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Leics v Chelsea

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Stevesquash

Stevesquash

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So I think Chelsea will win this, as they'll be right pissed off and Leics will be slightly high still. Also Chelsea have the bigger squad to rotate.

But I hope I'm wrong, because if Chelsea lose, and we draw at Burnley, then it'll go down to the last match with us level on points, GD very tight, and we'll be at home v Palace, with fans, and they'll be away v Villa. Leics win and we need 2 wins minimum.

After yesterday, knowing a draw would still be OK in this circumstance would be a big bonus.

Obvs hope we win them both, and it's a done deal, but would be lovely to have a margin for error...
 
Draw is the preferable outcome for me, as that means we would have the opportunity to pounce on either dropping points in the final game (should we beat Burnley). I do see Chelsea coming out of the blocks in this one, but Leicester also have a fresh Maddison they can bring in to change things up.
 
A Leicester win is obviously the best outcome but even a Chelsea win is fine. Both mean if we win both then GD almost certainly won't be an issue (unless LC beat Spurs by some ridiculous score ... and Kane will want to score for the Golden Boot race).
With a LC win we'll be ahead of Chelsea even if they win their last match. A Draw is probably the worst outcome as it means we will likely need to win both our remaining games.

Leicester win then it's LC 69, C 64, L 63 (game in hand and could possibly even get away with a draw and a win with likely GD coming into it with a D&W)

Draw then it's L 67, C 65, L 63 (game in hand and likely needing to win both unless one of them lose their last match)

Chelsea win then it's C67, LC 66, L63 (game in hand and likely needing to win both but maybe get away with a draw and a win if LC draw with Spurs. In that later scenario if we finish level with LC we will be ahead on GD)
 
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The game is at Stamford Bridge, and Chelsea have looked a bit more vunerable at home.
A draw is a very likely outcome, but Chelseas bigger squad might tip it in their favour.
 
Hansern said:
The game is at Stamford Bridge, and Chelsea have looked a bit more vunerable at home.
A draw is a very likely outcome, but Chelseas bigger squad might tip it in their favour.
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Fans are back though. It will make a massive difference.
 
Kane wants to finish the season as top scorer and Spurs want to secure a EL spot.
They won't make it easy for Leicester
 
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Liverpool can get to 69 points. If Chelsea beat Leicester on Tuesday, CFC can get to 70 and LCFC could still get 69. It would then be down to GD if both LFC and LCFC win next Sunday. LFC would be relying on LCFC not getting a bigger win = not in own hands.

Having just read this. I am now in favour of a Leicester win so that we are taking 'losing on GD' off the table.
 
Brizzle said:
Liverpool can get to 69 points. If Chelsea beat Leicester on Tuesday, CFC can get to 70 and LCFC could still get 69. It would then be down to GD if both LFC and LCFC win next Sunday. LFC would be relying on LCFC not getting a bigger win = not in own hands.

Having just read this. I am now in favour of a Leicester win so that we are taking 'losing on GD' off the table.
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We need to beat Burnley first. Then look at goal difference.

At a minimum in that scenario they'd need to outscore us by 2 clear goals. If we beat Burnley by 1-0, and Leicester lose by 1-0 goal. Because they have the greater goals scored. But it's so tight each goal changes the equation.

In the very very very unlikely scenario of level on everything. We edge the head to head record by 1 away goal.
 
I think Leicester are losing to Spurs anyway but no bad result really for us here.

At a push id take a draw as it means two win we are guaranteed top 4.

Would love to nick 3rd after all the talk of us bottling it.
 
The Nomad said:
We need to beat Burnley first. Then look at goal difference.

At a minimum in that scenario they'd need to outscore us by 2 clear goals. If we beat Burnley by 1-0, and Leicester lose by 1-0 goal. Because they have the greater goals scored. But it's so tight each goal changes the equation.

In the very very very unlikely scenario of level on everything. We edge the head to head record by 1 away goal.
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Minimum of 3 clear goals for LC. We are both on +21 at the moment. LC lose 0-1 to CFC and we win both of ours by 1 then that's a 3 goals swing so they would need to beat Spurs by 3 goals.
 
Dreambeliever said:
I think Leicester are losing to Spurs anyway but no bad result really for us here.

At a push id take a draw as it means two win we are guaranteed top 4.

Would love to nick 3rd after all the talk of us bottling it.
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They are at home to Spurs, do you really think they'll lose that in a must win game? I hope you're right ! However didn't you read my post above on the benefits/breakdown of each scenario? A draw is maybe the worst result, a win for either substantially weakens the other.
 
Frogfish said:
Minimum of 3 clear goals for LC. We are both on +21 at the moment. LC lose 0-1 to CFC and we win both of ours by 1 then that's a 3 goals swing so they would need to beat Spurs by 3 goals.
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Just a different way of saying what I said, but thanks for making it more concise.

Goal swing.

I.e. 3-0 vs 1-0
5-2 vs 1-0

Etc.
 
Frogfish said:
Minimum of 3 clear goals for LC. We are both on +21 at the moment. LC lose 0-1 to CFC and we win both of ours by 1 then that's a 3 goals swing so they would need to beat Spurs by 3 goals.
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Easier way to think of the last game is they need to win by two more goals than we do.
 
Frogfish said:
They are at home to Spurs, do you really think they'll lose that in a must win game? I hope you're right ! However didn't you read my post above on the benefits/breakdown of each scenario? A draw is maybe the worst result, a win for either substantially weakens the other.
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A weakens both.
 
Frogfish said:
See the breakdown above. Clearly a draw is the worst result for us. We would need two wins (assuming they both win their last match) whereas we could get away with a D+W in some scenarios.
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Not if you believe Spurs won’t lose on the last day which I do.

Chelsea could easily batter Villa.
 
given footballs finances..

5 team in the champions league...

Liverpool 3rd
Leicester 4th
Spurs 5th
Chelsea 6th

How id like to see it pan out..

Liverpool will win their two remaining games and finish 3rd - 69pts - Liverpool have a few nervy moments.. being 2 nil down to palace inside the first 15 minutes at anfield.. whilst news filtered through Chelsea had taken the lead against Villa.. Liverpool eventually took control of their own destiny by coming back to lead 3-2 by half time. Phillips capped off a wonderful defensive performance in the 2nd half by scoring Liverpools 5th, with news of Villa equalising against Chelsea filtering thorough, the noise from the home fans was so deafening with joyus celebrations, you quickly forgot there was only 10,000 of them in the ground

Leicester beat Chelsea but lose to Spurs.. By Liverpool having a superior goal difference means Leicester finish 4th - 69pts

Chelsea after defeat to Leicester.. Draw to Aston Villa away.. so 65pts However they will win go on to win the Champions League against all odds to qualify for next years tournament,..

Spurs win their two remaining games and their superior goal difference over Chelsea sees them leap frog them to finish 5th.. 65pts.. However.. Kane despite his best efforts.. loses the battle of the Golden Boot to Salah, who's Hat-Trick on the final day against Palace in Liverpools 5-3 win Nailed the award in his favour..
 
If the result didn't impact on us at all, I would prefer to see Leicester win than Chelsea.

The result DOES impact on us, and it seems that it is still better for Leicester to win out of the three scenarios.

So I'll be therefore hoping for a Leicester win.
 
I'm not getting into this,. The last time I was busily calculating how many we needed to win by and what it would mean for our GD in the final match was when we beat West Ham 5-1 on 23rd May 1989
 
tombrown said:
I'm not getting into this,. The last time I was busily calculating how many we needed to win by and what it would mean for our GD in the final match was when we beat West Ham 5-1 on 23rd May 1989
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Or when we went 3-0 against Palace in ‘14 and started thinking we were going to eat into City’s goal difference.

I bet Dreamie posted that we have this in the bag.
 
StevieM said:
Or when we went 3-0 against Palace in ‘14 and started thinking we were going to eat into City’s goal difference.

I bet Dreamie posted that we have this in the bag.
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I think he did post something like we are going to better them.
 
It’s probably bad karma to talk like this but my ideal scenario also involves Chelsea outside of the top 4 and in need of a win against City in the champions league final
 
Markeh said:
It’s probably bad karma to talk like this but my ideal scenario also involves Chelsea outside of the top 4 and in need of a win against City in the champions league final
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Nah, as if any player needs extra motivation on top of winning the biggest trophy in club football.
 
Stevesquash said:
So I think Chelsea will win this, as they'll be right pissed off and Leics will be slightly high still. Also Chelsea have the bigger squad to rotate.

But I hope I'm wrong, because if Chelsea lose, and we draw at Burnley, then it'll go down to the last match with us level on points, GD very tight, and we'll be at home v Palace, with fans, and they'll be away v Villa. Leics win and we need 2 wins minimum.

After yesterday, knowing a draw would still be OK in this circumstance would be a big bonus.

Obvs hope we win them both, and it's a done deal, but would be lovely to have a margin for error...
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Chelsea have to go for this, a draw is no good to them (unless we drop points) and Leicester are a side that like to sit in defence and pounce on the break. This game is made for a Vardy hattrick.
 
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A draw or a Lei win is the preferred results as it will totally be in our hands then.

But if Chelsea were to win, then I want them to win by at least 2 clear goals (if not more).

And we need to win by at least 2 goals vs Burnley.

That 4 goal swing will mean they'd have to score 4 more goals than us final day, should it get there. Could happen, but unlikely.

Also, another result we should be looking out for is West Ham winning at West Brom (hopefully demoralised now). At worst, we need West Ham to get a draw. This would mean that Spurs need 1pts away at Leicester to secure European football (should they beat Villa themselves).
 
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