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The clear out....

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737Max

737Max

Stupid f*****g bolt
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I agree with Klopp and in general it never really works out when you try to sign 5-6 players however with the number of players leaving or supposedly leaving it leaves us in a quandary. So let's look at the bigger picture of who's going and what positions we should actively target players for.

Sadio looks like he's going

Big Divock on a free

Milner out of contract also, Big Jurgen wants him to stay but will the in give the 36 year old a one year deal? I think he's staying but who knows? You'd think if he was going they'd have done the whole presentation to him like big Div last game of the season?

Mo wants to stay but apparently won't sign a new deal, stick or twist?

Bobby also in his last year, no longer a starter, what do we do?

Ox - been fit the latter half of the season but can't be trusted by Jurgen or not showing it on the training pitch

Naby lad - has he got 1 year or two years left?

Taki - the cup king but appears he wants/needs to be playing regularly

Adrian - 1 year left on his deal but apparently feels he can still offer first team football rather than 3rd backup

That's 8 players with question marks with big Div deffo gone. Now I'm not saying we have to replace all of these 8 and there's no way we will but I think what this season has show in the quest of the quad is that you do need a big squad and that we didn't really manage it properly or rotate it enough towards the latter part of the season.

Discus
 
Hass said:
I agree with Klopp and in general it never really works out when you try to sign 5-6 players however with the number of players leaving or supposedly leaving it leaves us in a quandary. So let's look at the bigger picture of who's going and what positions we should actively target players for.

Sadio looks like he's going

Big Divock on a free

Milner out of contract also, Big Jurgen wants him to stay but will the in give the 36 year old a one year deal? I think he's staying but who knows? You'd think if he was going they'd have done the whole presentation to him like big Div last game of the season?

Mo wants to stay but apparently won't sign a new deal, stick or twist?

Bobby also in his last year, no longer a starter, what do we do?

Ox - been fit the latter half of the season but can't be trusted by Jurgen or not showing it on the training pitch

Naby lad - has he got 1 year or two years left?

Taki - the cup king but appears he wants/needs to be playing regularly

Adrian - 1 year left on his deal but apparently feels he can still offer first team football rather than 3rd backup

That's 8 players with question marks with big Div deffo gone. Now I'm not saying we have to replace all of these 8 and there's no way we will but I think what this season has show in the quest of the quad is that you do need a big squad and that we didn't really manage it properly or rotate it enough towards the latter part of the season.

Discus
Click to expand...

Milner staying is almost certainly not a playing discuss, he has a chance to begin coaching mentored by the best

Adrian, Ox and Divock have had pretty much zero impact this season, Minamino pretty much there too.

Navy is the stand-out for me, great when the game suits him, a passenger when it doesn’t.

The focus is on Mane and Mo. I hope we keep one of the two “short” term
 
There’s also questions about Gomez and Nico too.

Adrian isn’t an issue - we can replace a 3rd choice keeper easily enough.

For me it’s about who wants to leave - so far Div & Mane - so we’ll need to bring in at least one other forward.

Get Salah’s contract sorted, Milner plays one more year before retiring, extend Bobby’s contract (he has an important squad role to play), Ox can leave on a free end of next season and Minamino stays unless.

One midfielder in this year.

Sell Naby and get a second midfielder in.
 
Dee said:
Milner staying is almost certainly not a playing discuss, he has a chance to begin coaching mentored by the best

Adrian, Ox and Divock have had pretty much zero impact this season, Minamino pretty much there too.

Navy is the stand-out for me, great when the game suits him, a passenger when it doesn’t.

The focus is on Mane and Mo. I hope we keep one of the two “short” term
Click to expand...

Minamino is probably the most influential figure in terms of the two trophies we actually won this year. I wouldn't bin him off that quick.

Divock is gone, Adrian too. Sadio looks like he's out but no deal agreed yet.

I expect Milner to sign for 12 months at which point Hendo takes his role.

We will probably lose 1 of Ox and Keita but not both. Again depending on finding someone who will take them on. So that's 3 spots in the squad to be filled, 4 if Sadio goes too. And so far only Carvalho announced, busy summer ahead
 
Origi, Mane, and Ox to leave I think.

Milner will stay on. Minamino will leave if we get a good offer.

Neco and Nat should leave permanently too.

Keita will get a new deal - some of the criticism he's got this year has been strange. This has statistically been his best year - he was fitter than ever before - played 40 games with several standout performances (United at Old Trafford, Benfica, City in the FA Cup). It's quite telling that Klopp regularly trusted Keita to play for the entire business end of the season, which is something that didn't happen earlier. Keita's faults are well known - he's kinda timid, weak in duels and can't really dominate, but his positive qualities are under-appreciated. He's an outstanding forward presser (like the best in the team maybe), he's superb technically and he rarely makes a bad decision with the ball. His passing is a very nice blend of both keeping possession but also constantly probing for advantages. If he can continue to play 40 games a season, I wouldn't be getting rid that easily. It takes a lot of time to learn how to play in a Klopp midfield, so we shouldn't simply assume that a new guy is simply going to come in and hit the ground running immediately. There was a long adjustment period for both Fabinho and Gini.

Re incomings, Carvalho and that Scottish kid Ramsay should come in. I would hope for Tchouameni, but it doesn't seem likely. I don't who the alternative is - Gravenberch seems set for Bayern, and Bellingham looks like he won't move this year.

Mane leaving also changes things in midfield somewhat. Our attack without Mane and Firmino practically requires a full reconstruction in terms of style and approach. Mane and Firmino brought a ton of physicality to our attack in different ways. Prime Firmino pressed like a monster and pulled defenders out of position, while Mane wasn't just a ball-carrier but also provided hold up play with his tremendous strength.

Jota and Diaz can't bring that physicality, and that has never been Salah's role in the attack.

This might just be the time to bring in a big no. 9, and construct the attack around him. Make no mistake, you need physicality and hold-up play in every attack. We just went about it differently earlier.
 
Damn I even forgot to mention the likes of Neco, Rhys Williams and Nat Phillips. This could be quite the clear out this summer
 
There are some that will be going (or have gone) that had hardly any impact during this quad season and that in that regard won't be missed and don't need to have a direct replacement : Phillips, Ox, Adrian, Karius, Davies, Ojo, Woodburn and of course Mane has gone. What happens with Gomez/Neco/Bradley for that RB backup slot remains to be seen but that aside I don't see any other established players departing.

In terms of what is required :

Defence :
A backup for TAA. Clearly he will remain as our first choice RB so it's pointless suggesting someone to 'challenge' him. I would retain Neco if possible, that would give us one more year to see Neco's progress and he has proven he is a capable stand-in. Unless of course we deem Bradley to have reached Neco's level.
There is the question of Gomez staying or v.d.Berg moving up to that 4th CB slot. I like that Gomez is an excellent CB as well as a very capable RB. If it comes down to losing him or Neco/Bradley I'd let both Neco and Bradley go. Otherwise if Gomez goes then we retain Neco and v.d.Berg comes into that #4 CB slot.

Pitaluga replaces Adrian as #3 GK.

Midfield :
Hendo is the de facto stand in for Fabs so no change there no matter how some of our posters go on about bringing in Bissouma etc. Maybe bring in a youth player for grooming as backup if Morton hasn't progressed. Milner will sign a one year renewal and I'm OK with that as squad talisman and him coming on for 20 mins when we need shoring up.
I expect Carvalho to see a lot of action this season, though not as a starter in our de facto triumvirate. Make or break season for Jones but I don't expect him to be here for 2023/24. We are not letting Keita go as he is still a high quality midfielder, and even if not what we expected him to be he is still an immense presser and tackler high up the pitch and perfect in that sense for Klopp's tactics. A decision on his contract renewal to be made by Summer 23/24. I do expect to see one major signing in this area however.

Attack :
I do NOT expect Salah, Minamino or Firmino to leave. However clearly our attack is weakened with the departure of Mane. Therefore I hope that the rumours of us being in for Nunez are true and that we manage to secure his signature. With City strengthening in that area we absolutely need to do the same and Nunez will cover Mane's 20+ goals per season. If it's not Nunez then I'm still sure there will be another replacement for Mane (I don't think Diaz is meant to be that replacement since we are starting to show weakness in the centre with Mane departing and Firmino aging) otherwise it really starts to look light for 4 competitions as intense as this season was.

This may see us start next season with :

GKs : Alisson, Kelleher, Pitaluga

LB : Robbo + Tsimikas

CBs : VvD, Konate, Matip, Gomez or v.d. Berg + Williams

RB : TAA + Neco or Bradley or Gomez

Midfield : Fabs, Hendo, Thiago, Keita, Carvalho, Milner, Jones, Gordon, Elliot +1 new starting player (hoping for Tchouameni, of course).

Attack : Salah, Diaz, Jota, Minamino, Firmino +1 new starting player (hoping it's Nunez).
 
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Keita's flaws aren't related to his skills or ability. Notwithstanding the injury issues he's had, there are too many games - mostly the important ones - where he's failed to have any significant impact. A player of his skillset and ability should be able to dominate games and he doesn't against decent teams. The only progression we've seen in him in the length of time he's been here is possibly less of a propensity to get injured, and that's only happened this season.

Did anybody feel at all he'd have any impact when he came off the bench in the final? If he's not able to do that then he's not good enough for us.

I hope we sell him. I wouldn't be surprised if he leaves with Chamberlain. I think Milner will stay for one more year at least. Mane will go, Taki will probably go, and we'll need to sign another midfielder - ideally someone who can physically dominate opponents - and probably two strikers, given Origi and Mane are leaving.
 
Frogfish said:
There are some that will be going (or have gone) that had hardly any impact during this quad season and that in that regard won't be missed and don't need to have a direct replacement : Phillips, Ox, Adrian, Karius, Davies, Ojo, Woodburn and of course Mane has gone. What happens with Gomez/Neco/Bradley for that RB backup slot remains to be seen but that aside I don't see any other established players departing.

In terms of what is required :

Defence :
A backup for TAA. Clearly he will remain as our first choice RB so it's pointless suggesting someone to 'challenge' him. I would retain Neco if possible, that would give us one more year to see Neco's progress and he has proven he is a capable stand-in. Unless of course we deem Bradley to have reached Neco's level.
There is the question of Gomez staying or v.d.Berg moving up to that 4th CB slot. I like that Gomez is an excellent CB as well as a very capable RB. If it comes down to losing him or Neco/Bradley I'd let both Neco and Bradley go. Otherwise if Gomez goes then we retain Neco and v.d.Berg comes into that #4 CB slot.

Pitaluga replaces Adrian as #3 GK.

Midfield :
Hendo is the de facto stand in for Fabs so no change there no matter how some of our posters go on about bringing in Bissouma etc. Maybe bring in a youth player for grooming as backup if Morton hasn't progressed. Milner will sign a one year renewal and I'm OK with that as squad talisman and him coming on for 20 mins when we need shoring up.
I expect Carvalho to see a lot of action this season, though not as a starter in our de facto triumvirate. Make or break season for Jones but I don't expect him to be here for 2023/24. We are not letting Keita go as he is still a high quality midfielder, and even if not what we expected him to be he is still an immense presser and tackler high up the pitch and perfect in that sense for Klopp's tactics. A decision on his contract renewal to be made by Summer 23/24. I do expect to see one major signing in this area however.

Attack :
I do NOT expect Salah, Minamino or Firmino to leave. However clearly our attack is weakened with the departure of Mane. Therefore I hope that the rumours of us being in for Nunez are true and that we manage to secure his signature. With City strengthening in that area we absolutely need to do the same and Nunez will cover Mane's 20+ goals per season. If it's not Nunez then I'm still sure there will be another replacement for Mane (I don't think Diaz is meant to be that replacement since we are starting to show weakness in the centre with Mane departing and Firmino aging) otherwise it really starts to look light for 4 competitions as intense as this season was.

This may see us start next season with :

GKs : Alisson, Kelleher, Pitaluga

LB : Robbo + Tsimikas

CBs : VvD, Konate, Matip, Gomez or v.d. Berg + Williams

RB : TAA + Neco or Bradley or Gomez

Midfield : Fabs, Hendo, Thiago, Keita, Carvalho, Milner, Jones, Gordon, Elliot +1 new starting player (hoping for Tchouameni, of course).

Attack : Salah, Diaz, Jota, Minamino, Firmino +1 new starting player (hoping it's Nunez).
Click to expand...

I largely agree with this.

Keepers - Totally agree with

RB
Ramsey coming in as RB means Bradley and Neco will not be here next season.

CB
If VdB impresses in pre-season, I could see Gomez being allowed to leave late in the transfer window.

LB
No change

Midfield
In Tchouameni would be the dream, the 6/8 hybrid we all wanted Keita to be. Its looking more and more unlikely.

I don't think Henderson can cover for Fabs in the big games, so for me this is a priority add.

Attack
Like you, Nunez would be the ideal add here. Would probably close to our record buy given how many teams are in for him. Can play LW, Striker or in the false 9 role. If you could hand craft a player for what we are losing in Mane and Divock, it'd be him.

Edit - I expect Taki to cement his place as a cult hero in Divocks absence next season

I wouldn't be too disappointed if we replace Keita with AN Other too. But it'd mean two midfielders rather than one through the door on top of what we've already added.


Next summer I expect the same priority adds in Midfield and a right sided Striker.
 
Adrian, Gomez, Nico, Bradley, Ox, Jones, Divock, Mane,.... OUT
RB, midfielder and Right sided striker
 
I’d sell Mo and reinvest. However professional he is, he won’t be up for the challenge like a truly committed player would be and it’s no good for the team as a unit.
I’m still a fan of Sadio and would love him to stay, but if he wants to go, that’s fair enough. He’s not quite the player he was and maybe we aren’t offering him what he wants.
Taki could easily do a job for us and costs peanuts.
Bobby will probably go.
I’d sell Mo and get two new strikers in. Having said that, maybe that’s too much of a risk, so maybe we do keep Mo and have him help us through this transition to a new strike force. We desperately need at least one top centre mid. Defence seems ok for now barring injuries of course, and I think it’s lower on our list of priorities.
 
Pretty depressing to think about losing Mane, I think hes upped his game a level in the centre, and realistically we won't be able to improve on him via the transfer market in the immediate term.
 
Mystic said:
Pretty depressing to think about losing Mane, I think hes upped his game a level in the centre, and realistically we won't be able to improve on him via the transfer market in the immediate term.
Click to expand...
Don't think Nunez could replace him?
 
Mystic said:
Yes, and eventually perform at a better level, but that will take time and it'll be a noticeable drop in the short term, imo.
Click to expand...
You only have to look at Ferguson at United, and the number of times he rebuilt his attack - Cantona, Yorke, Cole, van Nistelrooy, Rooney, Ronaldo, Tevez, Berbatov, van Persie.

Mane-Firmino-Salah are legends, but I'm excited about the new attack Klopp will build.
 
Not sure what Bradley has done to warrant all the selling him comments. He's a 18 year old right back (almost 19) who costs us almost nothing. Loan him out as he needs game time.

Neco had a good season, maybe Fulham would take him back for another loan (although I think there were rumours about him falling out with the manager as he was dropped for last 4 games)

Harvey will get more game time, so hopefully he and / or Carvalho can give us a more creative option, but I'd ideally like someone to replace Keita.

Mane needs replaced. I'm not convinced a front three of Mo, Diaz and Jota/Bobby offers enough goal threat, although it might work if we got a goalscoring midfielder in to take up some of the slack. Bobby can be the new Divock

I assume Carvalho will take Ox's place. I don't really care for Minamino but there is no harm in keeping him if he's popular with the squad and happy to only play in cup games.

Karius will leave, I hope Adrian stays as I'd prefer to have Adrian kicking his heels on the bench and Kelleher out on loan somewhere getting experience (although replacing him with another keeper that doesn't mind being on the bench would also work).

Davis is probably on high wages so we might be stuck with him

Ojo free transfer.
 
Good point above ^ Bobby becomes our new Divock off the bench. Different but impactful.

Salah stays for a year so we replace him this year. Diaz is Mane’s replacement, right.

Of course they have a plan. I mean these lads are getting older and if Juergen has one quality as manager it’s that the collective is always stronger than the individual. He always moves on from star players
 
I've tried to do some rough calculations of what kind of budget we might have for this summer. I've said previously that I didn't expect us to do major business this year because we have the Anfield Road stand to pay for, so I expected a fairly normal summer, with upsides based on football success / sales.
I've tried to look at how this affects our finances year on year.
TLDR FOR @tombrown
I THINK WE WILL HAVE A BASE BUDGET FOR (HEADLINE = FULL VALUE) TRANSFER FEES OF ABOUT £90m
See below for the nerdy stuff as to how I've got there. This includes Carvalho in and Mane out, so any further ins or outs will reduce / increase the spending pot.
To be clear, when I was working in the game, we worked on some broad parameters to estimate what a transfer budget would convert into in any given year (for long-range forecasts) and the answer in any given year was never in line with what I've predicted below because some of the core assumptions (principally the split in the spend between wages and transfer fees) would never be equal to the long-term average - free transfers in/out could massively distort the position, for example. So take all of this with a pinch of salt. The key thing is, I think we will now have more to spend than I had assumed previously.
So, starting with player departures:
KNOWN
We know that we will be saying goodbye to Karius, Adrian, Divock and probably Mane (sniff). That will save us some wages relative to this year.
We will be bringing in money for Mane and we should also get a first instalment for Grujic who was on loan last year with a permanent deal going through this summer.
We spent very little money in Summer 2020, so there won't be any significant instalments we paid last year that won't be due this year.
We added Diaz in January, so we need to factor in an extra 6 months of his wages into next year's budget, plus we are adding Carvalho. We've then got players returning from loans (principally Neco Williams, Sepp van den Berg and Nat Philips) whose wages would need to be added to next year's (base) budget.
Without discussing individual figures where we'll all have different expectations on wages and transfer fees, I reckon that probably adds somewhere around £22m net extra cash in during next year.
COMMITTED TRANSFER SPEND FROM PRIOR YEARS
We should then look at what transfer fees we have due / payable from prior years.
For this, I'm going straight to the club's accounts and I'm assuming that all debtors / creditors due after more than one year are transfer spend that will be payable in 2022-23. This is a net £10m out. However, that doesn't include Diaz and Konate so we need to add an extra £30m (assuming there'll be some contingencies / agent fees on top of the reported transfer fees).
STARTING POINT
So that means that, before we do any further business, we need to find a net £8m out of our 2022-23 budget.
We'll have made a decent of money this year due to success on the field, but we'll have spent some of that on the Annie Road. I think the best proxy for cash generated for transfer spending would be operating cash flow. In recent years, this has gone up and down quite wildly, but across the last 4 years it's an average of £116m per annum. 2021-22 should be higher because of our success, so we could perhaps assume an additional £20m excess cash in the year to bring forward and add to the kitty, but in practice that will have paid for the costs on Diaz this year, so probably nothing to add.
KITTY
So this suggests our kitty would be something like:
2022-23 assumed cash available £116m (based on 4-year average)
Less: funding prior transfers (£8m)
Less: Annie Road (£40m)
Add: surplus from 2021-22 £0m
Total budget £68m.
POTENTIAL SPENDING
As a broad rule of thumb, in the year of a transfer, about half of the money will go on transfer instalments and half on extra wages. So that would imply a budget for fees of £68m / 2 x 3 (instalments) = £102m (gross spend). That will need to cover agent's fees so would be more like £90m headline fees.
 
Are we still paying for Jota, if I remember correctly, it was a strange type of deal where we delayed the payments, but I could be wrong on that.
 
The Nomad said:
I largely agree with this.

Keepers - Totally agree with

RB
Ramsey coming in as RB means Bradley and Neco will not be here next season.

CB
If VdB impresses in pre-season, I could see Gomez being allowed to leave late in the transfer window.

LB
No change

Midfield
In Tchouameni would be the dream, the 6/8 hybrid we all wanted Keita to be. Its looking more and more unlikely.

I don't think Henderson can cover for Fabs in the big games, so for me this is a priority add.

Attack
Like you, Nunez would be the ideal add here. Would probably close to our record buy given how many teams are in for him. Can play LW, Striker or in the false 9 role. If you could hand craft a player for what we are losing in Mane and Divock, it'd be him.

Edit - I expect Taki to cement his place as a cult hero in Divocks absence next season

I wouldn't be too disappointed if we replace Keita with AN Other too. But it'd mean two midfielders rather than one through the door on top of what we've already added.


Next summer I expect the same priority adds in Midfield and a right sided Striker.
Click to expand...
Oh yeah - I had totally forgotten about Ramsey. That deffo changes the options at LB, a lot.
 
walesnj said:
Are we still paying for Jota, if I remember correctly, it was a strange type of deal where we delayed the payments, but I could be wrong on that.
Click to expand...
I think we still have an instalment to pay on Jota, but that would be in my the numbers I took from the accounts so it should be covered either way.
 
On Darwin, you can do whatever maths you want but I dont see FSG spending £100m on anyone without a massive wedge of Coutinho money. Virgil and Ali were blips.

I doubt we'll spend anywhere near £100m in total, even if we get decent money for Mane and replace him. We average one £30-40m addition per window. Imo we bought Diaz in early to replace Origi, keeping five strikers for three slots. At best that leaves us adding another £30-40m player to MF during the summer, taking Ox's and/or Curtis's slot(s), which I think we desperately need.

I dont see Keita going as Klopp has the patience of a saint and has stuck with him. He could be a bit more ruthless tbh.

Carvalho and Ramsey are more like the FSG approach. With Elliott and maybe Gordon they could have an impact but its hard to do that and keep pace with the oily bastards buying a £100m star every window.
 
Does anyone know how much we will get from our Champions League run...I read somewhere that it would've been worth about 93 million GBP had we won it.
 
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