Its back baby!!! Superbowl BABY!!
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GOD HATES THE STEELERS
(those who understand will understand)
(those who understand will understand)
R
RedZeppelin
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christ i really hate that tebow fool and i'm not even sure why .
Tebow's brill. He's like a real life video game character. Dude is straight balls as a quarterback but comes into every game with half a dozen power-ups and he knows how to use them. Christ, I hope Denver win the Superbowl. Elway won't know whether to have the gay sex with Tebow or hang himself.
[quote author=MC Golgotha link=topic=46797.msg1460547#msg1460547 date=1326124546]
Tebow's brill. He's like a real life video game character. Dude is straight balls as a quarterback but comes into every game with half a dozen power-ups and he knows how to use them. Christ, I hope Denver win the Superbowl. Elway won't know whether to have the gay sex with Tebow or hang himself.
[/quote]
Golg - I'm no NFL expert, so educate me here. Every Broncos fan I went to the game with and everyone I spoke to last week said they'd no hope of beating the Steelers, primarily because of TT. I had one guy lecturing me for half an hour on how he "can't throw".
I've not watched enough, nor do I know enough about him to argue this. Surely that's bullshit, no?
Tebow's brill. He's like a real life video game character. Dude is straight balls as a quarterback but comes into every game with half a dozen power-ups and he knows how to use them. Christ, I hope Denver win the Superbowl. Elway won't know whether to have the gay sex with Tebow or hang himself.
[/quote]
Golg - I'm no NFL expert, so educate me here. Every Broncos fan I went to the game with and everyone I spoke to last week said they'd no hope of beating the Steelers, primarily because of TT. I had one guy lecturing me for half an hour on how he "can't throw".
I've not watched enough, nor do I know enough about him to argue this. Surely that's bullshit, no?
He takes an eternity to release the ball, and his accuracy is woeful, yet he wins.
He truly is the messiah.
He truly is the messiah.
[quote author=SaintGeorge67 link=topic=46797.msg1460598#msg1460598 date=1326128208]
He takes an eternity to release the ball, and his accuracy is woeful, yet he wins.
He truly is the messiah.
[/quote]I havnt seen enough of them to know but their O-line was ridiculous against us. We got near him ONCE in the game. We were missing Hampton and Keisel but still, they gave him so much time.
I also thought he was amazing at disguising hand offs, one of the best ive seen in fact.
If your O-line can protect you that much and you can disguise plays that well AND grind hard yards AND when needed hail mary the fuck out of it, you will always have a chance.
Like i say ive only seen him a couple of times but hes got the tools to fit that team for sure.
That said Brady will lacerate him next week. A half fit Ben nearly did enough.
He takes an eternity to release the ball, and his accuracy is woeful, yet he wins.
He truly is the messiah.
[/quote]I havnt seen enough of them to know but their O-line was ridiculous against us. We got near him ONCE in the game. We were missing Hampton and Keisel but still, they gave him so much time.
I also thought he was amazing at disguising hand offs, one of the best ive seen in fact.
If your O-line can protect you that much and you can disguise plays that well AND grind hard yards AND when needed hail mary the fuck out of it, you will always have a chance.
Like i say ive only seen him a couple of times but hes got the tools to fit that team for sure.
That said Brady will lacerate him next week. A half fit Ben nearly did enough.
He had 316 yards last night
Tim 3:16!
Tim 3:16!
[quote author=SaintGeorge67 link=topic=46797.msg1459451#msg1459451 date=1325996317]
Congratulations JJ.
I am immensely proud of my Lions though. What a wonderful season.
[/quote]
You're right to be. I think better times are around the corner for them.
Congratulations JJ.
I am immensely proud of my Lions though. What a wonderful season.
[/quote]
You're right to be. I think better times are around the corner for them.
[/quote]
I also thought he was amazing at disguising hand offs, one of the best ive seen in fact.
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This is something that doesn't get mentioned enough. People are like, "Oh, he just runs the option." Yeah, but not many people do it as well as Tebow does.
His mechanics are a fucking mess. He hangs the thing out wide and low and his release takes an eternity. He has a worse spiral than Trent Dilfer and in the medium range seems to spray the cunt about completely without regard.
But he's not dreadful at play-action, and they're learning that they can get people free and he'll find them. If you just watch his highlights his deep accuracy looks alright, but it's astonishing how inconsistent he is. Baffles me.
I just like him. I liked watching him for the Gators, and was happy to see them win (mostly because is there a bigger cunt in the world than Nick Saban?), and now it's just hilarious watching him inexplicably win games and win them late. Big games, very late. Gwan Tebow.
I have no idea how Denver can make any type of long term plans around him though, being as his tactics to win matches are either so absurdly random as to elude normal human analysis, or they really are divine. I guess they can just give him a shit hot D, a wall for an O-line, and give McGahee someone else to make mad carries with. And hope Tebow pulls it out of his arse at some point in each match. Working so far. Sort of.
Also, I'm not sure James Harrison should be allowed to play with a helmet anymore. Dude is pure danger.
I also thought he was amazing at disguising hand offs, one of the best ive seen in fact.
[/quote]
This is something that doesn't get mentioned enough. People are like, "Oh, he just runs the option." Yeah, but not many people do it as well as Tebow does.
His mechanics are a fucking mess. He hangs the thing out wide and low and his release takes an eternity. He has a worse spiral than Trent Dilfer and in the medium range seems to spray the cunt about completely without regard.
But he's not dreadful at play-action, and they're learning that they can get people free and he'll find them. If you just watch his highlights his deep accuracy looks alright, but it's astonishing how inconsistent he is. Baffles me.
I just like him. I liked watching him for the Gators, and was happy to see them win (mostly because is there a bigger cunt in the world than Nick Saban?), and now it's just hilarious watching him inexplicably win games and win them late. Big games, very late. Gwan Tebow.
I have no idea how Denver can make any type of long term plans around him though, being as his tactics to win matches are either so absurdly random as to elude normal human analysis, or they really are divine. I guess they can just give him a shit hot D, a wall for an O-line, and give McGahee someone else to make mad carries with. And hope Tebow pulls it out of his arse at some point in each match. Working so far. Sort of.
Also, I'm not sure James Harrison should be allowed to play with a helmet anymore. Dude is pure danger.
They should just play him in the fourth quarter.
From Football Outsiders:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/game-previews/2012/afc-wild-card-preview
DVOA explained:
From Football Outsiders:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/game-previews/2012/afc-wild-card-preview
DVOA explained:
DVOA EXPLAINED
The majority of the ratings featured on FootballOutsiders.com are based on DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. DVOA breaks down every single play of the NFL season to see how much success offensive players achieved in each specific situation compared to the league average in that situation, adjusted for the strength of the opponent.
The NFL determines the best players by adding up all their yards no matter what situations they came in or how many plays it took to get them. Now why would they do that? Football has one objective-to get to the end zone-and two ways to achieve that, by gaining yards and getting first downs. These two goals need to be balanced to determine a player's value or a team's performance.All the yards in the world aren't useful if they all come in eight-yard chunks on third-and-10.
The popularity of fantasy football only exaggerates the problem. Fans have gotten used to judging players based on how much they help fantasy teams win and lose, not how much they help real teams win and lose. But fantasy scoring skews things by counting the yard between the one and the goal line as 61 times more important than all the other yards on the field. Let's say, for example, that Anquan Boldin catches a pass on third-and-15 and goes 50 yards but gets tackled two yards from the goal line, and then Tim Hightower takes the ball on first-and-goal from the two-yard line and plunges in for the score. Or, let's say that the Cardinals are playing the Falcons. The Falcons take a touchback on the opening kickoff, and the Arizona defense stuffs the Falcons running game twice, and on third-and-10 Matt Ryan throws the ball into the arms of Adrian Wilson, who gets taken down by Michael Turner at the two-yard line. Then on the ensuing first-and-goal, Hightower scores a touchdown.
Has Hightower done something special? Not really. When an offense gets the ball on first-and-goal at the two-yard line, they are going to score a touchdown five out of six times. In the first situation, Hightower is getting the credit that primarily belongs to the passing game. In the second situation, Hightower is getting the credit that primarily belongs to the defense.
DVOA does a better job of distributing credit for scoring points and winning games. It uses a value based on both total yards and yards towards a first down, based on work done by Pete Palmer, Bob Carroll, and John Thorn in their seminal book, The Hidden Game of Football. On first down, a play is considered a success if it gains 45 percent of needed yards; on second down, a play needs to gain 60 percent of needed yards; on third or fourth down, only gaining a new first down is considered success.
We then expand upon that basic idea with a more complicated system of "success points." A successful play is worth one point, an unsuccessful play zero points. Extra points are awarded for big plays, gradually increasing to three points for 10 yards, four points for 20 yards, and five points for 40 yards or more. There are fractional points in between. (For example, eight yards on third-and-10 is worth 0.63 "success points."Losing four yards is -1 point, while losing 12 yards is -1.8 points. Interceptions average -6 points, with an adjustment for the length of the pass and the location of the interception (since an interception tipped at the line is more likely to produce a long return than an interception on a 40-yard pass). A fumble is worth anywhere from -1.70 to -3.98 points depending on how often a fumble in that situation is lost to the defense -- no matter who actually recovers the fumble. Red zone plays are worth 25 percent more for teams (and 10 percent more for players), and there is a bonus given for a touchdown.
(The system is a bit more complex than the one in Hidden Game thanks to a number of improvements since we launched the site in 2003.)
Every single play run in the NFL gets a "success value" based on this system, and then that number gets compared to the average success values of plays in similar situations for all players, adjusted for a number of variables. These include down and distance, field location, time remaining in game, and current scoring lead or deficit. Teams are always compared to one standard, as the team made its own choice whether to pass or rush. However, when it comes to individual players, rushing plays are compared to other rushing plays, passing plays to other passing plays, tight ends get compared to tight ends and wideouts to wideouts.
Imagine two running backs who each gain three yards. Player A gains three yards under a set of circumstances where the average NFL running back gains only two yards (for example, third-and-1), it can be argued that Player A has a certain amount of value above others at his position. Likewise, if Player B gains three yards on a play where, under similar circumstances, an average NFL back would be expected to gain five yards (for example, second-and-15), it can be argued that Player B has negative value relative to others at his position.
Once we have all our adjustments, we can find the difference between this player's success and the expected success of an average running back in the same situation (or between this defense and the average defense in the same situation, etc.). Add up every play by a certain team or player, divide by the total baseline for success in all those situations, and you get VOA, or Value Over Average.
Of course, the biggest variable in football is the fact that each team plays a different schedule. By adjusting each play based on the defense's average success in stopping that type of play over the course of a season, we get DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Rushing and passing plays are adjusted based on down and location on the field; receiving plays are also adjusted based on how the defense performs against passes to running backs, tight ends, and wide receivers. Defenses are adjusted based on the average success of the offenses they are facing. (Yes, this is still called DVOA, for the sake of simplicity.)
The biggest advantage of DVOA is the ability to break teams and players down to find strengths and weaknesses in a variety of situations. In the aggregate, DVOA may not be quite as accurate as some of the other, similar "power ratings" formulas based on comparing drives rather than individual plays, but, unlike those other ratings, DVOA can be separated not only by player but also by down, or by week, or by distance needed for first down. This can give us a better idea of not just which team is better but why, and what a team has to do in order to improve itself in the future. You will find DVOA used by Football Outsiders in a lot of different ways. Because it takes every single play into account, it can be used to measure a player or a team's performance in any situation. All Minnesota third downs can be compared to how an average team does on third down. JaMarcus Russell or David Garrard can each be compared to how an average quarterback performs in the red zone, or with a lead, or in the second half of the game.
Since it compares each play only to plays with similar circumstances, it gives a more accurate picture of how much better a team really is compared to the league as a whole. The list of top DVOA offenses on third down, for example, is more accurate than the conventional NFL conversion statistic because it takes into account that converting third-and-long is more difficult than converting third-and-short, and that a turnover is worse than an incomplete pass because it doesn't provide the opportunity to move the other team back with a punt on fourth down.
One of the hardest parts of understanding a new statistic is grasping the idea of what numbers represent good performance or bad performance. We try to make that easy with DVOA, because it gets compared to average. Therefore, 0% always represents league-average. A positive DVOA represents that the offense is more likely to score, and a negative DVOA represents that the defense is more likely to stop them. This is why the best offenses have positive DVOA ratings and the best defenses have negative DVOA ratings.
Ratings for teams generally follow that scale, with the best being around 30% and the worst being around -30% (opposite for defense). Players are generally rated between -45% and +45%. However, because the baseline is determined across multiple years of play, no season will average exactly 0%. This gives DVOA the added benefit of being able to show us how the scoring environment has fluctuated from year to year. In 2008, the total league DVOA on offense was 4.8%, the highest season on record and the third straight year where the league DVOA increased. It was below 0% in both 2003 and 2005.
Team DVOA totals combine offense and defense, and the team total is given by offense minus defense to take into account that better defenses are more negative. (Special teams performance is also added, as described below.)
[quote author=MC Golgotha link=topic=46797.msg1460659#msg1460659 date=1326131173]
Also, I'm not sure James Harrison should be allowed to play with a helmet anymore. Dude is pure danger.
[/quote]
Yup, disgusting player.
Also, I'm not sure James Harrison should be allowed to play with a helmet anymore. Dude is pure danger.
[/quote]
Yup, disgusting player.
I hope the broncos win the super bowl!
Denver airport yesterday:
[quote author=SaintGeorge67 link=topic=46797.msg1460688#msg1460688 date=1326133518]
I hope the broncos win the super bowl!
[/quote]
That's the thanks I get for bigging your team up! >
I hope the broncos win the super bowl!
[/quote]
That's the thanks I get for bigging your team up! >
Well I definitely hope you guys beat the packers anyway
Fuck the niners. Primarily fuck the wolverine twat in charge.
Fuck the packers. Cunts. Not as bad as the Vikings though. constantly having a pop. And what have they ever won?
I'm not sure what it is, because they're undeniably brilliant, but there was something utterly depressing about watching Alabama pancake LSU in the championship game the other night. I think it has something to do with Nick Saban being a detestable cunt. He has built a brilliant program in Tuscaloosa though.
[quote author=Whaddapie link=topic=46797.msg1461619#msg1461619 date=1326249772]
I think the Patriots will make the Superbowl...
And get destroyed by the Saints.
[/quote]
A man of great taste and discernment, as always. 8)
I think the Patriots will make the Superbowl...
And get destroyed by the Saints.
[/quote]
A man of great taste and discernment, as always. 8)
I did hear a rumor that LSU's bus was stuck in the hotel parking lot this morning and couldn't get out ... Somebody painted a 50-yard line in front of it.
Why do people hate Saban so much MC?
Why do people hate Saban so much MC?
Watched a brilliant ESPN doco last night about the Alabama Auburn rivalry.
Fierce doesn't begin to describe it.
Fierce doesn't begin to describe it.
