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Title Race

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How many points will win it? I'm going to go 90.

Yeah we can do that. Especially with returning injured. Though other factors include FAC and EL congestion. Whilst we should win those in the 'Wins' column the 'Undecided' are more difficult and the issues of injured, form, luck and confidence more impactful.

Wins : Forest, Everton, Brighton, Sheff Utd, Palace, Fulham, West Ham, Wolves
Undecided : City (H), United (A), Spurs (H), Villa (A)

Our last three games Spurs, Villa and Wolves could be made easier if we are out of the FAC+EL or more difficult if we are through to the finals. However until then our more difficult games are nicely spaced out and 'book-ended' by 'on paper' easier games, even when there are 3 in a week.

So much riding on the City game though. Win and it will be difficult for City to catch us, they'll drop points elsewhere too. If they win that could be it though - unless a good CL run sees them with 3 very difficult games (1/4s or Semis) within 7 days.

------

March, 2024

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TH]DATE[/TH]
[TH]MATCH[/TH]
[TH]TIME[/TH]
[TH]COMPETITION[/TH]
[TH]TV[/TH]
[TH][/TH]

[TH][/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sat, Mar 2[/TD]
[TD]Nottingham Forest[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Liverpool[/TD]
[TD]11:00 PM[/TD]
[TD]English Premier League[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sun, Mar 10[/TD]
[TD]Liverpool[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Manchester City[/TD]
[TD]11:45 PM[/TD]
[TD]English Premier League[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sun, Mar 17[/TD]
[TD]Everton[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Liverpool[/TD]
[TD]10:00 PM[/TD]
[TD]English Premier League[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sun, Mar 31[/TD]
[TD]Liverpool[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Brighton & Hove Albion[/TD]
[TD]9:00 PM[/TD]
[TD]English Premier League[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

April, 2024

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TH]DATE[/TH]
[TH]MATCH[/TH]
[TH]TIME[/TH]
[TH]COMPETITION[/TH]
[TH]TV[/TH]
[TH][/TH]

[TH][/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Thu, Apr 4[/TD]
[TD]Liverpool[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Sheffield United[/TD]
[TD]3:00 AM[/TD]
[TD]English Premier League[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sat, Apr 6[/TD]
[TD]Manchester United[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Liverpool[/TD]
[TD]10:00 PM[/TD]
[TD]English Premier League[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sat, Apr 13[/TD]
[TD]Liverpool[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Crystal Palace[/TD]
[TD]10:00 PM[/TD]
[TD]English Premier League[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sat, Apr 20[/TD]
[TD]Fulham[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Liverpool[/TD]
[TD]10:00 PM[/TD]
[TD]English Premier League[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sat, Apr 27[/TD]
[TD]West Ham United[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Liverpool[/TD]
[TD]10:00 PM[/TD]
[TD]English Premier League[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

May, 2024

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TH]DATE[/TH]
[TH]MATCH[/TH]
[TH]TIME[/TH]
[TH]COMPETITION[/TH]
[TH]TV[/TH]
[TH][/TH]

[TH][/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sat, May 4[/TD]
[TD]Liverpool[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Tottenham Hotspur[/TD]
[TD]10:00 PM[/TD]
[TD]English Premier League[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sat, May 11[/TD]
[TD]Aston Villa[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Liverpool[/TD]
[TD]10:00 PM[/TD]
[TD]English Premier League[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sun, May 19[/TD]
[TD]Liverpool[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Wolverhampton Wanderers[/TD]
[TD]11:00 PM[/TD]
[TD]English Premier League[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
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OH! I've just realised we are playing Wolves in the last game of the season.

One of my best early memories was listening to the radio commentary of our last game of the '76 season. I stubbed my toe jumping around the room when Keegan equalised late on! We went on to win (I think we only needed a draw) 1-3 and won the league.

IT'S A SIGN!
 
OH! I've just realised we are playing Wolves in the last game of the season.

One of my best early memories was listening to the radio commentary of our last game of the '76 season. I stubbed my toe jumping around the room when Keegan equalised late on! We went on to win (I think we only needed a draw) 1-3 and won the league.

IT'S A SIGN!
Yeah, but we also played Wolves a few years ago didn't we in the last game of one of the close run things finishing on 98 points?
 
First time I've seen City not odds on all season.

Screenshot-2024-02-23-at-12-05-57.png
 
Watching the Redman TV analysis and, although one of them seems to be a 'little' lacking in the 'logical thought' dept, I do like their spreadsheet.

The end of the season is far easier for City than for us and they should win the last 4, and bearing our injury situation in mind it's probably better we leave a few of our more troublesome matches to the end when hopefully we'll be back at / close to full strength. Arsenal have 7/8 tough matches in the last 10 - they won't win the title and will finish 3rd.

However take a look at City's run over the next 6 games ... if we are going to win the league, and I think we will, City must drop points over these games. Maybe in 3 of them. Obviously Anfield must be one of them.

CL
Quarter-finals: 9/10 and 16/17 April 2024 (for City they have Spurs away on the 20th).
Semi-finals: 30 April/1 May and 7/8 May 2024 (City have Wolves at home in between the Semi games - if they make it that far).
Final: 1 June 2024

Screenshot-2024-02-23-at-12-51-43.png


Screenshot-2024-02-23-at-12-50-18.png
 
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All on paper but we have United and Everton away, with both having extra motivation to spoil it for us, as always. Will they put in the same effort facing City and Arse? Probably not.

We rely solely on ourselves to win it.
 

Arsenal have a ton of tough matches to the end of the season - and the CL. I just can't see them staying the course and will finish 4-5 points adrift.
City also have a tougher run than us (despite what the 'ratings' say) ... and the CL.

Our toughest games are naturally at home to City (I think this is a 'must win' not a 'must not lose' now) away at Villa, United and Everton and home to Spurs. But City aside those are all games we should win - especially with so many players returning - though of course there'll likely be a slip up somewhere (hence the need to win at home to City).

Still confident in a treble (PL, EL, LC).
 
RedCafe on the title race :

Written in the stars.

I still think City but yeah Liverpool have this crazy momentum on their side at the moment. They find a way in every game no matter the scenario. Must be nice.

Not only will they win it, but Klippy will do a u-turn on his decision and sign a long term contact. Our misery shall never end.

No one wants another City title win (they're probably going down this summer as well?) and it's the Klopp farewell tour. All stops will be pulled out to make sure Liverpool do it.

City next week is pretty much their only game left that they won't be heavy odds on favourites for. I'd be very surprised if they mess it up from here.

12 games to go. Can't see them losing any of them.

Momentum is everything, they won’t lose again in the league this season. I think they’ll embarrass City.

In 2019 I felt positively desperate for City to win the league. I’d still probably take that this season over Liverpool, but I wouldn’t mind it anywhere near as much to stop that joke oil machine winning 4 in a row. We hate Liverpool because they are the only other massive massive club in the country. They are at least a proper club.

I think they win all their remaining games - they are simply the best team in the league at getting results and their league position is a fair reflection of this.
 
Been said many times before I know, but Liverpool side is very reminiscent to that of Utd in the 4-5 years especially before the sheikhs took over at Shitty where they would simply find a way to scrape a win despite playing poor/average & usually late on.
 
City's home form is 4th best in the PL whilst their away form is slightly better than ours

Premier League home and away tables​


Home table​

GP
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
1
Liverpool
13​
11​
2​
0​
37​
11​
+26​
35
2
Arsenal
13​
10​
2​
1​
34​
12​
+22​
32
3
Aston Villa
13​
10​
1​
2​
35​
15​
+20​
31
4
Manchester City
13​
9​
4​
0​
31​
11​
+20​
31
5
Tottenham
14​
10​
0​
4​
29​
19​
+10​
30
6
Newcastle Utd
14​
9​
2​
3​
34​
16​
+18​
29
7
Fulham
14​
8​
1​
5​
26​
15​
+11​
25
8
Brighton
13​
6​
6​
1​
27​
16​
+11​
24
9
West Ham Utd
13​
6​
4​
3​
22​
19​
+3​
22
10
Manchester Utd
13​
7​
1​
5​
19​
20​
-1​
22
11
Wolverhampton
13​
6​
3​
4​
20​
20​
0​
21
12
Chelsea
12​
5​
3​
4​
20​
18​
+2​
18
13
Brentford
14​
4​
4​
6​
24​
29​
-5​
16
14
Crystal Palace
13​
4​
3​
6​
18​
19​
-1​
15
15
Nottm Forest
14​
4​
3​
7​
19​
21​
-2​
15
16
Everton
14​
3​
4​
7​
15​
18​
-3​
13
17
Bournemouth
12​
3​
4​
5​
12​
18​
-6​
13
18
Luton Town
14​
3​
2​
9​
21​
25​
-4​
11
19
Sheffield Utd
13​
2​
2​
9​
12​
36​
-24​
8
20
Burnley
13​
1​
2​
10​
13​
32​
-19​
5

Away table​

GP
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
1
Manchester City
13​
9​
1​
3​
28​
15​
+13​
28
2
Liverpool
14​
8​
4​
2​
27​
14​
+13​
28
3
Arsenal
13​
8​
2​
3​
28​
11​
+17​
26
4
Aston Villa
14​
7​
3​
4​
24​
22​
+2​
24
5
Manchester Utd
13​
7​
1​
5​
17​
16​
+1​
22
6
Tottenham
12​
5​
5​
2​
26​
20​
+6​
20
7
West Ham Utd
14​
6​
2​
6​
21​
28​
-7​
20
8
Chelsea
14​
5​
3​
6​
24​
25​
-1​
18
9
Everton
13​
5​
3​
5​
14​
19​
-5​
18
10
Wolverhampton
14​
5​
2​
7​
20​
23​
-3​
17
11
Brighton
14​
4​
3​
7​
22​
28​
-6​
15
12
Bournemouth
13​
4​
3​
6​
21​
29​
-8​
15
13
Crystal Palace
14​
3​
4​
7​
14​
28​
-14​
13
14
Newcastle Utd
13​
3​
2​
8​
23​
29​
-6​
11
15
Brentford
13​
3​
1​
9​
15​
21​
-6​
10
16
Fulham
13​
2​
4​
7​
13​
27​
-14​
10
17
Luton Town
12​
2​
3​
7​
16​
29​
-13​
9
18
Nottm Forest
13​
2​
3​
8​
15​
28​
-13​
9
19
Burnley
13​
2​
2​
9​
12​
26​
-14​
8
20
Sheffield Utd
13​
1​
2​
10​
10​
30​
-20​
5
 
I can’t decide whether Dreamie is running the most impressive anti-jinx campaign ever seen and will demand we suck his toes as compensation, or getting desperate for us to lose so as he can fill his “I told you so” cup to the brim, since Ange made it run a bit dry of late.
 
If you think we got a chance to win each individual game of 90%, then we got a 28% chance of winning all 12.
 
We are on an insane run. It has to end at some stage.

It hasn't really been insane though I don't think.

Since we lost at Arsenal it's been 6 wins in all competitions, but the four league games were against teams close to the bottom.

Then there was also a Championship side in the FA Cup.

What we have done is win games that we should be always winning. Okay, so injuries have meant we have had to use squad players, but aside from MAYBE the league cup final, we were still favourites to win all of those games.

What has happened is that they have all come at once and in a rare bit of luck they have come at a time when we have had injuries and could afford to play the squad players and get away with it.

What I will agree with though is that winning all of our remaining games would be a challenge, but it will be a challenge for City and Arsenal too.
 
I can’t decide whether Dreamie is running the most impressive anti-jinx campaign ever seen and will demand we suck his toes as compensation, or getting desperate for us to lose so as he can fill his “I told you so” cup to the brim, since Ange made it run a bit dry of late.
I'm still waiting for his "You told me so" after he dissed me for saying Gomez would play in the 6 role against Forest ...
 
I can’t decide whether Dreamie is running the most impressive anti-jinx campaign ever seen and will demand we suck his toes as compensation, or getting desperate for us to lose so as he can fill his “I told you so” cup to the brim, since Ange made it run a bit dry of late.
It’s an even worse when you realise my toes are webbed!
 
It hasn't really been insane though I don't think.

Since we lost at Arsenal it's been 6 wins in all competitions, but the four league games were against teams close to the bottom.

Then there was also a Championship side in the FA Cup.

What we have done is win games that we should be always winning. Okay, so injuries have meant we have had to use squad players, but aside from MAYBE the league cup final, we were still favourites to win all of those games.

What has happened is that they have all come at once and in a rare bit of luck they have come at a time when we have had injuries and could afford to play the squad players and get away with it.

What I will agree with though is that winning all of our remaining games would be a challenge, but it will be a challenge for City and Arsenal too.
True but neither have as many games as us or as many injuries. So we are much less likely.
 
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