to have two more league cup games , one against spurs or Chelsea and however many FA cup matches and cl matches. They have a deeper squad for sure but shit could go down to the wire even we spaff the 4pt lead In the near future , alternatively our 4pt lead stretches to double figures if they fluff Feb !
Click to expand...

I cannot see the top 3 not faltering at some stage against the relegation threatened teams fighting for survival.

Imagine if all three teams make the CL semi final
 
Pesam said:
For the record the most competitive league title chase was in 1971/72 when Derby won the league with 58 points and Liverpool, Arsenal and Leeds all finished on 57 points.
Click to expand...

Fuck that’s nuts.

Did it go down to the last game?

Still would have been only a title win in the 80 something mark so more a case of no extradordinary team or were there less teams then?
 
Dreambeliever said:
Fuck that’s nuts.

Did it go down to the last game?

Still would have been only a title win in the 80 something mark so more a case of no extradordinary team or were there less teams then?
Click to expand...
I've no idea what you mean in that last paragraph...

I think it was only two points for a victory then, wasn't it?
 
Athens said:
I've no idea what you mean in that last paragraph...

I think it was only two points for a victory then, wasn't it?
Click to expand...

Yes I mean if you converted the 2 pointers to 3 then 58 would end up somewhere in the low. 80’s.
 
Dreambeliever said:
Yes I mean if you converted the 2 pointers to 3 then 58 would end up somewhere in the low. 80’s.
Click to expand...
Well the top four teams finished with one point separating them, so they must have dropped points against each other. Was there not shit loads of teams in the top flight then?
 
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