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UK General Election 24/25

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MomoWASright said:
I’d love that weapon to finish runner up in whatever back end constituency he’s running in.
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Clacton

Independant:

Based on local projections from Electoral Calculus, Mr Farage is now the frontrunner with 39 per cent of the vote, ahead of Labour in a surprise second place with 27.6 per cent, and the Tories in third on 25.3 per cent.
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dee said:
I *think* (and this is by inference from Farage's spiel) it's because they accept they won't win this election, they are aiming for 2029. So this is not a manifesto for government. However, it could be anything really!
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These are the questions he should be asked when he’s on screen. It would happen to any of the other parties. He gets to get away with blaming brown people for everything and then left alone.

I don’t see any hope for them in 2029 either. More and more gammons die fewer and fewer reformers about.
 
dee said:
They are the only ones that are up for removing IR35 regulation. Thanks to Truss not one of the major parties want to go back there*

On the 'Contract' I do love that they balance all of their pledges by saying the Government wastes £50Bn/year and so that sorts it. They should hire a bus and paint that on the side

*accepted the LD deputy leader said they would 'push for a review'
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What's IR35 regulation?

Farage apparently said that he wasn't going to stand as he didn't want to have to go to Clacton every week...
 
“The last time I heard him make reference to Clacton, he was saying that he didn’t want to spend every Friday in Clacton,” Mr Cleverly told Sky News.
 
Athens said:
What's IR35 regulation?
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It's a stupid name (actually the id number of the press release announcing the policy would you believe!) for off payroll working tax regulation. Or in other words self employed tax regulations
 
dee said:
Sacking people I assume - He said they were never in the office anyway
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Which is great in theory. Till you realise the pay bill to do that. You may as well keep them on and get some worth out of them.
 
dee said:
It's a stupid name (actually the id number of the press release announcing the policy would you believe!) for off payroll working tax regulation. Or in other words self employed tax regulations
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It’ll be abused more to get round zero hour contracts.
 
MomoWASright said:
It’ll be abused more to get round zero hour contracts.
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Not clear on how the two are linked.

The purpose of the government changes to Off-Payroll Working Tax ("IR35") introduced in 1997 and amended in 2017/2022 was to force self-employed people to be taxed on-payroll (PAYE) instead of via their company. This meant self employed people losing the flexibility of how they operated whilst concurrently paying PAYE without gaining the benefits to balance (Statutory sick pay, holiday, pensions etc). It also meant paying a portion of their income to one of the many, many umbrella companies who thought Christmas had come early to run the PAYE for them.
 
If repealed I would predict more people would be pushed down the self employed route despite being employed. Which would remove some protections on the lowest earning people in the country whilst improving the bottom line of those businesses who wouldn’t have to pay NICs, pension, etc.
 
MomoWASright said:
If repealed I would predict more people would be pushed down the self employed route despite being employed. Which would remove some protections on the lowest earning people in the country whilst improving the bottom line of those businesses who wouldn’t have to pay NICs, pension, etc.
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Ahh got you. I'm not interested in the repeal of the original. I am looking for them to re-wind to the original position pre-2017 amendment
 
Richey said:
Although I think Farage sadly might win in Clacton, Electoral Calculus is not the best seat prediction site.

The MRP polls that are done by the main pollsters tend to be better.
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Good to know. I saw the Indy quote them and so assumed they'd know their onions
 
dee said:
Not clear on how the two are linked.

The purpose of the government changes to Off-Payroll Working Tax ("IR35") introduced in 1997 and amended in 2017/2022 was to force self-employed people to be taxed on-payroll (PAYE) instead of via their company. This meant self employed people losing the flexibility of how they operated whilst concurrently paying PAYE without gaining the benefits to balance (Statutory sick pay, holiday, pensions etc). It also meant paying a portion of their income to one of the many, many umbrella companies who thought Christmas had come early to run the PAYE for them.
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From memory if you fall within IR35, you should be entitled to the same staff benefits as those on PAYE.

Wasn't that one of the reasons it was brought in.. and companies constantly refreshing their contractors to get around it?
 
The Nomad said:
From memory if you fall within IR35, you should be entitled to the same staff benefits as those on PAYE.

Wasn't that one of the reasons it was brought in.. and companies constantly refreshing their contractors to get around it?
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That'd be nice. No.

When in 2022 the party responsible for determination switched to the final client many, especially in the finance industry, decided to either ditch all contractors or force a blanket determination of 'inside' to ensure no liability fell on them.
 
dee said:
That'd be nice. No.

When in 2022 the party responsible for determination switched to the final client many, especially in the finance industry, decided to either ditch all contractors or force a blanket determination of 'inside' to ensure no liability fell on them.
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Fair enough. I've always been too risk adverse to do contracting.
 
dee said:
How the fuck you think he got his 'Sir' - they don't grow on trees they develop as deals inside shady big brown envelopes
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Head of government departments tend to get them. Become Director General at HMRC and get knighted inside 2 years.
 
Rishi Sunak is predicted to become the first sitting prime minister ever to lose their seat at a general election.

The Conservatives are also on track to slump to just 53 seats, with around three-quarters of the Cabinet voted out, a major opinion poll for The Telegraph has revealed.

The Liberal Democrats are on course to be just behind the Tories on 50 MPs, according to the Savanta and Electoral Calculus polling analysis, leaving them in touching distance of becoming the official opposition.
 
MomoWASright said:
Rishi Sunak is predicted to become the first sitting prime minister ever to lose their seat at a general election.

The Conservatives are also on track to slump to just 53 seats, with around three-quarters of the Cabinet voted out, a major opinion poll for The Telegraph has revealed.

The Liberal Democrats are on course to be just behind the Tories on 50 MPs, according to the Savanta and Electoral Calculus polling analysis, leaving them in touching distance of becoming the official opposition.
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Looks like we need to see Sunak running a Takeshi castle style gauntlet to improve his ratings.
 
MomoWASright said:
Rishi Sunak is predicted to become the first sitting prime minister ever to lose their seat at a general election.

The Conservatives are also on track to slump to just 53 seats, with around three-quarters of the Cabinet voted out, a major opinion poll for The Telegraph has revealed.

The Liberal Democrats are on course to be just behind the Tories on 50 MPs, according to the Savanta and Electoral Calculus polling analysis, leaving them in touching distance of becoming the official opposition.
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Blatant scare tactics to get wavering reform voters to vote Tory
 
Looks like all of sunaks internal team made bets on a July elections.
One of his close protection team now arrested after the advisor admitted making a mistake when he put on a bet.

Shambles really
 
Atlas said:
Looks like all of sunaks internal team made bets on a July elections.
One of his close protection team now arrested after the advisor admitted making a mistake when he put on a bet.

Shambles really
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Went each way?
 
Atlas said:
RE earlier discussions on the left should just vote labour.


View: https://x.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1803182487872360592

Kier has taken the left out of the party and now matched the values and views of the billionaire who gave money to tories at the last election.
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The rebuttal to that is, don’t vote Labour and then don’t complain about who ends up in power.

When was the last left leaning government in the UK? I’m 52 and can’t remember one - Wilson in the 70’s probably - but that really before I’d have any engagement with politics - I remember Michael Foot getting soundly thrashed.

I mean, I get it, he’s a bit to the right for many people but he’s also right about whether you want to be a party of protest or a party in power.

By all means, vote tactically - I’d be inclined to vote Lib Dems if I was voting in a constituency they were standing - I voted for a independent candidate last time I voted - there really wasn’t much choice in East Antrim.
 
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